The process steam market seems to offer some solutions; competing directly with natural gas and high efficiency of the steam-thermal process means a better business case.

Let’s take the standard 5 MW electric powerplant demonstration model that Ausra recently built. It cost 15 million USD or 3000 USD/kWe. It’s 25 MW thermal, so only 20% thermal to electric efficiency. With process steam applications, the efficiency would be close to 100%. Now, the cost of the power block is avoided which is high at small sizes like this, further lowering the cost.

This puts the cost per thermal output probably around 500 USD/kW. In a good location like much of the southwest, 20% capacity factor is reasonable. This means under 2.5 cents/kWh thermal levelised cost.

Right now, untaxed natural gas trades absurdly cheap, around 1-2 cents/kWh thermal. But then again, natural gas prices can’t be sustained this low, it’s just too attractive to use when it’s this cheap. Once economies recover a bit, the price should trend upward, and mass manufacturing standardized small process steam units should lower the cost.

It’s risky, but probably the least risk path for Ausra to take right now.