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Smartphones do too much: convergence is giving way to divergence

Saad Fazil, Guest Contributor — Sun, 17 Mar 2013 19:00:06 +0000

For years, the holy grail of personal tech has been convergence. Now that we essentially have a version of that in the form of smartphones – which allow fairly sophisticated computing for most daily needs, from accomplishing work to playing music – ironically many of us are discovering the need to extract some of those functions and instead carry multiple devices, such as a smartphone, a tablet, and a smartwatch all at once.

I call this trend divergence; let’s look at a few factors that are driving it.

Increasing complexity

Moore’s Law, which predicts that the number of components in integrated circuit chips doubles every 18 months, made it possible to drive more power from a small footprint of electronics. With Moore’s Law on their side and users demanding to carry more with less, entrepreneurs seized the opportunity, and began fitting more functions into a single device, thus paving the way to convergence.

However, as newer functions get bundled into a single device, the interface often (but certainly not always) becomes more complex. Therefore a need arises to extract certain functions in a separate device in a form factor that makes more sense for that function.

As an example, Google Glass is arguably a better form factor to capture a video while taking a roller coaster ride than trying to hold onto your phablet. And a Pebble Watch provides a simpler and easier interface to view and control music while on the go. Ironically, Moore’s Law is also playing a big role in divergence of devices: The ability to fit more power in limited space is crucial for these new form factors to work.

Horizontal solutions

Clayton Christensen explains in the Innovator’s Solution that when interfaces between components aren’t well-defined, vertically integrated products tend to do very well. For instance, the Mac did very well in the early years of personal computing in part because of the tight integration between its hardware and operating system.

Similarly, when Apple introduced the iPhone six years ago, the smartphone industry was still in a relatively early phase. Apple was able to take advantage of a lack of well-defined interfaces by joining together computing, telephony, and music in a vertically integrated device. It would have been extremely hard for a small startup to come up with a converged device like an iPhone at that time: Apple not only had expertise in both software and hardware, it also benefited strongly from its partnerships (music labels, movie studios, app developers large and small) all along the value chain.

Yet, coming on six years from when the first iPhone launched, I believe that the industry has now entered a stage where the tight coupling of mobile hardware and software, while beneficial, is not the only winning strategy. APIs and interfaces such as WiFi, Bluetooth and location platforms are well established, consistent and understood. Therefore smaller independent players such as Fitbit (disclosure: see below) and its many competitors, along with the many smart watches, credit card readers, security beacons coming out every day, can succeed by leveraging these popular interfaces and platforms to deliver new applications that function better on their own.

There’s no doubt that vertically integrated players like Apple will still have some advantages – Apple’s rumored iWatch for one would presumably provide native iOS support to do many things that something like the Pebble Watch cannot do (for example, selectively turn on app notifications; similarly it can only preview emails from Gmail on an Android device).

But thanks to these well-established platforms, we will have no shortage of newer companies venturing into the digital devices arena.

Master of one

Now that smartphones and tablets offer several functions quite satisfactorily, there is an emerging trend to solve very specific problems very well. As Nokia’s Marko Ahtisaari said in an interview with Slashgear, “there’ll be room for more and more dedicated devices that do a few things really well again.” Already Amazon’s Kindle Paperwhite remains the device of choice for those who are hardcore e-book readers, especially those who read in sunlight. Users could easily opt to read the same Kindle book on their smartphone or tablet but choose the device that does this one task best.

And I will not be shocked if specialized music players that only stream music from popular services, such as Spotify, Pandora, Rdio and the like start appearing in the market. Of course, feasibility of such devices will also require newer business models that can enable affordable data plans.

While convergence will continue to move forward in certain areas – such as in the home entertainment space, where a single TV will compress several functions offered by separate set-top boxes into one device – newer form factors, horizontal solutions, specialization, and above all human ingenuity will ensure that we never run out of the need to carry multiple devices. At least not until advancements in materials science and technology enable a single device to take multiple forms.

Disclosure: Fitbit is backed by True, a venture capital firm that is an investor in the parent company of this blog, Giga Omni Media. Om Malik, founder of Giga Omni Media, is also a venture partner at True.

Saad Fazil writes about emerging trends in the high-tech industry, especially in the areas of social, location and mobile. He writes at itval.e. Follow him on Twitter @ sfrocks.

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A future iWatch could test Apple’s cloud chops

Erica Ogg — Mon, 04 Mar 2013 21:45:39 +0000

It seems rather clear, based on multiple reports, that Apple is actively studying how to get on the wearable computing train with an iOS-based smart watch. Now that we’re pretty sure it exists, the debate turns to what it might do: it will probably run iOS, will do some health-monitoring basics, and let you accept or decline phone calls with caller ID.

But this is likely just what the earliest iteration of such a device could do. Apple may start small, but it tends to think pretty big: after all, it launched the iPhone without third-party apps while internally debating whether or not Apple should offer developers access to the phone — and that worked out pretty well. It’s not a stretch to assume Apple would want to offer access to its most important basic services — from FaceTime and iMessage to Notes, Reminders and notifications — to any wearable device, like it has to the iPhone, iPad and Mac.

And it’s at this point that iWatch could really stretch what Apple is capable of delivering as far as internet services. Few doubt that Apple will make a really beautiful piece of hardware. But a future version of an iWatch could, like MobileMe did in 2008 and like Apple Maps did last fall, further reinforce the notion that Apple is still very weak when it comes to implementing web-based services.

However, the promise of an iWatch connected to the cloud could finally push Apple to get its web-based act together.

The promise of Siri

The dream of an iWatch is to (eventually) do many of the things we rely on our mobile devices for, but on a small computer resting on our wrists: browse the web, get mapping directions, send text messages, and in the case of the iPhone, use alternate interaction and communication methods, like a video call on FaceTime or voice-controlled Siri to get tasks done.

Siri, in particular, seems especially ideal for a device that will likely have pretty small display and no hardware buttons. Initially this may be unnecessary if you’re simply using the watch for checking your heart rate or tapping to answer a call. But when an iWatch becomes more capable, voice control might be the quickest way to add something to your calendar or even send a text message. Siri’s going to have to get a lot better for that to be a selling point for an iWatch someday, of course.

In my personal experience, Siri is one of those “nice to have” features but it doesn’t play into my use of my iPhone or iPad on any kind of regular basis. This is mostly because it’s just slow. I love the idea of dictating a text message when I’m driving; the reality is that by the time Siri understands what I actually want it to do, sometimes it takes much longer than it should. This is somewhat understandable because the service is still technically in beta. (But that brings up a whole other point of why a service Apple has been actively advertising as a key iOS feature is still in beta nearly 17 months later.)

iWatch and the cloud

And then there’s the general reliability of Apple’s cloud-based services. iCloud, which is Apple’s solution for keeping users’ content accessible from different Apple devices, is no stranger to outages; there was a half-day episode just last week that took down iCloud backup, Photo Stream and Documents in the cloud for some users.

But its other internet-based services that also operate in the cloud (i.e. not iCloud) aren’t always reliable either. Siri, iMessage, FaceTime, Maps and GameCenter are all services that have gone offline at one point or another or experienced major usage issues. An iWatch could add millions of more access points for these services at the same time that Apple will presumably be growing its user base through the sale of iPhones, iPads and other devices too.

Even if the iWatch does arrive before Christmas 2013, as some outlets have reported, it doesn’t appear like there will be many of Apple’s cloud-based services included right away. So Apple has some time to get there.

But an iWatch — if and when it arrives, and if and when it is integrated with Apple’s cloud services — could either help Apple’s internet services teams shine or further tarnish their reputation. Google Glass may be dorky, but no one worries about whether or not Google will be able to deliver useful and compelling web services to its wearable computer.

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Ticking down to an iWatch debut: Reports say device to arrive this year

Erica Ogg — Mon, 04 Mar 2013 15:06:38 +0000

The drumbeat of rumors regarding an Apple-made smart watch continues this week. This time it’s The Verge and Bloomberg saying that an iOS-based “iWatch” should arrive some time before the end of 2013.

After reporting last month that a team of 100 people were working on a smart watch at Apple, Bloomberg is back with a few more details about the device’s capabilities. It says Apple is considering adding caller ID to the iWatch (or whatever the device is called), a pedometer and heart rate monitor, and the ability to make calls and check points on a map.

The Verge also reports a few more details about the current state of the project:

That battery life is a big concern: Apple wants the battery to last four to five days on a single charge, but the current prototypes are only lasting “a couple of days.”
The operating system would likely be the full version of iOS scaled down to fit on a watch-size display.
But iOS isn’t properly equipped for that just yet, and needs more work to make it adaptable to an iWatch.

Buzz surrounding an Apple-made smart watch spiked early last month when several publications reported simultaneously that the company was working on such a device. A former Apple interface designer also laid out a case for why Apple is prepared to develop a device now, and speculated on what such a device could do.

This enthusiasm surrounding a new product category is welcomed by Apple investors, who are becoming impatient for Apple to enter a brand new product category three years after it introduced the first iPad.

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More details emerge about scope of Apple smart watch project

Erica Ogg — Wed, 13 Feb 2013 01:13:05 +0000

Just as Apple has come under increased pressure from shareholders for more product innovation, more details are leaking out about a new device the company is said to be working on.

Following reports earlier this week that Apple is working on a smart watch that runs iOS, Bloomberg reports it has heard a few more details about the project. Apple has 100 people working on the device, according to sources who are not named. Those people include marketing, software and hardware people within the company.

Specifically, Bloomberg names James Foster, who is senior director of engineering, and Achim Pantfoerder, a program manager, as two people who are working on making a wearable device.

Bloomberg’s report tracks with what the New York Times and Wall Street Journal wrote earlier this week. Those stories referenced a “watch-like” device made of curved glass that would run iOS. But Bloomberg’s story reporting the size of the team indicates the project may be further along than simple “experimentations” as previously reported.

Apple’s stock has dropped in the last few months as shareholders have become worried that demand for the iPhone and and iPad may be slowing. But speculation is building that Apple is working on a wearable device, something that could be a companion or standalone device to interact with other Apple mobile products. Wearable computing is expected to be a $1.5 billion market by next year.

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Reports: Apple testing curved glass, iOS-powered smart watch

Erica Ogg — Sun, 10 Feb 2013 20:01:01 +0000

Apple is reportedly exploring different types of designs of smart watches, both the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday. The descriptions of the potential product vary slightly: The WSJ says the company is experimenting with ”a watch-like device that would perform some functions of a smartphone.” The NYT says Apple is looking at “wristwatch-like devices made of curved glass.”

The watch would run the same iOS platform as the iPhone, iPod touch and iPad, according to the Times‘ report. The Journal adds that Apple has talked with its chief manufacturing partner, Foxconn, about manufacturing the device.

Last week, one of the original human interface designers at Apple, Bruce Tognazzini, wrote a detailed post on his personal blog about what he imagined Apple could do with an “iWatch.” He no longer works at Apple, and said he had no knowledge of what Apple’s designers may actually be working on now. Among other things, he pointed out that Apple has been testing and has patented a method of producing curved glass displays.

These latest reports aren’t the first that such a watch or device is under consideration inside Apple’s Cupertino, Calif. headquarters. It’s important to note that Apple testing or experimenting with a device is a long ways from it being an actual product. But as wearable computing becomes more mainstream — it’s expected by a $1.5 billion business by next year — it makes sense that a wearable, iOS-based device is something Apple would want to at least explore, especially as the market for iPhones continues to mature.

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Ex-Apple designer explains why it’s just a matter of time for the iWatch

Erica Ogg — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 18:00:01 +0000

According to one of the original interface designers at Apple the question of his former company creating an iWatch is “when” not “if.” In a long and detailed post on his personal blog this week, interface designer Bruce Tognazzini laid out his case for it. He’s no longer with Apple, but as an early employee he seems to have a good sense of how Apple designers think, and he sees numerous possibilities for such a device and how it might work with Apple’s current products.

“The iWatch will fill a gaping hole in the Apple ecosystem,” he wrote on his Ask Tog blog. “It will facilitate and coordinate not only the activities of all the other computers and devices we use, but a wide array of devices to come. Like other breakthrough Apple products, its value will be underestimated at launch, then grow to have a profound impact on our lives and Apple’s fortunes.”

There are already smart watches out there for early adopters. But Apple always goes for the mainstream. The case Tognazzini makes is that for all the apparent drawbacks to getting regular people to wear and use a smart watch, Apple already holds the answers. For example:

No one wants to recharge a watch: Apple has a patent on a wireless recharging method.
Clunkiness can be solved with another patented method Apple has for curved glass displays.
And thanks to Siri, there’s no need for excess buttons to scroll through menus on a small screen.

He also has some very interesting ideas regarding how Apple could use its own iWatch: as a way to remove the need for passwords when using other Apple devices, like a Mac or an iPhone; to make mobile payments possible with an NFC chip-equipped iWatch; to improve its maps with altitude and pressure information sensed on the watch; and as a method of crowdsourcing more accurate weather information.

That’s just a taste; there’s much more and you should read his whole post. As Tognazzini points out, he doesn’t have any insider information and has no idea when Apple could be ready with such a device. But his perspective is smart and while many others are waiting with bated breath for a new television to show Apple’s still got some innovation up its sleeve, Tognazzini’s thought very far ahead of how Apple could make the smartwatch one of its most revolutionary devices yet.

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