After the release of the first iPad, Steve Jobs downplayed the idea of a smaller iPad, suggesting that the icons and touch controls would be too small for the device. His words, from an Apple investor call: “It’s meaningless unless your tablet also includes sandpaper, so that the user can sand down their fingers to around one-quarter of their present size.” Jobs was correct about many things in the mobile space, but this isn’t one of them.

I suggest that because I’ve used a 7-inch tablet on a daily basis for the past 14 months. Obviously, it’s not an iPad, but even a small Android tablet proves that a tablet of this size can be used. It works for Android and it will work for a smaller iPad too.

Why? Because an iPad of 7 or 7.75 inches with the same resolution as today’s iPad — 1024 x 768 — won’t shrink the icons or controls all that much. They’ll surely be at least as large as the icons on an iPhone or iPod touch, so if you can use iOS on those devices, it should work for a smaller iPad too. That resolution makes sense for another reason: developers won’t have to change a thing for their applications.

I recently suggested we’d see a smaller iPad for a number of reasons. Smaller devices are more portable, making them easier to carry and use in a wider range of locations. Given the growing number of Kindle Fire and Nook Tablets I’m seeing, clearly there’s a market for smaller slates. Obviously the $199 to $249 price tag of those devices adds to the appeal, but Apple could compete with a smaller iPad that starts at $299 thanks to its diverse ecosystem.

With an expected iPad 3 announcement early next month, I don’t foresee a smaller iPad debut soon. But it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see such a device in the fall, a time when Apple has typically refreshed its iPod lineup. I’ve even suggested the unpopular opinion that an iPad mini will actually take the place of an iPod touch at some point. Regardless of what happens to the iPod touch, it’s time for the iPad mini.

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Although the dock weighs less than the slate, which could result in the device tipping over, it adds tremendous functionality to the Transformer Prime. The $150 price may put some off, but it adds more than just a keyboard and trackpad.

You gain another 6 or more hours of battery life because the dock has its own battery. Between the slate and dock, you could push this package for around 18 hours on a single charge. The dock also adds a full sized USB port, which I’ve used for with an Xbox 360 controller for gaming, and a full-sized SD memory card slot.

New this week to the Prime and any other devices running Android 4.0 is Google’s Chrome beta for Android. After using Chrome for just three minutes, I made it the default browser on my Galaxy Nexus for a number of reasons. It’s at least as fast as the stock browser, if not faster. The user interface is better suited for touch, with easy methods to swipe between open tabs. And it brings a seamless web experience between Chrome on the desktop and Chrome on a mobile device. On my Nexus, for example, I can see a list of the open Chrome tabs from my Mac; one tap and I’m able to view the same web page on my phone. Here’s a short video overview:

Unfortunately, very few devices have Android 4.0, so most can’t yet take advantage of the new Chrome browser. HTC aims to change that situation with software upgrades to its four Sensation models next month. The company announced through its Facebook page that Android 4.0 would roll out to these devices starting in March. Additional handsets will follow this year, but HTC didn’t provide specific dates for these devices, which include the following: HTC Rezound, HTC Vivid, HTC Amaze 4G, HTC EVO 3D, HTC EVO Design 4G, HTC Incredible S, HTC Desire S and HTC Desire HD. No word on the HTC Flyer, a 7-inch tablet that currently runs on Android 3.2.

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The Transformer Prime is unique in that it supports an optional $150 keyboard dock. Besides adding easier input with a full keyboard and trackpad, the dock adds another 8 hours of battery life to the 10-inch tablet, which can already run for up to 12 hours on its own. The dock also adds a full-sized USB port, which has let me use an Xbox 360 controller to play PC-quality games. Here’s what it looks like:

Two other Transformer Prime standouts are the processor and software. This slate is powered by Nvidia’s Tegra 3 chip; a quad-core processor with 12 graphic cores, which helps explain the excellent gaming. The chip is also powering Android 4.0, or the Ice Cream Sandwich version of Android, which is improved slightly over Honeycomb, which ran on tablets last year.

The Samsung Galaxy Tab 7.7 isn’t yet available in the U.S. — an LTE version is coming for Verizon — but I purchased a unit from an importer. I’ve used the original Galaxy Tab daily since December of 2010 and the newest Samsung slate is already proving to be a solid upgrade.

The 7.7-inch display and 7.89mm thickness keeps the device portable for most situations and uses Samsung’s Super AMOLED Plus technology with 1280 x 800 resolution, making for superb visuals and viewing angles.

Unlike the Prime, this tablet uses a 1.4 GHz dual core chip, but I’m already finding it to more than powerful enough for most tasks. The Galaxy Tab 7.7 also runs on Honeycomb, so owners will have to wait for an upgrade to Android 4.0. Since the unit only just arrived, I’ll have more thoughts to follow this week.

Although these two tablets are new, the most popular Android slate appears to be one that doesn’t use Google’s services at all: The Amazon Kindle Fire may be the best selling Android tablet yet. Android tablet sales spiked to an estimated 39 percent of the tablet market last quarter, but by some measures, the Kindle Fire accounts for 40 percent of all Android tablets sold during that time frame. That shouldn’t surprise, given the relatively low $199 price tag and the functionality gained for that cost.

On the software side of things, my favorite third-party Android browser gained some new tricks this week. Dolphin Browser, which supports themes and extensions, added support for both Skitch and Evernote; two popular and useful services. Skitch allows you to draw or annotate on-screen while Evernote is a powerful cross-platform web-clipping and note-taking application. Both the browser and these new supported services are free on Android.

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Apple CEO Tim Cook said during his company’s recent earnings call that iPad sales haven’t really been affected by the Amazon Kindle Fire, which is no doubt contributing heavily to the success of Android tablets. It’s also likely the Barnes & Noble Nook Color and Nook Tablet are included in the Android figures. Instead, Cook admitted the iPad has had some cannibalization effect on sales of Macs, and he predicted that one day, the tablet market will be larger in volume than the PC market.

Compared to Android, Apple still has a dominant position in the tablet market, with a 57.6-percent share compared to Android’s 39.1 percent, according to Strategy Analytics’ most recent numbers. In terms of year-over-year growth, the tablet space has grown by 150 percent between the end of 2010 and 2011. In other words, even if shares were more evenly split, the iPad would still be seeing big gains in unit sales.

The PC market, on the other hand, contracted by around six percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, according to research firm Gartner. That’s despite 20 percent growth by Apple’s own Mac line of computers. Kevin Tofel recently pointed out here on GigaOM that half of computing device sales are now mobile. If the trend of growing tablet and smartphone sales continue, and PC sales continue to decline, we’ll soon be in a position where mobiles are considered a primary device by the majority of users.

Apple will continue to sell iPads. A new refresh expected in the coming months might even help it turn the tide of slipping market share, since while the low-cost Kindle Fire may be a success, other Android tablet makers still seem to be having a hard time putting out a product consumers can get genuinely excited about. Kevin wrote last week about how Android 4.0, while it improves the Android tablet experience, still has a lot of glaring pain points. Also, Android’s tablet-specific app library lags considerably behind Apple’s, and isn’t catching up anywhere near as fast as the market on the smartphone side.

The companies putting out Android tablets that fail to achieve the Kindle Fire’s level of success are the same ones being hurt by the slowing PC market, and they’re the ones that stand to lose the most. Amazon’s Kindle fire has reportedly sold as many as 6 million units through the end of 2011, according to estimates, which would make it the world’s best-selling Android tablet.

Apple continues to appeal to a steadily growing audience of tablet users, but Amazon is answering the call of those who were happier buying bargain-priced netbooks for their basic computing needs, rather than spending more on an iPad. That’s the market PC makers should have been trying to retain with their own tablet efforts, and also the one Amazon has positioned itself best to appeal to.

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Just like the old A500, Acer chose a 1 GHz dual core processor and the Honeycomb version of Android for the new A200. The device is lighter and keeps the many ports from the prior model: Full-sized USB, microSD card slot and micro USB jack to name a few. Gone is the rear camera on the A200, but it does keep a 2 megapixel front-facing sensor for video chatting or images. At this price, the A200 is surely worth a look and will be even more attractive once Acer pushes out the expected software update to Android 4.0; possibly as early as next month.

Motorola Xoom Wi-Fi tablet owners don’t have to wait for a taste of Ice Cream Sandwich, however. The company began to roll out Android 4.0.3 to the Xoom this week and will continue to push the software out in waves. The updated software could help give new life for the first Android tablet, which arrived nearly a year ago to generally mediocre reviews.

How much will Android 4.0 improve the experience on a Xoom tablet? That will vary by each individual’s needs, but overall the device is better with the updated software according to Jason Perlow of ZDNet. He used a enthusiast-created version for two weeks and then got the official upgrade a few days earlier than consumers. There are still some rough edges in the operating system, he says, but most will welcome the improved interface on their tablet.

While I wait for Android 4.0 to appear on my own 10.1-inch tablet, I’m enjoying Android 4.0 on my smartphone and this week found a new app that I consider a “must try”, if not a “must have” for Android devices. Wikipedia finally debuted its Android app this week and while you could use a browser to access the online encyclopedia, I find the free app in the Android Market much better. Simple sharing of Wikipedia entries, support for offline article reading and GPS-powered local Wikipedia results all add to the experience.

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Long time Android user Jason Perlow has run Android 4.0 on his Motorola tablet for the past two weeks and shared his impressions on Tuesday. Although I don’t currently have Android 4.0 on a tablet here, I’ve used Google’s platform for about as long as Perlow, and we both use a Galaxy Nexus phone, which runs the Ice Cream Sandwich software. I’m concerned, because Perlow is already finding usability issues with an Android 4.0 tablet.

“Is it better than Honeycomb? Yes. But it’s not without its own share of problems. It’s going to take some time for apps to catch up to it, and you might want to consider using hardware that is actually up to the task of providing an optimal experience with the new OS.”

Perlow points out some of the same positives I’ve seen when using my new handset: The user interface is more consistent, elegant by comparison to prior versions and more responsive overall. I see that on my Galaxy Nexus on a daily basis. But even if Perlow didn’t point it out to readers directly, it’s clear to me there are still inconsistencies within Android 4.0 on different devices.

For example, at CES last week, a vendor was showing me an Android tablet running on Intel’s new Atom chip. I asked if it was Honeycomb or Ice Cream Sandwich. He said the latter, but then I noticed the Apps button at the top right of the display. On my Android 4.0 phone, that button is on the bottom of the screen, so I questioned the tablet version.

He checked, and sure enough, it was Android 4.0. Why would the same operating system have two different ways to access apps? Notifications on the tablet are on the bottom right, but on the top of the phone. How does this unify the platform?

Perlow’s other main hang-up is the task-switching functionality in Android 4.0. I actually like it on my Galaxy Nexus, but I see his point about the purpose of the feature: It’s not clear to end-users how it works. Honeycomb used the same method, but it’s enhanced in Android 4.0.

Here’s how it works: A dedicated button pulls up small application snapshots of your most recently used apps. To switch, you simply tap on one of the apps. That’s intuitive and effective. But you can also swipe these little app windows off the display. Does that mean those tasks are killed? Not likely, says Perlow, which my own research confirms:

“[T]he “Recent tasks” button is in fact a task switcher that can in fact stop tasks, but it’s not a particularly useful one because even though it is supposed to “nice kill” the processes when you stop them, it doesn’t stop services from re-spawning and it won’t necessarily kill badly-behaving applications, like say, Facebook, which has to be one of the most awfully written pieces of garbage since iTunes. So you have to end up using the real task killer in the Settings menu anyway.”

Swiping the tasks, at least on my Android 4.0 smartphone, simply removes them from the recently used task list. As Perlow says, you have to go to the actual task-killing function in Settings. An alternative I’ve found is a bit of a shortcut: Tapping and holding a recently used app provides an “App Info” option. Click it, and you’re taken to the settings for that particular app so you can kill the task.

I’m not going to pass judgment on Android 4.0 for tablets until I get time to extensively kick the tires. I have an Asus Transformer Prime loaner on the way, so hopefully, I’ll be able to soon validate or refute what Perlow is experiencing. In the meantime, I’ll be looking to manually upgrade a Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1 tablet to Ice Cream Sandwich to speed up my research.

It’s clear to me Google has taken huge steps forward with Android 4.0. I interact with it daily on a phone that sees far more use than my iPhone 4S. That doesn’t imply one is better than the other — we all have different needs — but it appears Google may not be able to rest on its Android 4.0 laurels just yet. Offering a seamless software interface between phones and tablets appears to be working quite well for iOS devices and the iPad in particular: There was never a learning curve for Apple’s tablet for those who had used an iPhone or iPod touch.

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Before explaining why, let me preface my points with an opinion on the current PlayBook tablet. I like the form-factor, as I’m a big proponent of 7-inch slates; I have used one daily since Dec. 2010. And what the PlayBook does, it does very well.

But what it doesn’t do is still an outstanding issue: It lacks a native email client and doesn’t have the breadth of available applications found on competing devices. RIM had planned to address those issues in a software update last year, but it has been pushed out until February of this year. At CES, I finally got a look at the updated software, and the email app impressed me; you can see it in this video below. However, the Android app player was still a no-show in my demo.

Even if RIM addresses these software issues in February, there’s still a problem. Weak tablet sales aren’t going to entice developers to build apps for the PlayBook. Instead, mobile apps are appearing for the platforms that are selling well and offering a broad user base for potential app sales. Think iOS and Android here.

Another challenge? If RIM creates a 10-inch PlayBook it will compete directly against the best-selling tablet: Apple’s iPad.

With the 7-inch size, RIM has a differentiating factor, although it priced the smaller tablet at large tablet prices. By creating a 10-inch slate, RIM will have to have an answer to the same question 10-inch Android tablet makers have struggled with: Why buy this instead of an iPad, which has a stronger ecosystem?

BlackBerry Messenger isn’t the answer, and even if it was, an updated BBM client isn’t even in the BlackBerry PlayBook 2.0 software. Consumers are buying low-cost tablets, so a 10-inch slate won’t likely meet their budgets; especially if it comes with an LTE data plan contract.

IDG yesterday reported that 91 percent of business professionals are using the iPad for work communication. That means, to an extent, the enterprise finds Apple’s tablet safe and secure in the workplace; a perception RIM enjoyed exclusively for years. Simply put: if RIM creates a 10-inch tablet, who comprise the intended device audience and are their needs already being better served by an alternative?

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I wouldn’t call this a new phenomenon: There have been remote access solutions on mobile devices for several years. Think of Citrix’s GoToMyPC  or LogMeIn’s  Ignition. These and similar services allow you to use a mobile devices to interact with the desktop of a Windows PC at home, so you could work on a Word document from an Android tablet, for example.

But virtualization is maturing, as are the mobile chips that power smartphones and tablets. This week at CES, I played a graphic-intensive PC game with stunning visuals and fast action on an Android tablet. But the game itself was actually running on a Windows desktop. Using remote access software from Splashtop on the Asus Transformer Prime tablet, you couldn’t tell. See for yourself in the video demo I captured showing the zero-lag.

Connecting a tablet or phone to remotely use your own computer is just one part of the virtualization story. OnLive has a virtualization service that lets you connect a Windows machine in the cloud. That’s not your PC, but a “PC running on the web,” so to speak. I’ve done this myself with EC2 on Amazon’s Web Services and it only cost me a few dollars a month to run an instance of Windows on a PC I can use, but don’t own: Far cheaper than buying, maintaining and powering a physical computer.

Between this new cloud streaming of computer applications and improved remote access apps, there’s less incentive to buy a new computer. Instead, you can either get more mileage out of an old computer or “rent” one that’s available in the cloud. And either of these can now be accessed by a tablet or smartphone that’s far cheaper than a new computer.

I’m not suggesting the PC industry is dead, but it is bleeding: Sales have started stagnating, and last year smartphones outsold computers, a trend that’s likely to continue, if not accelerate.

In this light, it makes sense that Intel is trying to push some smartphone activities to its new Ultrabooks. As PCs go from physical to virtual over time, consumers will have less reason to buy Intel-powered laptops and desktops, provided they have the connectivity needed to remotely access a PC from a tablet or handset.

Image credit: OnLive

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During a stop at Nvidia’s CES booth, I got a chance to see games such as Skyrim and Shadowrun on big screens, along with a new 7-inch Tegra 3 Android tablet from ZTE. All were impressive as you can see in this short video. Most impressive was that Skyrim was actually running on a Windows desktop and being remotely rendered on the Transformer Prime via Splashtop’s software!

The first games were played on the Asus Transformer Prime, the first quad-core Android 4.0 tablet. With the optional keyboard dock — which has a battery inside of it — the whole set up can run for more than 20 hours. And yet, the device can push console-quality graphics on its own screen, an HDTV, or both. I was very impressed, even though I didn’t kill the dragon in Skyrim; clearly it’s not the silicon that’s the problem.

ZTE’s 7-inch Android 4.0 slate was also running a Tegra 3 chip and showed similar performance in a smaller package. I haven’t heard about any pricing or availability for this slate, so stay tuned.

And we’ll be waiting a few months to see products with Nvidia’s DirectTouch solution on Android devices. The company can remove the touch controllers from devices and have the Tegra 3 GPU interpret touches. The result: up to three times better touch performance, which could help remove Android’s laggy feel.

Although not in the video, I spoke at length with Nvidia about its opportunity with Windows 8. And why not? The market is wide open now for all chips that use the ARM architecture. From what I saw today, Windows on ARM won’t necessarily mean a poor experience.

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1. The App Store is here to stay

The iTunes App Store and the Mac App Store are a way of life now. As much as people might object to app sandboxing and other limitations of the Mac App Store, it’s not going anywhere in 2012. Adoption will only increase as publishers concede that the App Store is where the customers are. Oh, and managing volume purchases will still be awful a year from now, too.

2. Thunderbolt will still be confusing

Without a large number of accessories that use Thunderbolt, expect continued complaints that Apple hasn’t adopted USB 3.0. That might change in 2013, but 2012 will be the year that Apple continues to push Thunderbolt while everyone else wonders why.

3. iPad will soon revolutionize education

Soon. Very soon. But not this year. Sure, there might be announcements coming of e-textbook, rentals, or other features that will soon revolutionize the classroom, but Apple announcing is different from the market adopting. Always “soon.”

4. Full Screen will still be awkward

It’s supposed to be the future, but multiple displays with Full Screen apps doesn’t work right. And it still won’t later this year. This is a feature that will stick around for a while but will not get the attention to make it work well enough for normal people to use regularly.

5. Lion Server still won’t be a “real” server

Oh sure, it’s good for Directory Services, file sharing and a few other tasks, but it’s not a “real” server that has “real” hardware to run on. This won’t change one bit during 2012. “Real” sysadmins will use “real” servers and some people will still complain that Lion Server isn’t Red Hat Enterprise Linux (or whatever distro you prefer) that can run on rack-mount hardware. I think it’s useful in many situations, but I didn’t try to build a computing infrastructure around Mac OS X Server in any year and I sure won’t be doing it in 2012.

6. Text Editors will still be boring

Yes, text editors are extremely useful and critical to a large number of creative professionals for coding and designing web pages. They are also occasionally useful for editing text. But text editors are tools and rather boring ones at that. Despite the fancy names and incremented version numbers coming in 2012, don’t be fooled. Rather than trust the hype, find something that works and learn how to use it.

7. Printers will still suck, and be expensive

Have you tried buying a printer in the last couple of years? Ink cartridges that cost more than the printer? That get jammed with paper, or clogged with ink? That are impossible to configure correctly? You’d think someone would have figured this out by now. Maybe in the future, they will. But not in 2012.

8. Duplicate contacts

It’s awesome having all your contacts everywhere, synced with all your devices, the cloud and so on. It’s so good, maybe having 5 copies of every contact will be even better! As it turns out, having only one copy would be just awesome, thank you very much. Syncing contacts has been a problem for the last 20 years, why would anything change in 2012?

9. Congress will still try to kill the Internet

There was a pretty good backlash against SOPA and Protect IP, but there will just be new bills with new acronyms to try to destroy the Internet in 2012.

10. The MacBook Air is what you get, and you’ll like it

The Air is still the “future of notebooks” for Apple. Optical drives are dying out (in large part due to the online App Store). Get used to SSDs, longer battery life, and lighter weight. Hmm, maybe you will like this one.

11. iPhone will still generate boatloads of profits

Sure Android is surging or whatever, but no one will make any money off it, regardless of what Google executives say. Apple will continue to reap a generous share of the profits in the mobile industry.

12. We’ll still be waiting for a really good Android tablet

Still waiting.

What else are you expecting not to change this year?

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