I believe that the distributors/aggregators are going to be the biggest winners. Companies like Brightcove that allow any size content producer to monetize their content online provide a great platform (I use it).

I also see where merchandise will be huge, and will happen in less than 4 years (witness the Zazzle/MySpace deal). Fans of bands will buy the stuff and the cumulative numbers will be great.

If you control the distribution and promotion, you are in a great position. Owning the content as well only makes it even better, especially if you didn’t pay to produce the content.

Just weighing in with some comments:

“I think that social networks that really connect with users are going to win… I view content as middleware” -George Zachary

I think he is bang on the money.

My view is that social networks are already realising this. Bebo’s announcement of Open Media yesterday proves they are already moving in this direction.

However, I disagree with Zachary’s assertion that “the money will be made around the content, in merchandising”.

Yes, maybe in four or five years time but not just yet.

We are still in the first phase of large scale video distribution online. There is more content yet to come from TV companies around the world (read: outside the US) and much of it will be provided free to the viewer.

The social networks that effectively engage users around video content will see increased advertising sales as they ramp up user engagement.

Companies that enable one stop large scale digital distribution for content owners online should also do well.

There’s more here:
http://tinyurl.com/ytggtu