Blab, a Seattle-based company, has emerged with a tool that lets companies do just that, with visualizations of where conversations will pop up from more than 50,000 sources, including Facebook, Tumblr, Twitter, YouTube, blogs and news outlets. It does this by paying close attention to where a conversation is now and then predicting based on what other conversations it could look like. For example, if people started talking about a previous Amazon Web Services outage on Twitter and then the conversation moved to blogs and then to mainstream media outlets, that same pattern could happen in the case of another AWS outage. That’s why measuring the trajectory of each conversation and storing it for future reference is critical to Blab’s operations.

Blab also shows the top three influencers of a given conversation. Comments from more influential people can help Blab identify what the dominant ideas will be around a particular topic. Following Hugo Chavez’s death, for example, customers could have seen that the Bolivarian Revolution was going to turn out to be the hottest area of discussion.

The Blab tool shows the probability and confidence of its predictions, so customers can get a sense of certainty. Possible use cases include updating advertisements and press releases with keywords and ideas to reflect forthcoming trends and get better results.

Predictive analytics and modeling have already become popular. Now companies are thinking up new ways to make predictions based on unstructured data that businesses can get a hold of, and that’s where Blab fits in. There’s also PredPol, which predicts where crime will happen, so police officers can focus on specific areas, and MindMeld, which offers up information that could be useful based on your speech. Researchers have also been trying to gain insights on possible medical treatments and, yes, social-media trends.

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All of what happened in 2012 sets up next year to be even more important for the company, as Tim Cook and Co. must figure out how to continue dazzling customers with new have-to-have devices and investors with promising returns. Here’s some of what we’ll be watching for from Apple as the calendar flips to 2013.

iPhones for all my carrier friends!

2013 won’t just be the year we see a T-Mobile iPhone. We’re likely to see a China Mobile iPhone and maybe even an NTT DoCoMo iPhone as well. Fragmentation in global LTE bands has already forced Apple to produce three different versions of the iPhone 5, breaking its long tradition of making a single device that works globally. As more European and Asian operators launch LTE in their own regional configurations and frequencies, Apple will have to start tweaking its devices further if it hopes to reach the same addressable market of its previous iPhone generations. So if Apple is optimizing iPhones specifically for Verizon and AT&Ts’ bands, there’s no reason it can’t create a special TD-SCDMA device for the China Mobile, the world’s largest carrier by subscribers. For that matter there would be nothing standing in the way of capturing other global operators that have previously been left out of Apple’s smartphone party.  –  Kevin Fitchard

The patent wars wind down

This should be the year that Apple winds down the distracting legal battles it’s waged since early 2010. To protect the design of its mobile devices, Apple has stationed expensive lawyers in courts all over the world. But it’s not clear these tactics are having any significant effect. Instead, Apple’s been forced to divulge closely held proprietary information about its process and culture. And despite a jury awarding Apple a billion dollars from Samsung after ruling that it deliberately copied the iPhone and iPad, Apple’s biggest and most important hardware competitor continues to churn out popular and well-received devices. And there’s still a chance the award could be reduced. CEO Tim Cook has repeatedly signaled his distaste for these legal entanglements and under his watch Apple has begun to defuse the full-on “thermonuclear war” Steve Jobs began against Android. The company reached an important settlement with HTC this year, and Motorola could be next. 2013 could be the year that Apple and Samsung both decide that, while the stakes are high, this is a battle that should be fought in stores, not in courts. – Erica Ogg

Jony Ive’s new human interface in iOS 7

One of the most significant shifts at Apple in 2012 should result in a bigger one next year: the design of the software that powers your iPhone and iPad. Longtime head of iOS Software Scott Forstall was ousted from Apple, while his duties were distributed among other executives. Jony Ive, Apple’s industrial design guru, was bequeathed responsibility for iOS software design as part of his duties heading up the new Human Interface group. When iOS 7 is released sometime next fall, it’s a good bet we’ll see some changes in the design of the software. Ive has reportedly been lobbying against the gaudy skeuomorphic details that Forstall had championed — the linen textures, green felt, stitched leather trim, wooden bookcases, etc. — and with him in charge, we should start to see a cleaner, more modern look develop. And since the same person is now in charge of the hardware and the software design, iOS should more elegantly reflect the iPhone hardware’s capabilities. –Erica Ogg

A smart watch for the masses

A number of watches that work with or use Apple products have hit the market, but none have actually been delivered by Apple itself. Instead, we’ve seen watch straps for the iPod nano and several third-party smart watches that work with iOS: the Pebble and MetaWatch Strata come to mind. While mainstream consumers aren’t exactly clamoring for such devices, these two generated more than $10.5 million in funding on Kickstarter, the bulk of that total coming from Pebble buyers. That’s no small dollar figure for what’s generally considered a niche device. Right now, Apple finally has everything it needs to create its own smart watch as a complement to its mobile devices and computers. The iOS platform is already more than capable enough for an intelligent Apple-designed wristwatch, and Apple has plenty of experience with touchscreens and communications hardware. A small iOS watch with Bluetooth 4.0, GPS and Wi-Fi could be created with support for companion apps such as exercise or health trackers as well as iTunes support for wireless music listening. I wouldn’t expect touch input to be supplemented with Siri for voice control on a smart watch as the device would need an always-on internet connection, but I’m not counting that possibility out either. In 2013, the time is right for Apple to enter, and possibly own, the smart watch industry. –Kevin Tofel

An evolving iTunes music experience

Apple has long been investigating alternative iTunes music listening model, and 2013 might be the year it makes a big move. Apple just recently integrated iTunes with iCloud and has been tinkering with the user interface, but the way people are listening to music — and their attitudes toward ownership of content — are changing. It’s been reported that Apple is working to develop a “Spotify-like” streaming web radio service that would be interspersed with its own iAds. While iTunes still sells the vast majority of individual tracks, the experience is lacking when compared to more seamless and popular subscription music services like Pandora and Spotify. Apple’s problem is that iTunes has become clunky software that encompasses so much more than music: there are also videos, apps, podcasts, iTunes U and books. Next year could be when Apple gets back to its digital music roots and appeals to users looking for a simple, streaming, music-focused app customized to their listening preferences. –Erica Ogg (Image courtesy Shutterstock / Elaine Barker)

More experimentation in mobile payments

Apple has dipped it its toe into mobile payments and commerce with Passbook, which allows people to hold on to their coupons, tickets and loyalty cards in a single app that presents information on the iPhone’s lock screen. But the potential is there for Apple to go even further: by using its millions of credit cards on file to create a Passbook-enabled payment system that can work at retail locations. Passbook already allows Starbucks Card users to pay with their iPhone when they get to a store. Apple has so far declined to include NFC in the iPhone and it may never integrate the technology. But it doesn’t need to if it relies on geo-fencing, barcodes or other possible mobile payment methods. Apple could also integrate payments with iAds to help deliver local offers or even allow people to pay directly for a product from an iAd, helping make mobile ads more attractive. This would be a big step for Apple and would require a lot of collaboration with merchants online and in stores. Apple might just start with a digital wallet approach, making it easy to pay for online goods first with an iTunes log-in and password. That would compete with PayPal, Google Wallet and offerings from credit cards like V.me from Visa. Eventually, Apple could move in-store using Passbook. – Ryan Kim

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To be clear, this isn’t about finality or absolutes, and we should especially not think in that fashion in a field such as digital media and its technologies – a field that is forever transforming. We should, however, consider the subject of maturity in its relative sense, in comparison to points of reference: a time, a sector, a different pace, perspectives that always evolve.

Media, as a segment, has always been unique (and fortunate) in its public relations. After all, it’s perhaps the only sector that reports on itself. The challenge then is to sift through the noise and vested interest. To help us out, we can rely on the cold, disinterested financial markets.

Here’s what we have observed:

(1) There has been venture capital consolidation, leading to fewer individual points with bigger and possibly less adventurous pools to deploy.

(2) There is an increased emphasis on revenues and earnings (as distinct from pure potential and option value), accentuated by post-IPO flagship properties that have been penalized as the operation has not kept up with the optionality.

(3) A significant portion of M&A activity has consisted of smallish “acqui-hires“ that take out the upside of willing sellers before the startup has hit its theoretical stride.

(4) Cash accumulation by some of the largest competitors continues, and sometimes the cash is even sent back to shareholders through dividends or buybacks.

(5) Many of the sector leaders have underperformed relative to analyst growth expectations in the latest reporting period.

With this backdrop, a number of predictions are in order. Think of these as New Year’s forecasts if you like, considering the season, but more truly they’re observations for the visible future.

• With maturation in the underlying assets, look for maturation in the way these are funded. As we climb up from small and early venture equity to mid-stage to late-stage to growth equity, buyout finance, and even debt capital, look for all of these follow-on pieces to increase in prominence and traffic. Some of the sector linchpins are already tapping the bond markets and securing debt ratings, which reminds us that media was at one time a borrowing sector (when it was old enough).

• Look for greater business emphasis on volume, capabilities and capitalization. While it pays to be small, nimble, and agile – able to navigate sharp turns in periods of high volatility and find plenty of new openings into which to dive – when the terrain is calmer and the openings narrower, this value proposition can start to lose its charm. Look for dominance (if not survival) to overtake iteration as buzzword of choice in our vernacular.

• In the strategic community, look for M&A activity to take place based on the integration of disparate parts. We have already observed the confluence of media and commerce, of finance and technology, of media and finance, and obviously media and technology. Look for these combinations to continue and for strategic directions to be set on an increasingly integrated field, where the distinctions will be blurrier between retailer and media outlet, between hardware and software company, and, most notably, between information and money flows.

• In keeping with the motifs of size, capital and integration, look for hardware to assume a more central place in the imagination of founders and the strike zones of buyers and investors. In comparison to software, this realm is more capital intensive, longer cycled, and difficult to “pivot” – which is alright when the turbulence is diminished and the money is perhaps more patient.

• Lastly, look for traditional media to garner increased attention from new media. This sub-segment that was at one time the only segment had been of late forgotten. As the breathlessness for novelty subsides and competition for market share and revenue intensifies, traditional media will be revisited and its audience and communities recognized for untapped value.

There are two overarching themes in these assorted observations and the handful of forecasts presented: On one hand, convergence and overlap (of sectors as well as capital sources); and, on the other, a progression from an era that was arguably defined by its financial ventures to one that is more highly strategic in nature.

Seeing these parallel patterns from another angle still, we note a transition from the more or less speculative gambit to a market that is structured, calculated, and framed within a narrower band of potential outcomes. We are seeing, in short, that digital media is verging on adulthood at last.

Dan Ramsden is founder and partner at CoRise. He blogs at discourseandnotes.com; follow him on Twitter @d_ramsden.

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It’s still all relatively stealthy – that link above won’t tell you much – but the company has nonetheless announced $650k in seed financing from the Austrian government-funded Federal Promotion Bank.

In a statement, CEO Hubertus Hofkirchner said Prediki’s patent-pending technology would be able to “unveil information about the future where traditional market research and opinion survey instruments have proven unreliable or inapplicable”, for clients ranging from companies to governments.

Hofkirchner has form in this business. He was formerly CEO of a company called Redmonitor, which dealt in financial predictions and sold out to CMC Markets , a UK-based derivatives dealer. However, Prediki’s technology has also evolved out of systems that have been used for political polling.

“In the past, the base technology upon which we’re building was mostly used for political forecasts,” Hofkirchner told me. “In recent times it’s probably twice as good as opinion polls for a fraction of the cost. But it was very hard in the past to apply the technology to anything else.”

“There has been lots of work done to apply the technology to things like sales forecasts, pharmaceutical approval forecasts, technology adoption, evaluating innovations, evaluating media campaigns and so on – lots of work has been done by various players in the last 10 years. But, while there has been success in the predictive performance of these things, nobody ever cracked the problem that it’s really hard to come up with a model for a truly generic all-purpose prediction market.”

So does Prediki’s technology work? What am I, a fortune teller? But the Austrian government seems to have some faith in it (after all, it can apparently be used for NGOs and even governments), so let’s see. The big unveiling should take place sometime in the first quarter of next year.

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“These things go from being very powerful computers to frankly what we think of today as a super computer,” Bradley said Monday at the Mobile Future Forward conference in Seattle. Speaking on a panel about what the wireless industry will look like in year 2020, Bradley laid out what forthcoming advances in device and network technology will mean for the consumer.

While today’s state-of-the art devices have some impressive specs — 1.5 GHz quad-core processors, gigs of storage and multi-megabit connections – one only has to look back at the devices of 2004 to see how much in the industry can innovate in the space of eight years, Bradley said. In 2004, the BlackBerry 700 and the Treo 650 were little more than glorified PDAs, and the hottest mobile data service was email.

Just as we couldn’t envision eight years ago the apps and services we would use in 2012, it’s difficult to predict the mobile data use cases of 2020, but Bradley took a crack at it anyway.

The smartphone has already replaced clocks and cameras today, but in the future it will replace wallets and even ATMs as mobile payment and banking services become more sophisticated. Beyond financial transactions, mobile phones will allow consumers to bring their identities to any context. They’ll replace the keys in your pocket, they’ll allow you to interact with your connected home and become immediately recognized by any public digital interface in between, Bradley said.

Through augmented reality technology like Nokia’s City Lens, consumers will begin viewing the world through their phone cameras, and through flexible display technology’s like Corning’s Willow glass, consumers will be able to convert a small-screened phone into a tablet, a news reader or whatever form factor they desire, Bradley said.

There will be challenges achieving that vision, Bradley said, primary among them building the huge security apparatus that will protect this increasingly exposed personal data. The other big factor will be spectrum, which carriers will need by the dump truck load in order keep adding capacity and bandwidth to their networks, Bradley said.

There is one other consideration that wasn’t really mentioned at the panel: cost. If the price point for mobile data remains at around $10-$15 a gigabyte, then lightning fast connections and powerful phone and cloud-based app won’t get used.

Photo courtesy of Shutterstock user 3Dstock

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In a note to clients, Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty shared the results of the Alphawise survey, comparing its results to Morgan Stanley’s existing estimates. Based on the survey, she suggests Apple could ship as many as 36 million iPhones in the fourth quarter of 2011, considerably higher than the 28 million predicted by Wall Street. Not only that, but she also says that according to survey data, the iPhone should do even better during the first quarter of 2011, selling as many as 41 million units worldwide.

The iPad stands to gain from the desire expressed by 27 percent of respondents to own a tablet in the near term, something that Huberty believes could put Apple on track to sell 81 million iPads globally in 2012, which is much higher than the 52 million Morgan Stanley was predicting independently of the survey. And if Apple wants to boost sales even further, Huberty estimates that a $100 price cut for the iPad could result in about 15 million more sales worldwide.

Of course, these predictions should be taken with a grain of salt. The Alphawise survey upon which they’re based depends on polling customers for their own opinions; stated intentions and plans about buying electronics at a future date don’t always pan out, and may also have been excessively optimistic since the survey took place immediately following the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, before the year-end cash crunch resulting from holiday shopping really makes its effects felt. Still, the numbers do show that Apple devices are well-positioned among consumers, and developments in the new year like the release of an iPad 3 could definitely propel sales to new lofty heights.

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By the numbers

Steve Jobs is hosting this year’s keynote, and generally speaking, he kicks off Apple’s public events with a look at the company’s success to date. Since this is a developer-focused event, expect to hear about the App Store’s growth, an updated figure regarding revenue paid out to developers (over $2 billion at last count), and possibly some numbers about in-app subscription adoption, since that has turned out to be quite a nice little victory for Apple. There should be an acknowledgement of the record-setting sellout of this year’s batch of WWDC tickets, and how that reflects the health of Apple’s development platforms.

Jobs will also likely talk about the success of iTunes, and the number of active accounts on file associated with the iTunes store, especially if today is the day Apple unveils its cloud music service.

Lion, iOS 5 and iCloud

The known variables about today’s talk are OS X Lion, iOS 5 and iCloud. Apple issued an official press release stating it would be talking about these three software releases specifically, though it didn’t elaborate much about any of the above. I expect Apple to talk about these new software offerings in the order I’ve listed them here, since we know less about each product as we move down the list, ending with iCloud.

OS X Lion has gotten a lot of press, and the features are not really a secret thanks to Apple’s decision to release developer preview builds of the OS. We’ve covered some of the more notable new features of Lion, and detailed many of the smaller changes it brings as well. What Apple will show off today will better reflect Lion as a polished, shipping product, and they’ll probably announce a release date, too, which could come very soon.

iOS 5 is Apple’s next big update for the mobile OS that powers its iPhone, iPod touch and iPad line of devices, and though specific information about the update are few and far between, there have been reports that show notifications and other improvements are likely on the way. Over the weekend, iTunes users also discovered an Apple slip, noting automatic over-the-air updates could be in store, too, thanks to a line included in iTunes referring to the feature. Apple also is thought to have hired a notifications specialist, reinforcing the idea that iOS 5 will change how those work. Apple will also probably take some time while unveiling iOS 5 features to bring out key development partners (like EAand Gameloft, for example) to show off new APIs in action.

iCloud looks like it will be Apple’s big unveil at this year’s conference, since there’s a lot of excitement surrounding this product. We don’t yet have a really good idea what shape iCloud will take, but John Gruber said Sunday we should think about it like iTunes, or, in other words, a repository for all the information you regularly sync to and from iOS devices, but one that resides in the cloud, instead of locally on a computer. We’ve also discussed other potential features of the service, including cloud music and media streaming, and how it might benefit iOS developers.

One more thing

At big public Apple events, we often see Steve Jobs reveal something that few, if any, saw coming. This “one more thing,” has become the biggest draw of these addresses for some. Some have speculated Apple will indeed unveil new iPhone hardware today, despite many reports to the contrary, and that this will be the “one more thing.” Supply-side, things have been awfully quiet, which is generally not the case leading up to a new iPhone model release (we almost always see reports of hardware going into full-scale production before an update), so don’t get your hopes up.

iTunes music streaming services could be the last “surprise” announcement at WWDC, especially if Apple doesn’t include them in the basic iCloud package. It would make sense if Apple planned it that way, because according to reports, the company’s negotiations with record labels came right down to the wire. If no deal was reached, Apple could leave it out without affecting their other planned announcements.

That’s the short version of what you can expect from Steve Jobs and the Apple executive team in just a few short hours. Stay tuned for our live coverage, and detailed reports on all the new features announced today.

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Cisco predicted last June that Internet traffic would grow by 4.3 times through 2014 to three-quarters of a zettabyte, but at that point in time, video would make up 91 percent of the traffic. This was a year ago, so it’s possible the upcoming data will match up, but the downgrade in expectations from video would be significant. So while waiting for the expectations for 2015 to come out from Cisco so we can see if the two sources match up, check out some of the other stats Informa predicts.

The firm expects Asia will soon become the dominant source of web traffic with a 42-percent share by 2015, surpassing North America. China is driving some of that growth, but won’t be the dominant contributor of traffic in the region by 2015. However, China is expected to have 670 million Internet uses by that time, according to the report. Total global traffic will reach 1.2 million petabytes — or roughly 1.2 zettabytes — and while video will be half of that traffic, other services such as cloud backup applications will also grow. This is good for services such as Dropbox and other consumer cloud storage providers.

The research makes some interesting distinctions between traffic growth and how people use the Internet that I’d love to explore in more depth, as it could help ISPs figure out how to best serve their customers and predict their bandwidth needs. For example, according to Informa:

Asia as a region has strong divisions between developing and developed markets, but even within these segments there are major differences. South Korea and Japan both enjoy the fastest broadband speeds in the world, but their Internet consumption is very different. South Korea is the country with the highest per-head usage rate in the world while Japan’s per-head usage is lower than Spain and Italy. There are several key reasons for this difference. The mobile Internet is far more developed in Japan than South Korea. Piracy in Japan is far lower than in South Korea, where acquiring content via online storage sites is a mainstream activity. And the high cost of backhaul in Japan means that online video services are typically of a relatively low quality compared with their Western peers, despite the fast connections that many users have.

I wonder if the world will devolve toward a universal Internet culture as faster speeds are deployed worldwide, or what social and cultural constraints might continue to emerge as we rely on the web for more and more of our storage, communications and even knowledge. Either way, we’re going to be sending a lot of data.

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In a column for Canada’s National Post, Dan Gardner eviscerates the global punditocracy, which he points out gets it wrong most of the time. Gardner, author of Future Babble, points to a recent issue of Foreign Policy magazine, which makes no mention of the failed/wrong predictions.

In the same issue, Foreign Policy features an essay on entrepreneurship and education in China, India and the U.S., raising the specter of the U.S. falling behind. In my lifetime, I’ve heard similar arguments being made about the U.S. falling behind Japan and South East Asia. I have no idea whether the assertions made in the article will come true or not,  but I do know one thing: In time, the author will be proven right or wrong. Such are the perils of the game of predictions.

It is not just predictions; sometimes analysis and its value changes depending on when you look. For example, in 2005, we said Myspace was a good acquisition by News Corp. It was a way to go-up against MTV. At $580 million, it was a bargain. A $900 million-plus advertising deal with Google made the acquisition much more affordable. But somewhere along the way, Facebook happened. Myspace became an executive quagmire, and the whole thing is falling apart. The pendulum has swung between two extremes.

Predictions are particularly hard in the technology industry, as it morphs and changes rapidly. The best you can do is identify trends or macro themes correctly. Last year, at an event, I said Comcast, Facebook, Apple, Twitter and Amazon would make serious headlines in 2010. And they did — all year long! (Those safe predictions got me a rap on the fingers from some of my readers.)

Looking into 2011, I don’t really have many predictions. What I have are some reasonable guesses, and since I’ve made these in public forums, I’m happy to repeat them. For instance, at a recent Mobile Monday event, my 2011 prediction was that Samsung was going to become the dominant Android-based device maker and it will come at the expense of early Android leaders — Motorola and HTC.

Samsung has already shown strong sales for its Galaxy S series of Android-based smartphones (over 9.3 million), tablets (one million) and more recently, it announced a new Android-based music player. It also owns the entire component food chain –processors, memory, flash storage and screens — which gives it a key advantage, as most mobile phone makers are grappling with component capacity constraints. In 2011, the battle will really come down between Samsung and Apple.

I shared some of my thoughts with folks from Nieman Journalism Lab, and here are my predictions for the media industry:

When I sit down and think about the future of media, I see two core problems with the media business at large. Most media entities tend to define themselves by features — magazines, newspapers, television and radio — while the audience aka the customers see media entities as “information” resources.

I think we are going to see the continuous destruction of value in the media industry because folks refuse to look beyond what is obvious and comfortable. That is precisely why we are going to see [the] media industry lose [its] shirt on ill-conceived mobile applications, mostly because publishers want to replicate what they know best — an ambiguous, non-measurable advertising paradigm — on digital devices.

Similarly, the media entities will all come to a realization that chasing page views is a zero-sum game, and they are playing with a losing hand against zero-cost pageview-generation megafarms like Facebook, especially at a time when the modes of content consumption and discovery are changing. Content farms like Demand Media and Associated Content are commoditizing the value of banner ads and page views.

1. Bloomberg will continue its march and become one of the most powerful media entities in the U.S. It has television assets to go along with web, print offerings (Bloomberg BusinessWeek), and data terminals — making it a company in the business of selling information.
2. We will see continued implosion of large-scale media barring a handful of national/transnational brands such as The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. 2011 is going to be particularly hard for companies that have cut back on their core competency journalism.
3. MSNBC [will] make a serious bid to acquire The Huffington Post.
4. The Discovery Group will become one of the major media groups. The company has done a good job of merging its cable television and web businesses with a thriving e-commerce business, making it less reliant on pure advertising revenues. In 2011, Oprah joins the Discovery family. What’s good for Oprah is good for Om!

The media industry’s mobile app problems are already coming home to roost. Women’s Wear Daily notes:

Many magazines that are available on the iPad, such as Esquire, People and The New Yorker, have not posted their digital single-issue sales to the ABC. But Vanity Fair sold 8,700 digital editions of its November issue, down from its average of about 10,500 for the August, September and October issues. Glamour sold 4,301 digital editions in September, but sales dropped 20 percent in October and then another 20 percent, to 2,775, in November. GQ’s November edition sold 11,000 times, which was its worst performance since April (when the iPad was released) and represents a slight decline from its average digital sales of 13,000 between May and October.

After Wired’s enormous debut month, the magazine averaged 31,000 digital sales between July and September, but even that fell in October and November, with sales coming in at 22,000 and 23,000, respectively. (For comparison, the magazine sold 130,000 total print editions for October and November.)

Here are predictions from some of our channels:

• Kevin Tofel has an extensive list of his mobile predictions, in case you are interested.
• Earth2Tech has its top ten solar trends for 2011.
• NewTeeVee folks are arguing for more cord cutting next year.

Image courtesy Flickr user islandguy