I like to review these predictions because they help keep me honest with readers, but also because the exercise reminds me to be humble in my writing for the upcoming year: Mobile technology is moving so quickly I’ll never bat a thousand. Here’s a look back at what I wrote nearly one year ago to the day, along with evaluation of the effort.

iOS and Android

• “I do believe (and have since earlier this year) that a Verizon iPhone will at the very least, be announced in January. And it’s an even money bet that the iPad will gain the rumored cameras required for FaceTime, too.” — These weren’t too difficult to see coming, but I called them correctly.
• “ iOS will likely see improved notifications in iOS version 5.” — Another winner here, and one of the reasons I actually bought an iPhone in 2011 after abandoning my old iPhone 3GS for Android devices. I’ve always preferred the Android notification method, and Apple improved upon it. Android 4.0 brings back parity in this area.
• “Thanks to more robust mobile broadband options, I expect Apple to offer iTunes music streaming in 2011.” — I was close, but not quite right. Apple did move iTunes libraries to the cloud, but mainly to store music files, not to stream your library in the traditional sense.
• “Android phones will come closer to rivaling the user experience of Apple iOS devices, but they’ll still fall short. It won’t matter in terms of platform market share, and more developers will code for both iOS and Android, with a greater emphasis on Google’s platform if pressed to choose just one.” — I’ll call this one partly right, as Android 4.0 does rival iOS, depending on who you ask and their personal preferences. Developers are mainly focusing on iOS and Google, but more are attracted to the better monetization offered by iOS, even though Google is ahead in market share.
• “Google will design one stock Android handset for Verizon’s LTE network.” — This was perhaps my most spot-on prediction: The Samsung Galaxy Nexus for Verizon is a flagship LTE phone that’s exclusive to the carrier in the U.S. But I’m still happier that I went with an unlocked GSM Galaxy Nexus from overseas: It removes the carrier control from my handset and gives it to me instead.
• “Motorola Mobility will have a solid first year due to Android phones and tablets, but won’t see huge growth until it can gain additional large carrier partners and the backing they provide.” — Motorola didn’t gain a large carrier partner, but it did win serious backing when Google announced intent to purchase the company. Still, I was wrong on this one and didn’t see the Google purchase as a possibility.
• “The iPad will continue to sell in record numbers next year, but the combined sales of Android tablets will be close behind at the end of 2011. Consumers will still pass up Microsoft Windows 7 tablets.” — The iPad still dominates tablet sales, and by most measures, Android isn’t close behind yet. That could change with Android 4.0 tablets, but I thought we’d see them by now. Microsoft Windows 7 tablets are selling as well as prior Windows tablets — as in not very.

Intel, HP, Nokia and Microsoft

• “Intel will finally deliver on its Atom effort and get the chip in a few phones, but none will be blockbuster successes. While Android can be ported to Intel’s x86 chip architecture, few will tackle the effort because of investments in ARM technology.” — It was another year of missed opportunity for Intel, as I was wrong on timing this one. In 2012, Intel expects to enter the smartphone game with new silicon.
• “Intel’s best showing will be in Nokia MeeGo devices (more on that below). Even with a few available products, the gap between Intel- and ARM-powered handsets and tablets will continue to widen.” — When you don’t have much showing, there really can’t be a “best” showing for Intel. And ARM continues to rule the roost when it comes to mobile chip architecture in successful products.
• “HP will debut a half-dozen new webOS products: mostly phones, but at least one tablet too. Even though I expect a compelling interface and feature set, webOS still won’t see a market share higher than 6 percent in 2011 as developer mindshare is focused on Android and iOS.” — The biggest fail on my list as webOS is effectively dead and gone, having been handed down to the open-source community: a damn shame.
• “Microsoft’s Kinect product will keep the Xbox a leading platform and the device will continue to be used for various interface hacks” — The Xbox 360 continued to be the top-selling console month after month this year. And there has been no lack of Kinect-powered interface hacks demonstrated, including robots that use the Kinect for vision.
• “Microsoft will officially support the device in an update to Windows 7, and my son will still not be able to beat me in a Kinect game.” — Microsoft added Windows 7 support for Kinect in June. and my son has yet to beat me in a Kinect game. I’m getting older by the minute though, so I may not be able to replicate this feat in 2012.
• “Nokia’s smartphone market share will stabilize, but not grow beyond 40 percent as cheaper Android phones will flood the market by the second half of the year. The company will continue to tout MeeGo, which will become available in the form of six devices in 2011.” — Even with my own lowered expectations for Nokia, the company — and its smartphone market share — crumbled in 2011, in hopes of rebuilding its future. MeeGo has been abandoned as a strategy, so I blew this one big time.
• “There will be talk of Microsoft buying Nokia, but it won’t happen. Windows Phone 7 on a Nokia device might, however, as a short-term trial strategy for both parties.” — Microsoft hasn’t officially bought Nokia, but it did pay the company more a billion dollars to use Windows Phone going forward.
• “Microsoft will demonstrate a lighter, touch-optimized platform for tablets by mid-2011 and follow up with products near the end of the year. Research In Motion’s PlayBook will gain enterprise customers in 2011, but businesses will adopt the iPad, and possibly even Android tablets, far more heavily.” — Microsoft has demonstrated a Metro interface that will be used tablets, but products aren’t yet available. Businesses are favoring iOS and Android tablets over the PlayBook.

Samsung

• “Samsung will continue to leverage the Galaxy brand and approach with fewer new smartphone models in 2011. Instead, the company will take the lesson learned from 2010: Design one base handset and tweak slightly for carrier customization. The company will sell 17 million or more such handsets as a result. — The Galaxy S II is that phone, and as of September, sold 10 million units. That was prior to the handset arriving on three of the big four U.S. carriers, so I think I did well on the prediction.
• “I expect 5 million Samsung tablets to sell next year, both in 7-inch and 10-inch sizes. And while Apple will continue its digital audio player dominance, Samsung will grab a 5-percent chunk of the market currently held by Apple’s iPod, even more if Google Music is available in dozens of countries.” — Again, it’s difficult to find tablet sales data by manufacturer, but IDC suggests Samsung sold 1 million tablets in the third quarter, so I suspect my figure of 5 million for the year is high, pending holiday sales. Samsung was late to market with its Android-based iPod touch competitors, so I’m considering my 5 percent prediction to be wrong.

Chips, carriers and other tech topics

• “Although phones with dual-core processors will debut in early 2011, more than 25 percent of smartphones sold by the end of the year will use dual-core chips.” — I haven’t seen data specific to smartphone sales by the number of processing cores, but I suspect I got this right. Perhaps I even underestimated the number of dual-core smartphone sales when you look at the models that use them: Apple’s iPhone 4S, Samsung’s Galaxy S II, Motorola’s Razr and many other popular handsets.
• “Smart homes with web-connected automation will slip into mainstream conversation, but near-field communication will still be confusing due to a lack of mobile payment standards.” — Smart home products are gaining momentum but aren’t part of everyday conversation just yet. NFC for mobile payments is still a moving target for the reason I predicted, which is why I took matters into my own hands with Google Wallet.
• “Although U.S. carriers will continue to rely on network offload solutions such as femtocells and more public Wi-Fi zones, at least one carrier will supplement current data plans with a truly metered trial option.” — This prediction was mostly correct until the last phrase, as no U.S. carrier has offered a pay-for-what-you-use data plan.

Overall, I think I fared well, but I’m raising the bar for 2012 because I’d like to have even more accuracy in what to expect. Some of my 2011 predictions may carry over to 2012 because I was off on timing, but I’ll be spending the next day or two focused on my Magic 8 Ball to see what 2012 will bring!

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If Apple does change chip suppliers, it may not be an easy nor a fast process. According to an analyst at NH Investment and Securities, Seo Won-seok, Samsung has deep roots in the chip design and using another supplier could mean more research and development from Apple:

“It won’t be easy for Apple to dramatically change its chip provider from Samsung. It has to redesign the chipset, which Samsung has been deeply involved from the beginning and has some intellectual property. Apple could try various suppliers but they (Samsung and Apple) need each other and the relationship will continue.”

This scenario could be Apple’s standard component diversification strategy; companies often don’t want to rely on a single supplier for any one part, let alone the primary CPU of a mobile device. Up to now, Samsung has appeared to have enough capability to produce Apple’s A5 chip as needed, but if that silicon is meant to power a new generation of iPhones, and possibly iPod touch devices — meaning tens of millions of devices — Samsung could be hard-pressed to keep up with demand. Samsung builds chips for its own handsets and has already had to use Nvidia’s Tegra 2 for the Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1 tablet as well as some of the Galaxy S II smartphones. For both Samsung and Apple’s sake then, it’s possible that another chip-maker could be testing production to limit the potential for component shortages.

Samsung and Apple have been dealing with the patent disagreements for more than year, however, and are now involved in the courts over similarities between Samsung’s Galaxy line of handsets and Apple’s iPhone. Apple was hoping to fast-track the case, but at least one part of it, the briefing process, won’t be accelerated, said a judge this week. Although there are good business reasons for Apple to seek out another CPU fabricator, these two hardware partners can’t be getting along as well as they once did.

Obviously we won’t know if TSMC has won any Apple CPU contracts until new devices arrive and are torn apart, but even without the current lawsuit situation, it simply makes sense for Apple to seek alternative component suppliers as consumers snap up iOS devices in growing numbers.

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Hardware

For those familiar with HTC handsets, the Sensation 4G isn’t much of a departure, but that’s not a bad thing. The new handset reminds me of a slightly larger, improved version of the Nexus One, which is what I use personally. The overall dimensions may appear large, but the phone’s rounded design keeps it feeling thin.

The main reason for the size is the generous 4.3-inch Super LCD display, which is bright and vivid with its qHD resolution. The screen has good viewing angles from all directions and is usable in direct sunlight. The screen, which curves up slightly at the edges, isn’t as nice as phones that use Samsung’s Super AMOLED displays, but those are still a challenge to use outdoors and use a slightly lower resolution.

Below the display are four capacitive touch buttons, which work well; above the screen is a VGA camera that is good enough for video chatting. Without Android 2.4, however, the Sensation 4G can’t use Google Talk for video and is limited to third-party solutions, such as Qik. Inside the main speaker is an LED notification light. The rear camera is 8 megapixels, has two LED flashes and can capture video up to 108 0p. Aside from the volume buttons and micro USB port on the left and the power button and 3.5 millimeter headphone jack on the top, little else distracts from the overall look and feel of the phone. Our first-look video offers a full, detailed tour of the hardware, including the unique back cover.

You can see it in the video, but the unibody cover is worth mentioning, because it’s more like a case than a cover: The entire innards of the Sensation slide out from the case, offering access to the 1520 mAh user-replaceable battery, SIM card slot and microSD slot. The back cover is aluminum in the center but grippy plastic above and below, which helps to keep the phone from slipping. With the Sensation’s user-accessible memory limited to 1 GB, most consumers will make use of the memory expansion slot, which comes with an 8 GB card and supports up to 32 GB of memory. The memory card can be removed or replaced while the phone is running.

Unlike the T-Mobile G2x, made by LG and powered by a 1 GHz Nvidia Tegra 2 dual-core processor, HTC chose a chip from its longtime partner, Qualcomm. A 1.2 GHz dual-core Snapdragon chip is the heart of the Sensation 4G, while the expected array of wireless and sensor technologies rounds out the picture: Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, a 14.4 Mbps radio for T-Mobile’s network, GPS, ambient light sensor and accelerometer. Most of the specifications of the phone are high-end, but the mobile broadband radio is slightly lacking, since T-Mobile’s network is capable of 21 Mbps downloads in many areas and 42 Mbps in nearly four dozen markets currently.

Software

Since the device runs all of the standard Google Android apps, I’ll instead focus mainly on HTC’s software. The Sensation 4G is the first phone to use the new HTC Sense 3.0 software, a custom user interface and set of widgets that take the place of Google’s own Android interface. There’s no easy method to disable Sense and use plain Android, but overall, Sense offers a more pleasing and intuitive experience, not to mention an improved keyboard that speeds input through tracing words.

The most noticeable change from prior versions of Sense is the new Active Lockscreen, which shows information at a glance and provides four user-customizable shortcuts on the Sensation’s lock screen. To unlock the device, you simply drag a ring icon up from the bottom of the screen. Dragging one of the four shortcuts into the ring unlocks the phone and opens the specific application. Dragging the camera icon to the ring, for example, immediately brings you to the camera app. The feature is clever and useful.

Sense brings seven home screens, each of which can be set up with widgets, shortcuts, folders and more. Swiping left or right moves through the home screens in a 3-D-like carousel, which is a nice visual but adds little value. Also pleasing to look at is the HTC Weather widget, which I used as my lock screen background: The entire display emulates the local weather, complete with sounds and visuals of the sun, moving clouds, lightning and rain. A “personalize” function allows customization of user skins, scenes, wallpapers, notification sounds and more.

HTC has also tweaked Android’s notification shade, and it’s better than what Google offers. Pulling down the shade shows the most recently used apps as well as all outstanding notifications from applications. But the shade has a second tab specific to the phone’s most basic settings. Tap it and you can easily access settings for Wi-Fi, the mobile hotspot function, Bluetooth or GPS. This tab also shows the current memory in use, which doubles as a limited task manager application.

Other HTC apps include Watch and Listen, which are the beginnings of HTC’s media offerings. Watch offers movie and television content for rentals or purchase. Although the video library is relatively sparse when compared to Apple’s iTunes store, the prices are comparable. Video previews are available for some but not all titles, and they look crisp and clear on the Sensation 4G. Listen, powered by MusicStation, appears to be more of a work in progress: Few new albums are available.

Performance

Although the Sensation uses a faster 1.2 GHz dual-core processor, I found the performance to generally be on par with the 1 GHz Tegra-powered G2x. That’s not a bad thing, but folks expecting a noticeable performance difference between the two aren’t likely to see one. Overall, the phone is fairly snappy and responsive: Menus don’t open instantly, but there’s very little lag. I suspect the reason for the lag is twofold. The Sense user interface over Android adds a little bit of overhead, and Qualcomm’s Snapdragon MSM8260 uses a modified Cortex-A8 core instead of the newer Cortex-A9. Still, the phone will be fast enough for most.

My tests of the phone’s mobile broadband in an area with full 21 Mbps support averaged a 3.5 Mbps download, 1.7 Mbps upload and 70 millisecond ping time, with faster occasional peaks, showing the limitation of the radio. While these aren’t slow speeds and performance will vary by location and coverage area, I expected faster speeds from a phone with a 4G label. Wi-Fi worked well on my two home networks as well as on public hotspots, as did the mobile hotspot functionality I used with a Wi-Fi tablet.

Even with the dual-core processor and large display to light up, the Sensation 4G makes it through a full day on a single charge. But you’ll need to charge it nightly, especially with heavy use during the day. As far as the cameras go, HTC isn’t known for top-notch images, but I noticed a big improvement with the Sensation 4G, both for stills and videos. Certain Nokia cameras and the iPhone 4 offer higher quality, but the Sensation has the best camera I’ve used yet on an HTC device. Videos can be trimmed while stills enjoy basic edit functions; both stills or movies can be shared via email or various third-party services.

Phone calls were clear, and signal strength was good for all of my voice activities, with no call drops. The speakerphone is quite loud, and there are several microphones located on the back and bottom of the Sensation, making for clear hands-free calls.

Conclusion

With just a few small shortcomings, I think the Sensation 4G is one of the best, if not the best, handset available for T-Mobile today, with a few caveats. You’ll have to want a larger display, not mind HTC’s Sense interface and accept that there are phones with faster radios available. For $199 with a contract, the Sensation 4G is well worth the money, due to its ease of use, high-resolution display and improved camera. I’m considering the purchase of one myself, although I may hold off to see if and when Samsung’s Galaxy S 2 arrives for T-Mobile, which should rival the Sensation 4G.

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This video demonstration from the Android And Me enthusiast site illustrates how Scalado’s software, known as Rewind, works for group shots. Instead of hoping that everyone is wide-eyed and smiling when tapping the shutter button, the software uses a burst mode to capture five successive images in quick succession. To do this, a peppy processor is needed for the fast image capture. Once the picture is taken, the software uses facial recognition to zero in on each member of the group; tapping a face in the picture creates a circular control around the person’s image. A turn of the circle scrolls through all five images of the group member’s face so the best one can be chosen and seamlessly stitched into the final image.

Scalado’s solution applies to standard photos as well because no matter how fast you tap the shutter button on your smartphone’s camera, you don’t always get the perfect shot. Using a similar burst mode concept, Scalado’s app can take two images before you press the shutter button as it can constantly monitor images when the camera app is running. Tapping the shutter snaps the prior two image scans, the one during the button press and two more immediately after that, offering five image captures of the scene to choose from and save.

Since the software requires an advanced mobile phone processor and can enhance native camera functionality, Scalado is looking at handset makers to implement its camera solution. That means it’s likely to be an included feature on a smartphone, not a camera application that consumers can buy as a separate mobile application. Given that, the company has partnered with Qualcomm, I’d expect the software to first appear on handsets from HTC and HP  as both companies power their current and upcoming smartphones with Qualcomm Snapdragon chips.

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