A Fading Flickr? Take Two

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Apparently i stirred up a hornet’s nest with my previous post on Flickr. Paul K, basically thinks I am wrong about this, and so do a whole bunch of other people. Anil IM-ed and said as much. Well, again missing the point here – I wasn’t talking about the virtues of Flickr. Instead, I was talking about * the selling opportunity. * Did they miss that? As the service grows, which it will, the complexity of their infrastructure is only going to increase. The complexity of the network increases n-square times, as it grows. How will the community react if infrastructure buckles under the load? In other words they will have to spend money on bulking it up, which means they will need to raise money, and dilute their stake and you know the rest. Actually the best reason of my original post is found in PK’s comments:

Kenny Rogers song says, you got to know when to hold’em, know when to fold’em. See: Friendster.

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Om Malik

Some people see what they want to see, Om. You made a good point regarding a possible peak in the fetching price for flickr. Unfortunately, observers’/users’ emotions get the best of them (cult of…) and they take any comments that hint of negativity (nee objectivity/reality) as an affront to their support of said company. Happens all the time.

That said, flickr will sell out. Why hold on long-term? Picasa? Gone in just a few years. Hotmail? Ditto. I give Vonage 2 more years and they’re out. Can’t see holding on when there is much personal gain staring you in the face.

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