Who wants a netbook these days? Part of my Chrome OS device pessimism stems from the netbook market. As Google shared details of the new platform throughout 2009, netbooks were selling like gangbusters with year-over-year sales growth often over 179 percent. But the growth rate stalled late last year to practically no growth by April 2010 as shown by a Fortune chart comprised with data from NPD and Morgan Stanley Research.

Chrome OS devices might be called smartbooks instead of netbooks, but it won’t matter to consumers who will compare them to netbooks based on price, form factor and functionality.

There was no iPad nor credible consumer tablets last year. Another timing issue for Chrome OS is the emergence of Apple’s iPad and the many Android consumer tablets that are following suit, such as Samsung’s Galaxy Tab. I don’t believe the iPad single-handedly dismantled netbook sales, but it surely had an impact and continues to do so. The $499 starting price of an iPad Wi-Fi model isn’t that much more than some netbooks, and its generally faster and lighter. Plus, it provides a great experience for web and other content consumption. A Google Chrome OS netbook might excel at content creation, but given the limitation of a machine that only runs a browser and web apps, not enough to challenge tablets or even current netbooks.

Consumers like rich mobile apps. With its rise in Android powered smartphones, Google should know that we’re currently in a hot mobile app economy. Given that Google Chrome OS is essentially a browser atop a Linux kernel and will run web apps, how will consumers enjoy the app experience? Google introduced the Chrome Web Store back in May, but it’s not open yet, so we can’t see how robust the apps will be. While there is a future for such rich web apps with HTML5 standards, it’s going to take time before developers leave or augment their current activities for iOS, Android and other mobile platforms.

Android is the winning play. With Android, Google has proven it has a winner in the smartphone space; the platform fills a need both at the high- and the low-end for consumers that don’t want in on Apple’s ecosystem. Although the current version of Android isn’t optimized to compete against the iPad, customizations from hardware makers provide choice in the current tablet market, which will only get better when Google releases future versions of Android specific to tablets. Does it make sense to leverage Android in a netbook then, instead of Chrome OS? That’s no better an idea than Apple moving strictly to iOS for Mac computers in the future; it won’t work in the form-factor of a screen and keyboard because the operating system is suited for touch, not trackpad or mouse, as pointed out by John Gruber. Don’t believe him? Just run some iOS apps on a computer with the iOS emulator and see for yourself.

A browser-based netbook sounded like a good idea to me when it was first announced. At the time, I even said I was the perfect candidate for such a device. Given my meager computing needs, I’ve used both an ultra-mobile PC and a netbook as a primary device in the past, and even lived in nothing but a browser for 60 days on a PC just for the experience back in 2008. (I survived.) But that was well before market forces shifted to mobile apps and capable tablets with excellent browsers that are available at reasonable prices.

Unless Google plans to give away Chrome OS netbooks to consumers, or revamp the idea as a tablet, I’m not sure I see the need for it any more. Then again, everyone has unique device and use case requirements, so I’m interested in hearing thoughts from those who are still looking forward to Chrome OS netbooks and why.

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There is no denying that Android is the hottest ticket in town when it comes to mobile gadget platforms. It is widely known that in addition to all of the smartphones being released with Android, numerous tablets are in the process of being readied ready for market bearing the OS. While it makes perfect sense for Lenovo to choose to switch to Android for these two gadgets, it is surprising given they were both virtually ready for market with Linux.

This move to Android is particularly interesting on the U1 Hybrid, which is a dual-OS device. Lenovo showed us how the Linux slate operating system was in constant communication with the Windows 7 base. While surfing a given web site on the Linux slate, when the display was inserted back into the notebook base Windows would automatically have the same web page open in Internet Explorer. The goal was to make the two parts of the whole work as one, even though two distinct operating systems were in play.

This makes me wonder how the new Android version of the U1 will operate. Can Android be in constant communication with Windows 7 as in the demonstration with Linux? Or perhaps Lenovo is going to drop using Windows 7 in the notebook base? Maybe we’ll see a Chrome OS notebook base and an Android slate display? It is intriguing to be certain.

Engadget is now reporting that while the Skylight will likely appear in an Android version, the more interesting U1 Hybrid may never see the light of day. A statement from Lenovo refers to the U1 as a “concept”, certainly not what we were told in January.

Lenovo remains committed to working with our strategic partners to deliver innovative products in the growing mobile internet space, including the aforementioned smartphones and smartbooks, as well as exploring innovative new concepts that continue to “push-the-envelope” like the U1 hybrid PC.

Have a look at the CES video to see why these two gadgets are of interest.

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For starters, Acer is one of the originally named partners that Google is working with for the Chrome OS project. So are Adobe, ASUS, Freescale, Hewlett-Packard, Lenovo, Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, and Toshiba. Obviously having Acer on that list doesn’t add major credibility to the DigiTimes report, but if they weren’t listed, you could probably dismiss the news. Sidenote — although Intel is conspicuously absent from the partner list, Google initially said that Chrome OS would be supported on both ARM and x86 platforms. We already know that’s true — I installed a build of Chrome OS as the primary operating system of an x86 netbook back in December.

Speaking of Chrome OS builds, the very place I downloaded mine shows recent activity of late. Last week, “Hexxeh” dropped a brand new build and although it’s not officially from Google, it is built upon the Chromium OS open source efforts that will yield the Chrome OS. So in essence, it offers a glimpse of Google’s progress. I haven’t had a chance to download and install this build yet — I will do that on the same netbook I have running Chrome OS — but I can see features that weren’t there before. Hexxeh’s “Flow” build adds in his own customizable menus for organizing web apps , automatic updates, hardware accelerated support for Nvidia’s ION graphics solution, webcam support and battery life improvements, to name a few.

While I don’t know exactly what the Chromium OS communited added vs what Hexxeh included to the build, I’m not sure I care. Even if all of this was added by one individual — and a 17-year old one, at that! — it means the underlying framework of Chrome OS to support these features is coming along quickly. But is it quickly enough?

The competition that Google’s Chrome OS will face isn’t just the existing netbook market. It’s also the smartbook sector and I’ve argued that Apple’s iPad may have already cornered that market before it really starting to provide shipping products. And those iPads are due to start shipping around the end of next month. Now that Google and its Chrome OS partners know this, do you think they’ll be meandering around and working on products for year end shipping? I wouldn’t if I were them. I’d be trying to build the best mobile environment I could in as little time as possible — exactly what it sounds like Acer is reportedly doing. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if we start hearing announcements from Google’s hardware partners by May, which is one month after the iPad with 3G is due to ship.

If device availability isn’t on Google’s side, at least the pricing should be. I can’t imagine any Google Chrome OS devices costing $499 or more, which is the base model starting price for Apple’s iPad. And price is often a differentiator, although Apple is known as a premium brand and will offer a full application ecosystem with the iPad. Google’s Chrome OS is built on a Linux kernel, but the intended use for the system is for browsing and web-based applications.

As a current or potential netbook / smartbook owner, when do you think we’ll see a Google Chrome OS device? Does the introduction of Apple’s iPad have any influence over what you might buy or do you see that as a completely different type of device?

Image courtesy of Hexxeh

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As usual, the nebulous definitions of “always connected” and “subset of MIDs and netbooks” apply to the smartbook target. But there are also two very specific defining attributes in the ABI forecast: smartbooks run on a mobile operating system — still semi-nebulous — and they don’t use x86 processors. Did I just hear a virtual “uh oh” at Intel, or was that a passing sea breeze?

I’m not going to try and tell you what a “smartbook” is, but I’m inclined to agree with ABI on the non-x86 point. That doesn’t mean you won’t find “Intel inside” the smartbooks of tomorrow, but I believe that they’ll be relegated to a distant second when compared to how many smartbooks run on the ARM platform. This thought coincides with “the perfect storm” I see for ARM and why I predicted early on that Google’s Chrome OS devices would run on an ARM processor. When talking about the reasons for this shift to ARM in December, I used Chrome OS as an example:

Google’s Chrome OS is all about a browser and nothing but a browser. Multi-tasking is accomplished within tabs, but still in the browser. The web is your client and all of your apps are in the cloud. Will you really need the extra “oomph” of an x86 processor on this type of device at the end of 2010? For most web tasks, probably not. In fact, if you’re using the browser on a Palm Pre, Apple iPhone 3GS, Motorola Droid or Nokia N900, ARM is already powering your browser. And for streaming video with either Adobe’s Flash or inline with HTML5, a next-generation ARM processor ought to work well enough by then.

When I wrote that bit, I didn’t even have something that I have today — a Google Nexus One powered by Qualcomm’s latest 1 GHz Snapdragon CPU. After using the handset daily for the past six weeks, I believe in my December statement even more. For most of the light duty tasks people need on a smartphone, the ARM processors of today can do the job, and do it well for hours. And it’s not just me that thinks so. Most of the new tablets and smartbooks out of the Consumer Electronics Show and Mobile World Congress were running on new ARM chips from Nvidia, Freescale, Marvell and Texas Instruments in addition to Qualcomm. The other elephant in the room is Apple’s iPad with it’s custom A4 chip, which just happens to be based on the ARM architecture, as well. To say that the ARM ship is starting to sail into the mainstream would be an understatement from where I stand.

Is there a place for x86 in the smartbook sector? There is for some and Intel has made great strides with their Atom chipset by offering a solid combination of performance with power efficiency. However, there’s more work to do there before x86 and ARM on are equal footing. And then there’s that “mobile operating system” phrase that ABI snuck into their definition. What qualifies as a mobile OS is subject to debate, but when most of us think x86, we think desktop OS and not mobile OS. Perhaps that’s why Intel recently merged its Moblin project with Nokia’s Maemo platform to create MeeGo. Building the chips for a smartphone is one thing — but also providing a mobile friendly and energy efficient operating system is as difficult as swimming against the tide.

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Here’s a topic we’ve been kicking around since the first netbooks arrived — which device classes have a chance for success and which don’t? That’s actually a difficult question to answer because it’s going to vary based on your definition of success. And just because a device doesn’t see millions of sales doesn’t mean it won’t meet your individual needs.

Laptop Magazine’s Mark Spoonauer pinged me to share a handy chart that summarizes MIDs, media tablets, and smartbooks. Aside from the definition and characteristics of each, Mark also lists pros, cons and the chance of success. It’s a useful grouping of data, although I’d probably amend the pricing of media tablets. Mark lists them between $300 and $600, and includes Apple’s iPad in the category. With 3G and 64 GB of storage, you’ll pay $829 for a loaded iPad. And ironically, even though Mark’s definition wouldn’t consider the iPad to be a smartbook, I think that Apple cornered the smartbook market before it even took off. Even with a keyboard, smartbooks are sure to be compared to the iPad by consumers.

I’d consider adding another factor to the mix as well — how “mobile” is the device class. In my mind, a MID (or high-end smartphone) is more mobile than an iPad or a netbook-sized smartbook. This can make a difference because consumers could opt for a smaller device over a large one when leaving home.

Otherwise, I like what Mark put together as a reference. And I’m general agreement with his “chance of success” rates too. MIDs — and UMPCs with full desktop systems — are still fairly niche products and I’d expect the low rate of success they were given. How about you? Do you think Mark is a good odds maker for mobile device success rates?

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The State of the Smartbook

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But if you step back from those “wants” and simply look at the device and the use case scenario, one could argue that Apple just introduced one of the first commercially available smartbooks to the masses. Did Cupertino just pull a fast one and corner the smartbook market before anyone else could get that market off the ground?

Let’s look at the loose definition of a smartbook for a second. Granted, this isn’t defined in stone, but I think most folks will agree with these characteristics. And for clarification, I’m taking much of list directly from Qualcomm’s Smartbook site, since they coined the term.

• Instant-on access – smartbooks should wake up instantly and be ready to go.
• 3G connectivity — mobile broadband allows for smartbook usage in places outside of the home and Wi-Fi hotspots.
• Ultra-portable design — Qualcomm defines this as less than 20mm thick and under two pounds in weight.
• All-day battery life — 8 to 10 hours on a charge with standby times of at least a week.
• Built-in GPS — location is important and desirable for LBS.
• Customizable interface — “intuitive, one-touch navigation to your favorite applications,” says Qualcomm.

So that’s how Qualcomm defines a smartbook. Of course, they make ARM processors which power smartphones today and smartbooks are essentially mobile devices that use the guts of a smartphone but on a bigger display. Having said all that, which attributes would you say don’t apply to the Apple iPad? I don’t see a single one — all of these smartbook characteristics are attributable by Apple’s newest mobile device.

My personal take on the device — after digesting the information over the past two days — is that the iPad is evolutionary and not revolutionary. Apple essentially evolved their iPhone ecosystem beyond handsets and into smartbooks. I’d even go out on a limb and say that every company with thoughts of entering the smartbook market is already fighting an uphill battle for three reasons.

• Most consumers don’t yet know what a smartbook is. And yet Apple is ready to provide them one without even using the new device class name. In one fell swoop, they “reinvented” a market that was waiting to get started. One could even argue that the term “smartbook” won’t even take off if the iPad becomes a runaway success.
• All of the smartbooks I’ve seen use very similar guts to power the device, but they all use different operating systems. And by different, I mean “unfamiliar” to your average mainstream audience. The iPad uses the easy recognizable iPhone operating system which tens of millions of consumers already recognize and use. Back in June, I said this of operating systems on smartbooks: “Linux is definitely capable for this type of device, but for your average consumer to use it on a device, it needs to be slick, intuitive and have a familiar feel to it.” Aside from the Linux reference, my statement applies fairly well to the iPhone OS, no?
• Any smartbooks to hit the market now will be compared to the iPad. And if they don’t offer seamless media sync, intuitive interfaces that people understand and a wide array of software applications out of the box, they won’t compete well.

Summing up all three of those reasons indicates the challenges that smartbooks were — and still are — expected to face. Yet Apple has just leap-frogged right over those challenges and turned them into the strengths of their latest creation. For the first time that I can remember, Apple hasn’t waited for others to create a market with marginal products and then jump in with latest iWhatever that improves upon the failures of others. Instead, Cupertino leveraged a familiar mobile operating system, created their own silicon to power it and took it upon themselves to lead a market — all while others have futzed about for over a year trying to determine if such a market would even take shape. And here’s the ultimate irony — 12 months ago when I saw an early smartbook prototype, it was actually a tablet form factor; a convertible tablet, yes, but still a tablet.

I’ve said in the past that I’m actually an ideal candidate for a smartbook because I mainly need a decent web browser to use to consume information. All the apps that I’m already using on my iPhone are just the icing on the smartbook cake. When I look at the iPad in that light, it actually becomes appealing to me. But if you’re one of those that has already condemned the iPad, that’s OK. However, I think you’ll have to condemn the entire smartbook market by proxy too at this point.

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The Mobinnova Beam is one of the first netbooks expected in 2010.

Netbooks have been a rip-roaring success since they hit the market a year and a half ago. In 2009 alone, one out of every five PCs sold has reportedly been a netbook, with estimates for the full year of sales hovering at around 35 million. Almost all of the global computer manufacturers, including HP, Dell, ASUS and Acer, have netbooks in their product lines. But if you ask companies like Qualcomm, Freescale and Nvidia, they’d say there’s room for another type of uber-portable, connected, cheap and underpowered computer — the so-called “smartbook.”

A portmanteau of the words smartphone and notebook, the smartbook would combine the best of both devices, namely long battery life and Wi-Fi and 3G connectivity (smartphones) and a laptop-like clamshell design, albeit with a full screen, keyboard and mouse pad (notebook).

While smartbooks will be lighter, cheaper and more connected than netbooks, some core ingredients — such as Intel processors and Microsoft’s operating system — will be missing, which could present usability challenges to mainstream users. Over at GigaOM Pro, I take a look at whether the new crop of devices set to be available starting in early 2010 will be able to successfully penetrate the mainstream consumer market.

Image courtesy of nDevilTV via Flickr.

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Even though Google’s “initial aim is to ease onto the desktop through the netbook arena,” jkOnTheRun’s James Kendrick believes the operating system would be a great fit for smartbooks, too. And what does Chrome OS mean for Apple? While some think the new operating system may put pressure on Apple’s software, TheAppleBlog argues that the real impact will be felt by the company’s hardware in the future as casual users looking to purchase a new laptop are likely to be attracted to “Chrome-toting devices.” One thing Google and Apple both share is loads of hype surrounding their latest announcements, OStatic points out, even though the two companies sometimes don’t turn out winning products in the end. OStatic provides a list of what things Google has and does not have in its favor when releasing Chrome OS.

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Intel wants to name its new thin, light and low-power consuming notebooks CULV, aka Consumer Ultra Low Voltage. Many of these devices will be nearly as thin as the MacBook Air. Today, an executive disclosed that Microsoft wants to call mini-notebooks “low-cost small notebooks.” Both of these monikers are about as appealing as the sensation one gets after accidentally rubbing sea salt on a fresh wound.

There are other category-defining names that have been floated by various companies over the past few months, such as smartbooks, UMPC, netbooks and cloud computers. Whatever the name, they are essentially cheap PCs. Jen-Hsun Huang, CEO of Nvidia, summed up my feeling when he said, “Netbooks are not a new category, instead they are just cheap PCs. The $399 PC is here to stay and it will get better and better.” Coming up with a fancy (or convoluted) name isn’t going to change that!

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