Comments on: Better Place Exec: Beware the Lure of Electric Car Early Adopters

By: evchels

evchels — Tue, 11 May 2010 00:18:06 +0000

It's way too soon to start declaring winners and losers among the flavors of EV propulsion (BEV/PHEV/EREV)- especially since most of the public has never seen any of them in the flesh. The only relevant question is whether or not there's enough of a market for a given vehicle to make a business out of it.

That said, there are some mistaken assumptions represented here- the main one being that economics are the only factor (or even the primary one) among consumers. Early adopters can be written off (to the detriment of any company that does it), but even among the "masses", vehicles are an emotional purchase as much as an intellectual one. Some of that is cause-related, some performance, brand or aesthetic-oriented, but it exists in most purchases to some degree. No one can argue that buying a Yukon is the most economical way to own a truck, and it's not exactly the early adopter market stepping up for them.

We can't ignore the cost issues, and we're pushing to improve them in various ways, including new purchase/lease models. But it's only one of a portfolio of issues, and won't be the one that will make or break these programs.

By: How to Get First in Line for Nissan’s Electric LEAF

How to Get First in Line for Nissan’s Electric LEAF — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 17:02:31 +0000

[...] from the University of California, Berkeley’s Transportation Sustainability Research Center commented earlier this month on a panel about vehicle-to-grid technology hosted by Agrion, a “typical consumer doesn’t know [...]

By: John

John — Sun, 11 Apr 2010 14:32:11 +0000

Interesting comparison to the iphone, and frankly a perfect example of why PBP won't work. As successful as the iphone has been it would have sold far more if it were not network specific, and there have been many complaints of the limitations of the ATT service. The same way Windows has a much larger footprint than Apple. Open architecture and lower prices will drive EV acceptance, not proprietary charging services.

By: Carlo Ombello

Carlo Ombello — Sun, 11 Apr 2010 03:23:28 +0000

I believe we tend to overthink the issues BEVs will be facing over this decade. We’re not talking about a new technology slowly making its way into an established market. EVs are going to be as disruptive to the car industry as the mobile phones and the internet to communication. There’s a lot of research being pursued everywhere to increase their range. Once we get a decent 200-300 miles range (sooner than we think!) there will be little doubt left about them. The looming oil crunch (forget peak oil, it’s just about not enough supply to ever growing post-recession demand) will pave a rather easy way for EVs in the market. They will eat in their share as the iPhone has done with smartphones.

I am sure that by 2020 the World is going to look a lot different. In better.

My ideas on the matter in this article:

http://www.triplepundit.com/2010/03/geneva-motor-show/

By: John

John — Sat, 10 Apr 2010 01:17:43 +0000

Certainly improved public transportation has it's place, but that takes investment in infrastructure and time to implement. It will also do nothing for the millions who don't live in a large city. BEV as a second car or ICE rentals for longer trips are available now. Another concept is rentable generator trailers for your EV to turn it into a series hybrid when needed. There are a number of different ways that BEV's can work right now for many people.

By: Josie Garthwaite

Josie Garthwaite — Fri, 09 Apr 2010 20:45:08 +0000

Or how 'bout improving public transit options so we can get around without a personal vehicle. Scandalous thought, I know.

By: Josie Garthwaite

Josie Garthwaite — Fri, 09 Apr 2010 20:42:44 +0000

Thanks for explaining beyond the short answer. :)

True, most if not all of the BEVs coming out in the next few years will be priced out of reach for most car buyers. And I think a lot of work remains to be done to make them practical for a large portion of the market (e.g. urban apartment dwellers like myself — see my post on 10 Signs Your Next Car Won’t Be Electric: http://earth2tech.com/2009/12/21/10-signs-your-next-car-wont-be-electric). But that, to me, doesn’t mean the tech should be dropped altogether in favor of PHEVs. Battery costs will most likely come down — it’s a question of how much and how soon.

By: John

John — Fri, 09 Apr 2010 17:58:42 +0000

Actually there are a number of other solutions for occasional long trips for many of us. Most families have more than one vehicle, no reason one of them can't be a full BEV. Renting an ICE vehicle once in a while is also a possibility. I agree that for many people who think they "need" 200 mile or more of range than hybrids make sense. However there are millions of us right now who can make good use of pure BEV's in the 100 mile range. Nissan is addressing those potential customers with their Leaf, which does not subscribe to the PBP model.

By: Jim

Jim — Fri, 09 Apr 2010 14:50:11 +0000

Josie,

You asked: "Do you think BEVs should be dropped altogether in favor of PHEVs?"

Short answer: Yes.

The economics of BEVs don't make sense given that people want vehicles that can (occasionally, at least) make long trips. If every two weeks you need to drive 200 miles in one day, is it better to add $2000 for a small internal combustion engine or $20,000 for a larger battery pack?

There are a LOT of people that seem to favor BEVs because they are a more elegant solution, but the economics are not favorable to accomplish this. In some ways, PBP is trying to get around this by adding a huge (and inherently socialized) infrastructure, but that fix is much worse than the problem it's trying to solve.

PHEVs can make use of the infrastructure already in place (gas stations) until and if batteries get good enough and cheap enough to build BEVs.

By: John

John — Fri, 09 Apr 2010 13:08:14 +0000

PBP is a terrible business model that is probably destined to fail. Most people will charge cheaply at home overnight most of the time and will rarely ever need the "services" that PBP offers, at a premium. Expensive battery swap stations and an inventory of extra batteries available for them will increase the overall cost of EV's, not decrease it. Batteries are getting better and cheaper all the time, and having PBP as a middle man between my batteries and the power companies does not help make my EV cheaper. Worth noting that Nissan decided to remove themselves from the PBP system.

By: Josie Garthwaite

Josie Garthwaite — Thu, 08 Apr 2010 20:52:12 +0000

Interesting ideas, Jim and Roland. Keep 'em coming. I'm curious, Jim -- do you think BEVs should be dropped altogether in favor of PHEVs?

By: Roland

Roland — Thu, 08 Apr 2010 19:14:37 +0000

Why not sell these cars with one small battery pack but provide space for (say) 3 more? The owner could buy/charge/install/remove to meet his changing needs. This also minimizes weight which would improve range. The install would need to be a slide-in/slide-out arrangement but any competent MechEngr. could figure out such an arrangement. Also, sell/rent a small trailer with batts and/or diesel gen. for those longer trips. Design for flexibility.

By: Jim

Jim — Thu, 08 Apr 2010 19:09:46 +0000

I'd weigh this guy's comments with a block of salt. This is a company that thinks the consumer should pay a monthly fee for their EV in support of an infrastructure of battery swap stations, vs. simply buying a PHEV which would need a smaller battery, and need no such infrastructure (not even charging stations).

The PBP business model is in NO ONE'S long-term best interest except for PBP.