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• Mobile 2012 and beyond
• CES 2012: a recap and analysis
• Connected world: the consumer technology revolution

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• Flash analysis: smart watches
• How emerging technologies will influence collaboration
• Analyzing the wearable computing market

To be a part of the show, just call in and leave a voicemail at 262-KCTOFEL. If you do, we’ll play back the question on the show and answer it. Or you can tweet me at @kevinctofel on Twitter. Each week, I’ll answer as many questions as I can while keeping the podcast to a manageable amount of time: 20 to 30 minutes at most.

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Why Big Data Will Be Even Bigger in 2013

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Casio’s GB6900AA watch, spotted by Engadget, wirelessly connects to Apple’s iPhone 4S and 5 smartphones, which both support the Bluetooth 4.0 Low Energy standard.  Once paired and connected, it receives alerts for incoming calls and emails. The watch can also sync the time with an iPhone and alert the wearer if they move beyond the wireless range of their iPhone, in case the handset is left behind. Double-tapping the watch face dismisses an alert.

In the product’s press release, Casio says the watch battery lasts for two years, assuming 12 hours of wireless connectivity per day. That’s a big plus as some of the early smart watches require recharging every few days or weeks. Some of that battery savings could be coming from limited functionality, however: The GB6900AA simply notifies the user of incoming calls or emails; it doesn’t provide caller ID or message details.

For many consumers, this will be the first time they see a connected watch. Geeks like me have a seen a number of them on Kickstarter, tested some out in the past or actually one one: I still wear the MotoACTV I bought this year. Talk about smart watches to the average consumer, however, and they’d likely say they never heard of them. Casio’s adoption of such technologies, combined with its brand recognition, should raise awareness more than any independent smart watch maker could.

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• Wearable computing becomes the next mobile frontier. This year saw an increase in the number of viable smart devices that can be worn on a wrist, but 2012 will see greater consumer adoption of them. Watches such as the MetaWatch, InPulse and WIMM have set the stage and others will follow. I expect Sony to take another crack at this market after its mediocre LiveView watch. Motorola has already made a play here in 2011 with the MotoActv but will add another model or improve the current one. And I’m not counting Apple out here either: Adding Bluetooth to the iPod nano would be an ideal way to interact with an iPhone to see messages, or even utilize Siri. Note that Bluetooth 4.0 will power most of these devices in 2012.
• We’ll remotely connect to our smart homes. I’m an early adopter in this category, having in 2010 enabled a home automation system that I can tap via my smartphone. Next year, more will do so and the idea of a “smart home” will be a term that most consumers are familiar with. Trying to tap the growing number of smartphone users, companies will aggressively compete for the business of installing sensors in the home and offering software and services to monitor them. But more people will test their own do-it-yourself solutions due to falling costs of sensors, networked cameras and simple, low-cost software to communicate with a smart home.
• A jump in wireless home broadband adoption. With two LTE networks in the U.S., plus a fast HSPA+ option in T-Mobile, carriers will offer wireless home broadband solutions at appealing prices. I anticipate seeing wireless bundles of home and mobile broadband on single bills that cost less than wired broadband paired with mobile data plans. Instead of opting for DSL or fiber connections, we’ll see the beginnings of homeowners “cutting the cord” on home broadband, creating more demand for spectrum.
• Windows Phone usage grows, but slower than expected. Microsoft will make headway in smartphone platform market share in 2012, but still won’t see double-digit share in 2012. It will, however, surpass BlackBerry market share for phones sold in 2012. Windows 8 will actually help create demand for Windows Phone in the second half of the year as desktop upgraders will want the Metro user interface on their phones for a unified experience.

• Windows tablets in 2012 will sell like Android tablets did in 2011. Windows fans will trumpet the success of Windows on a consumer tablet this coming year, but the total sales of such devices will be less than 10 million units from all hardware makers combined. The iPad was the king of tablets in 2011 due to a strong ecosystem and intuitive interface and won’t be dethroned in 2012. Tablet choice for consumers next year will be iPad first, Android second and Windows third.
• Research In Motion will no longer exist as we know it today. I’d like to be wrong on this, as competition is good for all, but RIM’s missteps and late reactions to competition finally exact a toll: By year-end, I suspect the company will be purchased, mainly for its patents, or will refocus as a services-oriented entity.
• Nokia uses Symbian as a backup plan (but doesn’t call it Symbian). Although Nokia is using Windows Phone as its primary platform for smartphones, it continues to mature Symbian in the face of underwhelming Windows Phone sales. Without momentum and in the face of growing iOS and Android sales, the platform won’t fare any better than it did in 2011.
• The patent wars worsen. This year was marked with more high-profile patent cases than I can remember in the mobile space. The situation won’t get better in 2012; it will worsen as platforms are now less disruptive and show more parity. With fewer ways to differentiate from the competition, lawsuits will multiply. However, I do expect that of all the companies involved in such suits, Samsung and Apple, will come to terms in 2012. Samsung will pay an undisclosed amount to Apple and will have to heavily modify the look and feel of their customized user interface software.
• Dual-core devices will outsell quad-core devices. Although dual-core chips only began to power smartphones and tablets in 2011, they’ll be used more often in 2012, even though quad-core chips are here now. The power of four cores simply isn’t needed in lower-cost phones and tablets. Think of Amazon’s Kindle Fire, the Barnes & Noble Nook Tablet and other devices that don’t require such power, cost or reduced battery life. Remember that throwing hardware in a device doesn’t solve software or usability problems.
• Apple’s next iPhone will be the iPhone 4GS. The company has wisely waited for two things before bringing 4G support to its handset: efficient radios supporting both 3G and 4G technologies and widespread deployment of LTE networks. These problems will disappear in 2012 and 4G will be one of the big features of the next phone. I don’t expect the general design of the hardware to change, however. When the iPhone 4GS arrives, it will be priced the same as today’s 4S. That old model will be priced at $99 and the old iPhone 4 will be free on contract.
• There will be an iPad Pro available in 2012. The iPad 2 will continue on as a current model in 2012, but see a price reduction, while a double-resolution iPad Pro will launch this coming year. The new Pro model will be priced the same as the current iPad 2. With a price drop for the current iPad 2, Apple will see no need to create a 7-inch iPad for $199 and up, although I will still want such a beast for several reasons. There’s the off-chance that Apple retires the iPod touch so as not to compete on price with the reduced-cost iPad and because iPhone sales will continue to siphon off potential iPod touch buyers.
• Google will split off Motorola not long after its purchase goes though. This may not happen in 2012, but I expect the announcement of it to take place next year. Google can’t own a hardware company and compete with its hardware partners. It knows this and will split Motorola off with the provision that it retains Motorola’s mobile patents for use in protecting any Android partner.

• Android’s momentum will continue thanks to Android 4.0. The new platform will be seen by many as more comparable to iOS, which will keep selling phones and begin to finally build a large following for Android tablets. Even so, developers will continue to generally make apps for iOS first and will make far more money as a collective group. However, the adoption of Android 4.0 will be the impetus for noticeable improvements in the quality and availability of Android apps.
• Hybrid apps with HTML5 will be the norm. The standards for HTML5 are still in motion so native apps will continue to be stronger than web-based apps. But as in 2011, many of the native apps on smartphones will use HTML5 as a base with a native wrapper around them. With the number of HTML5 compatible handsets expected by 2013, we’ll see momentum grow for true web apps on low-end phones.
• Intel will announce that 2013 is the year it really gets into the mobile market.The song has remained the same for the past few years, but Intel still hasn’t cracked the fast-growing mobile market. It will see more success in 2012, especially with tablets, but still will be considered an also-ran to ARM-powered devices in 2012.
• We’ll see a smaller Kinect in 2012, with expectations that such technology fits in a mobile device the following year. The promise of gesture-based mainstream interfaces began in late 2010 as Microsoft debuted Kinect. A smaller version for the Xbox will arrive before the 2012 holiday season and Microsoft will demonstrate an integrated prototype that works with Windows Phone or a Windows 8 tablet.

Just as I did this year, I’ll revisit these thoughts at the end of 2012 to see how well — or how badly — my prognostication skills are. Got any of your own predictions for mobile in 2012? Share them in the comments!

Image courtesy Flickr user islandguy

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The release of Garmin Fit illustrates a continued industry shift from single-use hardware toward software, thanks to sensor-filled smartphones. As an avid runner, I remember my first experience of mixing exercise with mobile technology in 2004, which required new hardware.

Back then, I spent several hundred dollars for a Garmin Forerunner watch that had a large display and integrated GPS radio. I wore it on my wrist — although it took up most of my forearm — and I tracked my running efforts in real time.

Fast forward to today, and such watches are much smaller, feature-filled and less expensive; a basic Garmin with the same functionality today is around $150. Of course, that buys you what’s essentially a single-purpose product when compared to a smartphone that doesn’t cost much more. Yes, there’s a monthly data plan cost for the phone, which an exercise watch doesn’t have, but that connection opens up near limitless usage scenarios. For Garmin to maintain relevance in this new connected world, it has to migrate its product focus from hardware- to software-centric.

And Garmin knows this: It has almost a dozen software titles in the iTunes App Store, for example. The company isn’t giving up on hardware by any means; it still makes personal navigation devices. Garmin also extends the utility of its $0.99 fitness app with a $50 add-on adapter that uses ANT+ wireless technology with Garmin sensors for advanced data tracking.

Ultimately though, the smartphone has changed the hardware market for mobile gadgets, and we’ll be discussing that next month at our RoadMap event. Not everyone wants to run with a smartphone in hand, of course, but the sensors, chips and connectivity in our handsets are finding their way to more intelligent, multi-purpose watches and other wearable devices. The traditional hardware makers that continue to thrive in the future have to recognize that hardware is only half of the solution; software is equally important, if not more so.

Garmin Forerunner 201 image courtesy of Flickr user, planetc1

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MotoACTV is small, square 46mm device that attaches to a wrist band or fits on bike mounts, arm bands and shirt clip accessories. The idea is that it’s a purpose-built device designed for fitness types or people who want to improve their health. MotoACTV uses GPS, a 600 MHz processor running Google Android, an accelerometer and a Bluetooth 4.0 connection to help create a smart device that can track distance, steps and calories burned. It also works with a special sports Bluetooth headset that can measure a user’s heart rate.

Users can load up up to 4,000 songs on the device, which will come in 8 and 16 GB versions selling for $249 and $299. The songs aren’t just to pass the time: MotoACTV recalls what songs you work hardest to and builds a playlist with the songs that have the best effect on you. Performance data can be automatically linked to MotoACTV.com via Wi-Fi so your runs and other exercise can be tracked, analyzed and shared with friends. The online portal can analyze a user’s results and offer tips and training from experts based on their performance.

As a health device, it’s got an appealing size and because of its accelerometer and GPS sensors, it can do a better job than an iPod Nano in improving your health. It also looks pretty snazzy and should get buzz when people see it. Motorola said the device can run for five hours outdoors with the GPS on or 10 hours indoors without GPS and can run on standby as a watch for three days. You can also link the watch to an Android device with a MotoACTV app so users can see incoming text messages and receive alerts for incoming phone calls, which they can take on their Bluetooth headset.

I played with the device a bit and found it very responsive, clean and appealing. You can set a song to play when you start workouts and you can view a screen with four metrics that you program to chart your progress. You can also tap on each metric to pull up a full screen. The device has volume buttons, a jack for a wired head set, a power button and two buttons, one for music and one fitness actions.

It’s not surprising that Motorola has gone this route. There’s a bunch of emerging devices aiming at the mobile health market. I’ve written about the Basis watch, which packs in a heart rate monitor into the actual device, as well as Jawbone’s upcoming Up fitness wrist watch, which will offer similar features to MotoACTV. And Affectiva, an MIT spin-off, also recently released Q, a wrist sensor that monitors motion, temperature and electrodermal activity, which can measure stress, relaxation and arousal. There’s also devices like Striiv, Fitbit and smartphone-based solutions like RunKeeper that are also tackling this market. And MotoACTV also pits Motorola against new smart watch makers like the team behind the Meta Watch as well as accessory makers creating wrist mounts for the iPad Nano. 

I’m not sure how popular MotoACTV will be at that price, which at a starting price point of $249 is nearly twice an iPod Nano. You’ll need to get the Motorola SF700 wireless or SF500 wired headsets with heart rate monitors to get the full effect and while they’re better than strap on heart monitors, they up the cost. Motorola will also have to ensure that its online service is robust because it’s not just about gathering data but it really comes down to analysis and good tools to break down exercise performance and tips to improve health.

Still, Motorola has a chance to take a leadership position in this new market if it advertises heavily and opens people’s eyes to the opportunity in using a wrist watch to improve a user’s health and connect to a smartphone as a second display. But overall, it shows that sensors are getting smaller and smaller and that it’s now inviting a lot of people to build sophisticated watches that take on a lot of tasks.

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With key leaders from Fossil taking over the Meta Watch assets, the project’s focus won’t change. Meta Watch will still be a Bluetooth-enabled wristwatch that wirelessly connects to a smartphone for alerts, notifications, messaging and more. The company will continue to sell a development platform for $200, with expected availability this month. The goal remains to make Meta Watch a platform for developers; not to create end-user consumer products.

In advance of the news, I spoke last week with Geiser, who takes on the CEO role of Meta Watch, and asked why Fossil was willing to let Meta Watch go. “It’s a win, win, win,” Geiser told me by phone, saying, “It’s good for Fossil, good for us and good for this category. But the connected watch business wasn’t in scope of Fossil’s core competency of lifestyle products. So this generated an opportunity for a focused team to take this on because when you throw radios in these products, it changes everything.”

I agree with Geiser’s thoughts, in particular the last one because I’ve used several “smart” watches over the past half-dozen years. Simply put: Few have worked well for me outside of the Meta Watch prototype I reviewed this past June. The Meta Watch manages the wireless connection extremely well, runs for a long time on a single charge and smartly provides useful information at a glance, instead of trying to do too much on a small screen.

You can read my full review and impressions of the gadget here, but this summary of my thoughts explains the vision that the Meta Watch provided me:

[T]he MetaWatch team “gets it” when it comes to smart watches. There are many visions of what a smart watch ought to do, but the more functionality added, the more complex and disruptive the technology can be. Perhaps one day we’ll all be talking into our wrist for a phone call, but for the coming future, a display-at-a-glance device with a simple, intuitive interface is saving me much time.

In my use of a Meta Watch prototype, the device hasn’t yet missed a notification from my Android smartphone. “We think of ourselves of the FedEx of notifications,” Geiser says. As a result, I found myself relying on the watch to triage my email because notifications are instantly pushed from smartphone to watch. With just an unobtrusive glance at my wrist, it’s a simple matter to see if an email is urgent enough to pull out the smartphone, or if the message can wait until later, for example.

Geiser told me the Meta Watch team will continue to look at other smartphone platforms and also move beyond standard notifications for incoming calls, SMS, email and other alerts. Music control, location-based check-in — perhaps even advertising based on location — navigation and sports activities are all potential areas for the platform. And developers looking to instrument their own apps can easily do so.

We’ll be talking about “smart” watches and other non-traditional connected devices later this month at our Mobilize conference in San Francisco, and I’ll be curious to see where the conversation leads. In particular, we’re not yet at the point for wearable computers to take the place of smartphones in our pocket.

We’re limited by display size and input methods, just to name a few constraints. But for now, an ambient notification system on the wrist can provide far more value than people realize. It’s now up to the Meta Watch team to preach that message to consumers and attract developers to broaden the possibilities for this useful prototype watch.

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My experience with the MetaWatch, a prototype watch project backed by Fossil , couldn’t be any more different. The reason is because the MetaWatch takes a different approach, which I’ve come to see is more effective. Instead of trying to cram extensive application functions into a small screen on the wrist, the MetaWatch offers useful information at a glance without the need for scrolling. MetaWatch isn’t trying to replicate or replace smartphone functions; it supplements them. And the connection is rock-solid and reconnects by itself.

Less Is More; Convenience Is a Feature

Bill Geiser, VP of Watch Technology, and David Rosales, manager of product development and engineering, both from Fossil, recently told me the watch is an exploration for the company. “Some may overlook the convenience, which to us is a feature. Think of Netflix and microwaves: each takes an existing concept and makes it easier to use, for example,” Geiser said.

A perfect example of that convenience is how I’ve used the MetaWatch to help me triage the near-constant flow of email coming to my phone. When a message arrives on my handset, the MetaWatch vibrates two times as an alert. That tells me some type of message is about to appear on my wrist. A few seconds later, the watch vibrates once and shows the sender’s name, subject line and a few words of the email. That’s all I get, but I’ve learned that’s all I need.

From that one glance of minimal information, I can tell if the mail is important enough to pull out my smartphone (cat videos can wait) and take action or if I can simply ignore the message until I have more time later in the day. It doesn’t sound like an earth-shattering change, but after two weeks with the MetaWatch, I find it an effective time-saver. The alternative is taking out the smartphone with every notification, unlocking the device and then scanning the email, which may not even warrant immediate action; a much more disruptive activity.

This same at-a-glance functionality works with incoming text messages, incoming phone calls and calendar event notifications. The watch face can also show local weather, and of course, the time and date, in addition to the number of unread emails, messages and missed phone calls. The current music track and artist can also be shown, although on the prototype, that function hasn’t worked for me.

MetaWatch Is a Platform, Not a Product

The “secret sauce” behind what the MetaWatch displays is actually an open-source solution, aptly named OpenWatch. I’m using the software on my Android handset, but it supports other platforms as well: BlackBerry, Windows Mobile and Java handsets, for example. The MetaWatch pairs quickly with the OpenWatch software using Bluetooth, and the wireless range itself is far better than what I experienced with the Sony Ericsson Live View. In contrast, I’ve worn the MetaWatch at least 80 feet from my handset and still received notifications. That’s likely due to both the software as well as the low-power Bluetooth solution used in the MetaWatch, which is a wireless chip from Texas Instruments .

As a reminder, this is a $200 prototype for developers and other watch manufacturers to leverage so don’t get hung up on size, form factor and other physical features. The device uses a 96 x 96 reflective display, has six function buttons, backlight capability, vibrating motor, leather strap, accelerometer and rechargeable battery. The beta software I’m using is specific to stress test the messaging, so it hits the battery harder than a production version would. I was told to expect a day per charge and I can easily see that. With final software, the watch should run for a full week.

Developers can instrument their applications to leverage the MetaWatch with very little code; since the device is essentially a remote display, applications simply need to provide output to the MetaWatch through the OpenWatch software. And that’s partially why Fossil is backing the project as a platform, instead of driving their own individual sales. “We think there are 1,000 killer apps for this,” Rosales said, and by licensing the effort, Fossil stands to gain back the last few years of effort and research dollars to pair a smart watch on the wrist to nearly every smartphone out there.

My conversation with Geiser and Rosales and the last few weeks of using a MetaWatch, have taught me that the MetaWatch team “gets it” when it comes to smart watches. There are many visions of what a smart watch ought to do, but the more functionality added, the more complex and disruptive the technology can be. Perhaps one day we’ll all be talking into our wrist for a phone call, but for the coming future, a display-at-a-glance device with a simple, intuitive interface is saving me much time.

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