If the Pre were released in a vacuum, I think it would do well – perhaps not as well as the iPhone, but certainly as well or better than the G1. And I do think Palm will have that vacuum for a couple of months, since the release is out of cycle with a lot of their competitors phones. But come July, Palm is going to face some serious competition again from whatever Apple’s got cooking, and then a month later with the next Blackberry device, and a month after that not one but probably several Android devices. And unless Palm has gotten a lot of momentum in that two month space, it will likely encounter too much resistance to become the breakout hit that Palm needs it to be for the company to survive.

I have high hopes for Palm, and wish them luck. I’m a big fan and have been for many years. But I think the Palm Pre comes too late for them. Not too little, just too late.

Where’s the darn thing already and how much is it going to cost?
Unless Palm offers the Pre’ as a GSM world phone (and really soon) I don’t see how they can compete with the iPhone and Blackberry. The Pre’ had better be everything they claim and far far more.

“Fool contributor Tim Beyers had stock and options positions in Apple and…in Nokia at the time of publication.”

So, I’m sure he’s worried about the performance of these holdings should Palm grab significant market share. Or, he’s shorted Palm and is hoping to influence the market. Either way, he’s far from an unbiased party.

I am “up” on the latest and greatest. And as I mentioned in a prior comment on a separate Pre post, I am so resentful of Palm for its past indiscretions that if my choice of phones was limited to a Pre or a 5 year old Razr, I would choose the Razr. I don’t believe I am alone in my negative attitude toward Palm.

Through mismanagement and broken promises they took a once cutting edge technology company and alienated the very people that once shouted their virtues to the masses. I won’t shout for them again. Given the competiton with Apple, RIM and Nokia, they would be a distant 4th in my consideration for a new handset.

Instead of once bitten twice shy, it is more like bitten 10 times – no more.

I bet that the Motley Fool article is more accurate then you want to believe.

1) Palm is seen as a dead or dying company by most of the public, regardless of what tech pundits may say about the Pre or Palm.

2) As another article on GigaOM points out: For Some App Developers Palm & Nokia Are No-Gos. I think Some could easily be Most in this case.

http://gigaom.com/2009/04/08/for-some-app-developers-palm-nokia-are-no-gos/

3) Many, or most, Mac users harbor significant resentment toward Palm for treating them like second-class citizens for years. While by no means a majority of potential customers, they are a significant portion of likely (or in this case, unlikely) customers, and they aren’t going to buy anything Palm, especially given the alternatives.