Palm should have leveraged their vast array of in-house and third-party applications long before this as they had a clear, competitive advantage. Namely, the number of Palm OS titles and smartphones on the market as early as 2002… anyone remember the Treo 180? Now Palm has over 5,000 applications (over 1,000 are free), which Venture Beat notes is half that of the Apple’s iTunes App Store and ten times more than Google’s Android Marketplace.

Numbers and strategies aside, Palm’s store is here now and available for download. The company has partnered with PocketGear, a long-time handheld software vendor; I haven’t yet seen any details if developer terms are modeled after that of Apple and Google.

Update: Mobile Crunch indicates that developers will see 50% of software sale revenues, which is far less than Google, Apple and even RIM are offering.

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My gut tells me that Nova won’t be solely for smartphones. Like Android’s future plans, I expect we’ll see a wide range of devices planned to run on the Nova platform. While Palm is clearly in the smartphone market, competition is becoming far too strong for Palm to build their entire new business on handsets. Palm knew this a year or two ago and started branching out in other directions beginning with, and temporarily ending with, the Foleo.

While the Foleo didn’t quite pan out, a new and more open operating system might help Palm. But again, like Android, it all depends on if third party developers join in the party. After all, what good is an operating system on a mobile device if you’re limited by the applications you can run?

Assuming that Nova is a device-agnostic platform, here’s what I’m expecting to see and hear at 11am on January 8, 2009:

• Nova will run on a wide range of devices, i.e.: digital audio players, phones of all types, netbooks, mobile Internet devices, carputers, home media streaming devices, etc…
• Palm joins the LiMo Foundation.
• A few announcements with hardware partners to illustrate Nova’s potential
• Details of the Nova SDK for developers and a Palm Nova store for applications
• Concept smartphone hardware to be shown, possibly a concept netbook or MID as well
• No actual products available until the second quarter of 2009.

Of course, this is all speculation on my part… some from my gut and some from what I’m reading and hearing. I wouldn’t expect all of these thoughts to be correct, but for the moment, let’s go with them. Would there be enough here to help Palm regain some of the lost luster it once had in this space? Assuming I’m wrong to begin with: what are you expecting or wanting to see and hear from Palm?

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There’s no doubt that Chrome offers a utilitarian, minimalistic view of the web, which can be a good thing, but there are still some barriers to fast, widespread adoption:

• No version for non-Windows platforms, although these are in the works. While PCs running Windows make up the lions share of the computer market, my gut says that Mac and Linux folks are more likely to adopt a non-native browser than Windows users. I don’t mean the tech-saavy Windows users here, I mean Joe the Plumber… OK, bad example. I mean my dad and his friends.
• No extensions yet, which is one of the main reasons folks turn to Firefox. Again, this is in the works and recently, the Google folks introduced an extension framework for Chrome.
• The new TraceMonkey JavaScript engine in the upcoming Firefox 3.1 takes away some of the advantage Chrome has with it’s speedy V8 engine. Both are lickety-split, but what was once a clear competitive advantage is about to see feature parity per early test results.
• Name recognition. Yup, Google as a brand is among the tops in the world, but mostly as a search engine to mainstream consumers. The Mozilla team has worked hard over the past few years to spread the word and get the Firefox brand in front of as many eyes as possible. This will surely change over time, but for now, I think more people know what Firefox is than what Chrome is.

At the moment, the general consensus is that Chrome effectively has around 1% of the browser market. It’s sure to grow, but not at the pace that Opera or Firefox have in the past. My guess: Google will consider it a win if they see 10% market share in the next twelve months. Of course, that’s subject to change if we see Google work some deals with OEMs and get Chrome on the PC as the default browser. It would be even better if they get it on some non-Android hardware as well. Also bound to help: the Chrome browser recently got a Bookmark manager.

At the moment, I generally use Chrome on my PCs (it works great on my netbook) but Firefox on my Mac. Who’s made the switch to Chrome full-time and why?

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HP will offer batteries using Boston-Power’s solution under the "HP Enviro Series" brand and expects to charge only $20 to $30 more for these power packs over current batteries. While we’re all looking for more run-time on the go, a solution like this can help lower overall device costs since one of these batteries will effectively last as long as three other batteries for your mobile device. Another plus for these batteries? They charge up quickly, as much as 80% in 30 minutes. That makes finding that seat near the AC adapter at Starbucks a little more palatable: you can gain a quick charge before finishing that cup of java.

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Having said that, service by the end of 2009 might truly be a PRspin. Who’s to say that they didn’t originally plan for serviceavailability in January of 2010, for example, which makes this more ofa positioning statement? Regardless of whether the expectedavailability date has moved up one month or twelve, the odds of successfor WiMAX continue to decrease in my book. Normally, I’m not a bettingman and when I am, I usually root for the underdog, but there are toomany challenges aligning against WiMAX right now.

• Although the service is available in Baltimore, MD and works well,it’s still spotty. Like any wireless service, the three keys arelocation, location, location. You’ve got to have seamless coverage inan area for the mobile web and it’s just not there yet.
• This is tough time to build out a national network, giventhe global economic slowdown. Even before the economy came to ascreeching halt, Clearwire’s effort had around $3 billion in fundingbut says it will take $5 billion for the nationwide plans. You reallydon’t want to find funding for 40% of a multi-billion project duringbad economic times.
• WiMAX is facing a classic "chicken and egg" scenario. To helpoffset costs of the network, it needs bunches of WiMAX-capable productson the market so it can benefit from service revenue. Whilemanufacturers announced WiMAX products at last year’s CES, relativelyfew have delivered. Why should they when those products can only beused in less than a handful of U.S. cities? What’s the incentive whenthey already have existing 3G options that are slower, but work inhundreds of areas around the country?

I’d love to see WiMAX succeed. It offers unique and affordableday-passes and monthly service charges without commitments. Andfrankly, the folks I’ve spoken with at Clearwire are darn nice people.They’ve got a solid vision to offer a valuable service butunfortunately, I think they’re running out of time. If we don’t seesome major WiMAX deployment completed within the first six months of2009, my fear is that LTE will build up steam and roll right overWiMAX.

I know we have some readers that are currently using WiMAX in theBaltimore area; I’d love to hear additional feedback and thoughts fromthem. Many have shared positive experiences in terms of high speed andlow latency, but what do you do when find a hole in the network asyou’re on the go? If you’re a current Sprint EV-DO customer, you mighthave a dual-mode adapter for 3G fallback, but what if you’re not? Areyou finding the nearest coffee house with WiFi or do you simply plan tostay in WiMAX coverage areas as much as possible?

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Bear in mind that these figures represent a snapshot in time. They represent the smartphone market sales for the third quarter of this year, not the overall smartphone OS market share. Still, they paint a dreary picture for some because the numbers are a good indicator of how the trends continue, barring some profound new product announcements. Even then, announcements don’t often help market share gains when there’s no product availability. As a result, the introduction of Nokia’s N97 earlier this week won’t help Symbian for two quarters since that’s when the phone will become available for sale. In fact, one could argue that the product announcement could further hurt Symbian’s market share over the next six months: folks could hold off on buying currently available Nokia smartphones in anticipation of purchasing an N97 in the second half of 2009.

Just to recap from the prior quarter, Symbian had captured 57.1% of smartphone sales and didn’t have much new to offer in terms of products. There were a few new Windows Mobile handsets, but most were re-hashes or carrier ports of existing devices. Nothing new from Palm aside from the Treo Pro, which isn’t carrier subsidized and would actually help the Windows Mobile numbers. Apple introduced the iPhone 3G with new carrier subsidization plans and clearly that made a huge difference for the quarter. How much? Let’s look at the numbers.

In the second quarter of 2008, Apple iPhone sales were 2.8% of the market. One the faster 3G device hit the market at $199 and $299 out of the consumer’s pocket, Apple took 12.9% of all smartphone sales for the quarter. Support for Microsoft Exchange in the enterprise likely didn’t hurt either. That’s staggering growth and it came at the expense  of every other big player: RIM, Windows Mobile, Palm and Symbian were all down. In fact, this is the first time I can ever remember Symbian under 50% market share in any given quarter.

Three months ago, I took a guess at what these numbers would look like in the future. I nailed the Symbian share, but I clearly underestimated the impact of adding 3G to a lower-priced iPhone when I said this:

"Symbian stays in the number one spot, but their share dips dangerously close to or just under the 50% mark. Apple continues to be the big gainer and grabs 8% thanks to the 3G iPhone and Exchange Support with corporate adoption here and there. Palm’s low price strategy continues to work with the Centro, and while it wont have the impact it had in 2008, Palm should still grow to near 3.5% Linux devices stay status quo around 7%, which leaves 31.5% left for RIM and Windows Mobile. My gut says that RIM continues the upward trend faster than Windows Mobile. A new version of Windows Mobile should be out by this time next year, but it will take time to appear in a vast number of handsets. Well, if the 6.1 upgrade is any indication anyway. RIM will take 19% to 20% market share, leaving Windows Mobile flat in terms of market share."

I mistakenly thought that Palm’s low-priced Centro would help more than it has. Perhaps a cheap smartphone with an old operating system is… getting old? T-Mobile didn’t offer their Android-based G1 handset until after the quarter, which is why I believe that the Linux number didn’t change. It will for the next quarter… my guess would be a jump from around 7% to 12% of the market, but further growth will depend on how many third-party developers show up for Android. RIM might gain back some losses thanks to new handsets like the Bold and Storm, although they need to address some software issues to gain serious market share. Some think it’s the best BlackBerry to date, while others think it’s a dud so far. Windows Mobile won’t move much until the next version of the OS and with no Nokia N97 for nearly six months, Apple will likely be on par with RIM.

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While I’m downloading, you can read the highlighted points and features in the beta version, which of course, are subject to change…

Update: for my configuration, the installation package was 301MB in size. Vista said that the update could take up to an hour, but on the Lenovo X301, it was completed in around 12 minutes.

Update #2: I’ve removed the feature list in the build by request and due to what appears to be a misunderstanding in communications.

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That’s the deal and although it still doesn’t describe the service in my book, it does work on another level now that Sprint has sold its WiMAX airwaves to Clearwire. The company announced the closing of various prior deals including a $3.2 billion investment from Comcast, Intel, Time Warner Cable, Google and Bright House Networks. Stacey Higginbotham offers additional clarity to the future of nationwide WiMAX with these tidbits along with my thoughts:

• The Clear network will capable of upgrades to LTE. Hmm… you could give bonus points for strategic planning ahead, but does it show a lack of confidence in WiMAX in a nod to the "other" 4G standard that’s coming? AT&T and Verizon Wireless have already committed to LTE.
• Clear service is expected to offer average downloads of 2Mbps to 4Mbps, with peak speeds faster. That’s in line with what I saw in Baltimore at the launch event, but in my opinion, it’s not dramatic enough to sacrifice the very limited geographic availability for my usage.
• Clearwire will work with Sprint to leverage Sprint’s current 3G service with support for dual-mode 3G / WiMAX hardware. This should help customers in existing Sprint data coverage areas if they know that their location will be getting WiMAX from Clear in the short-term future.
• By the middle part of 2009, we’ll move beyond USB and ExpressCard  WiMAX solutions for notebooks and see more mobile internet devices, MP3 players and other devices. My gut says that even at that point, you’re looking at devices that can only connect to WiMAX in a dozen or so cities.

Whatever you call the network, Clearwire has to get those investment dollars put to work right away for network expansion since a service is only good if it’s readily available for use. At that moment HSDPA, EV-DO, and even WiFi to some extent, clearly fit that bill.

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