Here’s what Apple predicted for its overall results for the January through March period back in late January:

“Looking ahead to the second fiscal quarter of 2012, which will span 13 weeks, we expect revenue of about $32.5 billion and we expect diluted earnings per share of about $8.50.”

Wall Street investors, naturally, are expecting a bit more from the company that always lowballs its forecasts: They are anticipating revenue to be around $36.64 billion for earnings of $9.99 per share.

So how will Apple match — or surpass — that forecast?

The second fiscal quarter had one big new product release: the new iPad. Its sales are likely to be a highlight and provide Apple with a nice boost. While the company sold 4.69 million iPads during the same quarter a year ago, this year the new iPad sold more than half of that total in its very first weekend, with 3 million. Apple also dropped the older model iPad 2 by $100 so it starts at $399. So, expect iPad sales to be a fairly large number: the average estimate from Wall Street analysts is just under 12 million units.

Mac sales have been up for dozens of quarters in a row, but it’s also getting to that time of year where Apple should be refreshing its MacBook and iMac lineup. However, that didn’t happen during the quarter, so it won’t be a huge surprise if unit sales don’t match last quarter’s record-high 5.2 million with potential buyers (sensibly) waiting to upgrade. The quarter in question is also typically a low point in the year for the PC industry in general — it’s after the holidays and still months before graduation and back-to-school shopping. A year ago, 3.76 million Macs were sold. On Tuesday, analysts are expecting a little over 4.5 million sales to be announced.

But again, the key metric influencing Apple’s earnings these days comes down to the iPhone. Sales of the device are what have propelled Apple’s success in the last five years to the top of the tech and business worlds. It’s also what can lead to a major Wall Street freakout: When Apple didn’t meet analysts’ expectations in August thanks to a delayed upgrade cycle of iPhones, there were predictions of the company’s imminent doom. When Apple announced at the end of last quarter that it sold an astonishing 37 million iPhones following the 4S debut in the fall, its stock went on a tear, rising 44.7 percent in just over two months.

So should we be prepared for investors’ handwringing or high-fiving? More likely the latter. Estimates of how many new iPhones Apple sold vary widely, as one might expect. Cannacord Genuity says 32.6 million; JP Morgan is looking for 31.1 million units; Fortune polled 48 analysts that follow Apple and the average estimate was 30.5 million, though the low estimate was 26 million and the highest 33 million.

There was some degree of concern last week after Verizon announced it had activated 3.2 million iPhones, or 26 percent fewer during the last quarter than it did the same quarter a year ago. But, to be fair, was the first quarter that Apple freed the iPhone from AT&T’s exclusivity in the U.S., so there was a bit of pent-up demand back then. And Verizon still sold more iPhones than all of its Android phones combined during that quarter.

Either way, compared to Apple’s iPhone sales the same quarter a year ago (18.65 million) it’s extremely likely this past quarter’s growth is going to be above 50 percent.

Though other new phones that launched during the quarter have had some buzz, like Nokia’s Windows Phone-powered Lumia phones, Nokia has already said sales of the heavily anticipated phones were “mixed.” Samsung, on the other hand, is continuing to charge ahead as Apple’s most significant competitor in smartphone sales. It says it expects to report a record quarter for the same period, and analysts are estimating the Korean electronics maker may have shipped 44 million smartphones between January and March.

We’ll be covering the earnings call at 2 p.m. PT Tuesday, so be sure to come back here then.

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In a note to clients, Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty shared the results of the Alphawise survey, comparing its results to Morgan Stanley’s existing estimates. Based on the survey, she suggests Apple could ship as many as 36 million iPhones in the fourth quarter of 2011, considerably higher than the 28 million predicted by Wall Street. Not only that, but she also says that according to survey data, the iPhone should do even better during the first quarter of 2011, selling as many as 41 million units worldwide.

The iPad stands to gain from the desire expressed by 27 percent of respondents to own a tablet in the near term, something that Huberty believes could put Apple on track to sell 81 million iPads globally in 2012, which is much higher than the 52 million Morgan Stanley was predicting independently of the survey. And if Apple wants to boost sales even further, Huberty estimates that a $100 price cut for the iPad could result in about 15 million more sales worldwide.

Of course, these predictions should be taken with a grain of salt. The Alphawise survey upon which they’re based depends on polling customers for their own opinions; stated intentions and plans about buying electronics at a future date don’t always pan out, and may also have been excessively optimistic since the survey took place immediately following the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, before the year-end cash crunch resulting from holiday shopping really makes its effects felt. Still, the numbers do show that Apple devices are well-positioned among consumers, and developments in the new year like the release of an iPad 3 could definitely propel sales to new lofty heights.

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When the iPad 2 first debuted in Apple’s refurb store, discounts were relatively small: $50 off each model, representing discounts of between 5 and 9 percent, depending on which model you looked at. Now 16 GB models are discounted $80, and 32 GB and 64 GB versions carry an even steeper $100 price drop, representing between 12 and 16 percent off the value of a new, nonrefurbished device.

The new pricing applies to both Wi-Fi and Wi-Fi + 3G models, and Apple currently lists pretty much every model as being in stock, with the exception of the 64 GB AT&T model. All Apple-refurbished iPads come with a full one-year warranty, a new battery and outer shell, and free shipping. There’s really no downside if you’re looking for a gift when comparing these to new iPads, except that you can’t get engraving on refurbished gear.

Apple doesn’t say anything about these price changes’ being limited-time offers, but, as is always the case with refurbished products, supply is limited. You have to wonder if this isn’t a precursor to the arrival of an iPad 3 early next year.

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Small carriers offering big advantages at home

A Mission Local story on Thursday describes this as a key growth area for the iPhone that doesn’t often get the attention of launches on major new networks such as Verizon. It mentions H20, a small regional MVNO that uses AT&T’s 3G network and also offers monthly service at rates 5o percent below what the iPhone’s authorized carriers can promise, including cheap international calling, which is a winning deal for immigrant populations. H20, and others of its ilk, are seeing new customers sign on for its contract-free, prepaid service at a remarkable rate. At one general wireless and computing store in San Francisco, sign-ups for the small carrier had exceeded 10 per day, according to the store clerk.

Small carriers and MVNOs come with significant downsides: Service could be cut off if technology changes or contracts with carriers they rent tower usage from ends, and customer service can be positively atrocious. Plus, with H20 at least, there’s no way to send multi-media messages (image, voice, audio or contacts). But with monthly charges at half what you’d expect to pay on one of the big three for comparable services, it’s a trade-off many appear willing to make.

Bypassing the “new” tax

There’s also the benefit of being able to bring your own hardware, too. People can get iPhones for much cheaper than the going rate for unlocked devices on Apple’s site, either used or through less-than-legal sources, and carriers like H20 have no qualms about working with local shops that perform unlocking services to get them set up. Even if they end up paying a little more upfront for an unlocked iPhone, they save big on cheaper monthly fees. Even on larger networks, like T-Mobile’s, the practice of bringing unlocked iPhones to a network that can’t even fully support them has a lot of appeal, or at least that’s what 1 million users seem to suggest.

China’s thriving gray market

In China, the gray market is huge for the iPhone and other Apple products. For instance, half the iPads sold in the country as of October were from unauthorized sources, according to a report from Analysys International. The iPhone 4S also sparked a lot of gray market demand. When it went on sale in Hong Kong, stores were swamped with shoppers intending to resell devices, and the price soon after its launch in the U.S. was in the $2,000 U.S. range in Chinese electronics markets.

Getting its iPhone into the hands of as many customers as possible is good for Apple, even if it doesn’t necessarily happen through legitimate channels. Trends like those listed above, where users are jumping onboard the iPhone train through any means possible, eventually mean Apple will have more potential customers for its media stores. The broader potential audience can also be influenced by Apple’s halo effect, through which iOS device owners tend to buy more Macs and other Apple products.

Apple laying the groundwork for a gray future

Apple doesn’t appear to be doing much to combat its gray market success; in fact, if anything, it has taken steps to encourage off-contract business in recent years, by selling factory unlocked devices directly through its own store. These are much easier to resell on eBay or in other second-hand markets, thereby fuelling opportunities for pre-paid users. That, and the continued availability of cheaper devices like the iPhone 3GS, stand to benefit Apple more in the long run than it would appear at first glance, since they can stick around and encourage Apple’s pre-paid growth, even after their original owners are done with them.

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For the fourth quarter of 2011, AT&T has already seen around 6 million smartphones sold: already near its previous record of 6.1 million smartphones during a single quarter. With only a month left to go in the fourth quarter (December, one of the busiest shopping months of the year for smartphones), it definitely isn’t a case of counting chickens before they hatch to say AT&T will pass the 6.1 million mark this time around.

In its official statement, AT&T singled out the iPhone 4S when talking about how it managed such strong smartphone sales, calling attention to its earlier announcement of more than 1 million iPhone 4S handsets activated in the first five days of its availability. It also said iPhone 4S sales “remain strong” for the carrier, two months after its initial release in the U.S. A lot of those sales come from a very high number of handset upgrades from AT&T customers who were eagerly awaiting new hardware according to AT&T, so pent-up demand resulting from Apple releasing this year’s iPhone upgrade later than usual could have helped boost sales even more than with previous launches.

AT&T’s account of strong iPhone 4S sales suggests analyst predictions of a very strong quarter for Apple’s smartphone are right on track.

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White issues a monthly “Apple Barometer” to help investors gauge its success, using data gathered from supply chain sources to anticipate Apple’s sell-through numbers. The barometer was up 17 percent during November versus the previous month, whereas normally it tends to gain around only 2 percent per month. Even though White says October wasn’t as strong as usual for Apple, the gain for November was still very strong and due mostly to amazing sales on Apple’s part for the month.

Over at Canaccord, Walkley didn’t have all good news for Apple watchers. In a note Tuesday, he said the firm expects Amazon’s Kindle Fire to take away as much as 20 percent of Apple’s tablet unit share between the third and fourth quarters of 2011. That’s not necessarily that bad for Apple, however, since the iPad is still projected by Walkley to sell more units than it did in the third quarter of 2011, with Amazon’s device just adding to the global tablet shipment forecast total. Plus, Apple seems to anticipate that more Kindle Fire sales should lead to more iPad sales down the road.

The iPhone, however, is unquestionably a success for Apple, prompting Walkley to bump his sales estimate of Apple’s smartphone from 29 million up to 30.5 million for the quarter, which is huge compared to the 17.1 million Apple sold last quarter. The iPhone’s sales success should see it gain back significant market share from Android competitors, according to Walkley.

Apple always has a strong holiday quarter, but with the late introduction of the iPhone 4S this year, and the continued success of the iPad 2, we definitely should see some entirely unprecedented numbers this time around.

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The App Store is a bit of rolling sea of pricing turmoil, according to madvertise’s findings in the U.K. App Store, with regular highs and lows that make shopping on certain days more advisable than on others. Fridays turn out to be the best possible time to spend your hard-earned cash, since 19.58 percent of iPad and 18 percent of iPhone app prices on average see a drop just before the weekend, and none of the top five categories of apps see any price increases on a Friday.

Don’t jump the gun and think you can get away with buying earlier, though; Thursdays are the worst possible day to shop, with 17.9 percent of iPad and 17.36 percent of iPhone apps showing an increase in price that time of week. Thursdays are good for one thing, however, since along with Wednesdays it’s the most common time for new apps to arrive in the App Store. Updates also come most frequently on Thursdays, with Tuesdays coming in a close second.

Madvertise’s study, which it created in conjunction with AppZapp, a bargain-hunting tool for App Store shoppers, concludes that Friday is the best day to shop for apps. That’s not too surprising, since a lot of publishers seem to promote their wares with weekend sales in order to lock in lucrative positions high up in the App Store rankings.

All bets are off during this weekend, owing to Black Friday, but there’s little reason to doubt Friday won’t be a great time to pick up some cheap apps, both in the U.S. and abroad, too.

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The images posted by 9to5Mac appear to be from an internal staff leaflet or flyer detailing the Apple Store’s Black Friday deals. In addition to the Mac sales (which are actually pretty good at $100 off even the cheapest models), a lot of accessories are on sale, including Apple’s own iPad Smart Cover ($11 off all models), wireless input devices ($11 off keyboard, Magic Mouse and Magic Trackpad) and networking devices ($11 to $51 off AirPort and Time Capsule hardware).

But some of the standouts include sales on products that, while excellent, are normally out of reach for a lot of consumer budgets (mine included). For instance, the Jambox by Jawbone gets a $51.95 discount, making the Bluetooth speaker only $148 on sale. Jawbone’s breakout hit, the fitness tracking UP wristband, is also significantly cheaper according to the spy shots, getting a $21.95 temporary price drop. Bowers & Wilkins’ excellent C5 stereo headset, which we recently picked as the best overall iPhone headphone companion, is on sale for $128, a full $51.95 off its original price, and the same company’s Zeppelin Air, which is the best and brightest of the AirPlay speaker lot, hovers a little closer to being affordable thanks to a $101.95 price break, making it ‘only’ $498.

I may not have expressed much enthusiasm about Apple’s Black Friday sales in the past, but if this flyer turns out to be accurate I’ll be singing a different tune. Deals on high-end Apple accessories don’t come along often enough, and wireless, room-filling sound just might be worth waiting in line for. Check out the full flyer snapshot at 9t05Mac and let us know if anything catches your eye.

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It may seem a bit odd that Apple would bother with this when anyone with access to iTunes or an iOS device can see what the current rankings are at any given time. But these weekly charts cover only the previous week, and they can look quite different from the live version; for instance, BBC’s iPlayer didn’t make this inaugural chart, despite being No. 7 in the top free iPad apps on the App Store itself.

Apple’s plan with this is obviously to provide media outlets in many world markets with more material regarding the App Store to run. If it can get outlets to pick up the weekly charts the same way that gaming sites regularly publish top console performers, it should help raise public awareness of the App Store and strengthen that Apple sub-brand. It also brings a snapshot of the App Store’s internal offerings to the wider world, reaching potential customers who might not otherwise see what goes on beyond the walls of Apple’s mobile software marketplace. It’s also good for developers, since it provides another outlet for highlighting apps, which in turn is good for Apple’s ability to continue to attract top development talent.

Here are the Apple charts from the UK for this week, which basically tell us two things about iOS software sales in that country: First, a lot of the top paid apps are classic titles that never seem to stray too low in the rankings. And second, Apple itself has a much higher percentage of top app sales on the iPad than on the iPhone. That is not exactly a revelation, but these charts could provide another useful data point for analyzing the progress of mobile software sales.

IPhone (paid apps)

1. Amazing Breaker — Dekovir
2. WhatsApp Messenger — WhatsApp
3. Hardest Game Ever — 0.02s PRO — Ming Liang Chien
4. Angry Birds — Clickgamer.com
5. Superman — Chillingo Ltd
6. FIFA 12 by EA Sports — Electronic Arts
7. Fruit Ninja — Halfbrick Studios
8. Sleep Cycle Alarm Clock — Maciek Drejak Labs
9. Camera+ — tap tap tap
10. Blueprint 3D — FDG Entertainment

IPhone (free apps)

1. Hardest Game Ever — 0.02s — Ming Liang Chien
2. Facebook Messenger — Facebook
3. Crime City — Funzio
4. Amazing Breaker Free — Dekovir
5. Place My Face — MUGOCO
6. Solitaire — Byterun
7. Idiot Test — Way Too Funny — CreativeNose
8. Finger Olympic — Fingerway
9. Glass Tower 3 — iDevUA Treelight
10. WordSearchUnlimited Free — VirtueSoft.com

IPad (paid apps)

1. Pages — Apple
2. Sonic & Sega All-Stars Racing — Sega
3. Minecraft: Pocket Edition — Mojang
4. Shadowgun — Madfinger Games
5. Extraction: Project Outbreak — Chillingo
6. GarageBand — Apple
7. The Cube — All3Media International
8. Numbers — Apple
9. Keynote — Apple
10. Scriblenauts Remix — Warner Bros

IPad (free apps)

1. Sky Movies — BSkyB
2. ITV Player — ITV
3. Blood & Glory — Glu Games
4. iBooks — Apple
5. 4oD Catch Up — Channel 4
6. Demand 5 — Channel Five
7. Solitaire — Byterun
8. Snoopy’s Street Fair — Beeline Europe
9. FilmOn Free TV Live Football Sports News — FilmOn.com
10. Gmail — Google

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Last quarter, Apple sold 4.89 million Macs, which was itself a company record, and represented 26 percent growth in sales compared to the same quarter last year. If Apple hits the numbers Munster is predicting, growth would be between 23 and 28 percent year-over-year for the current three-month period, which covers the holiday shopping period.

In recent years, the focus of Apple’s business in terms of profit and in terms of media attention has largely shifted to the iPhone and iPad, but the consistent growth of the Mac platform (at home and in many key international markets, including Europe and China) mean that Apple’s computer business still makes up a key component of the company’s overall revenue picture. The Mac’s stalwart performance is even more impressive when you consider that it’s doing so well in an industry that has lately seen inconsistent overall business, with stagnating sales growth in the low single digits, and even shrinking shipments in some cases.

The Mac remains strong even as the iPod, another of Apple’s perennial successes, wanes; NPD says iPod sales are down about 18 percent year-over-year, which is still less of a drop-off than Wall Street is anticipating for the quarter. The iPod business is seen as likely to dry up as people move towards multi-function devices like the iPhone rather than standalone media players.

Last quarter, the Mac was the only category to exceed analyst expectations, while all others either met guidance (the iPad) or underperformed (the iPhone). The Mac also has the advantage of playing in a relatively set field; potentially industry-shaking R&D efforts appear focused more in other categories, like smartphones and tablets. Since the PC industry seems somewhat creatively stagnant, Apple dropping prices and making cutting-edge tech like the MacBook Air available to a much broader audience is clearly resonating with customers.

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