The trend has been happening for a couple years now. The number of solar maker companies in 2010 was 750, and 650 in 2011 (see chart below). A lot of the consolidation will happen for firms in China. In particular, companies that manufacturer polysilicon-based solar ingots, wafers and cells, will be under immense pressure. Mike Sheppard, senior photovoltaics analyst with IHS, says:

Most upstream PV supply operations will simply cease to exist, rather than being acquired by other companies. Most of these suppliers actually have already stopped production—and will never restart.”

The problem is one of a massive oversupply that has grown over the years, as prices of silicon and solar panels have dropped dramatically, and demand hasn’t grown as fast as supply. A lot of the solar maker companies are operating at a loss.

Related research and analysis from GigaOM Pro:
Subscriber content. Sign up for a free trial.

• The opportunities for the Internet and clean power
• Flash analysis: lessons from Solyndra’s fall
• Green IT Q1: Cleantech Breaking Out — and Bracing for Hard Times

“Among all the international smartphone brands competing in China, Apple is the only one not offering a product that complies with the domestic TD-SCDMA air standard,” Wang said in a new IHS iSuppli’s report. “For Apple, this is a huge disadvantage, as TD-SCDMA represents the fastest-growing major air standard for smartphones in China, with shipments of compliant phones expected to rise by a factor of 10 from 2011 to 2016.”

He’s not wrong. By snubbing TD-SCDMA, Apple misses the opportunity to sell the iPhone through the country’s largest carrier China Mobile, and by “large” we’re talking scale unheard of in the U.S. or Europe. China Mobile is the world’s largest operator with 650 million connections – six times more than Verizon Wireless. While Apple counts the country’s No. 2 and No. 3 carriers, China Unicom and China Telecom as distributors, together they only serve 30 percent of the market. In other words, China Mobile is the big enchilada of the globe.

An Apple store in China.

So why doesn’t Apple take a bite? Adding TD-SCDMA support to the iPhone isn’t quite as simple as it sounds. As I’ve written before, adding a new radio technology to a phone isn’t just a matter of procuring the right Qualcomm chip, it requires power amplifiers, antennas and filters – all of which add expense, drain power and generally make a mess of the radio frequency characteristics of the device. Apple could do it, sure, but it would wind up with a crappier and costlier iPhone.

If Apple really wants to tackle China Mobile, it will need to come out with an iPhone variant for China, and so far Apple has been loath to do any such thing. Apple did build a CDMA iPhone for Verizon, but after the first generation of device, Apple once again unified its product line, embedding both CDMA and GSM radios in every phone. Plus, it didn’t take long before Apple started selling that device to other CDMA carriers globally.

Would Apple consider designing a “Chinese Special”? The answer is a big maybe.

China Mobile may be a big juicy target, but Apple’s strategy has always been to move markets rather than move with the market. It’s so far taken the attitude that if you want an iPhone in China, you should move to Unicom or Telecom. It took that same approach in the U.S. for years with AT&T. And it’s why some of the world’s other large carriers, T-Mobile USA and NTT DoCoMo for two, get snubbed.

But at some point Apple will have to start making iPhone variants whether it wants to or not. There’s a huge amount of fragmentation in the LTE bands used globally –there are six designated 4G bands in the U.S. alone – which will force Apple and other vendors to create region-specific and even carrier-specific devices (subscription required). The new iPad is just the first example: there are separate devices for AT&T and Verizon’s separate LTE networks.

If Apple has to start churning out variants anyway, it may figure it might as well make a Chinese iPhone, too.

Related research and analysis from GigaOM Pro:
Subscriber content. Sign up for a free trial.

• LTE changes everything; LTE changes nothing
• U.S. Wireless Data Market, Q1 2009
• 12 tech leaders’ resolutions for 2012

Facebook’s problems in the gaming market are quickly summed up by the research firm:

“Facebook’s days as a boomtown for game operators appear to have come to an end, with the total number of users stagnating amid rising barriers to entry, increasing competition and an intensifying fight for consumer mindshare with other social networking activities.”

IHS iSuppli notes that by the end of 2010, about 50 percent of all Facebook monthly active users were also gamers. But while Facebook aggressively added new users in 2011, the absolute number of gamers more or less remained unchanged. Meanwhile, the percentage that were visiting games fell to about 25 percent.

That’s bad news not just for Facebook, but also for Zynga, its largest partner in the casual gaming space. The number of monthly active users for Zynga declined to 225 million in the fourth quarter, from 266 million in the previous quarter, according to IHS iSuppli.

So what’s driving the decline in gaming? The research firm posits that more difficult customer acquisition, increased competition and Facebook’s attempt to be everything to everyone is forcing gaming companies to work harder to capture new users and to keep them engaged.

On the customer acquisition side, IHS iSuppli says that viral channels — which had helped game makers connect with users over the last few years — aren’t as effective as before, forcing Zynga and others to do more cross-promotion between games and spend more on direct advertising. There’s also more gaming and other entertainment options on Facebook, meaning more game makers are competing for a shrinking amount of users’ time.

Finally, as Facebook has grown, it’s opened the doors for even more types of content being shared in users’ news feeds and on their Timeline pages. The addition of new seamless sharing apps means it’s not just Farmville updates that show up when you login or look at a user’s activity. Considering the percentage of users that are gamers has also declined, those apps are getting much less visibility on Facebook than they had just a few years ago.

Related research and analysis from GigaOM Pro:
Subscriber content. Sign up for a free trial.

• Facebook’s IPO filing: ideas and implications
• The Real Impact of Facebook’s New Approach to Gaming
• Will Games Help Google Figure Out How to Be Social?

Credit: IHS iSuppli

Like clockwork, IHS iSuppli mercilessly tears down new iPhone models and exposes their inner works, looking to divine the secret of their manufacturing and components costs. On Thursday, the firm released its analysis of the latest and greatest, the iPhone 4S.

The base model 16 GB iPhone 4S carries an estimated bill of materials (BOM) of $188 (only $0.50 more than the iPhone 4), which accounts for all the parts used in its construction, including flash memory, DRAM, processor, antennas, battery and sensor. The 32 GB and 64 GB models are identical to the 16 GB variety, save for the inclusion of additional flash storage. The estimated manufacturing cost in each case adds only $8 to the BOM. Here’s a full breakdown of the costs associated with each model of iPhone 4S:

IHS iSuppli notes that these costs don’t include software, licensing or other expenditures associated with creating and designing a phone.

The teardown also revealed some interesting new components contained in the iPhone 4S, not in its predecessor. These include the redesigned cellular network antenna that IHS calles “unique” in its ability to support all carrier partner network technologies, when compared to the approach taken by most of Apple’s competitors.

The firm also highlights the Avago power amplifier module, which “amplifies a radio signal prior to transmission.” IHS explains why this is an important addition to the iPhone:

What makes the converged Avago part unique is its capability to support both 2G and 3G cellular technologies across multiple bands thus reducing the number of components and PC board footprint required.  While Avago is by no means the only company supplying these types of devices, it is the first to be implemented by Apple.

Another new supplier discovered during the teardown is Hynix, which provides the NAND flash memory for the specific unit disassembled by IHS. Toshiba is another known source for the iPhone’s flash storage, but if Hynix is a new supplier as IHS believes, that’s a major boon for the company, since flash is either the most expensive or second-most expensive component in the iPhone, depending on which model you’re looking at.

It looks like Apple hasn’t sacrificed its margins in order to deliver a more advanced device with the iPhone 4S. What are your thoughts on the latest iSuppli breakdown?

Related research and analysis from GigaOM Pro:
Subscriber content. Sign up for a free trial.

• Connected world: the consumer technology revolution
• Mobile Q2: Smartphone growth surges; iPad’s rule continues
• Today’s Smartphones Give Rise to Tomorrow’s Robots

The sale of a 13-MW solar project near Rome to Allianz Renewable Energy Partners IV on Dec. 30 capped SunPower’s 2010 projects in Italy which, like Germany, also has policies in place that require utilities to pay a premium for solar electricity. The San Jose, Calif.-based company, which started out as a solar panel maker, jumped into the project development business when it agreed to buy Berkeley, Calif.-based PowerLight in 2006.

Italy was the largest photovoltaic market after Germany in 2010, according to iSuppli. The country is estimated to have installed around 1.9 GW in 2010, up from 720 MW in 2009. And it will remain a big draw for investors and project developers over the next two years, likely adding 3.9 GW of solar projects in 2011, iSuppli said Monday.

Other solar energy equipment makers, from First Solar to Power-One, which makes inverters, have boosted their sales from the booming Italian market. Power-One, which bought an Italy-based power conversion electronic business in 2006, became the No. 2 inverter supplier in 2010 (up from No. 4 in 2009), according to IMS Research.

SunPower bought Malta-based SunRay Renewable Energy for $296.1 million in March 2010, according to SunPower’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. That acquisition came with a project pipeline of more than 1.2 GW in Italy, France, Israel, Spain, the U.K. and Greece. SunPower typically develops and then sells its projects to investors; buyers usually hire SunPower to operate and maintain the power plants.

SunPower and SunRay had learned to work together prior to the purchase. SunRay worked with SunPower to complete a 20-MW project in 2009, which was the first phase of the Montalto di Castro solar park near Rome, and SunPower completed another 8 MW of the solar park in the fall of 2010, and an additional 44 MW in December.

SunPower sold the 20-megawatt and the 8-megawatt projects to Etrion for a total of 49 million euros. The two companies also announced in November a plant to build 10 megawatts.

SunPower ended up selling the 44-MW portion to a group of investors that included MetLife, Fondo PPP Italia and Voigt & Collegen). The solar company didn’t disclose the sale price.

For more research on cleantech financing check out GigaOM Pro (subscription required):

• Cleantech Financing  Trends 2010 & Beyond
• Report: IT Opportunities in Electric Vehicle Management
• Car Data As the Next Platform for Innovation

Photo courtesy of Andrew Larsen

The research firm expects to see 20.2 gigawatts of solar pane-based systems installed in 2011, up about 42 percent from the anticipated 14.2 gigawatts in 2010. The growth would be small compared with the 97 percent hike from 7.2 gigawatts 2009 to 2010 because of cuts in government subsidies in key markets such as Germany and Italy and financial turmoil in countries such as Greece and Spain, said iSuppli senior analyst Stefan de Haan.

Germany has been the savior for solar energy equipment makers and project developers during 2009, when recession choked off project financing, spurred contract re-negotiations and prompted furloughs and layoffs during the first half of the year. But solar project construction picked up later last year as developers rushed to complete projects ahead of an anticipated cutback in the country’s feed-in tariff. The country passed a new set of feed-in tariffs that took effect last month.

Despite the cuts, Germany should continue to reign and will likely install 9.5 gigawatts in 2011, a 43.9 percent boost from 2010, iSuppli said. Italy should grab the No. 2 spot in 2011 with 2 gigawatts of new solar installations in 2011, up 53.6 percent from 2010. Meanwhile, the U.S. could see 1.9 gigawatts in 2011, up 79.3 percent from the previous year. France and Japan will fill the No. 4 and No. 5 spot and add at least 1 gigawatt each.

The fact that the solar market still relies heavily on government subsidies has created a rough-and-tumble atmosphere that seems to make market predictions a whole lot tougher. Many market research firms had to revise their forecasts for 2009 because Germany was unexpectedly popular.

So here is a comparison for the global installation forecast for 2010: iSuppli is predicting 14.2 gigawatts. GTM Research is expecting 12.6 gigawatts.  SolarBuzz has pegged it at 15.2 gigawatts. Back in spring this year, Photon Consulting said 24.4 18.8 gigawatts. IMS Research stands by 14.6 gigawatts.

And while iSuppli believes 2011 will see 20.2 gigawatts installed, GTM Research, for example, is looking at 13.4 gigawatts. The German market will “peak in 2010 and decline thereafter,” said Shayle Kann, managing director of solar research at GTM. Other markets will need to grow faster to compensate for the decline before the global market sees a big boost again, he said.

With the falling government subsidies, some analysts expect to see a price decline for solar energy equipment and installations. Crystalline silicon solar cell pricing, for example, is likely to fall 5 percent from 2010 to 2011, assuming the exchange rate stays above 1 euro for $1.20, iSuppli said. The price for installing a power project in Europe could fall 10 percent on average in 2011.

For 2012, worldwide installations could grow even slower, at 2.8 percent, and add 20.8 gigawatts, because Germany will continue to cut its subsidies, iSuppli said.

For more research on cleantech financing check out GigaOM Pro (subscription required):

Cleantech Financing Trends 2010 & Beyond

iSuppli doesn’t doubt that 3-D TV will eventually become more mainstream, but the limited availability of 3-D content, expensive glasses and interoperability issues are causing many people to hold out on the new trend. Oh, and I guess those warnings that you shouldn’t watch 3-D when you’re drunk, pregnant or elderly don’t really help either…

On the other hand, Internet-enabled TV sets are quickly becoming mainstream, with iSuppli estimating that global shipments will reach 148.3 million units by 2014, representing 54 percent of the total flat-panel TV market. 3-D TV shipments will reach 60.5 million units that year.

This rate of growth is also good news for the semiconductor business: Revenue from chips used for Internet-enabled TV sets will reach $2 billion by 2014, up from $222 million in2009, iSuppli estimates.

Of course, these numbers also show that strategies to enter the living room could soon shift: This year, many companies are still betting on separate boxes to bring platforms like Google TV or Boxee to consumers. However, those boxes may have a very limited shelf life if every second TV sold is going to directly connect to the Internet in a matter of years.

Photo courtesy of Flickr user bark.

Related content on GigaOm Pro: Are We Putting the 3-D Cart Before the Horse? (subscription required)

While the phrase “wireless charging” paints a picture of a battery refresh completely without wires, the technology isn’t quite that advanced. A charging mat or puck — think of Powermat or the Palm Pre’s Touchstone charger — still typically needs to be plugged into an electrical outlet. And both the charging station and the device that requires a recharge need magnetic coils for the short-distance process. See our “10 Things to Know About Wireless Power” article for additional details.

The coil requirement is partially what’s prevented wireless charging from seeing mainstream adoption — with so many different device batteries on the market, it hasn’t been feasible for a mass migration from direct charging batteries. And it can take longer for a battery to be topped off using wireless charging. But iSuppli believes that device makers will look towards new standards to help improve such technology and speed up consumer acceptance of wireless solutions.

Indeed, during my own discussions with the Powermat team earlier this year, I got a first look at how the company is creating its own batteries with the aim of striking deals directly with device makers. Currently, the Powermat solution requires a special phone case to accept a wireless charge and consumers may not want a specific-function case for their iPhone or BlackBerry. But if Powermat can supply a battery to those phones so they natively support wireless power, consumers won’t need a special case. Handset makers could simply provide a wireless-capable battery in lieu of the traditional one at the point of device purchase — a move sure to drive up adoption. Even Stacey, who thinks wireless charging is useless in its current state, might adopt the technology if that happens. Ironically, she’s on a trip today and left her wired phone charger behind!

Related content from GigaOM Pro (sub req’d):

Wireless Power: Beyond Charing Mats and Solar Power

While these are TVs connected to the Internet, it’s important to note that they’re not all Internet-enabled TVs. In fact, the majority of these sets are connected through game consoles, Internet set-top boxes, or other third-party devices. According to the survey results, approximately 41.9 percent of those connected were actually Internet-enabled TVs. About 20 percent were connected through gaming consoles, while 13 percent were connected through a Blu-ray disc player and an additional 12 percent were connected through an Internet set-top box like a Roku or Vudu player. The final 12 percent were connected through PCs or other computing devices.

As demand for Internet content in the living room grows, more companies are looking to get in on the act. Cablevision announced today that it will soon trial a new service that will enable its subscribers to access Internet content on the TV through the company’s cable boxes. Interest in broadband content on the TV is also one reason that Wal-Mart reportedly ponied up $100 million for online video service Vudu earlier this week.

Related GigaOM Pro content: Connected Consumer Tuned In to TVs in Q4 (subscription required)

By 2013, iSuppli analyst Will Kong estimates, data revenue in the country will surge to $31.5 billion, which still puts it at less than half of the almost $45 billion network operators scored from selling wireless data in the U.S. in 2009, according to estimates from industry analyst Chetan Sharma. But China’s spending is still nascent and spread out among many more consumers, meaning it could eventually surpass the U.S. in data revenue.

But not anytime soon. Thanks to the adoption of faster broadband through a 3G network and better web-surfing devices such as the iPhone, Chinese carriers should see non-messaging service revenue (web surfing) reach $20 billion in 2013, up by a factor of three from $6.8 billion in 2008.

Kong said Chinese carriers in 2009 will spend about $6.3 billion on mobile infrastructure equipment, up 28 percent from 2008. Spending in 2010 will decline by 2.4 percent to $6.1 billion, which may be one reason Huawei is less optimistic about its sales growth for the coming year. During the next five years, carrier spending will continue to decline but will remain at a high level of more than $5.5 billion annually.

Image courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.

Related research and analysis from GigaOM Pro:
Subscriber content. Sign up for a free trial.

• CES 2012: a recap and analysis
• Where new opportunity lies in the mobile operating system space
• A global mobile handset forecast: 2011-2015