Can MIDs Survive Against the Smartphone?
Mobile Internet Devices are a hot topic today, but not in the way that MID makers would hope. It all started with Ars Technica explaining that these handheld computers are hard to find and buy. No news flash there since you can’t walk into an electronics retailer and walk out with a MID. Even online ordering is limited to a handful of places.
Steve examines this situation over at UMPC Portal and spotlights the fact that MIDs are a niche product. As such, retailers aren’t buying stock to sell. He’s right on that part, but he didn’t quite get into why that is.
Granted, he rightly says:
“[U]ntil better products reach the market with better operating systems and some marketing support from Intel, I don’t think anyone is going to be throwing thousands of dollars at marketing themselves and buying large amounts of stock.”
But that’s not the whole problem, so I’ll point out the elephant in the room: smartphones of today — and tomorrow — are minimizing the demand for a handheld device with a desktop operating system. Yes, there will always be some people who want a fully-featured, pocketable computer. I’m not suggesting that there’s anything wrong with wanting that.
I am suggesting that the vast number of consumers don’t want nor need that. They’re just now starting to jump onto the smartphone platform at a time where they can do nearly everything they need to on the go. Remember, I’m not talking about consumers that make a living by creating web content or managing IT systems — I’m talking about folks that need to check email, search the web, update social networks and enjoy some light media content. The fact that today’s smartphones can handle all of that and, depending on the platform, have tens of thousands of applications for specialized purposes is helping to keep MIDs out of the mainstream.
Another related issue is that it’s hard for developers to focus on a niche product like MIDs when tens of millions of smartphones are sold every year. What’s the incentive for a developer to throw resources at a device that might only sell 10,000 units, for example? Wouldn’t those resources be better used on developing for a major platform?
It’s also not helping MIDs that netbooks have come from nowhere in 2007. If a small, cheap laptop with a usable keyboard hadn’t arrived on the scene, MIDs might have had a better chance at going mainstream. They would fit the need in between a limited-use smartphone and a full-featured notebook. But netbooks are clearly filling that need nicely, and doing so at a relatively low price.
I’m not predicting the death of the MID here — I’m pointing out why there isn’t much life in the MID market. Again, there are plenty of people that want or even need a pocketable PC. But some would argue that today’s smartphones go a long way towards meeting that need. And as Flash, HTML5 and other maturing technologies come to the smartphone platform, they’ll go even farther towards meeting the need once envisioned for Mobile Internet Devices.
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Kevin,
You are right mostly in my opinion but i would still like to argue about two things.
Although consumers don’t need a full OS in a <5" device, and will do well with a full web OS (pre or chrome), Smartphones still lack today some features that are important to consumers – e.g. lack of a video over IP. I really want a smartphone with full Skype capabilities!
Then the second issue is that MIDs will bring the smartphones exactly there. Moorestown is a great platform for future smartphones – its a matter of adding the platform for the cells or the cell functionality to the MIDs. Same same …
Which means that MIDs are just vapor market for hardware that should be customized for cell enabled devices. And it should happen within a year or two.
Tal
Tal, I can’t argue with either of your points as they’re both good ones. No question that smartphones are still lacking in features that a PC can provide. I’m not sure that video over IP is wanted by mainstream consumers just yet, but it’s as good an example as any. Bear in mind that it’s a safe bet this is right around the corner for smartphones — it’s not so much the platform holding that feature back, it’s more of the network and carriers, at least here in the U.S.
I agree that MIDs will bring the smartphone there, but then what do we call them? ;) Seriously, the MID platform now seems like a holding pattern and test ground for a future smartphone device, no?
Exactly!
Better here than on twitter. This needs more than 140 chars!
It sounds like you are talking about UMPCs there! MIDs arent handheld devices with desktop operating systems by most peoples definition.
The other point is that Intels next-gen mids will have voice and a tailored OS.
For me, MID is a description of exactly what we are seeing with high end smartphones and the planned moves by Intel. Bigger screens, better operating systems, faster procesors, full internet experience. Isnt that what we all wanted a MID to be?
What would be fair to say is that Intels idea of having successful devices based on the Menlow platform has largely failed. At least we think it has so far right? IDF is in 6 weeks so things could change!
You’re hitting another part of the overall problem, Steve — identity of the product. The name Mobile Internet Device simply makes no sense on it’s own. By definition, I’d say every modern smartphone is a MID (and then some!) and was one before the term MID ever arrived. ;)
You’re right that I could be talking about UMPCs, but when we see an enthusiast buy an Intel Atom MID, what do we commonly see them do: try to install XP or another desktop OS on the device. So it’s not just me that’s confusing UMPCs with MIDs, it’s also the folks that are buying them. As I said in the post — that’s all well and good if people want a pocketable PC, in i.e.; Windows-based. I’m not judging them nor am I saying they’re wrong to buy such a device if it meets their needs. That’s what they should buy, but it’s not what mainstream consumers want or need, hence the niche.
I agree that we could see some interesting technology out of IDF. But let’s just add voice, call them smartphones and kill the contrived name of MID. It appears that the term was simply created to hold a place until Intel could re-enter the smartphone market.
This is why if Apple introduces the much-rumored Tablet it will sell millions of them. They will not get into debating whether they are UMPCs, or MIDs, or whatever. It will be iProduct and that’s what it will be called, marketed as, and sold as. Don’t confuse the customers, something the company that controls all aspects of their products can do.
in my opinion the term “smarphone” does not fit well anymore as the lot of highend devices with phone capabilities in fact are powerfull pdas by character (with a broad choice of connectivity options)and not simply smartphones. thus clearly fullfilling the definition of a MID. whereas smartphones as such only have very limited, if at all, computing abilities (having a browser and a mediaplayer integrated i do not count as computing ability in this case because no other programs can be implented/loaded by a standard user)
James – 9″ tablet will get Apple nowhere.
Kevin is on the point with his clarification … its all about smartphones getting the power that they need from MID like platforms.
If Apple want to play there they need a more powerful web OS or alternatively their desktop OS running on a slightly bigger iPhone size and much more powerful device.
MID’s are really being hunted down, no doubt about that.
I dig my N810, really! But I wouldn’t dream of buying one today.
I can almost get a netbook and a Nokia N79 today, for the price of a N810 when I bought it one and a half year ago..
That’s crazy. Full keyboard, huge screen and a nice phone on top of that.
When it comes to my N79, it does alot of what I want to do online. RSS, mail, facebook, crossclient IM and so forth. And it’s not even close to being the fanciest phone out there.
The MID is a very cool kinda device, but I think it’s off to death by convergence, unless the price drops alot.
I know that the N810 isn’t a MID with a fully fledge OS like WinXp. Nonetheless, I think the point is valid.
The netbooks are simply so cheap, that even I, a N810-lover, wouldn’t catch the bait today.
Alot has truely happened the last couple of years.
- MOC
Smartphone, MID, UMPC, netbook? I think both consumers and retailers are confused as to which is which, and what they can/cannot do.
I’m just now incorporating my Samsung Q1 SSD (first generation) into my workflow, and I’m still getting questions and compliments about it. People are amazed at the touchscreen, handwriting capability (e.g., PenOffice), full Internet browser access, eReader, and editing/highlighting features (e.g., PDF Annotator). They said they had no idea anything like it existed.
Also, several of my interested colleagues stated that they needed a keyboard at all times in order to be functional, but I showed them that, with a little practice, you don’t need it while on-the-go. I also have pointed out that touchscreens are everywhere in everyday life (go to any bar or checkout that has an e-signature credit card reader), we just don’t notice them.
So, with regard to professionals, I think it’s a matter of education as to what is possible from a technology standpoint.
Separately, I agree that many consumers are happy with a smartphone for email, Internet access, and social networking. However, I believe those needs will evolve in time, like mine did. (Take a look at the evolution of the netbook – screen size and hard disk space get bigger).
I admit that I’m not a typical consumer, but I remember when I was frustrated by the limitations of the Palm IIIe and the Sony Clie NX70. I bought a portable keyboard and tried to take notes on the PDA – it just didn’t work. I also wanted to have the ability to scribble something without having to use a keyboard.
I still have similar complaints with regard to my Blackberry. I get disgusted when I can’t access certain Internet sites (my Blackberry states that it is “too large”) or squinting to read documents on a tiny screen. I also knew that a Palm Treo or iPhone wouldn’t cut it for me, and I didn’t purchase either.
However, graduating to a Tablet PC was not an answer either. It was relatively heavy to carry, difficult to whip out to surf the Internet and battery life was relatively poor.
The UMPC (Samsung Q1 SSD) hit the sweet spot for me as an in-house attorney. It has taken me awhile to read and digest all the wonderful information on jkontherun and elsewhere, but I’m happy that I did. The general public may be either unaware or unwilling to embrace alternatives to the smartphone and netbook.
I think if you consider the iPod Touch an MID – which isn’t that much of a stretch – then the conversation changes dramatically.
I do (and always did) consider the iPod Touch a “MID.” How does it change the conversation in your view?
Whats in a name, people are not confused. All that concerns the buyer is: does it do what they want, is the form factor right for them, and the price. These devices are highly disposable, and have a very short useful/ expectation life span – see the mobile phone market, with people seeking 12mth/18mth upgrades.
I think the real reason why you are not seek these devices in the market place in any great numbers is down to the manufacturers, and the economic downturn.
Hi guys,
I agree wholeheartedly with Kevin – with the way smartphones are going, the need for MIDs (which are just like smartphones except bigger and without cellular voice-calling inthe conventional sense ) is shrinking fast. Also, MIDs still cost a lot, which almost ensures that it remains as a niche product (have they learnt nothing from the mistakes made by the UMPC?)
I do love my ipod touch, but I probably wouldn’t consider it as a MID unless it had 3G Internet, like the iPhone. In closing, smartphones have all the advantages that a MID might provide (cellular mobile internet, a ‘good enough’ web experience and flexibility to perform desktop like tasks like word processing), but in a smaller, more familiar package to MIDs.
MIDs are products looking for viable markets instead of responding to genuine consumer needs. Smartphones and netbooks will quickly squeeze MIDs out of existence.
Dont forget the choice of cloud computing and remote desktop on your smartphone. A bluetooth keyboard and mouse also helps matters.
I have the 5`HTC Advantage, 3.6`Touch Pro2 and Iphone 3G and value/use them over my OQO 02 and Everun Raon Digital for their always on and instant on feature and lack of heat in my pocket!
They also have voice and a camera. The n900 device whose images were leaked yesterday looks like an interesting hybrid.
The difference is not in the device in the user experience. UMPCs are for consumers who want a desktop experience with minimal compromise, maximum portability, and all-day power. Nokia got the ball rolling with the ITs, and SSD-based systems like those by Samsung Q1 Viliv hae taken it the next step, but they are and always be boutique devices, for power users and niche applications.
The next-generation of OSes for these form-factors can release these systems from *having* to run XP (the de-facto standard that allows desktop-like performance).
Maemo, Linux derivatives and Android are promising candidates that can do more than the iPhone OS with 5-7″ of screen estate and a keyboard, and ease consumer complications (still a big if w/o the backing of an Intel). These next few years may prove to be the final opportunity for a larger UMPC market share. The question, as Kevin asks, is how many want to do more than what they can do on the iPhone?