Optimism 2008: Runner-up and Notable Mentions

Runner-up — Rabble

What i’m excited about for 2008.

That’s a difficult question, i know what i’m excited about right now. It’s that cloud computing is becoming a reality. More specifically i’m really impressed and excited by the light weight key pair databases like CouchDB. Amazon’s SimpleDB is interesting from an acceptance of the idea perspective, but not very interesting technically. There are whole classes of applications which are hard using a relational database which will be easy to build and scale using key / pair style db’s like couchdb and simpledb. What makes delicious, twitter, facebook, and flickr hard applications to build on the backend are in large part due to a poor match of database storage engines. With that fixed, and it seems like we’re finally getting around to fixing it, we’ll be able to push forward in building social apps which can scale while doing interesting things. Something which hard is going to become easy in 2008.

Let’s see what else? The mobile handset world is going to be interesting. Apple will release an SDK which, if they do it the right way, will create a fountain of new applications. Android will come along and let that creativity of building apps spread to more devices, but it won’t be as slick. Apple’s one device, one screen size, one interface, system will be a massive win in terms of building interesting applications. The iPhone is the Mac of phones, but it remains to be seen if Android becomes linux (hackers doing cool stuff but not much end user acceptance), Windows widespread but clunky because of the hundreds of devices which need to be supported, or OS2 cool, but simply ignored out of existence.

I’m excited about computing and the net reaching out in to non-computer devices. The Dash Navigator is one example, Chumby and Kindle are others, there are lots. So far they’ve had a hard time getting built and released. Hopefully 2008 will be the year that the net stops being about laptops, desktops, and servers. The iphone is a bit along that path, but there’s so much more. Perhaps it’s too optimistic for 2008, building physical things takes much longer lead time. Eventually the device makers will learn what the desktop application makers have learned. That having something which is tied to the net and you can push updates on to will mean you can be much more agile.

The last thing i’m excited about is maps. This isn’t new, it’s been going on for a while, but there are neat things happening with maps, geo, and location based services. I hope there is enough space for people to build something which is social and useful rather than just a marketers dream (find the nearest starbucks).

Those are my hopes for 2008 in terms of technology and the tech industry.

Honorable Mentions

Casey Winans

In 2008, Google will usurp the traditional telecom companies by winning the 700MHz spectrum auction. They will partner with companies like Sprint and Clearwire to realize their new national wireless network. A plethora of new companies will be born that purchase wholesale access to this new network. Vonage will be relegated to the pages of history as Google’s Grandcentral ambitions are realized. Millions of people will flock to their service to obtain one phone number to rule them all. Several phone manufactures will bring Android-based handsets to market that work seamlessly with Grandcentral. I’ll be able to use my new mobile device to talk whenever I want without fear of going over my minutes or over my monthly allotment of data. I’ll finally be able to use my device to connect my laptop anywhere I go and download movies from Amazon Unbox without going bankrupt. My kids will laugh at me and call me a dinosaur at the mere mention of a voice only network and per minute usage fees.

Lou Covey

What I’m optimistic about is my 18-year-old son going to college to study “music technology” as a major. As much as he loves playing the guitar he realizes that making a living as a musician is a real crap shoot, but the technology that exists today and that is coming on line in the next couple of years makes it possible for him to make a good living doing what he loves: making music. The internet and A/V recording capabilities make it possible for a whole new generation of artists to thrive in society without the control of major entertainment corporations. Regardless of what we may think of the success of Radiohead’s decision to record and release a new album outside of the the recording industry, it was an earthshaking decision. It can be done.

I think the inherent cynicism of the buying public is the best hope for the future of technology, and that hope will begin to be realized in 2008. The general public has become much more tech savvy in the past decade which is rapidly closing the market canyon between early and late adopters. That means they can look not only beyond the hype attached to new tech (and I include social media) and co-opt it for their own needs and purposes. The democratization of technology is means for real optimism.

Raghu Sankaran

2008 will be the year where it all comes together. Data will truly be freed and move online and any authorized app will be able to access my data from anywhere. All the disparate pieces will unite and google will dominate.

My Google GrandCentral number will be my single point of contact. I will check my GrandCentral messages on my EeePC (that would have hit the $300 price point) with my morning coffee. I expect a tight integration between GrandCentral number, my gmail, gchat and SMS.

Then, I work from my home office (connected to a fiber line)/starbucks and use google apps (business) to tie my work/small business communication/collaboration. My non-media data and some media data will reside online on google. I expect a robust backup solution from google that is similar to TimeMachine

I return home from work to watch HDTV connected one set-top box that is integrated with netflix, joost and maybe iTunes itself. I hope to watch Indian channels online instead of signing a 1 year contract with Dish.

Mac tablet, iPhone SDK, EeePC, Android, Grand Central, Unified solution for phone number/email/contact list/calendar/blog/social networking/professional networking, HDTV content delivered on demand, one set-top box to rule them all, LCD backlit cheaper HDTVs, high speed fiber connections, 30 inch LCD monitor for $400 and Arrested Development back on TV… Of course, I am optimistic about 2008.

Geoff Daily

I’m optimistic more people will be online than ever.

I’m optimistic that the speeds at which people connect online will be faster and cheaper than they are today.

I’m optimistic in people discovering new ways by which their lives can be improved through the use of broadband and broadband applications.

I’m optimistic that new uses of broadband will continue to spring up and existing applications will continue to be refined.

I’m optimistic the Internet will take great strides from being a nice-to-have to a must-have in improving the quality of our day-to-day lives.

I’m optimistic that we will finally begin to have a constructive dialogue at federal, state, and local levels about the need for more broadband, how to get it, how to encourage its use, and how to regulate it without hindering it.

I’m optimistic in my belief that 2008 will be the year that the value of fiber and the big broadband capacity it delivers to the home will finally begin to differentiate itself over copper access technologies. And I’m optimistic that we’ll have more entities deploying fiber than ever.

I’m optimistic applications developers and hardware manufacturers will begin to see the market potential to be found in the millions of people not on the cutting edge of technology and, in turn, will begin developing more ways for non-technical users to interface with and benefit from the Internet.

I’m optimistic about the opportunities that exist when applications developers, service providers, and network operators work together rather than fight against each other, and that this will be the year we realize what’s possible through the development and deployment of in-network applications.

And I’m optimistic that by this time next year everyone will have a fuller understanding of the scope that the Internet revolution entails and in the opportunities broadband presents to re-imagine nearly every facet of society as we strive more boldly into the 21st century.

Adam H. Birnbaum

I’m optimistic the term ’social media’ will cease being the focal point of business ideas. Social relationships have been around before humans existed; A few years before MySpace became popular. It’s an exciting time in technology where the analysis of networks are measureable but it’s completely overboard and showing up everywhere.

It’s impossible to read an article/review of a new business idea/website without reading about its social features. Social Advertising/Bookmarking/Shopping/Networking, Wikis, Blogs, Presence, Virtual Worlds, Aggregation, Photo/Video sharing, Live/Pod Cast, User Generated Content and the list continues. Please, make it stop…I feel like this can be a web 2.0 version of Billy Joel’s ‘We Didn’t Start the Fire’.

I’m all about seeing these tools used where it makes sense but it’s gone berserk. 2007 was another year where companies were trying to ‘be’ Enterprise 2.0 ready and websites were trying to ‘be’ Web 2.0 enabled. Being in the middle of it, I really feel that the buzz needs to fizzle and it can’t happen fast enough. It’s spreading to places that it doesn’t belong and I really hope the insanity fades.

I’m looking forward to 2008 where business ideas are ideas. Not something that takes an old idea, adds a community slant to it and re-brands it as new. Communities exist with or without tools to ‘make connections’. While I still can’t order pizza to my house via sms, I’m able to have a website decide what kind of pizza I want, send a twit so everyone in the world knows what I’m ordering, get instant feedback to see if the toppings are what the ‘crowd’ agrees with and record a video of the delivery person at my door. The point is, I’d much rather have the service than all the social benefits. Granted this example is pretty dumb…but as the ‘Wisdom of Crowds’ tells us…so are individuals.

I’m sure on January 1, I’ll read an article that includes something I’ve decried above. It’s certainly wishful thinking that I won’t have to deal with this for another year of insanity but I’m positive there are others that feel this way. Let’s unite! It can be a web 2.0 website that has a community to discuss New Year’s resolutions. Oh wait…that exists.

I wish everyone a happy socially enabled New Year.

Derek O.

I am excited to see how technology companies will integrate the internet and my television in 2008. I feel like companies tested the waters in 2007 with the Apple TV, Vudu and other expensive lackluster set-top boxes, as well as internet video services like Hulu, legal Bittorrent, iTunes movies, and other horrible DRM encrusted, expensive, or ad-supported content. In 2008 I’m ready to see some real innovation. Until internet services let me rent HD video content online at a competitive price, then they can’t compete with Netflix or my local video store. One reason why there has yet to be a good video service is bandwidth. But in 2008, homes should start getting much faster more robust bandwidth (if Om’s predictions are right). I’m tired of waiting Verizion’s FIOS to spread to my town. Hopefully it will be here in 2008. To me, IPTV seems like it has as much potential as the internet has. In 2008, I’m ready to see TV 2.0. This industry has yet to have a defining device or service that makes people realize “Hey, this is the future of the internet and TV.” This is what the iPod did for MP3 players. I’m excited to see if Apple can do the same thing in 2008 or if it will be another company. I’m rooting for Apple; I think that the Apple TV could be revolutionary with a makeover. In 2008 I am optimistic and excited to see traditionally internet content on my TV, and traditionally TV content on my computer.