Most of what Hachenburg thinks will come to pass is pretty boring — YouTube will be the top video ad network, advertisers will realize young people aren’t watching TV, etc. — but somewhere along the line he comes up with this:

“Everyone’s talking about Hulu’s IPO next year, but I think the big news next year is that Hulu is going to abort its IPO. The reason it’s going to abort is that you have three networks that are all going to have different interests in mind, and you have Comcast entering the space. The likely outcome is Comcast is going to buy Hulu before the IPO happens.”

While we agree Hulu has a potentially complicated future ahead — and could, in fact, pass on an IPO — the suggestion that Comcast would purchase Hulu seems a bit problematic, for a number of reasons. For one thing, Comcast is fighting against regulatory scrutiny of its plan to merge its cable networks with NBC Universal.

Some critics of the deal have questioned the effect that a Comcast-NBC combination would have on the future of online video, and some have even suggested that certain restrictions are placed on Comcast before the deal is allowed to go through. That could include NBC having to give up its stake in Hulu, for instance, or requiring the new entity to ensure its content will be available online to competing pay TV operators. The last thing Comcast wants to do right now is rock the boat or appear to have too much of an interest in controlling the emerging online video ecosystem.

As for Hulu’s IPO: It’s clear the online video company has ambitions to go public, but those plans will be dependent in part on its ability to strike deals with its broadcast content partners, who just happen to also be its major stakeholders. According to reports, Hulu’s broadcast content deals end next year, so its independence will rely on locking down their content for some time. But as Hachenberg alludes, NBC, Fox and ABC all have differing opinions on the value of Hulu and their own plans for their content going forward.

Hulu has declined comment, with a spokesperson saying the company doesn’t talk about its capital plans. Comcast, meanwhile, couldn’t be reached. As for Hachenburg, we’ve reached out for more context for why he thinks Hulu will be acquired by Comcast, and will update this post when we hear back.

Updated: And here’s Hachenburg’s response for clarification:

“The core issue is that Hulu is first and foremost about free TV, while Comcast is the single largest advocate of pay TV – as illustrated by its commitment to its TV Everywhere initiative (Xfinity). With the NBC Universal acquisition, Comcast is now an owner of the leading free TV provider in the market. It’s hard to imagine that Comcast would have entered the Hulu joint venture at its inception, but this is now where they find themselves. So they’ll need an elegant solution – such as buying Hulu outright – to put the issue to bed.

Additionally, the reality is the three broadcast TV networks behind Hulu have been surprised by Hulu’s success and now face the prospect of being long-term partners with their rival networks. If Hulu become beholden to its public shareholders, the networks would lose much of their control – which has to be scary for them.

Of course, Hulu does have a single private investor, who most likely would like to see an exit path for Hulu. A Comcast buyout is a win-win-win.”

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Metacafe received 12.26 million people in July 2010, according to comScore. According to the press release, the inclusion of Go211′s traffic will increase that number to nearly 17.5 million.

This deal follows Metacafe’s recent launch of a vertical for movies as well as an expanded gaming section, indicating the site’s move towards editorially driven content with proven audiences and its move away from user-generated content — UGC content that it was offering payment for until May 2009.

According to the release, Go211.com will continue to operate as a distinct destination, and members of the Go211 team will join the site, including former Action Sports CEO Sean Aruda, who will become Metacafe’s Chief Revenue Officer. The site’s production team will not only bring more original content to Metacafe’s other video verticals, but will also contribute their expertise in live-streamed event coverage.

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Most of that growth comes from younger users, as 85 percent of males aged 18-24 and two-thirds of all respondents aged 18-34 said they watched online video weekly. As the behavior becomes even more mainstream, Magid estimates that the amount of time viewers spend watching video online will increase by about 5 percent over the next year.

There’s evidence that users are becoming more interested in viewing online video in the same way that they watch TV. About 38 percent of online video viewers say they are interested or very interested in connecting a computer to their TV to watch online video. And while short-form video still rules, whether it be user-generated clips, movie trailers or clips of TV or movie content, about 76 percent of those who watch video online say they are tuning in to professionally produced content regularly.

But online video viewers, for the most part, say their over-the-top video habit is not interfering with their normal TV watching. Only 14 percent of users said they watched less TV due to watching content online. About 72 percent said they watched the same amount of TV despite also watching video online — and another 10 percent said they watched more TV.

One of the big questions about online video is the consumer tolerance of online video ads, particularly as more ad dollars are entering the segment and video publishers seek to monetize their video assets. According to the survey, 48 percent of respondents said they found ads online to be as acceptable as those in TV shows — and 7 percent said online video ads were more acceptable.

Photo courtesy of (CC-BY-SA) Flickr user tnarik.

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For the movies site, Metacafe poached talent from Netflix and Rotten Tomatoes to help build a store of curated movie content. Unique content that is available on the Metacafe Movies site includes a 3-D showcase, exclusive features like behind-the-scenes clips and restricted “redband” trailers. The movies section will also launch with an HD movie trailers section and a guide to blockbuster films expected this summer.

For Metacafe, part of the goal is to increase the movie marketing dollars that the site receives from Hollywood studios. The company has already grown advertising from movie-related content by 70 percent over the past year, and it hopes to accelerate that growth with even more focused content.

Film buffs are just the first group that Metacafe hopes to reel in with new editorial teams and exclusive content, with plans to launch a dedicated channel for video game content next.

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CNET reports that Microsoft is looking to transform Soapbox from a limp UGC free-for-all to a site where bloggers and citizen journalists can post videos relevant to categories like lifestyle, entertainment and finance, three areas Microsoft focuses on. But the future of the video site isn’t certain. Microsoft Vice President Erik Jorgensen told CNET, “We haven’t decided whether you just continue to support it or whether it is too expensive and out of our focus to do.”

YouTube continues to dominate the user-generated space, and has gobbled up such a huge chunk of the market that much of its early competition has thrown in the towel. Microsoft is just the latest in a string of competitors to scale back on or get out of the UGC game entirely. AOL stopped supporting user uploads last year. Last month, Crackle (formerly Grouper) cut off its user upload program and Metacafe killed its Producer Reward program. Both of those sites now have more of an emphasis on professionally produced content.

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In a corporate blog post, Metacafe said:

While we have worked to maintain the Producer Rewards program during the past year, we are now faced with a market environment that requires us to focus on profitability in the near term and are not in the position to continue to subsidize the program.

The move to halt payment for UGC isn’t surprising. In October of last year, the site chopped producer payments by more than half to just $2 for every 1,000 views that came from within the United States.

Additionally, the site has recently shifted to focus more on premium content, creating hubs for movie trailers, music videos, and sports highlights. Metacafe will still accept work from independent creators — they just won’t be getting paid.

Unfortunately, Metacafe couldn’t have picked a worse time to venture into the world of premium content. Hulu has content from ABC, NBC, and FOX locked up for the next two years. YouTube is making its own premium content moves with Disney clips, movies and TV shows from Sony, and music from Universal. Not to mention big media companies like CBS, Warner Bros. and Comcast all have their own premium content initiatives.

Metacafe still has a sizable audience. Quantcast pegs the site’s global traffic at a little more than 43.2 million people per month, but of those, only 12.7 million come from the U.S. Even with nice-sized traffic, Metacafe faces many deep-pocketed players that have massive traditional media outlets for promotion.

Metacafe has raised $45 million in funding and, according to a spokesperson, is not actively seeking additional financing at this time. We learned today that in addition to the 6 percent to 8 percent layoffs at its Tel Aviv office last spring, Metacafe went through an additional round of layoffs in that same office late last year. The Metacafe rep didn’t have the specific number, but said it was “under 10 percent” of the total number of Metacafe employees, which at last known count was 75.

Back in 2006, when the online video boom really started taking off, Metacafe, along with Revver and AtomFilms (disclosure: I used to work there), were among a handful of independent video sites paying creators. Metacafe has now halted its payment program; Revver was bought at a loss and has since faded even more; and AtomFilms was bought by Viacom though still continues its payment program. Ironically, YouTube, which built its massive audience by paying creators nothing, later implemented its own partner payment program.

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Additionally, Metacafe now explicitly excludes views from outside the U.S. from counting toward those producer rewards. So producers will only get that two bucks when 1,000 views from within the U.S. are reached. These new payment terms start Nov. 1 and will affect both new and existing program participants.

Echoing (almost the exactly) the words on the blog post, Michelle Cox, Metacafe’s communication director, told me in a phone interview, “The change is all about better aligning the program costs with our revenues. We are continuing to make sure that we are running the business in a prudent fashion.” Cox also said that Metacafe had been subsidizing the Producer Reward program quite heavily up until this change.

Metacafe’s newly minted focus on the U.S. is similar to an unpopular move made by Veoh earlier this year, when it blocked all but 33 countries from viewing its site. “Generally speaking, the advertisers that we are working with run U.S. specific campaigns,” said Cox. Translation: You good folks in France running up a video’s numbers aren’t really helping us earn money.

Cox says the company has paid out $1.5 million dollars to almost a thousand creators since the company launched the Producer Rewards program two years ago.

Metacafe employs 75 people across offices in Palo Alto, New York, L.A. and Tel Aviv. The company laid off 6 – 8 percent of its staff in Tel Aviv in the spring but hasn’t made layoffs since, according to Cox. In April of this year, both Metacafe founders, neither of which were involved in the day-to-day operations cashed out their shares in the company and left. (CORRECTION: Founder and chief creative officer Eyal Hertzog is still with the company)

The company has raised $45 million in funding, including a $30 million round it took in August of 2007. Cox says Metacafe is currently not seeking additional funding.

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The grand prize winner will receive $5,000 cash, and there will be a $2,000 cash prize for the “short-short” winner with the best film three minutes or less. Select films will be featured online at Metacafe for six months as well as be a part of the live, offline component with theatrical screenings in San Francisco as well as 60 to 80 other locations across the U.S. and Europe.

Online TV service Babelgum recently concluded its online film fest and announced its winners at Cannes.

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The contest is being put on by Klondike, and has a final deadline of July 31. Yadda yadda you waive all your rights if you enter. They’re also giving away $25,000 for watching and rating videos. Basically, these people are throwing cash around — might be worth a look.

The Lonely Island guys — who are also helping judge the contest — created a example to get you inspired:

The Phone Call – More amazing videos are a click away

NTV Moneymaker is an irregular feature in which we showcase a way to make a living with your video skills.

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Co-founders Arik Czerniak and Ofer Adler each reportedly held a fully vested 2.5 percent of Metacafe, which was valued at $50 million for the purposes of the transaction. They are no longer involved with the company.

Even at the time, in December of 2006, it seemed like a rumored tentative offer from Yahoo (we had heard anywhere from $200 to $700 million) was the best Metacafe was going to get. But the company held out, and acquisition talks fell apart.

A few months later, a new CEO was hired, and by last summer, the company had raised expectations again by collecting another $30 million in venture capital. It was at that time Metacafe said Czerniak would no longer have an operating role.

Here’s a time capsule from last February, when we wrote about Metacafe hiring its current CEO Erick Hachenburg.

Now is the time to sell a video-aggregating startup. Scuttlebutt says the window is closing, with companies like eBaum’s World failing to find a buyer despite their efforts. Many had thought the window was already good and shut, unless Metacafe could close its much-rumored acquisition by Yahoo or someone else. Valuations appear to be getting lower even if traffic isn’t headed south, what with lawsuits and maneuvering by the GooTube juggernaut.

Hachenburg told us a few months ago that the way Metacafe differentiates itself from other video aggregators is its singular focus on user-generated content. The site has an active revenue-sharing scheme with its creators. Its traffic is growing, but not by much.

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Hollywood Divided Over Net Neutrality; WGA president testifies before Congress to keep the Internet open, but studios want broadband providers to fight piracy. (Variety)

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