Can this be true? Like Gilder, Optical is back!


In the wake of the telecom bust, if there is one market that has taken it on the chin, then it is the long haul optical gear market. Nortel, Lucent, Ciena and Sycamore Networks – all were rocked by a market that literally vanished into the deep dark sea. However, now there are signs of life in this market, according to Probe Research of Cedar Knolls, New Jersey. In a report the research group says that “as carriers begin to recover from the recent glut of capacity, growth will be spurred in the long haul optical equipment market,” and would be worth $3.2 billion by 2008.

bq. “Long haul networks have been overbuilt and still suffer from unused capacity,” comments Probe Vice President Maria Zeppetella. “However, as we approach 2006, many incumbent long haul networks will reach their capacity limitations and will require upgrades with new systems.”

He is looking for a compound annual growth rate of about 5.3%. This could mean some respite for the likes of Ciena and Sycamore. Cisco also might pick-up bits and pieces of the business, as it has tried to get cozier the incumbents. Who knows, Chambers & Company could loosen their purse strings and buy a long haul equipment vendor. That Pirelli stuff they bought could not last long, I am sure.

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