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On the positive side, a number of those watching either live or on a livestream said that BlackBerry had caught up and possibly even surpassed other platforms like Apple’s iOS, Android and Windows 8, and that the company had a fighting chance of remaining relevant:

I am actually genuinely excited about BlackBerry 10. It looks like it has potential.

—
Tom Warren (@tomwarren) January 30, 2013

.@Pogue on the BlackBerry Z10: "It's lovely, fast and efficient, bristling with fresh, useful ideas" nyti.ms/WBgM4j

—
The New York Times (@nytimes) January 30, 2013

#BB10 definitely meets needs for launch. Momentum, execution and of course perception will be key.

—
Michael Gartenberg (@Gartenberg) January 30, 2013

I said it before and I'll say it again: If RIM/Blackberry is indeed on its last legs, it's going to go down swinging.

—
Arik Hesseldahl (@ahess247) January 30, 2013

At least one enthusiastic BlackBerry supporter even went so far as to say that Steve Jobs would be jealous of what the company had announced:

Can someone check Steve Jobs' grave? This #BlackBerry10 is looking like a major threat to $AAPL. Steve might be spinning right now.

—
Michael Hainsworth (@hainsworthtv) January 30, 2013

But there were just as many — or more — responses that criticized BlackBerry for being late to the party, and for only now coming up with the kinds of features and apps that iPhone and even Android have had for some time. CNN Money said that the Z10 was the kind of phone BlackBerry “should have made years ago” and that while there were some good ideas in it, “Everything still feels a generation behind.”

BB10 pitch so far: "You like Instagram? FaceTime? That Apple collage-maker thing? We have stuff like that now!"

—
Omar El Akkad (@omarelakkad) January 30, 2013

Breaking news: The Titanic has just been renamed Blackberry

—
Cathleen Ritt (@CathleenRitt) January 30, 2013

congratulations blackberry on creating an operating system that is competitive with Palm OS

—
Ed Zitron (@edzitron) January 30, 2013

RIM will announce today that they’re almost feature parity to 2010 with other major smartphone platforms.

—
Glenn Fleishman (@GlennF) January 30, 2013

You've had exodus of millions of Blackberry users to iOS/Android now. To think that a clone touchscreen will save you is business insanity.

—
Shervin Pishevar (@shervin) January 30, 2013

In his review, Walt Mossberg of the Wall Street Journal and All Things Digital said that the company had “reinvented itself” with its new devices, but also called it a “work in progress” and noted that the new phones lacked some of the features — and many of the apps — that users of other platforms were used to:

“Overall, it worked fine in my tests, but I found it a work in progress. I liked some things a lot, including the way RIM has designed its new virtual keyboard and camera, and the way it gathers all your messages into a single Hub. But it will launch with just a fraction of the apps available from its competitors, and is missing some very popular titles…. and there are other missing or lagging features.”

One of the early awkward notes in the presentation — at least for some attendees and observers — was a public thank-you from CEO Thorsten Heins to former co-CEOs Jim Balsillie and Mike Lazaridis:

"Thank you for guiding us in the future" says RIM's CEO to the ex-co-CEO that drove it into the ground. live.theverge.com/blackberry-10-… #BlackBerry10

—
Ross Miller (@ohnorosco) January 30, 2013

Only RIM would salute the two gentlemen who put the company in a desperate hole at the event designed to get out of that hole.

—
Tom Krazit (@tomkrazit) January 30, 2013

The renaming of the company sparked some positive comments, but also drew a lot of snarky responses about how no one really knew what Research In Motion stood for anyway — and also a comment about how much pressure the name change puts on the company to succeed with the BlackBerry revamp:

Research in Motion has renamed itself Blackberry. Everyone outside Waterloo: "You mean Blackberry isn't their name?"

—
David J. MacKay (@DavidJMacKay) January 30, 2013

So the guys who joked that RIM would die before it launched BlackBerry 10 were technically accurate.

—
Vlad Savov (@vladsavov) January 30, 2013

RIM is now just BlackBerry. Less confusing! Also a reminder if the new phones don't work the company is dead. They have nothing else.

—
John Herrman (@jwherrman) January 30, 2013

The RIM rebranding news is arguably a bigger deal than either individual device.

—
nilay patel (@reckless) January 30, 2013

Funny, when Apple Computer -> Apple, it signaled a broadening of focus/products. RIM -> BlackBerry doesn't quite make the same statement.

—
Jeremy Horwitz (@horwitz) January 30, 2013

Then it was on to the details of the two handsets, the Z10 and the Q10 — the former a touchscreen model and the latter featuring a QWERTY keyboard, which has been BlackBerry’s key differentiator from other smartphones for some time. After some talk about the hardware design, the company went into details about what apps would be available, and there was some optimism but also much skepticism:

@kady @thehartley Yes, whatever will we do without 457 flashlight apps?

—
Anthony Reinhart (@ajreinhart) January 30, 2013

…..Who the hell requires you to reboot your device when you install apps?

—
Armando Rodriguez (@megapenguinx) January 30, 2013

BB10 has 70,000 apps to choose from at launch. About one-tenth what you'll find on Apple/Android.

—
Omar El Akkad (@omarelakkad) January 30, 2013

Fun seeing BlackBerry users discover video chat seemingly for the first time. FaceTime, Google Talk and Skype would like to say hi!

—
Jon Fingas (@jonfingas) January 30, 2013

In a mammoth review of the touch-screen Z10, Joshua Topolsky of The Verge said that there were many things to like about it, but lots of things not to like as well — and the bottom line seemed to be a definite “meh”:

“The Z10 is a good smartphone. Frankly, it’s a better smartphone than I expected from RIM at this stage in the game. It does everything a modern phone should do, usually without hesitation. It doesn’t do everything perfectly, but it does many things — most things — reasonably well. The problem with the Z10 is that it doesn’t necessarily do anything better than any of its competition.”

Towards the end of the presentation, the BlackBerry CEO announced that singer Alicia Keys would be the company’s new “global creative director,” and like most of the other announcements by the company at the launch, this also drew a lot of snark:

Everything about this #BB10 keynote impressed me, up until the point where they jumped on the Celebrity Executive Announcement trend. Sigh.

—
Jon Crowley (@joncrowley) January 30, 2013

Because the celebrity creative director thing worked out so well for Polaroid and @ladygaga.

—
  (@joemfbrown) January 30, 2013

Appropriate Blackberry pick Alicia Keys. She was last relevant what seems like a lifetime ago too...

—
Luke McGee (@lukemcgee85) January 30, 2013

BlackBerry announces Alicia Keyes as its new "global creative director." I am really not sure what that means.

—
  (@Dan_Rowinski) January 30, 2013

So does the BlackBerry 10 launch mark the rebirth of a revitalized company, ready to take on Apple, Android and Windows for smartphone supremacy? It’s probably safe to say that view would be in the minority — and the most common response was a virtual shrug:

I give #Blackberry10 a solid meh.

—
Romit Mehta (@TheRomit) January 30, 2013

It’s still early days, of course, but that’s not a great harbinger of success for the company, which has so much riding on a recovery — and perhaps even more important, the stock market seemed to be shrugging its shoulders (or even frowning) at the announcement as well:

In his review of the Z10, New York Times technology writer David Pogue apologized for saying RIM was dead before, but still wound up sitting on the fence about whether the device would be enough to save the company:

“These days, excellence in a smartphone isn’t enough. Microsoft’s phone is terrific, too, and hardly anyone will touch it. So then: Is the delightful BlackBerry Z10 enough to save its company? Honestly? It could go either way. But this much is clear: BlackBerry is no longer an incompetent mess — and its doom is no longer assured.”

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I described the morning’s events as they unfolded here. I’ll have more coverage soon, but for a preview, check out my story earlier this week, “After a rise and fall, BlackBerry 10 is RIM’s last, best comeback attempt.” And for the early peanut-gallery reaction to RIM’s (now known only as BlackBerry) announcements, check out this story.

These were the highlights:

• Research in Motion will now be known simply as BlackBerry, according to CEO Thorsten Heins.
• Two BlackBerry 10 handsets were shown off: the touchscreen Z10 and the QWERTY keyboard Q10
• Some interesting features such as BlackBerry Hub, Story Maker, and others were shown off. 70,000 apps will be available.
• The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the phones won’t be available until mid-March in the U.S. They’ll be available in other countries much sooner, with the U.K. able to purchase the devices tomorrow.

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Given that success, it once seemed unfathomable that RIM wouldn’t easily be one of the world’s top 5 smartphone makers, yet in 2012 it barely held on to the fifth spot as Samsung, Apple, Nokia and HTC sold more smartphones. Put in perspective: RIM’s 32.5 million smartphones sold all year were easily trumped by Apple 47.8 million handsets sold in the final quarter of 2012 alone.

As quickly as RIM’s BlackBerry rose to the top in the first half of the last decade, it just as quickly fell behind the touchscreen smartphone revolution started by Apple in 2007. Now, after several years of losing market share and stalling growth of its BlackBerry subscriber base, RIM is rebooting the product line this week with the debut of BlackBerry 10.

Not the first time for a comeback effort

This isn’t the first of RIM’s attempts to compete with the current crop of smartphones. 2008 saw RIM debut the BlackBerry Storm, an all touch device that created little more than a drizzle in the market. In 2010, the company launched the BlackBerry Torch 9800 along with the BlackBerry 6 operating system and a WebKit browser. But after using an evaluation device, I felt — as did others, based on meager sales — the Torch was an evolution of the same old BlackBerry experience, not the revolution that RIM really needed at the time.

Aware that it needed something new for the future, that same year saw RIM purchase QNX Software Solutions from Harman International. At the time, QNX was used for many in-car information and entertainment systems. RIM’s BlackBerry PlayBook tablet was the first RIM product to use a QNX-based platform and while it was good at what it did, the slate was missing key features: A native email client for one, and direct access to RIM’s popular BBM messaging service.

Amid those feature misses and lackluster sales, I suggested that RIM made a mistake by putting QNX on a tablet before using it to power BlackBerry smartphones. In hindsight, however, it appears that RIM had little choice: It was reportedly having problems getting the BBM service on PlayBooks because the service is limited to a single device per user. And it took nearly a year to get a native email app on the tablet. It appears to me now — as it did then — that RIM was simply trying to beat others into the nascent and quickly growing tablet market that began in earnest with the iPad in 2010. As a result, it launched a product well before perfecting the experience.

So why is this time different?

We’ll know more after Wednesday’s BB 10 launch in New York City, but hints of potential success for RIM are popping up all over the web. First up is the hardware, expected to be two initial handsets; one with a physical keyboard and one, dubbed the Z10, without. From the various leaked images and video of what’s likely a developer phone model in use, they appear perfectly capable and comparable in performance to other high-end smartphones available today.

What about the operating system? Considering that RIM originally planned to have a new platform on phones by early 2012, it has had an extra year to work on BB 10. That year proved tumultuous with the co-CEOs stepping down, market share dropping, pleas to developers to stay the course and barely any growth in BlackBerry subscribers. From the little bit of BB 10 I’ve seen so far, however, the wait may be worth it.

Expect to hear much about BlackBerry Flow at the launch event: This is RIM’s tightly integrated method of quickly navigating through the operating system in a consistent manner. BlackBerry Hub is the centralized communications center while the BlackBerry software keyboard should provide for fast, accurate entry.

There’s more to smartphone success than hardware and the OS, however. It seems like RIM has also learned the lesson that mobile apps and content deals are also important. On the app side, the company has put enormous effort into courting developers, even poking fun at itself in a music video. (Hear what RIM’s Alec Saunders has to say about that in our podcast interview.)

As a result, tens of thousands of apps are likely to be available once the new devices launch. And just today, RIM shared details of its unified content store, listing out all of the media partners, along with news of next-day television content availability. Add in support from carriers — all four major operators in the US plan to sell the new BlackBerry devices — and the puzzle pieces of potential are all there.

The most likely outcome

What are the odds that Research In Motion has a hit with the new BlackBerry 10 devices? I’ll have a better idea when I attend the launch event, of course — and I’ll be live-blogging from there — but based on the limited information I have so far, RIM should at least be staying in the smartphone game.

As I’ve said to many over the past few months, the new devices should appeal to current BlackBerry owners. My unanswered question now is: Will there be enough to sway people away from iOS and Android phones? Until we know more, I think it’s a safe bet that RIM keeps its current user-base happy and possibly steals some market share from its peers.

Either way, if RIM delivers what I expect in BB 10, it stays relevant in a market where nearly 6 billion people don’t yet have a smartphone. There’s much growth to be found yet, even if BB 10 doesn’t unseat the current smartphone incumbents. But even with the right recipe and ingredients, there’s no guarantees for RIM. Challenges still loom for the company as whole and maintaining a sliver of market share may not be enough for the long road ahead.

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Sprint was the last of the big four to admit it would sell BlackBerry 10 devices. An official Sprint statement made to BGR confirmed it on Friday, while AT&T, Verizon Wireless and T-Mobile all confirmed their  plans to Reuters on Wednesday.

The world is certainly bigger than just the U.S. but this development is still a largely positive one for RIM. We’ve seen in the past the good products without the proper marketing and support from carriers have largely failed. Palm’s exclusive deal to sell the Palm Pre only on Sprint initially, is a good example, although there were obviously other issues at play. Look at the original Motorola Droid, on the other hand: Verizon pumped millions into promoting it and the phone kicked off a string of Droid successes for Motorola and the Android market at large.

That’s exactly the kind of success RIM needs with its BlackBerry 10 handsets. The company was ill-prepared for the transition to touchscreen hardware and interfaces that started in 2007 and has generally been losing customers and market share ever since. A feeble attempt to graft touch onto a traditional BlackBerry in 2010 — remember the Torch? — wasn’t the answer.

RIM’s best response is sure to be the completely new BlackBerry 10 system, which is looking good so far. Clearly, it’s good enough for the carriers to show interest, and in the U.S., the carriers are still the kingmakers … unless your name is Apple, that is.

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Wearable computing becomes the next mobile frontier. We’ve seen some strides forward in this area, but it’s still a young market. I suggested that we’d see more of these devices and we did: smart watches, health monitoring gadgets, and Google’s Project Glass, for example. Wearable computing isn’t mainstream just yet and probably won’t be for some time.

We’ll remotely connect to our smart homes. I predicted two specifics here. The first, more companies trying to put sensors and services into homes, has held up. Automation services and products are coming from ISPs, networking companies and legacy security businesses. The second had to do with more DIY solutions being used by consumers but I’ve seen little evidence of that.

A jump in wireless home broadband adoption. I’m actually not sure how many consumers are buying wireless service for their home broadband needs, but I was correct about mobile broadband companies pitching this as a cord-cutting solution. You can, for example, buy an LTE router for the home as part of Verizon’s Home Fusion service. No more cord!

Windows Phone usage grows, but slower than expected. I guess it depends on your expectations. Windows Phone usage has grown, but not as fast as some would like. I noted that Windows Phone wouldn’t have double-digit market share in 2012, which appears accurate. However, I expected Windows Phone market share to surpass that of BlackBerry at some point this year. It’s difficult to say, as neither Microsoft nor its partners have shared sales data, while this week RIM said it sold 6.9 million handsets in the most recent quarter. I’d estimate sales between the two platforms are close to even and it’s clear that RIM’s sales didn’t fall as fast I thought.

Windows tablets in 2012 will sell like Android tablets did in 2011. Android tablets had a rough start in 2011 just as Windows tablets have so far this year. I noted “Tablet choice for consumers next year will be iPad first, Android second and Windows third,” and that seems correct for now. Of course, it’s early for Windows tablets; I didn’t anticipate that Surface Pro and some other Windows 8 tablets wouldn’t appear until 2013.

Research In Motion will no longer exist as we know it today. There were some management shakeups, but otherwise, RIM is still alive and kicking. I was completely wrong when I said “By year-end, I suspect the company will be purchased, mainly for its patents, or will refocus as a services-oriented entity.” The very fact that BlackBerry 10 devices are expected on Jan. 30 suggests that RIM will live to fight another year.

Nokia uses Symbian as a backup plan (but doesn’t call it Symbian). It doesn’t appear that Nokia has a backup plan. There was talk of Android lately — something I suggested 2.5 years ago — but it’s too late for Nokia to enter the crowded Android market.

The patent wars worsen. This is difficult to quantify, but I see no evidence that they got any better. In fact, some HTC devices were held up from being sold early in the year due to potential patent infringement. The same happened to Samsung’s Galaxy Tab 10.1 and, for a short time, the Galaxy Nexus. I expected Apple and Samsung to settle for an undisclosed amount and that didn’t happen. Instead, Apple was awarded a preliminary sum of $1.05 billion, which could yet be modified.

Dual-core devices will outsell quad-core devices. I haven’t found any statistics on this, but I’m comfortable saying this one was accurate. Why? There are still relatively few quad-core chips: NVIDIA’s Tegra 3, a specific high-end Qualcomm Snapdragon S4, and one of Samsung’s Exynos, for example. Although some of the best-selling phones use one of these — international variants of the Galaxy S III and Note 2 come to mind — only a few flagship devices have quad-core processors. Think the Droid DNA, HTC One X, Microsoft Surface RT, and Nexus 4, for example. There are others, but amid the millions of mobile devices sold in 2012, relatively few had a quad-core chip. None of Apple’s handsets yet use a quad-core system-on-a-chip, for example, nor do any of the low- to mid-range devices that make up the bulk of the market.

Apple’s next iPhone will be the iPhone 4GS. I goofed on the name even though I was correct about the inclusion of LTE. I did not predict a larger iPhone at the time. Two years ago I suggested it would desired, but that doesn’t make the 2012 prediction correct.

There will be an iPad Pro available in 2012. Again, wrong on the name, but right on the product. I described this as a higher resolution device at the same price point. I also said that the iPad would see a price reduction as a result of the new device, and it did. As an early adopter of small slates, I surprisingly failed on the iPad mini, figuring a lower-priced iPad 2 would eliminate the chances of a smaller, less expensive iPad. I’m happy to be wrong on that as the iPad mini — another form factor I suggested would be useful back in early 2011 — is my most used mobile device today.

Google will split off Motorola not long after its purchase goes through. I said this because I thought Google wouldn’t be able to compete with its partners; clearly it feels it can. I’m still not sold on the idea of this working out long-term and yet even Microsoft is doing the same with its Surface computer line.

Android’s momentum will continue thanks to Android 4.0. I see no evidence proving this one wrong. In fact, by some estimates, Android has lengthened its market share lead over iOS and other mobile platforms in 2012. Part of that is due to sales of low-priced Android devices, of course. Yet by many accounts, Android as an operating system is now close to par with iOS, thanks largely to the improvements in Android 4.0.

Hybrid apps with HTML5 will be the norm. Wrong. And the biggest example of why this was wrong is Facebook, which left HTML5 behind in favor of native apps for different platforms. There are surely successful examples of HTML5 in a standalone or hybrid mode for mobile apps, but they’re not the norm.

Intel will announce that 2013 is the year it really gets into the mobile market. Intel actually took a mobile step forward in 2012 with an Atom-powered smartphone in the Razr i. For all intents and purposes though, 2012 was still dominated by ARM-powered devices, at least until the next generation of Intel chips arrive in phones and tablets. And that will be in … 2013, so I’d say this was pretty accurate.

We’ll see a smaller Kinect in 2012, with expectations that such technology fits in a mobile device the following year. My most off-the-wall prediction was probably the most wrong. Kinect still has tons of potential but it’s not yet smaller, nor does it fit in a phone or even a tablet. We did see more gesture-based solutions in 2012, so I wouldn’t count this technology out for traditional computing uses or for mobile devices, but this was as wrong as you get.

All in all, I didn’t do too badly. And as I noted early on, it’s becoming harder to predict the fast pace of change in mobiles. So instead of rushing my 2013 predictions, I’ll be thinking long and hard over the holiday to see if my crystal ball is still working or if it turned into a Magic 8-ball: “Reply hazy, try again.”

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The timing of this cross-patent licensing agreement couldn’t come at a better time for either company. Amid relatively slow-growing sales of Lumia smartphones, Nokia’s bank account could use both the one-time payment as well as royalty revenue going forward. And Research In Motion is in no position to have its devices kept off the shelves: On Jan. 30, it plans to introduce the first BlackBerry handsets to use its new BlackBerry 10 platform; the first iteration of RIM software that appears can compete with Apple’s iOS and Google’s Android platforms.

Although the payment details are confidential, RIM shouldn’t have a problem transferring funds. Yesterday during its quarterly investor call, the company reported $2.9 billion in cash on hand. Of course, some of that is surely going to go into marketing the new BlackBerry 10 devices in order to generate sales.

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Can Microsoft and RIM succeed where others have failed?

These incumbents — Apple and Google’s Android partners — account for 89.9 percent of smartphone sales as of the third quarter of 2012, per IDC. Some alternative platforms, such as Palm’s webOS and Nokia’s Maemo software, entered the market only to disappointingly disappear: webOS is now an open-source platform and Maemo became MeeGo, which Nokia abandoned when it chose to use Microsoft’s Windows Phone software. Windows Phone has been around for two years but has relatively little in the way of sales to show for it.

With Windows Phone 8, however, Microsoft now has its best chance for success. It appears that Research In Motion’s BlackBerry 10 system, which will be unveiled on Jan. 30, is RIM’s last-ditch effort at relevancy as well. I’ve used, and like using, Windows Phone 8 and I also like what I’ve seen from RIM as it has shared limited details of BlackBerry 10. But I’m unlikely to switch platforms now and based on the timing of these two products, I expect many current smartphone owners to avoid switching as well.

What can a new smartphone platform offer at this point?

There are a few reasons why I think this, with the first being the maturity of the current smartphone platforms. After five years in this current age, all the heavy lifting is done, meaning the biggest platform breakthroughs have already been made. Put another way: All of the recent incremental upgrades to iOS and Android are just that: incremental. The pace of change for a native smartphone operating system has slowed and the changes themselves are mainly small features or minor user interface tweaks.

Of course, it’s always nice to have more options. And in my opinion, some native smartphone features are actually better on Windows Phone than on Android or iOS.

The People hub in Windows Phone, for example, makes it easy to see all of your contacts, their social status, updates and photos. While the approach is sound, and perhaps even better than contact management on alternatives, one could always add Facebook sync to their phone for a similar experience. So the value of the People hub is diminished when making comparisons.

And while RIM employees I’ve spoken with tell me that the BlackBerry fan base is excited by BlackBerry 10, nobody at RIM answers me directly when I ask, “Yes, but what feature(s) will broaden the BlackBerry base?” which has been shrinking over time.

Consumers aren’t buying hardware, they’re investing in platforms

I’ve been saying this for months, if not years: The battle for smartphone dollars is only partially won or lost by the hardware itself. The longer a handset owner sticks with one platform, the more they invest in content and apps that only work with that platform. This lock-in cost — something I mused about over two years ago — is a potential barrier to switching. And for those who invested early in a platform, as much as four or five years, its highly unlikely a switch will occur. Who wants to re-buy premium apps, books, videos and other content?

To Microsoft’s credit, it has more of a platform play than Research in Motion does. Between Windows 8 and its Xbox Live service, Microsoft has a wide range of support for music, videos, games and more. So far, however, that platform strength hasn’t equated to Windows Phone sales. Microsoft’s Xbox 360 has the been the best-selling console for 23 consecutive months and total lifetime unit sales hit 70 million as of Microsoft’s most recent fiscal quarter. Yet, Windows Phone shipments in the third quarter of this year are estimated to be 3.6 million handsets. To put that in perspective: 1.3 million Android devices are activated each day. And Apple just sold 2 million iPhone 5 handsets in China during this past weekend.

Maybe there won’t be a third-horse in this race after all

Barring any major smartphone advances by Microsoft or RIM now, neither appears poised to become a third horse in smartphones, at least when it comes to smartphone switchers. Bad timing and prior consumer investment are sure to hold back both platforms, at least in areas where smartphone penetration has already reached the tipping point. Could either of these do well in other regions, however?

Yes, they can, but the upside appears limited in my opinion. Even in areas where the smartphone population is low, both platforms are competing against low-priced but still capable Android handsets or older, and less expensive, iPhone models. Even so, I think the idea of catering a low-cost device to first-time smartphone buyers — exactly what Nokia is doing with its Lumia 620 — is a smart play at this point. That strategy may not get you or I to switch platforms, but it could rack up sales through first-timers.

Whether you currently own a smartphone or still have an old feature phone, I’d be curious to hear your thoughts: What will it take for you to switch to or initially start with Windows Phone 8 or BlackBerry 10?

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