Its $60 and $70 prepaid plans still aren’t exactly cheap, but you get a lot more data value out of them. The $60 plan now includes 2 GB of data (up from 500 MB), while the $70 plan includes 4 GB (up from 2 GB). Both includes unlimited talk and text, but as with the previous plans prepaid customers don’t get access to the LTE network. If you want a 4G connection, you’ll have to sign a contract.

I’ve noted before that Verizon is getting a lot more aggressive in the prepaid space – a market it has historically ignored. But Verizon has always been all over the premium smartphone subscriber, and increasingly those customers are moving away from contract plans to prepaid services. In the first quarter, nearly one-third of all smartphones activated landed on a prepaid plan, according to The NPD Group.

While the bigger data buckets are only available to current prepaid customers, Verizon said it will extend them to new customers on June 6.

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Speaking to reporters at a Verizon event in New York City, McAdam said the carrier would watch T-Mobile’s new no-contract strategy closely to see how consumers respond. “I’m happy when I see something different tried,” CNET quoted McAdam as saying. “We can react quickly to consumers’ shifting needs.”

Lowell McAdam (right) with Google’s Eric Schmidt

To be honest, you wouldn’t expect McAdam to say anything different. In the past, carriers have expressed dissatisfaction with the subsidy model that dominates the U.S. mobile industry. That model dictates they sell increasingly expensive smartphones at cut-rate prices and thus take a big financial hit when they first sign up a new customer. Eventually they recoup those costs over the course of a two-year contract through higher service fees.

Most carriers have already eliminated subsidies entirely for tablets, and as McAdam points out, they would more than willing to do so for phones, if customers are amendable. That said, Verizon has done quite well for itself with the current system — it has no reason to gunk up the works unless there is some massive shift in consumer sentiment.

There’s a reason why T-Mobile was the carrier to challenge the long-established contract-and-subsidy model: it had nothing to lose. It is the smallest — by a big margin — of the four national operators, and for the last several years it has barely grown. You can call its Un-carrier strategy an act of genius or you can call it an act of desperation, but T-Mobile had to do something and had to do that something quick. McAdam only has to sit back and wait to see if it works. And he’ll likely have to wait a while since many of the customers who might be interested in what T-Mo is selling are still locked into contracts.

So what if T-Mo’s new contract-free plans prove wildly successful? Would other carriers give up on contracts completely? I seriously doubt it. Verizon, AT&T and Sprint may have their issues with the subsidy model, but they also love to the stability of long-term contracts. The last thing they want is a constantly shifting customer base, in which huge numbers of subscribers turn over each quarter. Even if the carriers didn’t have to absorb device subsidies, there are still substantial costs associated with acquiring new customers. They would much rather just lock down the ones they have.

All three carriers offer prepaid services for customers who demand or don’t qualify for postpaid services, and most carriers will sell you a postpaid plan without a contract if you pay for your device upfront. In fact, they benefit considerably if you do so because they’ll charge you the same monthly rates they do for subsidized customers – they get their cake and eat it too.

That’s where I think the other carriers will have the biggest difficulty adjusting to contract-free models. To make that model the work they’ll have to charge lower voice, SMS and data rates to those customers who eschew subsidies. If carriers are no longer recouping the cost of the device, they can’t justify the rates they charge today. Lowering rates is not something they want to do.

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Customers who buy a device from T-Mobile through one of its financing plans (for instance, the iPhone 5 can be had for $100 up front and 24 monthly payments of $20) will still get locked devices. But T-Mobile CMO Mike Sievert said whenever a customer finishes paying off his or her financing plan, T-Mobile will unconditionally unlock the device.

Earlier this month, I wrote that the phone locking was a symptom of the broken subsidy model used by carriers. T-Mobile is now fixing the subsidy system, but it’s not ending the practice of locking. What gives?

Well, the answer is a bit nuanced. Instead of diving headlong into the murky depths of full-cost devices, where customers wind up fronting the costs of a $500 or $600 smartphones on day one, T-Mobile is easing customers into the model with interest-free financing plans.

Though it’s separating the device from service plan – and eliminating the contract in the process – T-Mobile is still on hook for the device cost, and it wants ensure that its customers won’t take their new iPhone or Galaxy S 4 and then bolt to another carrier. As with any loan, customers are still bound by financing contract, but T-Mobile wants extra insurance that they won’t renege.

T-Mobile USA CEO John Legere

At the event on Tuesday, T-Mobile went to lengths to explain that it is against the idea of locking all phones for the mere sake of binding customers to a specific carrier. In fact, T-Mobile hopes to benefit enormously from an unlocked device market, said T-Mobile USA CEO John Legere. He’s hoping AT&T customers will take their out-of-contract and unlocked devices over to T-Mobile, giving them a second life on T-Mobile’s network.

Legere also said that T-Mobile is a strong advocate of device portability — Customers can take an unlocked phone to T-Mobile for a month, and if they’re not happy they can move on to the next carrier. T-Mobile expects to win out in any head-to-head contest with a major carrier over unlocked devices because it won’t be factoring contract subsidies into its pricing plans. “The rate plan is just going to be about the service,” Legere said.

With that philosophy in mind, T-Mobile will unlock any device as soon as the customer’s financial obligation for it is over. If a customer buys a phone up front, T-Mobile will unlock it, Sievert said. If they accelerate their financing agreement and pay the phone off early, then T-Mobile will unlock it, Sievert said. If they return the phone to T-Mobile before the contract ends, T-Mobile will credit their financing agreement with the current market value of the device, Sievert said.

It’s not an ideal situation. There are uses for unlocked phone even if you’re sticking with your service provider – traveling overseas for instance – but I can understand why T-Mobile is imposing the locking practice. Ultimately it seems that if we want to be free of the carrier yoke entirely, we’ll have to start buying our devices outright.

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All of that legislation and bluster, however, isn’t going to solve the fundamental problem that produced the practice of locking devices in the first place: handset subsidies.

There’s a reason why carriers lock phones. They’re heavily discounting the cost of most devices, which is why you can get a $500 smartphone for $100 and many mid-range and low-end handsets for free. Carriers make their money back through monthly subscription fees that factor in those subsidy costs. For carriers to get the full value of the phone back, subscribers need to finish out their contracts, and locking devices to their networks functions as their insurance policy. It’s a hell of lot easier than repossessing phones.

The bottom line is most consumers don’t really own their phones. They’re mortgaging them. Just like you can’t sell your home without paying off your bank loan, carriers don’t want you selling your phone or taking it to another carrier without finishing your contract and paying off your handset loan.

Thus, we’re left with the locking mess, which leads to all of the problems pointed out by locking’s critics: Having to jump through hoops to get your carrier to unlock a phone when your contract is up, the inability to use another carrier’s SIM card when traveling overseas, and the difficulty of building a resale market for phones when the majority of devices are locked.

Why unlocking phones doesn’t solve the problem

Making it legal and easy to unlock phones might seem like an easy solution to this problem, but I guarantee you carriers will find some other way to protect their investments. Carriers could require deposits, implement some kind of collateral fee, institute more onerous contract restrictions, or they could simply raise prices. If carriers start losing money when customers skip out on the contracts, you can bet the customers that remain will have to make up the difference.

I’m not saying it’s right. I’m just saying that in this messed-up subsidy system, everyone is trying to protect their own interests. Consumers will try to unlock their phones, and carriers will try to stop them.

If we get rid of subsidies completely, though, all of those conflicting interests go away. Once you separate the service from the device, carriers have no interest — and no right — to lock devices. You may still be under contract, but since there is no subsidy recovery fee bound up in your monthly bill, carriers could care less what you do with your device.

Of course, paying full price for your phone is an expensive proposition. An unsubsidized iPhone 5 costs between $649 and $849, as opposed to the $200 to $400 most carriers charge with contract. But in the long run buying your phone up front will probably save you money. T-Mobile has been a trailblazer in this area, charging cheaper monthly rates for voice and data if you don’t opt for a phone subsidy. What’s more, once subsidies are gone, handset makers will be able to sell their wares directly to consumers, which could lead to a greater variety of devices and more price competition in the device market.

Ultimately, mobile voice and data rates are so high because our phones are so cheap — artificially cheap. If we reverse that equation, we wind up with cheaper subscriptions, more choice and phones we can do with as we please.

What can you do with an unlocked phone?

Unfortunately, having an unlocked device doesn’t leave you with too many options in the U.S. If you travel internationally with a GSM-capable phone you can plug in a local carrier’s SIM card and pay local rates. But in the U.S. itself there isn’t much mobility between carriers.

U.S. operators are split between GSM and CDMA camps, and while it is possible to activate a Verizon phone on Sprint’s network or bring an AT&T device to T-Mobile, there’s no guarantee that you’ll have to access every network or service they offer. U.S. carriers don’t just use different radio technologies, they use different spectrum bands. The band fragmentation problem got even worse with the introduction of LTE.

But there are signs that things will get better. T-Mobile is in the process of overhauling its network, aligning its 3G bands with those of AT&T. In 4G, we’re starting to see some LTE network convergence around the Advanced Wireless Services (AWS) band. We’re even seeing more dual-mode GSM-CDMA devices making their way into the market.

With emerging smart antenna and radio module technologies, handset makers will soon be able to pack a dozen bands into a single device. Eventually we might even see a universal phone in the U.S. that can work on any carrier’s networks, no matter what combination of technologies and frequencies they use. And if that point we’re no longer weighed down by subsidies, contracts or locked devices, consumers will be able to switch to any operator at their whim. That’s not a bad choice to have.

Mortgage image courtesy of Shutterstock user Stuart Miles; Smartphones image courtesy of Shutterstock user Reno Martin; SIM cards image courtesy of Flickr user mroach

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GoSmart plans start at $30 a month, including unlimited talk and text. For $5 more a month, you can get unlimited Web access, but only on T-Mobile’s 2G GPRS and EDGE networks. For $45 a month, you can upgrade to the 3G HSPA network and get 5 GB of data, after which you’ll be throttled down to 2G speeds. It’s important to note T-Mo is specifically saying 3G here even though its marketing its HSPA+ network as 4G. The implication is that even GoSmart users on the $45 plan won’t get access to the full bandwidth available over its data networks.

GoSmart is offering only two devices without subsidies, a $50 Alcatel feature phone and a $100 ZTE Android 2.3 device, which is a pretty good bargain for a smartphone. GoSmart’s main go-to-market package appears to be a SIM kit that allows a customer to activate any GSM device they bring to the network. That strategy seems to replicate the SIM services that have proven so successful for Tracfone and other mobile virtual network operators.

But why is T-Mobile creating an entirely new brand for prepaid when it already sells a lot of contract-free plans under the official T-Mobile? The carrier is probably trying to create two distinct classes of prepaid of service so it can tailor its marketing for each. T-Mobile’s branded prepaid emphasizes T-Mobile HSPA+ data network, bigger and faster data plans and higher-end devices.

Meanwhile, GoSmart is clearly targeted at the more voice-centric budget user. Sprint follows the same approach, though its segmented its prepaid services into numerous brands, including Virgin Mobile, Boost Mobile and Assurance Wireless.

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Though Legere and T-Mobile haven’t said explicitly which Apple device or devices the carrier would sell, the timing would put T-Mobile in line to retail the current-generation iPhone 5 a good four to five months before the smartphone is likely to be refreshed this fall. There’s also the off chance that T-Mobile might be a candidate for the rumored “cheap iPhone” Apple is supposedly developing.

Neville Ray, CTO, T-Mobile (c) 2012 Pinar Ozger pinar@pinarozger.com

What’s more, T-Mobile probably wouldn’t have to sell the iPhone as a mere 3G device as many international operators and smaller U.S. carriers are forced to do. T-Mobile CTO Neville Ray revealed at T-Mo’s big CES event that he would have a good portion of his LTE network online by mid-2013. Couple that with Ray’s rapidly accelerating HSPA+ network upgrade around the country, and T-Mobile will be able to support all of the iPhone 5’s connectivity capabilities in many of its markets at launch. Not bad for a carrier that couldn’t get anything more than a 2G signal to the iPhone just six months ago.

T-Mobile originally planned to launch LTE in the second half of this year, making it the last U.S. operator to deploy the latest generation mobile broadband technology. T-Mobile is still behind its primary competitors, but management has apparent lit a fire under Ray’s engineering team. At CES, Ray said T-Mo’s first LTE systems would go online in Las Vegas in the next few weeks, which would put him five months ahead of schedule.

The iPhone won’t be the only device benefiting from T-Mobile’s accelerated LTE plans. The Verge is reporting that T-Mobile will soon offer an LTE version of the Samsung’s popular Galaxy S III smartphone. Though The Verge didn’t name a launch date, the device could hit shelves well in advance of the actual LTE launch since T-Mobile could activate its LTE radios at any time with a simple over-the-air software update.

T-Mobile had a big CES. In addition to the LTE and iPhone revelations, T-Mobile made multiple updates to its technology and service plans.

• My colleague Kevin Tofel wrote about T-Mobile’s plans to take unlimited smartphone plans contract-free, answering one of T-Mobile customers’ biggest gripes. T-Mobile is moving to an unsubsidized model, meaning customers will either pay full freight for their devices, bring their own phones or buy them in installments. Since contracts are supposed to cover carriers’ upfront subsidy costs, enforcing contracts with no subsidy makes little sense. It will be interesting to see if T-Mobile moves away from contracts completely as it phases out subsidies this year.
• T-Mobile revealed its network is now high-definition-voice compatible, which means it can support a much higher call quality than current cellular voice systems. Three current devices – the Galaxy S III, the HTC One S and the Nokia Astound phone – will support the HD features, but there are also some big limitations to its initial appeal. As PC Mag’s Sascha Segan explains, HD calls will only work between T-Mobile devices that both have the HD client, and so far T-Mo’s technology is incompatible with any of the HD codecs other carriers are working on.
• In order to encourage devices other than smartphones onto is network, T-Mobile is offering 200 MB of free data each month for two years on select Windows 8 laptops. Called 4G Connect, the program could get really interesting if T-Mobile expands it tablets, providing a big incentive for consumers to buy 4G versions of the iPad and other slates.
• T-Mobile has upgraded its HSPA+ network to support iPhone frequencies in four more markets: Denver, Los Angeles, San Diego and Virginia Beach, Va. The network refarming is now complete in 46 cities covering 126 million people. The reconfiguration is key to T-Mobile supporting the iPhone’s data capabilities, and at its current pace should be largely complete at the iPhone’s launch.

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Both MetroPCS and Leap Wireless’s Cricket Communications recently launched financing programs of their own to encourage their prepaid customers to buy high-end devices like the iPhone 5, FierceWireless is reporting. Metro and Leap executives both told Fierce that they are working with Progressive Financing – MetroPCS is additionally working with BillFloat – to offer low, up-front payments on otherwise expensive devices, making up the balance through monthly installments.

Cricket customers can walk out of the store with an iPhone 5 — which Leap normally sells partially subsidized for $500 — for $105. Customers will wind up paying more for the device via interest and repayment fees, Fierce reported, but neither BillFloat nor Progressive require a credit check, which fits well the carriers’ prepaid business model. Instead, the companies withdraw payments directly from a bank account.

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Put simply, T-Mobile is upending the established business and device distribution models of the U.S. wireless industry, separating the handset from the service. It’s a model that’s thrived in Europe and other countries, but it’s one that’s failed to gain traction in the U.S. except in the prepaid market, namely because U.S. consumers like getting even the most sophisticated high-end phones on the cheap.

Traditionally a U.S. operator sells a device at a steep discount in an effort to lure customers. It doesn’t just write off that subsidy. It makes that money back and then some by charging higher rates for voice and data over a long contract term. It’s a model that’s worked well for big operators like AT&T and Verizon Wireless, turning them into two of the most profitable and highest revenue-generating operators in the world despite the fact that many multinational carriers have far more subscribers.

T-Mobile proposes to reverse the equation with its Value Plans. Customers pay the full cost of their device, either up front or in installments, or bring their own compatible handsets. In exchange, T-Mobile will offer them cheaper rates, in many cases $20 a month cheaper than it would charge for a subsidized phone plan. Do the math: that’s $480 in savings over two years, which in many cases is much more than the up-front discounts operators are offering on subsidized phones (For instance, a Samsung Galaxy S III subsidy on T-Mobile is $350 including rebate). Given that T-Mobile’s subsidized rates are already much cheaper than its major competitors, the savings from T-Mobile’s Value Plans are compounded.

The repercussions of T-Mobile’s strategy will be felt far beyond the point-of-sale and monthly bill, though. If successful, T-Mobile’s elimination of subsidies could have a huge impact throughout the U.S. mobile ecosystem, changing how we value our devices and our relationships with our carriers and handset manufacturers.

• The rise of phone financing: T-Mobile knows that it will take a while for consumers to overcome the sticker shock of a paying full freight for phones. T-Mo CEO John Legere said T-Mobile would implement financing programs that would mitigate those up-front costs. In the example he gave, a customer could get an “iconic smartphone” for $99 down with monthly installments of $15 to $20 for 20 months.  This will look pretty similar to a subsidy plan to most customers – the device payments will just be separate from the service fees on the monthly bill. But operators won’t necessarily be the only ones financing. Handset makers, electronics retailers could offer their own programs.
• Greater portability of handsets between carriers: There will always be restrictions on where you can bring your phone due to huge variation in network technologies used by U.S. carriers. But moving to an unsubsidized model means for the first time consumers can buy their devices and then select their carriers. Keep in mind T-Mobile’s Value Plans are still contract plans (for now), but it offers prepaid plans as wells. By buying their phones up front consumers would have more flexibility in moving GSM/HSPA phones between T-Mobile, AT&T and the growing number of mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) that use their networks.
• Less carrier control: If your carrier isn’t selling you your device then they should have less say in what services or apps you can use. That could be a simple as avoiding the pre-installed apps carriers load onto our smartphones, but it could also mean that you’re no longer dependent on your carrier to ship you OS upgrades. It will also be more difficult for them to restrict over-the-top services over their networks (read FaceTime) or limit you to their mobile payment services.
• A larger selection of devices: Carriers have always acted as device gatekeepers in the U.S. Until recently, Nokia couldn’t make a dent in the U.S. because it couldn’t strike the right operator deals. Unsubsidized phones mean that vendors can start marketing and selling directly consumers with no carrier middleman.
• Huawei and ZTE could become household names: These two Chinese juggernauts have made some in-roads to the U.S., but they’ve only gotten as far as the carriers have let them. Mostly their U.S. business consists of low-end feature phones or inexpensive carrier-branded smartphones like T-Mobile’s MyTouch. But a vibrant direct-to-consumer market could benefit Huawei and ZTE immensely. Both can make high-end smartphones at low prices, which would be very appealing to consumers paying the full cost of their devices.
• The development of a vibrant phone resale market: Smartphones are expensive and sophisticated devices, but their low subsidized cost in the U.S. has caused us to treat them like throw-away electronics. But if customers are faced with full sticker price of their phones, they would be more inclined to reuse them and sell them to recover their costs, and customers on a budget would be more inclined to buy used and refurbished phones.

Of course, T-Mobile is just one carrier. The other operators have also expressed discontent with the subsidy model, but they aren’t going to give up on it overnight. In fact, they will probably attempt exploit T-Mobile’s big strategy shift for all its worth. Verizon, AT&T and Sprint have a huge advantage: they will “sell” the same iPhone for $200 that T-Mobile is asking customers to buy for $650 – that’s a powerful argument.

T-Mobile has a tough job ahead of it convincing customers they will save money and benefit from its model in the long run. If T-Mo succeeds, other carriers will follow its lead, changing the U.S. mobile industry for the better. If it doesn’t, this will be just another noble but failed experiment for the history books.

Feature photo courtesy of Shutterstock user Robert Kyllo; T-Mobile image courtesy of Flickr user swruler9284

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Iliad founder Xavier Neil told France’s Capital magazine that those fees wind up amounting to interest rates of 300 to 400 percent in a one-to two-year contract. That may sound excessive, but if you take a closer look at huge gap in pricing between prepaid and postpaid carriers, it doesn’t seem too far off base.

Free Mobile, for instance, doesn’t offer a subsidy on its devices and it manages to sell voice and data at ridiculously low rates, which is what set off the France’s price war in the first place. Of course, Free uses a few technical tricks to keep its prices low, the biggest being the 4 million home and business Wi-Fi access points it uses to offload data traffic.

But shunting traffic off of expensive cellular networks doesn’t explain the price differences entirely. You only have to look to the U.S. prepaid and mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) sectors to see that. Prepaid operators like Leap Wireless’s Cricket and MetroPCS offer voice and data plan equivalents to AT&T and Verizon’s at very steep discounts. They require customers to pay all or most of the costs of their handsets up front. In exchange, they not only charge cheaper rates but don’t tie customers down to contracts.

The price gap is even more visible when you start looking at the new batch of MVNOs emerging in the U.S. Operators like TracFone’s Straight Talk, H2O Wireless and Red Pocket just sell SIM cards, but they offer unlimited voice and SMS plans as well as data buckets that undercut major carriers’ prices by half or more. These operators have no ingrained technology advantage. They’re buying their minutes and bytes from AT&T and T-Mobile at wholesale rates, but they’re charging significantly less when it comes to retailing the final product.

In Europe, procuring your device and your service plan separately is common, but it’s still very much a foreign concept in the U.S. where consumers have become accustomed to the idea that smartphones are cheap disposable electronic goods. Carriers have been more than willing to reinforce that misconception so long as customers are willing to pay high monthly rates and sign long-term contracts.

There are signs of change, though. T-Mobile – which already offers some of the cheapest rates for a major carrier – is aggressively pushing its value plans, which offer significant discounts on voice and data plans if subscribers pay for their phones up front or bring their own devices to the party. It’s going to take more than just T-Mobile to change consumer mindset. Other carriers have signaled they’re open to the idea of unsubsidized plans, but the impetus for change may come from consumers, not carriers.

There’s a growing discontent with the high price of mobile service, and a sizable number of prepaid operators and MVNOs have arisen to feed that discontent. Eventually the realization will follow that the high prices we’re paying aren’t necessarily for data, rather we’re paying back the mortgage on our phones.

Featured photo courtesy of Shutterstock user Stuart Miles; SIM cards image courtesy of Flickr user mroach

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Speaking at a Geekwire conference earlier this month, T-Mobile CMO Cole Brodman said if he had a magic wand he would use it to eliminate subsidies in the wireless industry because giving huge discounts in exchange for two-year contracts basically de-values mobile technology. His point was that if you charge me $50 for a $500 smartphone, you’re teaching me that the sophisticated mobile computer in my hand is just a mere throw-away device.

That’s bold talk from a carrier, especially from T-Mobile since it aggressively subsidizes it handsets. But nobody really expected T-Mobile to do anything about it. As Brodman admitted in his Geekwire talk, handset subsidies are here to stay, no matter how much wireless carriers claim to disdain them. But it appears T-Mobile does plan to doing something about subsidies: it’s taking the unusual step of raising prices on customers that opt for phone discounts.

According to documents obtained by TmoNews, in April T-Mobile plans to raise prices by $5 on two of its most popular mobile data bundles, but only on new customers who take a discount device from the carrier. Its value bundles, which allow a customer to pay the unsubsidized price of a phone up front or in installments (also known as bring your own device), will remain the same price and are already substantially cheaper then “Classic” subsidized plans. The bottom line is that new customers who fall for the lure of a cheap smartphone could wind up paying as much as $20 more a month for a voice and data plan than a customer who opts to fork over the device’s true cost.

Price increases are usually never good, but as TmoNews’ David Beren claimed, this may be the exception, and I happen to agree with him. Subsidized phones are truly never free. Operators just factor in the cost of the device into the contract. We wind up paying higher prices per megabyte and per voice minute because of it. The problem is once those contracts expire and operators have made back their customer acquisition costs, they don’t charge lower rates.

T-Mobile is removing the shadowy accounting veil from those policies, showing – quite aggressively – that a good deal of the cost of our rate plans is really just a mortgage payment against our phones. Do the math yourself: $20 times 24 months equals $480 in savings over the life of a contract. Meanwhile you can buy T-Mobile’s newest smartphone, the Nokia Lumia 710, for an unsubsidized price of $350. Suddenly that ‘free’ subsidy doesn’t seem like such a great deal anymore.

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