ATT is pushing DSL in INdiana, Michigan and Texas as it pushes local, long distance and DSL bundles to customers fed-up with their local phone companies, reports CNET News.com

First it was Qwest, and now it is Verizon. It seems that the bells are jumping on to the VoIP bandwagon.

bq. Verizon Communications plans to launch VoIP services in Q2 2004, targeting DSL users and the consumer market, Lawrence T. Babbio Jr., Verizon’s Vice Chairman and Domestic Telecom President, said at the UBS global communications conference in New York, reports Converge Digest. “VoIP for the mass market is coming,” said Babbio, “and just like with LNP (local number portability) there is nothing anybody can do to stop it.”

It is hard to resist saying…told you so!

It is not quite broadband, but it is still pretty fast. Ahead of the number portability, AT&T Wireless has announced that it had launched its EDGE high speed data service. The service is going to cost $80 a month, and will allows users to log on the wireless net at speeds ranging from 100 to 130 kilobits per second, but in order to do so one would need a special EDGE modem card or a handset. Model availability it seems is quite limited. Full press release here.

There seems to be a lot of excitement around fixed wireless broadband and its new avatar, WiMAX. A few days after I posted my essay, The New York Times did two back-to-back stories on the technology and how it is helping spread broadband to the boonies. Today Pyramid Research has released a report which says…

* WiMAX will come to dominate the fixed wireless market by 2008.

* Intel, however might be too bullish about the market adoption of WiMAX. Pyramid says that Intel is assuming faster equipment deployment and adoption than we are, by about two years.

* Pyramid believes that Nextel might embrace WiMAX in early 2005. They are in the process of acquiring the necessary spectrum right now and WiMAX would give them a competitive advantage over other wireless carriers. “It would also be a huge win for Intel and its vendor partners, who we suspect would significantly subsidize and promote such a rollout,” says Pyramid analyst John Yunker and adds, “Ultimately, WiMAX is about delivering low-cost broadband wireless access. Regardless of which vendor comes out on top, it is the millions of people in rural and developing markets who stand to gain the most from WiMAX.”

bq.

Like it or not, MCI will remerge and create havoc in the market. The signs of price competition are already there. And it is having a bad effect on MCI/WorldCom as well. The company reported that it had a net loss of $35 million in September, and revenues fell to $1.95 billion. In comparison the company had a net gain of $132 million in August on sales of $2.01B.  MCI blames continued margin pressure and weakness in its consumer LD and business markets. Well expect bad news to continue all through the telecom food chain. AT&T and Sprint could be next as well. Or as they say, there goes the neighborhood.

At the start of this year I had written an opinion piece on Microsoft and the challenges it faces as the world moves away from personal computers and become more of a connected universe where networks, devices and home entertainment come together. ( Well that is happening right now, if you read the New York Times and The Wall Street Journal.) As part of following up, I got into a conversation with one of my sources at Microsoft, who has recently left the company.
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According to research firm IDC, in Q3 2003, Samsung improved its number three global market share position to 11.5 percent, up from 10.5 percent in the previous quarter. Researchers Strategy Analytics note that Samsung shipped 15 million phones worldwide in 3Q 2003. The company will grow a whopping 55 percent in the US this year, mostly due to high demand for its camera phone which are simple elegant and flip open. Nokia and Motorola should be worried – very very worried.

If you like millions opened the Wall Street Journal this morning, you would have seen this headline screaming at you: Big Bet Behind Intel Comeback: In Chips, Speed Isn’t Everything.

The story waxes eloquent about how chipzilla survived the downturn and is making a comeback, thanks to its well-timed moves into wireless and mobile computing. It has some interesting points but being a naysayer, I thought would be prudent to point out.

bq. One sign of the new approach: Intel this year boosted the speed of its desktop microprocessors just once, compared with six times last year. Yet Intel has gained market share against chief rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc. More Centrino-style product bundles are on the way, which Intel hopes will make it even harder for rivals to keep pace.

Anyway I shall overlook the gains made by PowerPC G5 and AMD. Or that Intel got kicked out of the X-Box. It is a sign that maybe Intel cannot produce leading edge processors. But still, it is brilliant spin on IntelÌs shortcomings.

I have never had doubts about the media management abilities of Intel. Much like the Intel Centrino ad where a man is logging on to the Internet while a snowstorm rages around him at the base camp of maybe Mount Everest. (Intel cleverly forgets to mention that there are no Wi-Fi connections at base camp of pretty much most mountains but never mind, why nit-pick÷.)

But there were many things, which cannot be overlooked. For instance that the average selling price of an Intel chip is off by almost a $100 to $150 since the heydays of PC back in 1996. And falling.

In case you missed Dell third quarter conference call, the company pretty much said that most of the growth is coming from the low-end of the PC market, which is very price sensitive. These $600 dollar machines cannot afford a $150 dollar processor. It needs something cheaper, like around $60. As a result Dell has been focusing on higher margin products such as servers and storage. This is not a good sign for IntelÌs future because Dell is fiercely loyal Intel customer.

Intel by its own admission has been touting supreme growth in India and China, two very price sensitive markets, and the performance of AMD in those markets bears that out. However, Intel will have a bigger headache next year when Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) transitions its 64-bit processor manufacturing process to 9 nanometers and become cost competitive with almost everything Intel has to offer. This will take away much of the pricing power Intel has in the high end of the market where it sells super expensive Xeons and Itaniums (does anyone really buy this crap?) Despite what the numbers say, remember this little piece of advice: Next year PC industry might grow by 10 percent but the average selling prices of computers are going to fall by 10 percent. It is clear that PC is a zero sum game right now.

Here is another recent article, this one by Steven Levy of Newsweek which points out the obvious:

bq. Trouble in PC-land. While consumers have found some reasons to buy new PCs, the corporate world has less incentive. ÏThereÌs never been such a gap between the IT world and the consumer,Ó says Ray Ozzie, CEO of Groove Networks. ÏIn the corporate world, the bosses want to lock down the desktop so you canÌt install or change anything. But at home the same users can hook up cameras and music devices, and find new uses for their PCs.Ó Meanwhile, PC makers are increasingly hedging their bets by selling more profitable electronics devices like TVs, cameras and digital jukeboxes.

With that as a backdrop, you perhaps have a fair idea that the PC desktop market is pretty much in the crapper. Now lets get to the mobile strategy. Indians and Chinese are buying desktops and not notebooks, so that takes two growth markets out of the equation. In addition the big demand for notebooks in the US and Europe is coming from consumers, not corporations, which means the price points are going to fall below $1000, predicts Ashok Kumar, an analyst with Piper Jaffrey. I tend to believe him for he has been pretty accurate on predicting these things.

And as far as Centrino strategy is concerned, I have just one thing to say: Does Intel manufacture its own Wi-Fi Chips? What up with 802.11G, Gee!

Anyone seen that movie, Wag the Dog? It was a classic tale of life imitating art or something like that. Anyway I was observing an interesting trend today. For past couple of years the blogsphere used to take a cue from the institutional media and bloggers would comment on the news, reviews and views published in most of the newspapers and magazines of record. However, today it was the other way around.

Jeff Jarvis points to an article about Nick Denton and Gawker Media, in the New York Times today where it matters: in the business section. Andrew Ross sorkin wrote a good piece. And else where, in the Times, Tony Perkins gets roasted . Suddenly bloggers are making news, and the institutional media is writing about them. Or as I like to call it, Blog The Dog phenomenon

It is Cable Vs Baby Bells and it is going to get ugly. It might be great for us because I think the broadband prices are going to decline. And hopefully so will the prices for video component of the cable business.

Since Baby Bells have started selling DirecTV to consumers and plan to roll out video-over-copper or video-over-fiber services, the cable business will have to counter with some serious price cuts.

ironically both industries while fighting tooth-and-nail with each other are under pressure from new technologies. The RBOCs are losing lines to mobile, while cable loses customers to satellite. Additionally, both are fighting for share in the consumer broadband market.

According to independent financial analyst firm, Probe Financial Associates (PFA), there are several forces pushing the two industries into a long-term, costly battle. “New initiatives require significant spending, and both industries have a mature, declining business at their core,” comments Lynda Starr, Probe Vice President, U.S. Carrier Research.

“In response, both are eyeing the other’s offerings and they are entering each other’s turf,” continued Starr. “For example, some telcos have strong wireless products in their bundles, but they face stiff competition from cable in the broadband market.”