Now doo is coming out of beta on OS X today and, over the next few weeks, on Android, then iPhone, then iPad (a refreshed Windows 8 app will follow in the next couple of months). And, while the end result is similar to that in the beta, it’s quite a different beast under the hood.

Why? As CEO Frank Thelen told me, the future may be all about semantic tagging, but for now people still love their folders:

“The beta period was a very tough time for us. We learned that people are not willing to put their documents into a library like iTunes. We had to change the product in a way that people can keep their existing folder structures, and we’re just a smart overlay. Basically we had to change the whole architecture.”

So, while the beta version involved wholesale importation of documents, the new overlay approach involves just pointing doo to existing folders and letting it do its semantic thing, namely optical character recognition, smart auto-tagging of people, sources and places, and categorization — doo can recognize and classify 70 different types of document, from contracts to tickets. In the beta, if you opened a document it would open in doo; now it will open in the service it’s stored in, such as DropBox.

Essentially, doo has morphed from a well-organized document repository into a cross-service search engine for consumer and small-business cloud storage. That in no way diminishes what it does — it’s super-valuable to have a tool that can return useful data when asked to, for example, find all invoices stored in the last 30 days. Additionally, Thelen said, improvements to doo’s syncing capabilities mean it can always detect when a file is stored multiple times across different services, and always serve up the most recent iteration.

You can also scan documents straight into doo, or even photograph them in via smartphone. But, for now at least, the main value for most people will be in its management of existing documents across DropBox and so on. It’s like a smarter alternative to Found (which was in any case acquired by YouSendIt last month).

By the way, for those of you who want to run doo on a Windows 7 PC, you may have a wait in store for you. While it will come at some point, Thelen said, the doo team hasn’t even started working on it yet.

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It has been 17 years since the general public was genuinely excited by a new version of Windows: people actually lined up to buy Windows 95 like it was the iPhone or something. Years of meandering followed: Windows ME was a joke, Windows XP was an updated but essentially similar experience to Windows 95, Windows Vista was an attempt to correct XP’s security issues but turned into a joke of its own, and Windows 7 was what Vista should have been yet failed to inspire. In the meantime, Apple and Google captured the attention of software developers and the public with mobile computers built around iOS and Android.

But Windows 8 is going to be different. Tomorrow morning in Barcelona (at a telecom industry conference, of all things) Microsoft is going to unveil the Consumer Preview Edition of Windows 8, and if it arrives on schedule and without incident later this year, it could accelerate the world’s transition toward a mobile-first vision of general purpose computing.

Windows 8 is a huge development for Microsoft in several ways:

• The Windows user experience has been radically overhauled with the Metro user interface, which has been a critically acclaimed (if not revenue-generating) part of the Windows Phone design. Metro will be unfamiliar to the millions raised on the concept of the “Start” button (now the Windows logo button on Windows 7) in the lower left-hand corner of the screen, but it allows Microsoft to embrace a new era of computing that is more and more about the touch screen.
• Microsoft developed a version of Windows 8 for ARM processors, a chip brand unfamiliar to most average computer users but which is at the heart of nearly every single smartphone and tablet sold over the last several years. Even though Intel seems to have finally gotten its act together in the power-sensitive mobile space, ARM is an industry standard for mobile processing and will allow PC companies like HP to build power-efficient tablets in hopes of competing with the iPad.
• Microsoft has always had a big problem: introducing radical new changes in Windows breaks a lot of business applications that were built for previous versions, which has led the company to move slowly through transitional periods. Windows 8 represents one of the biggest leaps forward for mainstream Windows developers in what seems like forever, but Microsoft had no choice but to include a “Desktop” user interface version of Windows 8 that will run old applications. The transition between Metro and Desktop could be jarring, and conservative support for Metro may not expose as many Windows 8 users as possible to the best parts of Windows 8.
• Applications written for the Metro user interface will be sold through the Windows Store, as opposed to the more traditional shrink-wrapped or downloadable software sold for Windows. Sharing revenue with Microsoft will be a new experience for the Windows development community, although it’s established practice for iOS developers and Microsoft will actually take a smaller cut than Apple once an app’s revenue passes $25,000.

The traditional PC isn’t going anywhere just yet, but just ask HP and Dell: nor is it in good shape. Wednesday could be the first day when we realize whether or not Windows 8 can be a product that allows the traditional PC industry to refocus itself around both traditional PCs in lighter forms as well as iPad competitors.

The stakes for Microsoft are enormous. The company largely subsists on two cash cows: Windows and Office, and Windows sales are under pressure with the slow decline of the PC market.

But there’s also an existential crisis at hand for Microsoft. It defined personal computing in the years after Apple lost its way in the 1980s, and now that Apple is very much back in that role Microsoft desperately wants to remind the world that it is capable of setting a new bar for personal computing.

After getting a few glimpses of Windows 8, the tech industry started wondering if Microsoft has finally come up with something unique. Come Wednesday, when enthusiasts can begin to put the software through the paces, we’ll start to get a better idea of whether Microsoft is ready for a new era.

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I like to review these predictions because they help keep me honest with readers, but also because the exercise reminds me to be humble in my writing for the upcoming year: Mobile technology is moving so quickly I’ll never bat a thousand. Here’s a look back at what I wrote nearly one year ago to the day, along with evaluation of the effort.

iOS and Android

• “I do believe (and have since earlier this year) that a Verizon iPhone will at the very least, be announced in January. And it’s an even money bet that the iPad will gain the rumored cameras required for FaceTime, too.” — These weren’t too difficult to see coming, but I called them correctly.
• “ iOS will likely see improved notifications in iOS version 5.” — Another winner here, and one of the reasons I actually bought an iPhone in 2011 after abandoning my old iPhone 3GS for Android devices. I’ve always preferred the Android notification method, and Apple improved upon it. Android 4.0 brings back parity in this area.
• “Thanks to more robust mobile broadband options, I expect Apple to offer iTunes music streaming in 2011.” — I was close, but not quite right. Apple did move iTunes libraries to the cloud, but mainly to store music files, not to stream your library in the traditional sense.
• “Android phones will come closer to rivaling the user experience of Apple iOS devices, but they’ll still fall short. It won’t matter in terms of platform market share, and more developers will code for both iOS and Android, with a greater emphasis on Google’s platform if pressed to choose just one.” — I’ll call this one partly right, as Android 4.0 does rival iOS, depending on who you ask and their personal preferences. Developers are mainly focusing on iOS and Google, but more are attracted to the better monetization offered by iOS, even though Google is ahead in market share.
• “Google will design one stock Android handset for Verizon’s LTE network.” — This was perhaps my most spot-on prediction: The Samsung Galaxy Nexus for Verizon is a flagship LTE phone that’s exclusive to the carrier in the U.S. But I’m still happier that I went with an unlocked GSM Galaxy Nexus from overseas: It removes the carrier control from my handset and gives it to me instead.
• “Motorola Mobility will have a solid first year due to Android phones and tablets, but won’t see huge growth until it can gain additional large carrier partners and the backing they provide.” — Motorola didn’t gain a large carrier partner, but it did win serious backing when Google announced intent to purchase the company. Still, I was wrong on this one and didn’t see the Google purchase as a possibility.
• “The iPad will continue to sell in record numbers next year, but the combined sales of Android tablets will be close behind at the end of 2011. Consumers will still pass up Microsoft Windows 7 tablets.” — The iPad still dominates tablet sales, and by most measures, Android isn’t close behind yet. That could change with Android 4.0 tablets, but I thought we’d see them by now. Microsoft Windows 7 tablets are selling as well as prior Windows tablets — as in not very.

Intel, HP, Nokia and Microsoft

• “Intel will finally deliver on its Atom effort and get the chip in a few phones, but none will be blockbuster successes. While Android can be ported to Intel’s x86 chip architecture, few will tackle the effort because of investments in ARM technology.” — It was another year of missed opportunity for Intel, as I was wrong on timing this one. In 2012, Intel expects to enter the smartphone game with new silicon.
• “Intel’s best showing will be in Nokia MeeGo devices (more on that below). Even with a few available products, the gap between Intel- and ARM-powered handsets and tablets will continue to widen.” — When you don’t have much showing, there really can’t be a “best” showing for Intel. And ARM continues to rule the roost when it comes to mobile chip architecture in successful products.
• “HP will debut a half-dozen new webOS products: mostly phones, but at least one tablet too. Even though I expect a compelling interface and feature set, webOS still won’t see a market share higher than 6 percent in 2011 as developer mindshare is focused on Android and iOS.” — The biggest fail on my list as webOS is effectively dead and gone, having been handed down to the open-source community: a damn shame.
• “Microsoft’s Kinect product will keep the Xbox a leading platform and the device will continue to be used for various interface hacks” — The Xbox 360 continued to be the top-selling console month after month this year. And there has been no lack of Kinect-powered interface hacks demonstrated, including robots that use the Kinect for vision.
• “Microsoft will officially support the device in an update to Windows 7, and my son will still not be able to beat me in a Kinect game.” — Microsoft added Windows 7 support for Kinect in June. and my son has yet to beat me in a Kinect game. I’m getting older by the minute though, so I may not be able to replicate this feat in 2012.
• “Nokia’s smartphone market share will stabilize, but not grow beyond 40 percent as cheaper Android phones will flood the market by the second half of the year. The company will continue to tout MeeGo, which will become available in the form of six devices in 2011.” — Even with my own lowered expectations for Nokia, the company — and its smartphone market share — crumbled in 2011, in hopes of rebuilding its future. MeeGo has been abandoned as a strategy, so I blew this one big time.
• “There will be talk of Microsoft buying Nokia, but it won’t happen. Windows Phone 7 on a Nokia device might, however, as a short-term trial strategy for both parties.” — Microsoft hasn’t officially bought Nokia, but it did pay the company more a billion dollars to use Windows Phone going forward.
• “Microsoft will demonstrate a lighter, touch-optimized platform for tablets by mid-2011 and follow up with products near the end of the year. Research In Motion’s PlayBook will gain enterprise customers in 2011, but businesses will adopt the iPad, and possibly even Android tablets, far more heavily.” — Microsoft has demonstrated a Metro interface that will be used tablets, but products aren’t yet available. Businesses are favoring iOS and Android tablets over the PlayBook.

Samsung

• “Samsung will continue to leverage the Galaxy brand and approach with fewer new smartphone models in 2011. Instead, the company will take the lesson learned from 2010: Design one base handset and tweak slightly for carrier customization. The company will sell 17 million or more such handsets as a result. — The Galaxy S II is that phone, and as of September, sold 10 million units. That was prior to the handset arriving on three of the big four U.S. carriers, so I think I did well on the prediction.
• “I expect 5 million Samsung tablets to sell next year, both in 7-inch and 10-inch sizes. And while Apple will continue its digital audio player dominance, Samsung will grab a 5-percent chunk of the market currently held by Apple’s iPod, even more if Google Music is available in dozens of countries.” — Again, it’s difficult to find tablet sales data by manufacturer, but IDC suggests Samsung sold 1 million tablets in the third quarter, so I suspect my figure of 5 million for the year is high, pending holiday sales. Samsung was late to market with its Android-based iPod touch competitors, so I’m considering my 5 percent prediction to be wrong.

Chips, carriers and other tech topics

• “Although phones with dual-core processors will debut in early 2011, more than 25 percent of smartphones sold by the end of the year will use dual-core chips.” — I haven’t seen data specific to smartphone sales by the number of processing cores, but I suspect I got this right. Perhaps I even underestimated the number of dual-core smartphone sales when you look at the models that use them: Apple’s iPhone 4S, Samsung’s Galaxy S II, Motorola’s Razr and many other popular handsets.
• “Smart homes with web-connected automation will slip into mainstream conversation, but near-field communication will still be confusing due to a lack of mobile payment standards.” — Smart home products are gaining momentum but aren’t part of everyday conversation just yet. NFC for mobile payments is still a moving target for the reason I predicted, which is why I took matters into my own hands with Google Wallet.
• “Although U.S. carriers will continue to rely on network offload solutions such as femtocells and more public Wi-Fi zones, at least one carrier will supplement current data plans with a truly metered trial option.” — This prediction was mostly correct until the last phrase, as no U.S. carrier has offered a pay-for-what-you-use data plan.

Overall, I think I fared well, but I’m raising the bar for 2012 because I’d like to have even more accuracy in what to expect. Some of my 2011 predictions may carry over to 2012 because I was off on timing, but I’ll be spending the next day or two focused on my Magic 8 Ball to see what 2012 will bring!

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Some of the design and feature highlights include:

• 1.5 GHz Intel Oak Trail Atom CPU (Z670)
• 2 GB of system RAM
• 16 or 32 GB of flash memory storage
• 802.11 b/g/n Wi-Fi, Bluetooth 2.1 +EDR
• 1.3-megapixel front-facing webcam
• USB port, mini HDMI, microSD card slot
• 1.97 pounds

Unlike other dual-booting devices, the new ViewPad only boots into Microsoft Windows. Android apps run through virtualization technology from Bluestacks, so there’s no need to shut down Windows and boot into the Android operating system. As innovative as the ViewPad 10pro sounds, Viewsonic made a design blunder as I see it: The 10.1-inch capacitive touchscreen uses a lowly 1024×600 resolution, similar to lower-priced netbooks.

Obviously Windows is usable at this resolution on a 10-inch screen, given that netbooks have used that same configuration for a few years now. But at a starting price of $599, it’s a bit of a disappointment. No other hardware was needed to add the Android functionality, so the ViewPad 10pro isn’t really a “two devices in one” when it comes to hardware.

It may be that adding Bluestacks and support for Android apps had something to do with the display resolution choice. The device is using a smartphone version of Android, which generally supports lower resolution screens. But the display decision likely loses far more than it gains. Users of the relatively expensive tablet will suffer in a low-resolution version of Windows and only occasionally reap the benefits of Android on the 10-inch slate.

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• CES 2012: a recap and analysis
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You might have heard commercials for its cloud products on NPR lately; you’ve no doubt seen a frustrated mother on television going “to the cloud” to edit family photos. The Office writer and The Onion contributor Amelie Gillette certainly has. Last week, Microsoft’s cloud TV ad made its way into her Tolerability Index (at a point between “Mildly Irritating” and “Unbearable”), a weekly feature in the A.V. Club section of the iconic humor publication. Gillette’s seeming misunderstanding of what the commercial is trying to sell her — the cloud is not a “representation of how computers work” — got me thinking about how effective mainstream advertisements for high-technology concepts really are.

The Microsoft TV spot in question is strangely vague. Playing at seemingly all times across the channel lineup, the commercial shows a woman sitting at a PC pasting smiling faces onto a photo of her posed, but unruly, husband and children. Somehow, going “to the cloud” makes this all possible, as if she lives in a world where Photoshop doesn’t exist. What Microsoft fails to mention is what it means to go to the cloud: the photo-editing application resides on a server far, far away. If Microsoft’s target demographic is middle-aged mothers who spend their free time taking family portraits, I think it missed the mark. I don’t think many viewers understand, or care, what the cloud is after having seen this ad.

This isn’t the first time a software vendor has pitched advanced concepts via television. One can rarely watch a golf tournament, for example, without seeing commercials for IBM’s Smarter Planet initiative. In 2005, Oracle took to the airwaves during cable news shows and the NBA Finals to tout its 10g grid computing software. IBM talks about results without mentioning its analytics products, but it’s safe to assume some viewers have experience with databases and business intelligence. They know what IBM is selling.

In true Oracle fashion, it didn’t pull punches in its commercial. The ad described, essentially, what the Oracle Grid is and why it matters. Forget that many in the grid community laughed at Oracle’s definition of grid computing; if viewers didn’t know what grid computing was, they had some idea after seeing the 15-second commercial. Of course, if they were Oracle customers – which many in the relatively sophisticated target audience likely were – they probably had been beat about the head with Oracle’s flagship grid software, Oracle Database 10g, for months prior to the commercial’s air date.

This difference between Microsoft and IBM and Oracle, though, is that Microsoft — with its PC, mobile and Office Live product lines — has to convince consumers to buy into its new strategies. So convince them: Tell them what it means to compute in the cloud and why it matters. Tell them they don’t need to buy or upgrade expensive processors or software, tell them they can access their photos and files from anywhere. Microsoft does a better job with others commercials in this campaign – targeted toward startups and travelers – but it needs to hit the mark consistently. The mothers and fathers of the world who care more about price and convenience than about collaborating on presentations or accessing recorded TV shows at the airport need to know why Microsoft and why the cloud.

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The good news is that, in time for Windows 7′s first anniversary on October 3rd, Microsoft is bringing back the Family Pack. It’s the same deal as before — three upgrade licenses for $150, although you’ll probably be able to find it a bit cheaper online. If you haven’t already upgraded your machines to Windows 7, it’s definitely worth considering as, once again, it’s only available “while stocks last.” The Family Pack will also be sold in Canada, the UK, Germany, France, Australia and “many other markets” on or after October 22nd to mark Windows 7′s first anniversary in those territories.

Have you upgraded to Windows 7 yet?

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Microsoft Security Essentials. A good anti-virus/spyware utility is a must on Windows 7, and I like Microsoft’s latest free product. I have used other free products in the past, AVG and McAfee in particular, but I find Microsoft’s Security Essentials is easier to install on new systems and uses less system resources than any other.

Rocketdock. I use a lot of Windows systems with limited screen real estate, and the free Rocketdock is a good way to have one-click access to the programs I use the most. Rocketdock is fully configurable, and can be positioned on any edge of the screen preferred. It’s simple and indispensable once installed. And it’s the utility I am most asked about when showing off a system with it installed.

Batterybar. I only use portable computers, and keeping an eye on battery performance is critical. Batterybar is a free meter (paid version available) that sits in the taskbar and shows the battery gauge. It also tracks lots of stats about the battery performance, and over time is extremely accurate.

CCleaner. Windows 7 requires housekeeping, just like all the versions before it, if you want to keep it humming along nicely. CCleaner is a free utility that keeps the pesky Windows registry lean and mean, along with clearing out the jump web browsers leave behind.

Wireless Network Meter. Desktop gadgets were introduced with Windows Vista, and Windows 7 carries on the tradition. I live my work life online, so keeping an eye on the network performance is useful. Wireless Network Meter monitors the network bandwidth in real time. It provides useful network information to make sure hotspots are secure.

Microsoft just kicked off a special pricing deal to make the upgrade more attractive, but they’re falling short in one key aspect. First, the deal: for a limited time, Microsoft is reducing the upgrade pricing using the Windows Anytime Upgrade feature. A move from Starter Edition to Home Premium is $49.99, which is a $30 savings. Windows 7 Home Premium can be kicked up to Windows 7 Professional for $79.99, which is only a meager $10 savings over the standard pricing. So for $50, you can add touch support, not to mention the Aero desktop features, handwriting recognition for inking and Windows Media Center functionality to a netbook currently running Windows 7 Starter.

While this sounds great, there’s a bit of a catch — as I read it, the deal is optionally offered by computer retailers on new netbook or notebook purchases. Unless I’m missing something, there’s no way to get the reduced pricing on a currently owned device, and that’s simply tragic. Yes, if you purchased a computer prior to this, you knew what operating system you were getting with it. But offering lower upgrade prices to new purchases and not existing customers makes the deal appear to be a ploy to sell more computers — not to show any appreciation to existing customers.

Is this a good deal for new purchases? Yes, I believe it is, although you have to make the decision based on your budget and computing needs. Could it be a better deal? Yes, it could, by Microsoft extending it to current users of Windows 7. A good “meet me halfway point” would be to offer the reduced upgrade pricing to any consumers that registered a new Windows 7 machine since the beginning of the year.

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