Comments on: NTV Predictions: Who Will Fail?

By: James Gardiner

James Gardiner — Sun, 30 Dec 2007 12:03:47 +0000

I think your asking the wrong question here.
Its more along the lines of:
How will the industry change, and who of the major incumbent players are going to fail first.
I think this is a much more interesting question.

By: Jake Laughlin

Jake Laughlin — Sun, 30 Dec 2007 05:01:58 +0000

My take on the subject is that the niche players will prevail. At the end of the day, most of the UGC sites out there are full of useless crap. That is, those that don’t require some level of sophistication in terms of submitted content. Otherwise, when I want to see someone stick a firecracker up his….er….where it doesn’t belong…I’ll resort to YouTube or ebaumsworld or the like. Yes, there are millions of people watching that stuff and it’s probably generating insane amounts of ad revenue…but it’s still sub-par, in my opinion. Stick to your guns…raise the bar in terms of UGC…and I think you’ll be just fine….

By: dennis miller

dennis miller — Sun, 30 Dec 2007 03:35:57 +0000

George will struggle between nbc and newscorps' needs to demonstrate that they can play in the new world. To date, Hulu would be a third tier website for reruns that people on the web don't care about

By: dennis miller

dennis miller — Sun, 30 Dec 2007 03:34:01 +0000

unfortunately for the larger media companies, history suggests that they will not succeed at figuring out how to thrive in the new medium. Wrong financial structure, wrong emphasis on expensive linear programming, wrong culture. Ask Ted Turner, and Chad Hurley, and others. There is great opportunity for low cost, highly targeted, web dna certified programming that provides what the linear channels cannot--- a resonant sense to their consumer that they are getting content they like and need and can share. D

By: Brian Andrews

Brian Andrews — Sun, 30 Dec 2007 01:01:05 +0000

I really wonder what Mr. Kliavkoff's idea of "differentiated premium content" is...soon the net will be no different than FM radio with "Hot 97", "Mix 102" and "Fresh 95" in every market. Do I really need 10 different ways to watch the 10 different Law & Orders that NBCU produces?

Niche content has a home on the web. You don't need massive numbers to survive and thrive. With the global nature and low hosting and bandwidth charges a niche provider can make it. (Or at least we are going to try...)

By: Angela Wilson Gyetvan

Angela Wilson Gyetvan — Sat, 29 Dec 2007 23:17:34 +0000

Nice roundup, Liz. I know you didn’t ask anyone from Revver to prognosticate, but here I go: The one thing I’ve learned from my time on the “Internets” is that things change, and then change again (Yahoo!, anyone?), and that any predictions regarding the ultimate form of this very nascent marketplace need to be heavily handicapped. I think that, in 2008, the pressures between spreadable culture and intellectual property are going to make copyright an even bigger flash point; I also think that the market is going to realize that algorithms aren’t very good at managing entertainment content — real people need to be involved. The companies who understand that will survive the maelstrom — Revver included. Please visit the Revver blog for the latest exciting developments at Revver.

By: Justin Davey

Justin Davey — Sat, 29 Dec 2007 15:51:29 +0000

I really like Kliavkoff's statement. It seems to be a pretty good description of Hulu. I guess it could be argued they have "massive scale", but the only networking effect they've enjoyed has been the predominantly negative coverage of the blogosphere.

By: Tim Street

Tim Street — Sat, 29 Dec 2007 15:07:09 +0000

How many YouTube killers are there now?

By: Frank Sinton

Frank Sinton — Sat, 29 Dec 2007 08:44:39 +0000

There are enough eyeballs for the top 10 video hosting sites to sustain for a while.

I worry about the many niche sites that have launched over the past year. Even though content verticals is very popular right now, the audiences for these niche sites aren't at a sustainable level yet and probably won't be for another year or two.