Apple is holding a press event in San Jose, Calif. on Tuesday morning where it is expected to introduce a smaller, thinner, lighter-weight iPad with a 7.85-inch display; one that is expected to be easy on the eyes, but not quite to the level of the Retina display found on its larger iPad sibling, according to many reports.

Though there is enthusiasm for a smaller iPad now, perhaps thanks in part to some demand for Android tablets of that size, it was never a guarantee that Apple would experiment in smaller sizes with its iPad franchise. The company has boasted about the iPad’s larger screen being ideal for viewing videos and photos and browsing the web. And Steve Jobs maintained publicly that going smaller was pointless — he called 7-inch tablets “dead on arrival.” He made that pronouncement on an earnings call almost two years ago to the day that Apple is holding this event.

Why Apple changed its mind

Outside of its design philosophy, Apple is a conservative company — it is borderline allergic to industry fads (keeping away from Blu-ray drives and NFC technology, for instance) and it doesn’t embrace technology until its been proven (Siri and its own Maps app notwithstanding). But it is very adept at spotting where the market is headed. The iPad’s small changes thus far illustrate that: Apple finally added 4G networking and a Retina display earlier this year.

But if you followed Jobs and his career long enough, you know he was extremely prone to changing his mind; a flip-flopper, even. So when it was revealed this summer that before his death, Jobs was “receptive” to the idea of a smaller iPad, it’s really not too big of a shock.

His attitude toward smaller tablets isn’t the only thing that’s changed in the last few years. Apple’s competitors have figured out that, yes, actually people do want a 7-inch tablets. Amazon found that out a year ago. Google released its first branded Nexus tablet this summer and nearly a million are estimated to have been shipped. Microsoft has completely rejiggered its Windows operating system and embraced a new world of integrated hardware and software. The first device it’s choosing to highlight those new products and strategies? A 7-inch touchscreen tablet.

In this light, it’s not surprising that Apple would get used to the idea of a smaller iPad: it can’t just let its biggest rivals lure current or potential customers away with smaller, more easily portable, and cheaper tablets. That would go against one of Jobs’ philosophies, to not allow companies to follow Apple into the market and let them undercut its products on price. As he said about the iPhone, “I think we have to be the best, and I think we have to not leave a price umbrella underneath us.”

The big questions

Though Apple’s plans for a smaller iPad have been a not-very-well-kept secret — this is a theme with Apple lately — there are still big questions we have going into the event. Here’s what we’ll be looking out for:

• Price: Will it be more expensive than an iPod touch, but cheaper than an entry-level iPad? That would put it anywhere in the $300 to $498 range. But would Apple dare to go even cheaper than an iPod touch? John Gruber reasons that it may be priced starting at $249.
• Screen size fragmentation: iOS runs on a variety of screen sizes: 3.7-inch iPod touch and older iPhones, 4-inch iPhone 5, and 9.7-inch iPad. How will a 7.85-inch display affect those developers who have to tailor their apps to even more screen sizes?
• Name: The tech world has dubbed it the “iPad mini,” in a nod to the since-retired iPod mini. But Apple has been known to surprise with its somewhat unpredictable naming conventions.
• Connectivity: In an attempt to differentiate a smaller iPad from the original, would Apple possibly make this product Wi-Fi only? Or will Apple offer 4G networking options identical to the larger iPad?
• Spotlight on the Mac: This is not going to be an iPad-only show. I’ve heard there will be a new iMac (at long last) and a 13-inch version of the recently introduced MacBook Pro with Retina display. There have also been reports of a new Mac mini.
• A new new iPad: Yes, the new (third-generation) iPad was just released in March. But there are reports that Apple will use Tuesday’s event to introduce a brand new 9.7-inch iPad that has been slightly tweaked: with a Lightning connector like the iPhone 5 and new iPod lineup, and new global LTE radios inside. Pricing is said to remain the same.
• When can you start buying? It’s not clear when the Mac products would hit, though Apple is often ready to sell those on the day they’re announced. Leaked info indicates a Nov. 2 availability for a smaller iPad, which puts it on store shelves just in time to go head to head with the new Amazon and Microsoft tablets ahead of the holidays.

GigaOM will be live blogging the event Tuesday morning. We’ll kick things off a little before 10 a.m. PT.

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Apple used a phrase in the invitation that seems to be a nod to such a device: “We have a little more to show you,” it reads — with “little” seeming to be a play on a small iPad.

This event will be held at a different venue than we’re used to for Apple, at the California Theater in San Jose. However, it begins, as normal for an Apple event, at 10 a.m. PT.

It’s expected that Apple will use the venue to unveil an iPad with a screen that measures 7.85 inches, and that it will be a high-definition display, but not necessarily up to the standard of the larger iPad’s Retina display.

Apple’s smaller tablet is expected to touch off a high-stakes battle for buyers this holiday season and beyond, where it will be competing with new tablets from Amazon, Google and Microsoft. How Apple prices a device without a Retina display and with a smaller screen is something everyone will be watching for.

GigaOM will be at the event in San Jose with live up-to-the-minute coverage, so be sure to join us next Tuesday.

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• Apple’s September event used to be about iTunes and new iPods. The iPhone, however, has usurped the attention (and profits) from Apple’s iconic music player, but iPods still account for three-quarters of all MP3 players sold. So let’s not forget: before Apple executives get around to announcing the new iPhone tomorrow, they’ll probably show us new iPods. (via MacRumors)
• CNN walks us through Apple’s careful event choreography. For those planning to follow along the iPhone event tomorrow (we’ll be live blogging!), check this out first and see for yourself how closely Apple sticks to the same basic script.
• David Schuetz, the mobile security expert that tracked those Apple device IDs leaked by Anonymous, tells us how he figured out the true source of the UDIDs — an appmaker in Florida, not the FBI.
• American Airlines is the first major airline approved for iPad use in “all phases of flight.” And it won’t just be the pilots who’ll use the tablets to replace flight manuals, charts and maps. Soon AA flight attendants will use the devices to keep track of passenger details and in-flight service, says Smart Planet.
• Thompson Reuters analysts attempt to divine the future of the iPhone by combing through Apple’s mobile patent portfolio. (via 9to5 Mac)

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The picture included in the invitation shows what appears to be the bottom dock of an iPad. And as many have observed, the screen resolution looks a good bit sharper than the display of the iPad 2. A hint at the long-expected (and long-wished for) Retina Display?

What else can we expect of the next-generation iPad? Upgraded chips, better cameras, slightly thicker body and perhaps 4G connectivity.

We’ll find out the whole story at the event, which will be held at Apple favorite The Yerba Buena Center for the Arts in San Francisco, as reported earlier by AllThingsD.

It starts at 10 a.m. GigaOM, as always, will be there to cover the event live.

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In contrast, TheAppleBlog’s Darrell Etherington urged caution in predictions of an iPad 3, though he suggested there might be room for a complementary model. Arguably, his caution was prudent. During the iPad 2 launch event in March, a Keynote slide declared 2011 to be the year of the iPad 2. Singular.

Even so, Apple leadership has a habit of altering the company’s course, often very suddenly, as with the transition from Mac OS to OS X or from PPC CPU architecture to x86. More recently, after years of asserting a 13-inch display was the minimum size for a laptop, the company launched the 11-inch MacBook Air. Perhaps similarly, after asserting a 9.7-inch display was the minimum for a tablet, Apple might yet launch a 7-inch iPad 2.

The problem with a 7-inch iPad is that there doesn’t seem to be a lot of interest, or rather, there’s a huge amount of interest in the 9.7-inch iPad 2, which suggests consumers aren’t sweating the lack of a smaller version. From AppleInsider, Ticonderoga Securities analyst Brian White’s “barometer” of Apple component suppliers suggests their triple-digit growth “was driven largely by the ramp of iPad 2.” Fortune reports on a “small but growing group” of analysts predicting 7 million iPads sold this quarter. That would come after Apple sold a record 7.3 million iPads during the holiday quarter last year, and would be a strong indicator of iPad sales in excess of 30 million this year, double last year’s total. Finally, DigiTimes is citing supply-chain sources that “have not yet received any notice for next generation iPad products and do not believe iPad 2 is a transitional product.”

The circumstantial evidence so far is against another iPad this year, including a 7-inch model. Setting aside the repeated denunciations of the smaller display by Apple executives, the real question would be, why introduce a new model when the current one is so successful? There is no reason, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Take the example of the iPod Mini. In 2005, the multi-colored iPod Mini with its hard-drive storage was hugely successful, and yet in the fall of that year, it was promptly replaced by the smaller iPod nano.

There’s something about the “year of the iPad 2″ assertion that seems too certain, too definitive for a company as unpredictable as Apple. Since when does Apple provide any information about its product release plans more than a few weeks in advance? Despite indications that Apple is sticking to one iPad model release per year, there’s just no such thing as a safe bet when it comes to this company.

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Citing a “trusted source” at a “major educational institution,” iLounge is also now also predicting a MobileMe relaunch in April. A new, free version of the online service will apparently coexist alongside the current paid version for the next year. Presumably, that would cover those like myself unfortunate enough to have recently renewed their MobileMe account, but without Apple having to offer refunds or credits. However, a deprecated service running alongside a free one seems confusing and very much out of character for Apple, and I think it’s more likely a free service would coexist alongside other paid tiers.

The possibility of an imminent iOS 5 preview does seem likely, too. Last year, the iOS 4 preview showed multi-tasking, Game Center, iAd, and AirPrint, though the last was eventually scaled back from its earlier incarnation. Perhaps we’ll get an update on AirPrint this year in iOS 5 that expands support beyond a few select printers.

As for MobileMe, the recent discontinuation of retail boxes is probably the best indicator of an imminent relaunch. Besides that, it’s been widely rumored that some kind of storage “locker” for media content, music and video, will be part of the service. The most interesting social networking feature that’s been talked about for the service is a new personal homepage, dynamically updated based upon where you are and what you are doing.

While “free” is likely the most anticipated potential feature of a new MobileMe, I’d personally prefer Apple-hosted domains. What features are you looking for in a new MobileMe?

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CEO Steve Jobs began today’s Apple event by turning over the stage to COO Tim Cook, who gave a short “State of the Mac” speech which illustrated both the strength of the platform and its importance to Apple.

Last fiscal year, the Mac accounted for 33 percent of Apple’s business, generating $22 billion in revenue, an amount that would make a “Mac company” number 11o in the Fortune 500 list. While that’s impressive, the real story is in the number of Macs sold: some 13.7 million for fiscal year 2010, three times the number sold just five years ago.

Cook went on to point out the effect that astounding growth has had on the development community, noting there were more than 600,000 Mac developers, and the number was growing at a rate of 30,000 per month. Cook then noted a few premier developers, like Valve with Steam, and now AutoCad for the Mac.

Moving to retail, Apple announced it now has 318 stores worldwide, visited by some 75 million people last quarter. Of the 875,000 Macs bought in Apple Stores, half were sold to people new to the platform. In the U.S., Mac market share is now at a shocking 20.7 percent of retail sales, which is astounding considering that just a decade ago, Mac market share was in free fall.

Customers are happier than ever with the Mac, too. According to Cook, the Mac is the top-rated computer in terms of satisfaction going back many years from respected organizations like Consumer Reports. If you had any fears that the Mac wasn’t important to Apple, banish them now.

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The original rumors of a new MacBook Air can be traced to Taiwanese newspaper DigiTimes. Citing sources in the supply chain, DigiTime predicted an 11.6-inch MacBook Air, featuring an ultra-low voltage processor from Intel’s Core i-series. The new MacBook Air would also have “an even slimmer and lighter design,” and use new technologies that will eventually proliferate across Apple’s portable lineup.

Some of those new technologies could include “amorphous, non-crystalline, metal alloy” from LiquidMetal Technologies, whose IP Apple recently acquired. That would mean a MacBook Air enclosure that is both lighter and stronger than the current aluminum unibody model. In a contradictory report, AppleInsider refers to “chatter” suggesting the new MacBook Air enclosure will instead be using carbon fiber and weigh as little as 2.7 pounds.

AppleInsider is also reporting with confidence that the new MacBook Air will have neither a conventional mechanical drive, nor a solid-state drive. Instead, it will use an “SSD Card,” which “more closely resembles a stick of RAM,” but may not be accessible to the user. As the MacBook Air currently has its RAM soldered to the system board, this wouldn’t be a surprising development.

A display size of 11.6 inches is being reported by many outlets, including CNET. The site reports that the new MacBook Air will continue to use “older” Core processors from Intel, along with NVIDIA’s MCP89 chipset, like the current model. What’s not the same is the price, which will be “significantly lower” than $1,499, the starting price of the current MacBook Air.

Seeming to contradict everyone else, there’s the image of an alleged MacBook Air prototype from Engadget showing a 13.3-inch enclosure. It appears to have USB ports on both sides, a Mini DisplayPort, an SD card slot, and power connection. There doesn’t appear to be any kind of drive enclosure on the system board, but instead a curious stick of RAM near the top left.

All these rumors are impossible to reconcile in just one new MacBook Air, but maybe not if Apple ships two distinct models. AppleInsider reports this will be the case, with the 11.6-inch model “a more aggressively priced option.” Further refinements will include a button-less trackpad, and the elimination of the port door housing the USB and Mini DisplayPort. Both models will continue to be extremely thin.

Internally, the larger model is expected to continue to use the Core 2 Duo and NVIDIA chipset. If so, it’s likely the more aggressively priced model will do the same, which would be unfortunate. With Intel’s new microprocessor architecture just two months away, the new MacBook Air will be two generations behind the rest of the world and suffer in performance and battery life because of it.

One MacBook Air or two: find out the truth with TheAppleBlog on Wednesday, starting at 10:00 a.m. PST.

UPDATED:

Cult of Mac now cites “independent confirmation” of two traditional 13.3-inch MacBook Air models, and a new 11.6-inch model. The 13.3-inch form factor will not be as “curvy,” as the current Macbook Air, but “boxier, like the iPhone 4 design.” Although the new MacBook Air will still have an aluminum unibody enclosure, it will weigh less than the current model’s three pounds.

The case will feature two USB ports, one on each side, an SD card slot, a MiniDisplay port, and a new MagSafe port. A larger battery will provide eight to ten hours of power. An “amazing” boot time suggests some sort of solid state storage. There will be two models, running at 2.1 GHz and 2.4 GHz with 2GB and 4GB RAM. Pricing will be as low as $1300. These 13.3-inch models would be in addition to a 11.6-inch model, which allegedly will start at $999.

It’s hard to believe Apple is about to “blow up” its pricing model, but in just two days we’ll know.

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• In January, the iPad was unveiled.
• In April, iPhone OS 4 was previewed.
• In June, the iPhone 4 was launched at WWDC ‘10, and iOS 4 was previewed again.
• In September, iTunes 10, new iPods and an Apple TV were launched, as well as iOS 4.1 and 4.2 previews.

If there’s been any trend in 2010, it’s found in what’s been missing. No Apple event, including WWDC, has seen the introduction of a new Mac. Even the redesigned Mac mini arrived with no more advance notice than the familiar yellow sticky note when the Apple Store went down. Don’t expect that to change this year.

The Return of the Air

The iMac and the Mac Pro were updated in July, the Mac mini in June. The MacBook and MacBook Pros were updated in spring, and can expect a minor, non-event update this fall. That leaves the MacBook Air, last updated in June 2009.

Sandy Bridge, Intel’s latest microprocessor architecture, is made for the MacBook Air, as the 32nm processor puts both the CPU and GPU on a single die. Early reports suggest the integrated graphics are comparable to low-end discrete graphics and will support OpenCL. While all Mac portables will benefit from the new chipset, the MacBook Air has the most to gain in performance and battery life.

With the 13” MacBook Pro and the iPad encroaching on its niche from opposite ends of performance and portability, the MacBook Air is probably doomed. If not, the most logical date for a significant revision is early 2011 when Sandy Bridge goes into production. While it’s still unlikely we’ll see the MacBook Air featured at an Apple event, there won’t be a better time.

iApps Ring in the New Year

Despite listings on Amazon for iLife ‘11 that have since disappeared, and rumors of iLife being introduced at the September event proving untrue, it’s hard to imagine Apple’s flagship consumer applications just showing up on a Tuesday morning. Instead, it’s more likely they’ll appear alongside new computers. Both iWork and iLife for OS X were last updated in January of 2009, so again the logical time would early next year.

Two iPad 2′s

January saw the iPad introduced to the world, followed by sales in April and May for the Wi-Fi and 3G models respectively. Don’t expect that to happen again. Apple will launch the next generation iPad in either winter or spring of 2011 for immediate sale, and it seems increasingly likely it will be spring.

The latest from the unreliable but entertaining DigiTimes asserts parts suppliers are preparing shipments for a 9.7-inch iPad with “ultra-thin glass-based” displays. Previous rumors suggested the iPad 2 will have a new ARM Cortex A9 CPU and 512MB RAM. Other rumored features include cameras and FaceTime support.

Supposedly, there will also be a 7-inch iPad, which seems less and less improbable (despite the opinion of others here) with the arrival of the Samsung Galaxy Tab. With a 7-inch AMOLED display, front and rear cameras and Android 2.2, this will be the first potential competitor to the iPad.

The Tab will be arriving soon in the U.S. with a 3G model for each wireless carrier, and the Wi-Fi model will likely be here by Christmas. Don’t expect Apple to let what happened to the iPhone happen to the iPad. What happened to the iPhone? Verizon.

Big Red on White

Verizon provided the launching platform for Android’s surge in smartphone market share over the last year. Unmet demand for the Verizon iPhone makes the product almost an open secret, with conventional rumor wisdom pointing to a launch in early 2011.

Announced in June, the white iPhone was almost immediately delayed, proving “more challenging to manufacture than expected.” Speculation has the mix of paint and dyes proving difficult to tint to Steve Jobs’ approval. Don’t expect Apple to begin selling the white iPhone until sufficient numbers can be produced. While Christmas is a good guess, Steve Jobs pulling a white Verizon iPhone from his jeans pocket in January adds extra hype.

Apple Event ’11

To state the obvious, don’t expect anything more than speed bumps for some Macs in 2010. It won’t happen at an Apple event, either, not unless you count fanboys and girls sitting around their Macs hitting refresh on the Apple Store web page early on a Tuesday as an “event.”

January is the logical guess for the next Apple event, but not before Jan. 9. That’s the last day of the International Consumer Electronics Show, which Apple will not attend despite yearly rumors to the contrary.

Sadly, Apple will not be attending Macworld 2011, either, though it is the perfect venue for a diverse keynote featuring Apple computers, software, and consumer electronics. However, the last Apple event was streamed to anyone with a Mac or an iOS device.

Macworld 2011 will be taking place Jan. 26 through 29, and Jan. 27 is the one-year anniversary of the iPad debut. The timing could work out very well for both the convention and Apple, even without direct interaction between the two.

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Bloomberg is now reporting the next generation Apple TV, rumored to be renamed the iTV, will be unveiled at the annually anticipated Apple event next month.

The event, which will supposedly take place on Sept. 7, will likely also launch the new iPod touch, which is rumored to have a Retina Display like the iPhone 4. Cameras and FaceTime support are also very likely. However, it’s the new Apple TV and associated content that is the focus of the latest rumor.

According to Bloomberg, Apple is in advanced talks with ABC, CBS, and FOX, as well as Time Warner, but possibly not NBC, to bring $0.99 rentals of television shows to the iTunes Store, something first unearthed by NewTeeVee a few weeks ago. Television shows would be available for rental within 24 hours of air date, and, similar to movie rentals, consumers would have 48 hours to finish viewing once started.

While a $0.99 rental is significantly less than buying an episode for $1.99 or $2.99, it appears that Apple has now abandoned ambitious plans for a subscription-based model for video at $30 a month.

As for the Apple TV — or possibly the iTV — it’s said to be getting both a price drop to $99 from $229, as well as an unspecified reduction in hard drive size. The emphasis would now be on streaming content, and that could be in keeping with rumors of Apple offering a cloud-based video-on-demand service.

It will be four years ago next month that Steve Jobs declared “Apple is in your living room” with the unveiling of what was then called the iTV. That became the Apple TV when it launched in 2007, followed by the “Take Two” relaunch in 2008.

To date, Apple has never released sales numbers for the Apple TV, and in 2008, Steve Jobs admitted to Fortune that the device, as well as every other set-top box had failed “– everybody’s tried. And everybody’s failed. We failed, so far.” It was at that time Jobs declared the Apple TV to be a “hobby” for Apple.

Unfortunately, that’s not likely to change if this latest iteration of the Apple TV turns out to be real. Simply lowering the price of television rentals and the device itself isn’t enough. The average show of 20 or so episodes would cost $25 a year, assuming no season pass discount. If you watch more than a few shows, cable television is still a better deal.

In order for the Apple TV, or iTV, to succeed it must transition from being an iTunes Store kiosk in the living room to an entertainment portal. That means allowing access to Netflix, Boxee and other video services. It also means a few simple games and apps, possibly using an iPhone or an iPod touch as a controller.

Whether this will be a re-imagining of Apple’s set-top box is clearly up to Apple, but based upon past releases the rumored iTV is looking like another rerun.

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