That’s according to preliminary data released Sunday from a report by Net Applications which breaks down the Internet presence of Mac, Windows and Linux machines for the month of October. Microsoft’s hope that Windows 7 would slow the sure and steady pace of Apple’s growth appears to have been unfounded, at least at this early stage.

Windows still controls the lion’s share of the computer market, of course, with a huge 92.54 percent total share. But that’s down 0.25 percent from September. And yes,  Windows 7 did gain ground during the month, despite being officially available for purchase for only nine days at the end of October, but Net Applications explains that it held more than 2 percent going into the survey, owing to the use of pre-release versions like the beta and the release candidate.

Net Applications also points out, in a separate report, that much of Windows 7′s gain during October (it ended the month at 2.85 percent) came from XP’s market share, so it doesn’t represent the sort of “switch back” users Microsoft was looking for, only upgraders who skipped Vista in favor of the older, more stable OS.

Mac’s share jumped to 5.26 percent, up from 5.12 percent during the previous period. That’s a gain of 2.73 percent overall, which is a good number, but not nearly as high as the 5 percent gain Apple experienced in September. The slowdown might be due to a surge thanks to early adoption of Snow Leopard which is now coming to an end.

Note that Net Applications isn’t taking this data from sales numbers, but from visits to its client web sites, which add up to an impressive 160 million total. That’s a fairly large sample base. Apple 2.0 does point out that this particular methodology tends to favor devices like the iPhone, which account for more frequent web visits due to their ease of use.

The key to the future success of both companies will be converting the large Windows XP user base, which still accounts for 70 percent of all users. Both Apple and Microsoft will be looking to convert those users as they inevitably decide to upgrade. Holiday season numbers over the next few months should give a good indication of who will win out in the competition for those consumer dollars.

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The latest numbers from Net Applications’ Operating System stats are available, and they provide a nice epilogue to last month’s numbers. In October the Mac’s share was down, and Vista’s was up, prompting some to write about the apparent anomaly.

I countered that notion with my own writeup that showed both Windows and Mac have ups and downs in their numbers, so any single month isn’t particularly relevant. This is also true because Net Applications’ numbers themselves are really just a measure of OS usage hitting their network of web sites worldwide (~40,000 sites). It may be as accurate an OS measure as any, but one would still have to say it’s not conclusive. If anything, since some of those sites could be IE-only, it might even be skewed against any non-Microsoft OS. 

But the data is sure fun to play with.

Looking at November’s numbers for just Windows and Mac we see the Mac back up, wiping out the tiny “loss” of last month while adding over half a point. Meanwhile, while Vista is up again (~1.2 points), XP is down (~1.8 points). This is just additional confirmation of the point in my previous article: Vista’s gains are coming primarily at XP’s expense. Hardly unexpected. 

For even more fun, let’s take a look at Windows (all flavors) and Mac (Intel and PowerPC) over the last two years (in the graph below note that the Windows scale is in the left, and Mac scale is on the right): 

From 12/06 to 11/08 Windows loses 4.2 percent while Mac gains 3.2. Where did the other 1 percent of Windows losses go? Well, Linux picked up nearly half a point, and I assume the other half-point went to the ever-popular — and every statisticians’ best friend — category known as “Other.”

In short, the trends are these: 

• Vista is gaining share. 
• XP is losing share as fast (or faster) than Vista is gaining it. 
• Windows “net” is that it’s losing share. 
• Mac is gaining share. 

Obviously, these things go slowly. After all, the above graph took two years. It’s not like Microsoft should panic now that that they’ve dipped below 90 percent; nor should Apple crow that they’re up to nearly 9. That’s a 10 to 1 disparity; it’s pretty obvious which one is the 800 pound gorilla in the room. 

Still, the overall trends are not in Microsoft’s favor, and Apple’s move from 5.7 to 8.9 represents a 56 percent increase in two years. That’s impressive no matter how you look at it.

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For Microsoft, it is usual practice to have a period of change-over where sellers are allowed to bundle copies of an older OS with their machines. With Apple, however, the switch is made, more or less, immediately. A friend recently bought a new MacBook on the day Leopard was released and, while the operating system was not installed, a free upgrade copy was bundled with the purchase. Within literally a couple of weeks it was very difficult to purchase a Mac with anything other than the new operating system.

It’s all about confidence

There are two important things we can learn about Microsoft and Apple through this differing policy. Firstly, Apple have a much greater confidence in their software to push it out immediately with all new machines sold. It could be argued that it simply wouldn’t be possible for Microsoft to achieve this, as they have a much looser control on the licensing and sale of their software — they don’t make the hardware. If, however, Microsoft were confident that packaging Vista with all new sales would delight rather than upset consumers, pushing vendors to switch to the new software on a much shorter timescale wouldn’t be a problem.

With Vista, it appeared that Microsoft wanted to release the software fairly quietly so as to minimize the negative impact of early teething problems. They didn’t have the confidence one would expect from a company so heavily involved in the software market.

The software doesn’t cut it

It was undoubtedly a hope that, over time, Microsoft would be able to iron out the problems with Vista and create a product of which they could be proud. Each time the deadline for a full switch-over is pushed back, this goal seems to be moving further and further away. The reception Vista has received over the long term hasn’t differed dramatically from the negative press which it received originally.

In contrast, Leopard was adorned with great reviews from the outset. One particularly elegant paragraph is from David Pogue’s review:

Leopard is powerful, polished and carefully conceived. Happy surprises, and very few disappointments, lie around every corner. This Leopard has more than 300 new spots — and most of them are bright ones.

From the outset, Apple were able to minimize problems and bugs, creating an operating system worthy of immediate inclusion on every product in their line.

The good side

This must mean that an opposing view can be taken — that Microsoft should be applauded for creating such a long-lasting product in Windows XP. The fact that an operating system introduced over 7 years ago is still suitable in such a fast paced industry does illustrate a degree of fore-thinking and quality. The OS is still well suited to small form factor machines (‘netbooks’, if you will), and Microsoft are allowing the bundling of XP with this type of machine until 2010. Vista may have its problems, but XP is still providing Microsoft with a reliable and proven product to fall back upon.

In conclusion

With the next version of Windows (“Windows 7″) a few years away, Microsoft need to be thinking long and hard about how to avoid the same problems again. Many of the large customers who have chosen not to upgrade to Vista will be putting a great deal of importance on Windows 7 which, if it doesn’t deliver, could easily lead them to jump ship to Apple or Linux based systems.

If Microsoft want to lead the software industry for the next iteration of operating system technology, they need to throw Windows 7 out of the door oozing confidence that it will be a stable and reliable release for years to come. Apple are snapping at their heels, and won’t be giving up the fight.

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