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AT&T, in conjunction with some 10-15 incumbent telecom carriers — British Telecom, Deutsche Telecom and NTT among them — is plotting to launch a Skype competitor, according to a research report issued this morning by ThinkEquity analyst Anton Wahlman.

This is Wahlman’s theory for now, but his track record is full of theories that have eventually been proven right. For instance, he once issued a report that outlined 16 reasons why Cisco should buy Scientific Atlanta — which the networking giant went on to do, for $6.9 billion. For that reason alone, I put in a call to AT&T to get the lowdown, but all they would offer was the boilerplate phrase, “We can’t comment on this type of speculation.”

Anyway, back to the Skype competitor! Essentially what Wahlman is saying is that incumbents are going to offer a VoIP client that will work on the incumbent broadband/3G wireless pipe, and will use a backend platform that will allow folks to make free voice calls to anyone who’s logged into it.

Much the same way as Skype-to-Skype calls are free, incumbents could use their platform to keep calls from each other’s network free. The plan could help them avoid the termination charges and still make money when the calls go off the network to, say, a rival’s phone service or wireless network. “We believe that they will have to use a common client and common software platform in order to make this work,” Wahlman said.

Isn’t it too little, too late? Realistically speaking, there’s a slim chance of anyone catching up with Skype, which keeps adding subscribers and which, despite being mismanaged by its acquirer, has a momentum all its own. “Better late than never,” was Wahlman’s take.

Here are some key points about this yet-unnamed proposed Skype killer:

* To be launched in 2009.
* The concept will be extended to mobile phones eventually.
* The service would run on the carrier broadband connection, and also on top of the 3G/4G wireless broadband pipe.
* The service will be used as a lure for selling other services such as video.
* The incumbent consortium partners can brand this service any way they want.

Big shifts in the telecom landscape are forcing the carriers to think along these lines, Wahlman said in a chat earlier this morning. First, carriers are reluctantly facing up to the fact that voice has become a losing proposition. Thanks to competition from folks like Skype, voice is becoming essentially free. Second, they are losing fixed-line customers with an alarming rapidity.

As I have noted previously on several occasions, the carriers are in a race against time — these line losses basically make their plans to sell other services such as broadband and video impossible, thereby risking their future plans all together. The cost of winning back the customer who switches to, say, cable, VoIP, or a rival’s wireless service is just too high.

In the past, carriers have merely taken half-measures to address the voice-for-free problem. So this is radical new thinking: If voice is a losing business, why shouldn’t the carriers cannibalize it themselves, then sell other services, including video? As Wahlman noted, “Robust data connection is the most valuable service the carriers sell.”

Amen to that. I just find it hard to believe that the dinosaurs are finally getting jiggy with this new way of thinking.

A single commodity hard disk is fast on its way to being able to store every song ever recorded;* a close examination of how the rapid improvement of storage technology might apply to communication, therefore, is long overdue. Consider email, where the retention of messages enables the threading of conversations by recipient, subject and date. For while recording telephone calls usually means government wiretaps, the merits of a communication archive from an end user’s perspective deserves some consideration.

Few over the age of 25 will like the idea of creating a permanent record of telephone calls and other forms of communication, but the discomfort of mature adults can represent a counter-indicator. Plus, it seems safe to assume that people can distinguish between government (bad) and personal (good) uses of recording technology. Communication archives will require strong privacy tools and a reliable delete function, but an argument against a permanent record is an argument against communication. After all, people avoid email in some contexts, but no one proposes eliminating email archives.

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I’m no fan of the phone companies’ tactics of stifling competition in broadband through the strategic deployment of lobbyists in Washington. Thanks to FCC Chairman Kevin Martin, they have gotten what they needed. Perhaps that’s why I was struck by this Ars Technica headline: “Grab your wallet: Qwest wants release from line-sharing rule.”

The Ars report points to a study by QSI Consulting which concludes that: “Qwest’s bid for local deregulation will unleash $1.14 billion in higher charges annually for customers in four major Western markets if approved by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC).” Wow, that’s sure to get everyone’s attention — especially mine, since I’ve been watching the slow asphyxiation of the 1996 Telecom Act for some time now. (I should note, however, that I also am skeptical of claims made by the study, mostly because QSIConsulting counts XO Communications as a customer and the study was commissioned by XO.)

If Qwest gets its way, it won’t have to provide its lines (and facilities) on a wholesale basis, which essentially means there is no way independent companies can exist unless they build their own facilities. And that, of course, is why XO Communications is up in arms. The arguments to deny Qwest’s request are many and valid. Verizon also wants to back away from giving wholesale access to its competitors. I think this is a crummy move by the phone companies. They got everything they ever could have wanted out of the 1996 Act; any concessions they had to made they’ve since sneakily reneged on. XO is right.

So all the noise, anger and finger-pointing at Comcast’s cheap traffic tricks didn’t impact its broadband business. The company just reported a decent enough first quarter, but what got my attention: It now has 14.1 million high-speed subscribers, compared to 13.6 million at the end of 2007. That translates to about 500,000 new subscribers. Given how broadband sales have slowed down for DSL providers (but not for FTTH services), this is pretty significant. Karl on DSL Reports is taking a glass-half-full approach to the earnings but writes that things are slowing down. Seems like extra speeds are helping push the revenues as well, according to the company:

The strong subscriber and revenue growth in the first quarter of 2008 benefited from the introduction of additional promotional offers and speed tiers, including Comcast’s BLAST and Performance Plus services (8Mbps or higher service) and Comcast’s Economy Internet service (768Kbps service).

Another astonishing number: Comcast added 639,000 Comcast Digital Voice (CDV) customers during the first quarter — penetration reached 12 percent or 5.1 million customers with revenues of about $587 million in the first quarter of 2008. Time Warner Cable also posted a similar kind of growth, adding 280,000 phone customers and 304,000 high-speed customers in the first quarter. In comparison, the phone companies keep losing landline customers. No wonder phone companies are worried.

About two months ago, I wrote about my decision to get rid of my land line and rely strictly on my cell phone — with its unlimited plan — for my voice needs. It was a mistake. My social network (namely in the form of my mother-in-law) couldn’t take it, so my husband and I capitulated and returned to AT&T for a basic land line with no frills for about $20 a month.

I should note that when we lost the land line, neither my husband nor I really noticed. There was one awkward moment when I had to send a fax and realized I couldn’t unless I went down the street to the grocery store, but other than that, I never missed the cord. My mother-in-law, on the other hand, a wonderful woman who still carries around a copy of the Yellow Pages in her car for when she needs to look up a number or an address, was very uncomfortable with the idea. Continue Reading

Skype has released Skype 3.8 for Windows, and it has better audio, thanks to some improvements in the audio engine. Hopefully it will translate into better call quality and fewer dropouts. The best and most useful feature of this new release: If you change your headset, headphones or microphone, there’s no need to mess around with the sound settings — Skype adjusts everything automatically. Skype folks tell us that they have made a “number of video-related bug fixes” and added their own “UPnP implementation.”