Apple’s share represents 3.5 percent growth compared to the last time ComScore issued this report in October 2012. And unless you missed Apple’s earnings results from the December holiday quarter, you won’t be surprised at that growth since Apple sold 48 million iPhones worldwide between October and December.

But while the company is leading in hardware sales, iOS is still far behind the Android juggernaut. Even though it fell 1.3 percent between October and December to 52.3 percent share, Android still is the most popular smartphone operating system in the U.S. Apple’s share grew 3.5 percent to a 37.8 percent share of mobile operating systems among smartphone owners, says ComScore.

Still, even in the face of evidence that Apple is doing well now, some people who watch the company and its stock are worried about what comes next and whether the company can continue to post quarterly gains of iPhone sales in established markets like the U.S. as the device nears its sixth birthday.

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Those figures are for the lower 95 percent of apps available in the market that have some kind of revenue model. In order to paint a more accurate picture of what a typical developer makes, VisionMobile lopped off the top 5 percent since those blockbuster apps would greatly skew the results.

But even among the ranks of uncelebrated developers, there’s still a lot of variation in revenues. VisionMobile estimates that more than half of all BlackBerry developers make less than $500 a month on their individual apps, compared to 34.7 percent of iOS developers — you make less money by developing for the iPhone but there’s a better chance you’ll at least make some.

Another point in BlackBerry’s favor is the relatively low cost of developing for the platform. The typical BlackBerry app costs $15,181 to bring to market, compared to an average of $27,463 in iOS and $22,637 in Android development costs, the study found.

None of those advantages, though, seem to matter that much to developers, who all seem to be jumping from what they view as a sinking ship. Of cross-platform developers currently support BlackBerry, 41 percent plan to give RIM the heave ho, according to Vision’s surveys. What’s worse, 14% of devs that code primarily for BlackBerry are now looking for an alternative platform.

RIM may be bad off, but at least it can point to others that are faring far worse. The biggest exodus of developers, 60 percent, is coming from Qualcomm’s BREW platform, reflecting the large-scale shift away from feature phones to smartphones. Symbian, which Nokia is retiring, and WebOS, which HP has basically tossed back into the market, are witnessing more than half of their developers depart. Samsung’s Bada, Flash and MeeGo are all in steep decline, as well.

Where are all these developers going? According to Vision, they’re heading straight to Microsoft. Windows Phone was the top new destination for developers with 57 percent saying they would adopt the platform this year.

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“Android has been criticized for offering a more complex user experience than its competitors, but the company’s wide carrier support and large app selection is appealing to new smartphone customers,”  said Ross Rubin, executive director of Connected Intelligence for The NPD Group, in a statement. “Android’s support of LTE at Verizon has also made it the exclusive choice for customers who want to take advantage of that carrier’s fastest network.”

Price would seem to be a factor, since Android handset makers like HTC, LG  and Motorola make many lower-tier phones that far undercut the latest iPhone 4S. But viewing Android’s success solely in terms of price doesn’t paint the whole picture as evidenced by NPD’s sales numbers for the iPhone 3GS, which AT&T is giving away for free with a two-year contract. The 4S outsold the 3GS five to one, despite the latter’s steep discount. The iPhone 4S also outsold the 4 – which unlike the 3GS is available on three of the four nationwide networks – by 75 percent, according to NPD. If price was the biggest factor, customers had plenty of cheap iPhone options to choose from.

In addition, customers buying Android devices aren’t simply gravitating toward cheap phones. The Samsung S II and the Galaxy S 4G – handsets that measure up to the iPhone both on features and price — were the fourth and fifth best selling devices in the fourth quarter, behind the three commercially available iPhone models.

Still, the average selling price for a U.S. smartphone in the fourth quarter was $143, up from $135 in the third quarter, but down from $149 year-over-year. The release of the iPhone 4S last fall is responsible for the big quarter-over-quarter bump in average selling prices, but Android seems to be driving a long-term decline in overall U.S. smartphone pricing.

That could be both good news and bad news for the handset makers that feed the lower-end of the market. There’s still plenty of growth left in smartphones with less than 50 percent penetration in the U.S. HTC, Moto and LG have all been suffering in the smart device market – HTC just posted another weak quarter. While they could potentially take a big share of the remaining market by selling cheaper, lower-margin devices, they might not be able to achieve much in the way of follow-up. When it comes to buying their next more-expensive smartphones, those customers seem to be choosing Apple and Samsung.

Image courtesy of Flickr user geoliv

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On the iPhone 4S launch day, I lined up with about 14 other people outside our Verizon store, my Motorola Droid in hand, checking the time until the store opened. I had never owned an iPhone before, which might come as a surprise from an Apple blogger. When I got the Droid in October of 2009, AT&T was the only carrier to have the 3GS, and rumors of the iPhone coming to Verizon were still just rumors. Two years later, almost to the day, the iPhone 4S came out on my network of choice, and here we are.

Since there are likely a lot of Android users who are considering making the leap thanks to Apple’s new iPhone 4S hardware and the improvements that come with iOS 5, I thought I’d list the things I miss and don’t miss about the Android experience after making the switch to help others determine if this is the right move for them.

Things I miss about Android

Customization

Android proponents are big on pointing out the degree to which the user can customize the OS. You can use different keyboards, lock screens, launchers, even install different ROMs, right from the device. The geek in me loved tinkering around with Android, and that part of me will miss it a lot. Sure, you can jailbreak iOS and get some of the same customizations, but not to the same extent, and it requires going against Apple policies.

Notification light

On nearly all Android phones, there’s an LED that blinks when you have unread notifications. This came in handy since if I got a new notification, I could tell immediately. With the iPhone, I have to press a button to make sure there aren’t any new notifications. It’s a small difference, but the added convenience of the notification light really makes its effects felt over time.

Global sharing menu

In Android, you can share something with any service that has its app installed. I could upload a picture from the Gallery app to any Twitter client, not just the official app. Apple has made headway into making sharing better by integrating Twitter into iOS, but it’s not as good as the Android share menu. I’d be happy if Apple just added Facebook integration, though.

Free turn-by-turn navigation

Google’s free navigation app is a big advantage for Android. I’ve used it often to find obscure restaurants and other destinations while I’m driving. I have yet to find any consistently reliable, free or cheap alternatives in the App Store (but feel free to suggest something in the comments).

File system and downloads

Being able to download a file to my SD card and manipulate it with a file manager was useful. The inability to do this on my iPhone annoyed me when I wanted to download a wallpaper that only came in a ZIP archive, which of course I couldn’t download or open. I ended up transferring it over from my Mac via Photo Stream.

Things I don’t miss about Android

Laggy UI

The first thing I noticed coming to iOS from Android is just how smooth and fluid iOS is in comparison. It tracks my taps and swipes without any noticeable lag, lending to the feeling that you’re actually manipulating an object. Android has never felt the same way. Scrolling isn’t as smooth; pinch to zoom lags and stutters; and sometimes, taps take longer than they should to register. This could all be attributed to the Droid’s old hardware, of course, but reviews of even current gen devices sometimes cite similar problems.

Widgets

I feel about Android widgets the same way I feel about OS X’s Dashboard widgets: They’re a neat novelty, but not very practical. If I want to read the news, I don’t want to just stare at a news widget while headlines go by, one at a time. Call me old-fashioned, but I’d rather just launch an app.

“Real” multitasking

In Android, apps can run in the background when you’re not using them, like on a PC. In iOS, apps are suspended when they aren’t active, but are allowed to do certain things in the background. Android’s approach uses more RAM and battery life. Apple’s uses less of both while providing nearly the same experience. I’m just fine with “fake” multitasking if it uses fewer resources to accomplish the same thing.

The Android market

There’s no arguing that iOS has a wider and better selection of apps. There isn’t a single third-party Android app I’ve used that doesn’t have a better iOS alternative. Couple that with the increased presence of malware on the Android Market, and I feel pretty good about living in a walled garden.

Google integration

With iCloud, I don’t need Google integration anymore. iCloud takes care of everything important that Google did, and does it without forcing me to use a clunky web app (except in the case of uploading documents from the Mac). This is why iCloud is such a huge deal for Apple: It takes away one of Android’s core advantages and improves on it in a way that Google can’t.

Final thoughts

One of the strongest assets Apple has is its ecosystem, and that’s more apparant to me now than ever. All my mobile devices — my computer, my tablet, and my phone — are made by Apple. The tight integration between them is all part of the design: The more Apple products I use, the better my experience becomes. With my Android phone, I couldn’t really use Apple’s ecosystem to its full potential. But with my new trifecta, I can play games on my Apple TV via mirroring, take a photo and have it appear instantly on my iPad and Mac, sync with iTunes without ever having to touch a cable, and easily locate any of my devices if I ever lose one.

Sure, I could do some of those things on Android, but the experience just wasn’t as good. Some will argue that that’s representative of Apple bullying users into buying only its devices, but for me it just represents greater convenience.

Have you recently made the switch from Android to iOS? Tell us about your experience in the comments.

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The numbers mean that Apple’s iOS devices (including the iPod touch, iPhone and iPad) together make up more than half of all web use originating from mobile devices. This is especially impressive when you consider that Apple’s mobile market share when measured strictly by device sales puts it well beyond Android, which powers smartphones and tablets from a wide range of manufacturing partners in more global markets.

Android, in contrast, accounted for only 16.26 percent of overall mobile web access in September, although that’s up slightly from August, when it was responsible for 15.98 percent. RIM’s BlackBerry platform lags behind at 3.29 percent.

What do these numbers mean? Basically, Apple device users seem to be much more prone to using their devices to access the mobile web. That’s also backed up by Apple’s continued dominance in mobile browser market share, where Safari ruled in September with 55.59 percent of all mobile browser impressions.

Usage stats are a good place for Apple to lead; it means customers are comfortable and happy with the experience that iOS provides, which should lead to greater loyalty and repeat business. It also means Apple is better able to woo developers and advertising partners, who recognize that the best mobile OS is the one most able to capture a user’s attention.

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The falling fortunes of Symbian, the chaos as WebOS  withers, and hiccups at BlackBerry are pretty visible signs of the upheavals in the mobile operating systems. The change is obviously because of the rise of Internet and touch-centric operating environments such as Google’s Android and Apple’s iOS. The latest OS to fall victim to this shift is Qualcomm’s Brew OS. In a chat, Qualcomm President of Internet Services Rob Chandhok said:

[It's] not really the thing that’s in the spotlight for us anymore….we shouldn’t be too surprised: it’s been around for 10 years, there aren’t too many operating systems that have been around with only a couple of revisions in 10 years in the market….the pace might be a little bit slower than it was before, just because the market has changed.

It seems the company is going to continue pushing Brew OS, but only for low-end devices, Chandhok said. With more capable $30 Android phones popping up all over the world, I’m not sure there’s room for the Brew OS; it was formed in the non-Internet era and doesn’t have a chance in these times of “anywhere computing,” even at the low end of the spectrum.The San Diego-based Qualcomm has been spending liberally on the Android ecosystem and has dedicated a lot of resources to Google’s mobile platform. Reading between the lines, the Brew has lost its fizz!

For more in-depth analysis, we will be discussing mobile operating systems and the impact of mobile Internet on handsets and mobile services at our Mobilize 2011: The Mobile Internet Conference scheduled to be held in San Francisco on Sept. 26 and 27, 2011. Hope you will join me.

While many derided Google for bringing a knife to a gunfight, Google has responded today saying that Microsoft is trying to pull one over on everyone. Google’s David Drummond, SVP and Chief Legal Officer, said Microsoft’s offer to cooperate on the Novell bid was a “false gotcha,” that wouldn’t have necessarily afforded Google or other Android partners any protection had Google jointly purchased the Novell patents.

“Microsoft’s objective has been to keep from Google and Android device-makers any patents that might be used to defend against their attacks. A joint acquisition of the Novell patents that gave all parties a license would have eliminated any protection these patents could offer to Android against attacks from Microsoft and its bidding partners. Making sure that we would be unable to assert these patents to defend Android — and having us pay for the privilege — must have seemed like an ingenious strategy to them. We didn’t fall for it,” Drummond wrote.

What he means is that even if Google had won the Novell patents with Microsoft, Microsoft could have still licensed those same patents to another company, who could have in turn sued Google or other Android licenses. And then the Novell patents would not be a deterrent any more against attacks or would be weak leverage to force a cross-licensing deal.

The Novell patents were eventually bought by Microsoft, Apple, Oracle and EMC. But the Department of Justice in April ordered that the patents should be available for licensing at a fair price. Google is now hoping to get the DOJ to do the same with the Nortel patents, which Apple, RIM, Microsoft and others purchased for $4.5 billion last month, beating out Google in the process, something Google called “anti-competitive strategy.”

Frank Shaw, Microsoft Head of Communications, responded to Drummond’s latest comments on Twitter explaining why he thinks Google turned down Microsoft:

“Because they wanted to buy something that they could use to assert against someone else. So partnering with others & reducing patent liability across the industry is not something they wanted to help do.”

Drummond and Shaw raises a good points. Google wouldn’t want to buy something if it didn’t provide blanket protection. But Shaw points out that Google is only interested in using patents to force cross-licensing deals for itself.

The back and forth is certainly entertaining. But it still doesn’t undercut some of the other criticisms that Google has faced in the last day concerning Drummond’s original remarks. As John Gruber and others have pointed out, Drummond is quick to call the patents used to attack Android “bogus” but it didn’t say which ones nor did it explain why it was anti-competitive behavior when Apple and other bid on the Nortel patents but why it would be different if Google had won. And as some like Paul Thurrott have pointed out, Google is able to leverage its dominance in one market to offer a free product in another, disrupting the business of Microsoft, Apple and others.

Despite all the rhetoric, Google is in a tough spot. It has to obtain more patent heft. The company continues to rail against the patent system but has to work within it to compete. At some point though, if Google can’t come up with the necessary leverage or protection from regulators, it will have to start paying up. And that, Android’s competitors would probably argue, wouldn’t be anti-competitive but would actual restore competition, forcing the formerly free Android to compete against paid operating systems. We’ll just have to see whose definition of anti-competitive wins out here.

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Wi-Fi sync

Wi-Fi sync was always an option in iOS 5 beta 1 and iTunes 10.5 beta 1, but you couldn’t actually do anything with it. Now, once enabled, you can wirelessly sync with your computer, so long as both devices are on the same Wi-Fi network. This will probably be the feature that most benefits the average iOS device owner, possibly short of the new notifications system.

OTA updates

Apple has reportedly turned on the ability to update over the air with iOS 5. Updates will also apparently work over cellular data networks, although some major point releases will have to be done over Wi-Fi. Some are speculating the next beta may be made available as a wireless update now that the functionality is enabled, so we’ll have to wait and see how well it works.

Backup to iCloud as a setup option

You can now choose to backup your device to iCloud right from the initial on-device setup. Before, you had to enable this after the fact through your Settings app. It’s a small tweak, but it brings the promise of a post-PC future for iOS that much closer.

Gevey SIM unlock blocked

If you wanted to use the Gevey SIM card to unlock your factory-locked iPhone or iPad, it looks like Apple is finally closing that loophole. Users report that beta 2 disables the Gevey hardware unlock, which was initially left untouched in iOS 5 beta 1.

New lock screen Notification style

Notifications now appear in a larger font beside their relevant app icon on the lock screen, and somewhat resemble their predecessors. If you don’t respond to them, they join the other notifications, lining up in sequential order at the top of the lock screen. In my opinion, this looks like an improvement, since it gives primary focus to new alerts as they come in, while it also still keeps track of everything that you may have missed while your device is locked.

Apple has also made a number of smaller changes, like the replacement of the iCloud icon in the Settings app with the metallic one that it has used in promo materials. SMS messages also look just a tad bit different; there’s an option to Group By Album Artist (which can differ from Artist in iTunes metadata) in the Music app; swiping up in Messages will dismiss the keyboard; the Stocks widget is turned off by default, and if your Notification Center is empty, it will display “No New Notifications” instead of nothing.

Any other changes we may have missed that you’re aware of?

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Location: Moscone West in San Francisco

San Francisco’s Moscone Center can certainly accommodate more than the traditional 5,000 attendees normally allotted at WWDC. Apple could decide to make use of the full convention center and take over both the North and South venues as well. But location is not the issue. In fact, if it were, relocating to a location like Las Vegas could potentially accommodate all of Apple’s registered developers (were each to buy a ticket) without issue.

So if keeping things small and confining the conference to just 5,000 attendees is what Apple has determined is key to puling off a successful conference, then perhaps simulcasting to multiple locations or repeating the event in various regions of the world is a better way to deal with increased demand.  This makes perfect sense in the entertainment business, where entertainers are looking to maximize time spent in front of fans.  But WWDC is not about entertainment, and as much as Apple would like to spend more time with developers, it’s not nearly as easy to do remotely.

Speakers: Apple Engineers

That leaves just one scarce resource as the true reason Apple can’t afford to expand the WWDC to accommodate more developers.  The presentations and materials that are showcased at WWDC are of the highest quality (speaking from personal experience).  Each presentation is lead by an Apple Engineer. During WWDC 2010, one of the presenters had a live demonstration that started going badly, and the presenter started to choke.  Within minutes a second presenter stepped up and took over an alternate demonstration and the topic proceeded on schedule without anyone walking away feeling like they’d missed out on something.  In other words, Apple puts the same time and energy in its conference at it does it products, and that becomes much harder to do once you start playing with size.

Conclusion: WWDC 2012 Will Sell Out in Minutes

So long that Apple insists that the speakers at WWDC are all Apple Engineers and other product-related associates, then WWDC will continue to sell out in record time.  Pulling off an annual conference of this quality, using the very staff you also depend on for your core business is a very expensive undertaking.  The location will likely never change because of its proximity to the very resources (Apple employees) that make the conference a great success.  It will also likely never be repeated in different locales, given Apple’s relentless release schedules for its products (taking time out for conferences threatens this schedule).  The only opportunity would be to possibly simulcast the event around the world, and such event ever occurring at this scale in multiple locations worldwide would also be difficult and costly to pursue — likely more so than the ultimate reward would merit.  So be prepared to be close to an internet connection in 2012, because WWDC ticket sales are likely to break records yet again next year, because Apple isn’t likely to make big changes even in the face of strong demand.

Image courtesy of Flickr user adamjackson1984.

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I spoke with Humphries last night after the deal was announced, but he declined repeatedly to give details as to when or what devices may get webOS. So we have no idea if the HP Slate that Steve Ballmer, the CEO of Microsoft, was waving about at CES will continue to have Windows or webOS, but we do know that HP has a big vision for webOS — it hopes to put it across an array of mobile devices, creating a platform backed by the power of HP’s sales and distribution channels to which developers will flock.

A huge portion of HP’s message around this deal is aimed at reassuring developers that webOS isn’t a dying platform and that HP is willing to invest. Humphries was adamant that developers will find a supportive HP (GigaOM Pro, sub req’d). “We’re clearly giving them dev tools, a platform they can port to, an easy financial model that’s viable to them and confidence that the OS will be scaled globally and on many different form factors,” Humphries said.

It’s clear that HP is modeling its mobile computing vision on Apple’s platform, and when I asked how many mobile operating systems the world has room for, Humphries hedged for a bit saying the market is large and that it was difficult to see how things might develop, however when pressed he said that only webOS and Apple really have the ability to scale across many devices and many markets.

As for HP’s willingness to be more open than Apple, perhaps taking a page from its personal computing heritage, it doesn’t look good. “Apple is proprietary but it also has a tremendous relationship with the app developer,” Humphries said. “And it may have a closed OS on which the app community can sit, but the apps make it open.”