During the last downturn the company I worked for struggled, but managed to keep its head above water thanks to a business model that was based on real world value (despite still being a web-based company).

Of course the downside of that sort of thing is that it can be less sexy and have less chance of making one a multi-billionaire than jumping onboard the latest bandwagon. But then one has to balance that against the risks.

I’d further advise everyone nowadays to keep maintain a ‘layoff emergency kit,’ analogous to an earthquake kit, in case of unforeseen joblessness. Spend four hours a month updating your resume, brushing up your online portfolio, attending free conferences in your city where you can do some networking, etc. When you see recruiters posting jobs in a field similar to yours, note their name & email for future reference. Think of it as an ongoing, low level job search, where you do everything but actually send out your resume (unless you actually are looking for a job, like Dave C.).

If you do suddenly find yourself with a lot of time on your hands, that’s the time to get busy. I’m actually surprised by the number of otherwise incredibly capable people who don’t know the first thing about the dynamics of looking for a job in the networked world- mainly because they’ve been heads down in a company for the past five years and it’s been the furthest thing from their mind. I recently posted a list of tips for the recently jobless which cover seemingly obvious steps like setting up RSS feeds for job boards.

Expansions and contractions in the business cycle are inevitable, because thought leaders move and followers follow. One or two high profile collapses will make the followers nervous and they’ll start to pull their support from ventures that are underperforming (most of them) and you’ll see a ripple effect of collapses. Is that a bust, or is it the natural weeding of companies that shouldn’t have survived in the first place? Easy to say the latter until you’re the one getting your walking papers.

I’m a bit of an idealist. In the dot com boom 1.0, I was in the dot com. When it went bust, I stayed in the dot com by ganging up with a few fellas to do web consulting. It was rough. I think my monthly allowance was like $300 a month! Luckily, my salary is a little more decent now.

However with web 2.0 emerging, jobs for interactive people or new media junkies are a plenty and I could make earning 10X more than I do now. The smart thing to do is get a job, ride the wave, earn the bucks, network with a ton more of people, save up money, wait for the hype to die, go back to my own business? ;)

That is some prime data on trends and patterns that no one else has except MySpace right now.