This is Metcalfe’s long-term prediction. Maybe within our lifetime. To act like his prediction has come true today, or in the near future, is an incorrect extrapolation of his idea.

I agree with you, I think efficiency is more appropriate right now while we as a culture work a number of tracks in parallel, the “Enernet” being one of those parallel tracks. I believe “efficiency” is a more useful concept than “conservation.” “Conservation” has a shade of meaning that implies doing without, whereas “efficiency” means doing more with less.

But to put timelines in perspective, if you take a look at the payback for commercial and/or residential solar power, or commercial and/or residential energy retrofits for buildings and houses, the pay back is generally in the 10-15 year time frame. When Metcalfe talks “decades”, he’s talking at least 20 years, if not 30, 40 or longer. So efficiency has a shorter payback of at least 1/2 to 1/4 of the time Metcalfe is talking about. And, it’s much easier to implement.

We can add solar and do energy efficiency retrofits today. Right now. With existing technology, infrastructure, and companies.

As a futurist’s goal setting statement, I think Metcalfe’s idea is useful in that we create the future we envision.

Joel Greenberg
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