As the Broadband Market Slows

Want to see Moore’s Claw at work? Look no further than the broadband equipment business, which is in cyclical decline despite a sharp increase in the total number of broadband users, fancy new applications and in general, a thirst for bandwidth. Synergy Research Group forecasts that the equipment demand for broadband is going to decline 1.3% every year through 2009 to $5.2 billion from about $5.9 billion in 2004. Yet at the same time, nearly 12% customer premise devices – DSL modems and Cable modems- will sell every year, as dial-up folks say see ya slow speeds, hello broadband. DSL will continue to evolve to higher speeds in Europe, where copper loops are new, and central offices are closer to consumer homes. In Asia VDSL will propel demand, but in US unless fiber really kicks in, things could get tricky for DSL gear makers.

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