In a note to clients, Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty shared the results of the Alphawise survey, comparing its results to Morgan Stanley’s existing estimates. Based on the survey, she suggests Apple could ship as many as 36 million iPhones in the fourth quarter of 2011, considerably higher than the 28 million predicted by Wall Street. Not only that, but she also says that according to survey data, the iPhone should do even better during the first quarter of 2011, selling as many as 41 million units worldwide.

The iPad stands to gain from the desire expressed by 27 percent of respondents to own a tablet in the near term, something that Huberty believes could put Apple on track to sell 81 million iPads globally in 2012, which is much higher than the 52 million Morgan Stanley was predicting independently of the survey. And if Apple wants to boost sales even further, Huberty estimates that a $100 price cut for the iPad could result in about 15 million more sales worldwide.

Of course, these predictions should be taken with a grain of salt. The Alphawise survey upon which they’re based depends on polling customers for their own opinions; stated intentions and plans about buying electronics at a future date don’t always pan out, and may also have been excessively optimistic since the survey took place immediately following the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, before the year-end cash crunch resulting from holiday shopping really makes its effects felt. Still, the numbers do show that Apple devices are well-positioned among consumers, and developments in the new year like the release of an iPad 3 could definitely propel sales to new lofty heights.

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When the iPad 2 first debuted in Apple’s refurb store, discounts were relatively small: $50 off each model, representing discounts of between 5 and 9 percent, depending on which model you looked at. Now 16 GB models are discounted $80, and 32 GB and 64 GB versions carry an even steeper $100 price drop, representing between 12 and 16 percent off the value of a new, nonrefurbished device.

The new pricing applies to both Wi-Fi and Wi-Fi + 3G models, and Apple currently lists pretty much every model as being in stock, with the exception of the 64 GB AT&T model. All Apple-refurbished iPads come with a full one-year warranty, a new battery and outer shell, and free shipping. There’s really no downside if you’re looking for a gift when comparing these to new iPads, except that you can’t get engraving on refurbished gear.

Apple doesn’t say anything about these price changes’ being limited-time offers, but, as is always the case with refurbished products, supply is limited. You have to wonder if this isn’t a precursor to the arrival of an iPad 3 early next year.

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Small carriers offering big advantages at home

A Mission Local story on Thursday describes this as a key growth area for the iPhone that doesn’t often get the attention of launches on major new networks such as Verizon. It mentions H20, a small regional MVNO that uses AT&T’s 3G network and also offers monthly service at rates 5o percent below what the iPhone’s authorized carriers can promise, including cheap international calling, which is a winning deal for immigrant populations. H20, and others of its ilk, are seeing new customers sign on for its contract-free, prepaid service at a remarkable rate. At one general wireless and computing store in San Francisco, sign-ups for the small carrier had exceeded 10 per day, according to the store clerk.

Small carriers and MVNOs come with significant downsides: Service could be cut off if technology changes or contracts with carriers they rent tower usage from ends, and customer service can be positively atrocious. Plus, with H20 at least, there’s no way to send multi-media messages (image, voice, audio or contacts). But with monthly charges at half what you’d expect to pay on one of the big three for comparable services, it’s a trade-off many appear willing to make.

Bypassing the “new” tax

There’s also the benefit of being able to bring your own hardware, too. People can get iPhones for much cheaper than the going rate for unlocked devices on Apple’s site, either used or through less-than-legal sources, and carriers like H20 have no qualms about working with local shops that perform unlocking services to get them set up. Even if they end up paying a little more upfront for an unlocked iPhone, they save big on cheaper monthly fees. Even on larger networks, like T-Mobile’s, the practice of bringing unlocked iPhones to a network that can’t even fully support them has a lot of appeal, or at least that’s what 1 million users seem to suggest.

China’s thriving gray market

In China, the gray market is huge for the iPhone and other Apple products. For instance, half the iPads sold in the country as of October were from unauthorized sources, according to a report from Analysys International. The iPhone 4S also sparked a lot of gray market demand. When it went on sale in Hong Kong, stores were swamped with shoppers intending to resell devices, and the price soon after its launch in the U.S. was in the $2,000 U.S. range in Chinese electronics markets.

Getting its iPhone into the hands of as many customers as possible is good for Apple, even if it doesn’t necessarily happen through legitimate channels. Trends like those listed above, where users are jumping onboard the iPhone train through any means possible, eventually mean Apple will have more potential customers for its media stores. The broader potential audience can also be influenced by Apple’s halo effect, through which iOS device owners tend to buy more Macs and other Apple products.

Apple laying the groundwork for a gray future

Apple doesn’t appear to be doing much to combat its gray market success; in fact, if anything, it has taken steps to encourage off-contract business in recent years, by selling factory unlocked devices directly through its own store. These are much easier to resell on eBay or in other second-hand markets, thereby fuelling opportunities for pre-paid users. That, and the continued availability of cheaper devices like the iPhone 3GS, stand to benefit Apple more in the long run than it would appear at first glance, since they can stick around and encourage Apple’s pre-paid growth, even after their original owners are done with them.

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For the fourth quarter of 2011, AT&T has already seen around 6 million smartphones sold: already near its previous record of 6.1 million smartphones during a single quarter. With only a month left to go in the fourth quarter (December, one of the busiest shopping months of the year for smartphones), it definitely isn’t a case of counting chickens before they hatch to say AT&T will pass the 6.1 million mark this time around.

In its official statement, AT&T singled out the iPhone 4S when talking about how it managed such strong smartphone sales, calling attention to its earlier announcement of more than 1 million iPhone 4S handsets activated in the first five days of its availability. It also said iPhone 4S sales “remain strong” for the carrier, two months after its initial release in the U.S. A lot of those sales come from a very high number of handset upgrades from AT&T customers who were eagerly awaiting new hardware according to AT&T, so pent-up demand resulting from Apple releasing this year’s iPhone upgrade later than usual could have helped boost sales even more than with previous launches.

AT&T’s account of strong iPhone 4S sales suggests analyst predictions of a very strong quarter for Apple’s smartphone are right on track.

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White issues a monthly “Apple Barometer” to help investors gauge its success, using data gathered from supply chain sources to anticipate Apple’s sell-through numbers. The barometer was up 17 percent during November versus the previous month, whereas normally it tends to gain around only 2 percent per month. Even though White says October wasn’t as strong as usual for Apple, the gain for November was still very strong and due mostly to amazing sales on Apple’s part for the month.

Over at Canaccord, Walkley didn’t have all good news for Apple watchers. In a note Tuesday, he said the firm expects Amazon’s Kindle Fire to take away as much as 20 percent of Apple’s tablet unit share between the third and fourth quarters of 2011. That’s not necessarily that bad for Apple, however, since the iPad is still projected by Walkley to sell more units than it did in the third quarter of 2011, with Amazon’s device just adding to the global tablet shipment forecast total. Plus, Apple seems to anticipate that more Kindle Fire sales should lead to more iPad sales down the road.

The iPhone, however, is unquestionably a success for Apple, prompting Walkley to bump his sales estimate of Apple’s smartphone from 29 million up to 30.5 million for the quarter, which is huge compared to the 17.1 million Apple sold last quarter. The iPhone’s sales success should see it gain back significant market share from Android competitors, according to Walkley.

Apple always has a strong holiday quarter, but with the late introduction of the iPhone 4S this year, and the continued success of the iPad 2, we definitely should see some entirely unprecedented numbers this time around.

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The App Store is a bit of rolling sea of pricing turmoil, according to madvertise’s findings in the U.K. App Store, with regular highs and lows that make shopping on certain days more advisable than on others. Fridays turn out to be the best possible time to spend your hard-earned cash, since 19.58 percent of iPad and 18 percent of iPhone app prices on average see a drop just before the weekend, and none of the top five categories of apps see any price increases on a Friday.

Don’t jump the gun and think you can get away with buying earlier, though; Thursdays are the worst possible day to shop, with 17.9 percent of iPad and 17.36 percent of iPhone apps showing an increase in price that time of week. Thursdays are good for one thing, however, since along with Wednesdays it’s the most common time for new apps to arrive in the App Store. Updates also come most frequently on Thursdays, with Tuesdays coming in a close second.

Madvertise’s study, which it created in conjunction with AppZapp, a bargain-hunting tool for App Store shoppers, concludes that Friday is the best day to shop for apps. That’s not too surprising, since a lot of publishers seem to promote their wares with weekend sales in order to lock in lucrative positions high up in the App Store rankings.

All bets are off during this weekend, owing to Black Friday, but there’s little reason to doubt Friday won’t be a great time to pick up some cheap apps, both in the U.S. and abroad, too.

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The images posted by 9to5Mac appear to be from an internal staff leaflet or flyer detailing the Apple Store’s Black Friday deals. In addition to the Mac sales (which are actually pretty good at $100 off even the cheapest models), a lot of accessories are on sale, including Apple’s own iPad Smart Cover ($11 off all models), wireless input devices ($11 off keyboard, Magic Mouse and Magic Trackpad) and networking devices ($11 to $51 off AirPort and Time Capsule hardware).

But some of the standouts include sales on products that, while excellent, are normally out of reach for a lot of consumer budgets (mine included). For instance, the Jambox by Jawbone gets a $51.95 discount, making the Bluetooth speaker only $148 on sale. Jawbone’s breakout hit, the fitness tracking UP wristband, is also significantly cheaper according to the spy shots, getting a $21.95 temporary price drop. Bowers & Wilkins’ excellent C5 stereo headset, which we recently picked as the best overall iPhone headphone companion, is on sale for $128, a full $51.95 off its original price, and the same company’s Zeppelin Air, which is the best and brightest of the AirPlay speaker lot, hovers a little closer to being affordable thanks to a $101.95 price break, making it ‘only’ $498.

I may not have expressed much enthusiasm about Apple’s Black Friday sales in the past, but if this flyer turns out to be accurate I’ll be singing a different tune. Deals on high-end Apple accessories don’t come along often enough, and wireless, room-filling sound just might be worth waiting in line for. Check out the full flyer snapshot at 9t05Mac and let us know if anything catches your eye.

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It may seem a bit odd that Apple would bother with this when anyone with access to iTunes or an iOS device can see what the current rankings are at any given time. But these weekly charts cover only the previous week, and they can look quite different from the live version; for instance, BBC’s iPlayer didn’t make this inaugural chart, despite being No. 7 in the top free iPad apps on the App Store itself.

Apple’s plan with this is obviously to provide media outlets in many world markets with more material regarding the App Store to run. If it can get outlets to pick up the weekly charts the same way that gaming sites regularly publish top console performers, it should help raise public awareness of the App Store and strengthen that Apple sub-brand. It also brings a snapshot of the App Store’s internal offerings to the wider world, reaching potential customers who might not otherwise see what goes on beyond the walls of Apple’s mobile software marketplace. It’s also good for developers, since it provides another outlet for highlighting apps, which in turn is good for Apple’s ability to continue to attract top development talent.

Here are the Apple charts from the UK for this week, which basically tell us two things about iOS software sales in that country: First, a lot of the top paid apps are classic titles that never seem to stray too low in the rankings. And second, Apple itself has a much higher percentage of top app sales on the iPad than on the iPhone. That is not exactly a revelation, but these charts could provide another useful data point for analyzing the progress of mobile software sales.

IPhone (paid apps)

1. Amazing Breaker — Dekovir
2. WhatsApp Messenger — WhatsApp
3. Hardest Game Ever — 0.02s PRO — Ming Liang Chien
4. Angry Birds — Clickgamer.com
5. Superman — Chillingo Ltd
6. FIFA 12 by EA Sports — Electronic Arts
7. Fruit Ninja — Halfbrick Studios
8. Sleep Cycle Alarm Clock — Maciek Drejak Labs
9. Camera+ — tap tap tap
10. Blueprint 3D — FDG Entertainment

IPhone (free apps)

1. Hardest Game Ever — 0.02s — Ming Liang Chien
2. Facebook Messenger — Facebook
3. Crime City — Funzio
4. Amazing Breaker Free — Dekovir
5. Place My Face — MUGOCO
6. Solitaire — Byterun
7. Idiot Test — Way Too Funny — CreativeNose
8. Finger Olympic — Fingerway
9. Glass Tower 3 — iDevUA Treelight
10. WordSearchUnlimited Free — VirtueSoft.com

IPad (paid apps)

1. Pages — Apple
2. Sonic & Sega All-Stars Racing — Sega
3. Minecraft: Pocket Edition — Mojang
4. Shadowgun — Madfinger Games
5. Extraction: Project Outbreak — Chillingo
6. GarageBand — Apple
7. The Cube — All3Media International
8. Numbers — Apple
9. Keynote — Apple
10. Scriblenauts Remix — Warner Bros

IPad (free apps)

1. Sky Movies — BSkyB
2. ITV Player — ITV
3. Blood & Glory — Glu Games
4. iBooks — Apple
5. 4oD Catch Up — Channel 4
6. Demand 5 — Channel Five
7. Solitaire — Byterun
8. Snoopy’s Street Fair — Beeline Europe
9. FilmOn Free TV Live Football Sports News — FilmOn.com
10. Gmail — Google

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Last quarter, Apple sold 4.89 million Macs, which was itself a company record, and represented 26 percent growth in sales compared to the same quarter last year. If Apple hits the numbers Munster is predicting, growth would be between 23 and 28 percent year-over-year for the current three-month period, which covers the holiday shopping period.

In recent years, the focus of Apple’s business in terms of profit and in terms of media attention has largely shifted to the iPhone and iPad, but the consistent growth of the Mac platform (at home and in many key international markets, including Europe and China) mean that Apple’s computer business still makes up a key component of the company’s overall revenue picture. The Mac’s stalwart performance is even more impressive when you consider that it’s doing so well in an industry that has lately seen inconsistent overall business, with stagnating sales growth in the low single digits, and even shrinking shipments in some cases.

The Mac remains strong even as the iPod, another of Apple’s perennial successes, wanes; NPD says iPod sales are down about 18 percent year-over-year, which is still less of a drop-off than Wall Street is anticipating for the quarter. The iPod business is seen as likely to dry up as people move towards multi-function devices like the iPhone rather than standalone media players.

Last quarter, the Mac was the only category to exceed analyst expectations, while all others either met guidance (the iPad) or underperformed (the iPhone). The Mac also has the advantage of playing in a relatively set field; potentially industry-shaking R&D efforts appear focused more in other categories, like smartphones and tablets. Since the PC industry seems somewhat creatively stagnant, Apple dropping prices and making cutting-edge tech like the MacBook Air available to a much broader audience is clearly resonating with customers.

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An Apple store in China

A new Morgan Stanley survey (via AppleInsider) found that Apple is the most desirable brand of computer in China right now, beating out local heavyweight Lenovo. China became the biggest buyer of personal computers as of August, according to IDC, so that’s great news for Apple.

The Morgan Stanley survey of over 1,500 respondents spread across 16 Chinese cities found that Apple was picked as the brand of choice for people’s next computer purchase 21 percent of the time. That compares with just five percent who currently own an Apple computer. Lenovo still remains the top choice for consumers’ next purchase, but it dropped from 31 to 23 percent. If laptops are considered alone, Apple exceeds Lenovo as the next purchase of choice, with 22 percent of respondents choosing Cupertino’s products over Lenovo’s 21 percent.

Aside from being high on consumer t0-buy lists, Apple also ranked as the most desirable PC brand, according to the survey. It achieved a weighted score of 66 percent, with Asus in second at a close 65 percent.

The main barrier to Apple computers for most respondents was price; only 7 percent of survey respondents said that they would be willing to spend north of $1,000 for a computer, which is where the bulk of Apple’s line lies. Luckily, the trend is changing; of those planning to buy a new computer, half plan to do so within two years and expect to spend 6 percent more than the roughly $700 average price currently paid. If Apple can lower or keep prices the same as Chinese customers grow more affluent and continue to expect to pay more, eventually cost won’t be nearly the barrier it is today.

The iPad is also walking away with the tablet market in China, just as it is elsewhere. Sixty-eight percent of respondents plan to make it their next tablet purchase, while 65 percent of tablet owners currently have one. The iPhone is also poised to do very well, with 40 percent of respondents saying it will be their next device, more than four and a half times the number of current iPhone users as polled.

Apple CEO Tim Cook said that China was now Apple’s second-largest market, and judging by these numbers, it won’t be too long before it climbs to the top spot.

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Apple’s iPhone 4S hit parade continues to roll on, according to notes from two investment analysis firms on Monday. In the U.S., the 4S continues to sell out daily in most Apple retail stores, while preorders for the device’s gradual international rollout also continue to put up impressive numbers. Still, Apple is doing a good job of getting as many phones into customer hands as possible.

Good record at home . . .

In the U.S., Deutsche Bank’s Chris Whitmore found that polling Apple retail stores revealed that more than 85 percent are running out of iPhone 4S inventory on a daily basis. Apple is making sure that customers who miss out one day are satisfied the next, however, thanks to its next-day pickup system run through the online Apple store. Reservations made online for next-day pickup currently account for most iPhone 4S sales, making it difficult for customers to simply walk in and buy, according to Whitmore.

The situation is a little more hit or miss at Apple’s U.S. partners, like AT&T, Sprint and Verizon. Whitmore’s stock checks to these outlets found that supply levels were less easy to predict on a daily basis, since shipments from Apple were said to be infrequent and stores were not notified of expected deliveries in advance. Apple often prioritizes its own retail operations when determining where stock is sent, especially for products in high demand.

Based on his checks, Whitmore found his forecast of 28 million iPhones sold during the holidays to be “increasingly conservative,” and that in fact, the ceiling for this quarter will be set entirely by the ability of Apple’s production partners to keep up with demand.

. . . and on the road

The iPhone 4S remains in demand on a global scale, too. Shipping expectations at most if not all international versions of the Apple online store remain at one to two weeks, the same waiting period since the right after iPhone 4S preorders began in October.

Buyers in international markets that are just now getting the iPhone 4S are also eager to get their hands on the device, as evidenced by the recent preorder sales blitz that took place on Friday in Hong Kong. Ticonderoga Securities analyst Brian White said in a note on Monday that the 4S sold out just ten minutes after preorder sales began in Hong Kong, which bodes well for the mainland China release of the device, which has yet to receive an official date.

Apple appears to be doing a good job of keeping iPhones going out to customers without falling into the kind of extended wait times that made prior product launches frustrating for many. The next-day reservation system is a terrific addition in terms of efficiently managing in-store customer demand, and online orders haven’t slipped beyond two weeks as of yet.

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On Tuesday, BGR reported that Apple will be introducing a new iOS retail store app, and this new app will allow for online ordering with in-store pick up, and also for customer self-checkout for some items. Both would represent major steps toward minimizing or eliminating the hassle of paying for goods at brick-and-mortar retail locations, making for an Apple shopping experience that makes actually buying things almost as painless as window shopping.

A shift more dramatic in concept than in practice

The process for self-checkout seems a little sci-fi as reported by BGR’s sources: Apparently, you’ll scan items using your iOS device’s camera, then click purchase, whereupon your Apple ID (and associated payment method) is charged, after which you can walk out with the product.

But though it seems far-fetched, other companies are already attempting similar things, including PayPal and AisleBuyer. Also, it isn’t too different from the system in place now: Associates often let you leave with product in hand, maybe with a paper receipt but often not, and sometimes with a small sticker indicating you paid. I always feel like I’m getting away with something when I leave an Apple Store even now.

For larger items, you’ll be able to buy in advance, and either pick up the item within 12 minutes if it’s in stock, or have it shipped free to a store if not. Retail locations will also reportedly gain the ability to receive custom-configured Macs shipped to store, which will finally remove one of the biggest barriers tweak-happy consumers like myself encounter when trying to use them. Again, this is a small difference from what’s currently on offer, but could do much to change the perception of Apple retail for consumers who have traditionally avoided storefronts.

Not the first; hasn’t stopped Apple before

Other companies have done ship-to-store before. Best Buy and The Source here in Canada have both offered those options for quite a while now. But as Apple has proven time and time again, the difference between offering something and getting it exactly right can also be the difference between failure and runaway success. In my experience of ship-to-store programs offered by other retailers, I’ve never had the process go entirely smoothly, and service in practice always differed from what was advertised.

If Apple can pull off what this report says it will attempt, it will be bridging the gap between online sales and brick-and-mortar retail in a real and lasting way that should benefit both sides of the business. Customers who once avoided retail sales will use them for the sake of convenience (in-store pickup eliminates the need to be home to receive a package), and retail customers will encounter less frustration with finding an available sales associate or navigating Apple’s sometimes inconvenient distributed checkout system.

Products, not sales, taken to the extreme

Finally, these advances would bring the Apple Store a little more in line with Steve Jobs’ vision of the perfect retail experience. Store space could be given over almost entirely to hands-on product demo and samples, and to Genius Bar tech support and setup assistance.

Apple once revolutionized retail by replacing the focus on sales and inventory with emphasis on product knowledge and sales associates who behave more like tour guides than confidence men cruising for marks. Now, it could do so all over again by taking transactions off of the retail floor altogether, and leaving just products and first-hand experience of the same by curious customers.

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Apple Store in Shanghai

China isn’t just where Apple manufactures products. It’s now the country that delivers the most revenue for the company after the U.S. Over the last year, Apple and its executives have emphasized China and its surrounding areas as an important part of its sales strategy. But Tuesday during Apple’s fiscal fourth-quarter 2011 earnings call, CEO Tim Cook shed more light on just how important China has become.

Calling the progress in China “amazing,” Cook said that if you count the greater China region as a whole (which includes Hong Kong and Taiwan) it now accounts for 12 percent of Apple’s full-year revenue for 2011. That’s up from just 2 percent in fiscal year 2009, he said. That makes it Apple’s “fastest-growing region by far.”

For the fourth quarter of 2011, China contributed $4.5 billion, or 16 percent of the $28.7 billion in total revenue the company reported. It’s even more astounding when you compared that to Europe, which contributed $7.4 billion to Apple’s bottom line — that means China and its surrounding areas are accounting for a little over half of what Europe is.

Cook also reiterated the stats on its retail stores in area that he presented at the iPhone 4S event two weeks ago. There are now six Apple Stores in greater China (compared to 64 in Europe), and the Hong Kong location, which opened last month, saw more visitors on opening day than any other Apple Store. All the greater China locations are the company’s most-visited and highest-grossing retail stores, and there will be more China stores to come.

Cook made it clear Apple is going to ride the momentum in China as far as it can:

“In my lifetime I’ve never seen a country with as many people rising into the middle class aspiring to buy products that Apple makes. It’s an area of enormous opportunity. It has quickly become No. 2 on our lists of top revenue countries very, very quickly.”

Image courtesy of Flickr user adactio

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Both the 32 GB Wi-Fi + 3G and the 64 GB Wi-Fi-only iPads are on sale for $399, which represents a savings of $230 and $200 respectively. The 64 GB Wi-Fi + 3G version is $499, which is $230 less than its original retail value. The 3G versions are compatible only with AT&T in the U.S., as first-gen iPads only support GSM cellular technologies.

If you’re looking to get your hands on an iPad, and you don’t mind being a generation behind (there’s little you’ll miss unless you’re an avid FaceTime user or enjoy cutting edge games), this is great deal. Apple may just be clearing out inventory of older devices now that the original iPad has been off the market for a while, but it could also be the case that Amazon’s upcoming Kindle Fire has caused Apple to want to hook in as many iOS tablet users as possible before that device launches.

Whatever the reason for the discount, Apple lists it as a “Special Limited Time Price,” so the sale probably won’t last forever. If there’s someone really special on the Christmas list this year, this might be a nice option.

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The iPhone 4S had previously reached record heights for pre-orders, too, topping 1 million orders in its first day of pre-order availability on Oct. 7. The iPhone 4S is so far only available in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S. On Oct. 28, it goes on sale in 22 more countries, expanding to 70 additional countries beyond that by the end of the year.

In addition to the iPhone 4S success, Apple pointed out in its official press release detailing the news that there are already 25 million iOS 5 users just three days after its launch, and over 20 million users have already signed up for iCloud. In other words, you could say Apple had a pretty good weekend.

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Apple Store opens in Toronto. Credit: Daniel Bader

The iPhone 4S is now officially available for sale at Apple retail stores in the U.S. (east coast), as well as at partner retail stores including Sprint, Verizon, AT&T and Best Buy to name a few. Retail sales began at 8 a.m. Friday morning, but lines formed long before then.

Over 100 had lined up in Japan nearly 11 hours prior to launch in that country, and lines all over the U.S. and Canada now extend beyond 100, too. According to Rob Shoesmith, the dedicated U.K. fan who lined up a full two weeks early to get his hands on an iPhone 4S, there were “thousands” in line for the new phone at the Covent Garden Apple Store in London.

Early rain didn’t dampen the spirits of iPhone 4S buyers at the NYC 5th Ave. store, with around 400 people currently in line, and there were about 100 people waiting at the Eaton Centre Apple Store in Toronto as of around 12 a.m. Friday morning, and there were over 300 people waiting in line in Vancouver as of around 3 a.m. PDT.

Pre-order sales for the iPhone 4S both online through Apple itself and through its carrier partners garnered more than 1 million sales on just day one. Estimates from analysts about the anticipated size of opening weekend sales range from 2 to 3 million for most, with Carl Howe of Yankee Group predicting 4 million. At the very least, it should “easily outpace any previous launch,” as Needham & Co. analyst Charlie Wolf puts it.

For those considering trying to go out and get an iPhone 4S on day one, official Apple retail stores are known to have way more units on hand than partner stores, but as my colleague Kevin Tofel found out earlier this year with the iPad 2, sometimes finding a less frequented affiliate retailer with much less stock on hand actually leads to longer lines, especially in more rural or densely populated areas.

Are you waiting in line, or did you already get your phone? Share your launch day stories in the comments.

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