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Survey says Apple on track to sell 190M iPhones, 81M iPads in 2012

Darrell Etherington — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 14:27:28 +0000

Apple could be on track for a much stronger year than most analysts predict in 2012, if a recent Alphawise survey of consumers in the U.S. conducted for financial services firm Morgan Stanley (via Fortune) proves accurate. iPhones and iPads in particular appear to be so in demand that the devices will easily smash records next year.

In a note to clients, Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty shared the results of the Alphawise survey, comparing its results to Morgan Stanley’s existing estimates. Based on the survey, she suggests Apple could ship as many as 36 million iPhones in the fourth quarter of 2011, considerably higher than the 28 million predicted by Wall Street. Not only that, but she also says that according to survey data, the iPhone should do even better during the first quarter of 2011, selling as many as 41 million units worldwide.

The iPad stands to gain from the desire expressed by 27 percent of respondents to own a tablet in the near term, something that Huberty believes could put Apple on track to sell 81 million iPads globally in 2012, which is much higher than the 52 million Morgan Stanley was predicting independently of the survey. And if Apple wants to boost sales even further, Huberty estimates that a $100 price cut for the iPad could result in about 15 million more sales worldwide.

Of course, these predictions should be taken with a grain of salt. The Alphawise survey upon which they’re based depends on polling customers for their own opinions; stated intentions and plans about buying electronics at a future date don’t always pan out, and may also have been excessively optimistic since the survey took place immediately following the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, before the year-end cash crunch resulting from holiday shopping really makes its effects felt. Still, the numbers do show that Apple devices are well-positioned among consumers, and developments in the new year like the release of an iPad 3 could definitely propel sales to new lofty heights.

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Your guide to the 2011 Apple WWDC keynote

Darrell Etherington — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 14:00:07 +0000

It’s Monday, and that means it’s the day of Apple’s keynote address at the annual Worldwide Developers Conference in San Francisco. Festivities begin at 10:00 a.m. PDT (1 PM EDT) and usually last about two hours. We’ll have live coverage of the event from our own Colleen Taylor and Om Malik who are in attendance, but here’s our best guess of what you can expect to go down at the show.

By the numbers

Steve Jobs is hosting this year’s keynote, and generally speaking, he kicks off Apple’s public events with a look at the company’s success to date. Since this is a developer-focused event, expect to hear about the App Store’s growth, an updated figure regarding revenue paid out to developers (over $2 billion at last count), and possibly some numbers about in-app subscription adoption, since that has turned out to be quite a nice little victory for Apple. There should be an acknowledgement of the record-setting sellout of this year’s batch of WWDC tickets, and how that reflects the health of Apple’s development platforms.

Jobs will also likely talk about the success of iTunes, and the number of active accounts on file associated with the iTunes store, especially if today is the day Apple unveils its cloud music service.

Lion, iOS 5 and iCloud

The known variables about today’s talk are OS X Lion, iOS 5 and iCloud. Apple issued an official press release stating it would be talking about these three software releases specifically, though it didn’t elaborate much about any of the above. I expect Apple to talk about these new software offerings in the order I’ve listed them here, since we know less about each product as we move down the list, ending with iCloud.

OS X Lion has gotten a lot of press, and the features are not really a secret thanks to Apple’s decision to release developer preview builds of the OS. We’ve covered some of the more notable new features of Lion, and detailed many of the smaller changes it brings as well. What Apple will show off today will better reflect Lion as a polished, shipping product, and they’ll probably announce a release date, too, which could come very soon.

iOS 5 is Apple’s next big update for the mobile OS that powers its iPhone, iPod touch and iPad line of devices, and though specific information about the update are few and far between, there have been reports that show notifications and other improvements are likely on the way. Over the weekend, iTunes users also discovered an Apple slip, noting automatic over-the-air updates could be in store, too, thanks to a line included in iTunes referring to the feature. Apple also is thought to have hired a notifications specialist, reinforcing the idea that iOS 5 will change how those work. Apple will also probably take some time while unveiling iOS 5 features to bring out key development partners (like EAand Gameloft, for example) to show off new APIs in action.

iCloud looks like it will be Apple’s big unveil at this year’s conference, since there’s a lot of excitement surrounding this product. We don’t yet have a really good idea what shape iCloud will take, but John Gruber said Sunday we should think about it like iTunes, or, in other words, a repository for all the information you regularly sync to and from iOS devices, but one that resides in the cloud, instead of locally on a computer. We’ve also discussed other potential features of the service, including cloud music and media streaming, and how it might benefit iOS developers.

One more thing

At big public Apple events, we often see Steve Jobs reveal something that few, if any, saw coming. This “one more thing,” has become the biggest draw of these addresses for some. Some have speculated Apple will indeed unveil new iPhone hardware today, despite many reports to the contrary, and that this will be the “one more thing.” Supply-side, things have been awfully quiet, which is generally not the case leading up to a new iPhone model release (we almost always see reports of hardware going into full-scale production before an update), so don’t get your hopes up.

iTunes music streaming services could be the last “surprise” announcement at WWDC, especially if Apple doesn’t include them in the basic iCloud package. It would make sense if Apple planned it that way, because according to reports, the company’s negotiations with record labels came right down to the wire. If no deal was reached, Apple could leave it out without affecting their other planned announcements.

That’s the short version of what you can expect from Steve Jobs and the Apple executive team in just a few short hours. Stay tuned for our live coverage, and detailed reports on all the new features announced today.

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Report: Mobile Applications Revenue Set to Skyrocket

Darrell Etherington — Tue, 14 Dec 2010 17:30:10 +0000

Research firm International Data Corporation (IDC) predicts in a new report that based on current trends, sales of mobile apps will be a $35 billion industry by 2014. That massive boost, which represents a compound annual growth rate of 60 percent, will see app downloads climb from the 10.9 billion that took place this year to 76.9 billion in 2014.

IDC’s report, the short title of which is The “Appification” of Everything, predicts that apps will be the means by which the connected home operates in 2011 and beyond. That means smartphones, media players and tablets, as well as emerging app device categories like connected TVs and home theater streaming media boxes, and even further, into connected appliances and beyond. As mobile devices become more and more able to connect to a range of other devices, the mobile app will become more and more central to our daily lives. As IDC VP of Mobile and Wireless Research Scott Ellison puts it:

Mobile app developers will ‘appify’ just about every interaction you can think of in your physical and digital worlds. The extension of mobile apps to every aspect of our personal and business lives will be one of the hallmarks of the new decade with enormous opportunities for virtually every business sector.

Apple won’t be the only company to benefit from this growing wave of app development, but it will be at the forefront. While its competitors have managed to gain a foothold in the mobile app arena, the iTunes App Store created by Apple is still far and away the market leader in terms of reach, library, revenue and downloads. iOS is still killing Android in worldwide OS market share based on web usage, despite Android closing the gap at home. The App Store boasts well over 300,000 apps, while the Google marketplace reportedly has just over 100,000 at last count. The gap has narrowed significantly, but that’s still three times as many apps.

Recent evidence suggests that Android’s meteoric rise may be slowing. In terms of ad impression, Google’s mobile OS hit a lull recently as it ran up against Apple’s revamped iOS line up, bolstered by the release of version 4.x software across all devices. Most importantly, developer interest still seems to be strongest in iOS devices.

If apps are the future, then so is Apple. When the Mac App Store is introduced sometime in the next two months, it’ll provide cross-platform software sales opportunities that will have still more developers lining up to fill Apple’s library. With $35 billion in revenue potentially on the line, there’s little doubt in my mind that we’ll see them unlock the Apple TV’s hidden app potential next.

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iPad 2: A Clearer Picture of What to Expect

Darrell Etherington — Fri, 29 Oct 2010 19:30:14 +0000

New rumors are circulating that the next iPad will have front- and back-facing cameras, and FaceTime. We looked at what you might expect from the iPad 2 back in August, but in the intervening months, much has come to light that paints a different picture.

With more competitors entering the fray, Apple will have to really impress to maintain its commanding lead when it does introduce a new model. The next iPad will deliver more of what users want, and it’ll pick up a few tricks from its nearest Mac relative, the MacBook Air.

All-in on FaceTime

Apple will bring front and back cameras to the iPad. Even if the reports about OmniVision’s contract for image sensors for both a 5-megapixel rear and VGA front-facing camera hadn’t surfaced, I’d be sure of this. The cameras are a definite upgrade incentive for first-gen iPad owners, but they also expand the reach of FaceTime and bolster Apple’s mobile video standing.

Many will object that the rear-facing camera isn’t as much of a certainty, especially if Apple just wants people to use video calling, but I think we’ll see it. It’ll draw in users who don’t already have an iPhone or iPod touch for mobile video, and besides, the ability to switch between views is something Apple really pushed in its FaceTime-based iPhone marketing campaigns. It’s a key differentiator, and Apple wants users to have it on all mobile platforms.

More Ports

If there’s one thing Apple hates, it’s slots, knobs and buttons marring the edges of its machines. Still, some are predicting more of those for the next iPad. Goldman Sachs analysts say the iPad 2 will get mini-USB, and Mission:Repair says the iPad will have two dock connectors so it can be docked in either portrait or landscape mode.

The mini-USB thing just isn’t going to happen. Apple has too much invested in the dock connector for now, and I think if they ever do replace it, it’ll be with a micro-dock connector or some other proprietary tech. I do think two 30-pin ports makes sense. From a UX perspective, the lack of a second dock connector is probably the thing I find most frustrating about the iPad. It’s a minor annoyance, but it annoys so frequently that I can see Apple addressing it.

New Case

The case will get an update, though it probably won’t be a dramatic one, like what we saw with the iPhone 4. Instead, look to the example of the iPod touch and the MacBook Air, arguably the iPad’s spiritual “parents,” for what’s coming next for the physical design of the iPad.

We’ll see a slimmer and lighter iPad, made possible by new tech introduced in the MacBook Air, including a low-profile camera unit and better battery tech. The aluminum back will stay, unless Apple’s patent for nitride coatings for stainless steel has already borne fruit, since that would allow better communication from the iPad’s various antennas.

More Power

The A4 powering will remain, but it’ll get a speed bump. We’ll probably see a 1.5GHz version, and we’ll definitely get at least 512MB of RAM to bring the iPad up to par with the iPhone 4. I’m thinking speed and performance will be what Apple focuses on to distance itself from BlackBerry and other competitors, since it has a head start in this arena with its own low-power mobile processor design.

The Best Mobile Screen Available

Another focus, and one that Apple will sell much more heavily to consumers, will be the quality of the display. Apple showed with the iPod touch that it was committed to bringing Retina Display technology to devices beyond the iPhone, and it won’t stop there.

Analysts are predicting a Retina Display in the iPad 2, and I agree. By the time the next version is ready for production, costs on the tech should’ve come down considerably thanks to lessons learned with the iPhone 4 and iPod touch, and I bet even with the size increase, there won’t be a problem with margins. Apple’s introduction of higher res screens in the MacBook Air is a good indication of where its priorities lie.

More Storage

Another inheritance the MacBook Air will pass on to the iPad 2 is greater storage capacity. As Apple boosts mobile storage to further its efforts with Apple TV and AirPlay, and as flash prices continue to drop, 128GB will be an option with the next lineup. More storage will also be important as more and more people opt to take their video files with them on the go.

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Apple Overtakes Microsoft in Market Value: End of an Era?

Darrell Etherington — Thu, 27 May 2010 15:03:19 +0000

Apple, for a long time, was the David to Microsoft’s Goliath. It was a dynamic that suited Apple, as the company used its underdog status to attract customers who saw themselves as different and apart from the mainstream. It was the iPod that first signaled a change in this arrangement.

The iPod dominated. It became synonymous with “MP3 player” in the mind of the buying public. And that would start in motion the rise of Apple into the tech giant it is today. A tech giant, might I add, that as of yesterday is worth more in terms of market value than Microsoft.

At the close of Wednesday’s trading, Apple was valued at $222 billion, while Microsoft was worth $219 billion. Apple’s shares ended the day at $244.11, while Microsoft’s finished at a seven-month low of $25.01. And it isn’t only Cupertino’s successes, but also Redmond’s failures that are responsible for the new power dynamic between the two companies. Overall, Microsoft stock is down 20 percent compared to 10 years ago, while the value of Apple’s has grown tenfold over the same period.

Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer appears to have his head in the sand regarding the significance of this moment in terms of the two companies. When asked for comment, he told Reuters news service:

It’s a long game, we have good competitors…we too are a very good competitor. We are executing very well and that is going to lead to great products and great success. I’m optimistic.

It sounds like Ballmer, once an outspoken and not very cautious CEO, has checked out, or is downright unwilling to look at the consequences of Apple’s success with the iPhone and now the iPad. Microsoft will continue to drift toward irrelevance as long as the attitude of business-as-usual prevails there. To quote Ballmer once again, “I won’t predict some massive change,” he said. “I don’t sort of foreshadow any change in direction. We just have to accelerate plans.”

I’m less concerned with what happens to Microsoft now, though, then I am with what happens to Apple. Unlike Microsoft, I think Apple has at its core a commitment to ongoing innovation, woven into the very fabric of the company by the strong oversight of Steve Jobs. And that will persist after he’s gone. But ongoing battles with Google and Adobe tell a tale of a company whose industry agenda may still be geared towards being a niche player.

Apple is about control, even though Steve Jobs says quite the opposite in his open letter to Flash. Don’t get me wrong, I’m no big fan of Flash myself, but I do think that Apple’s intentions have more to do with controlling the nature and delivery vehicle of content than with encouraging openness. Otherwise it’d have backed Google’s VP8 open web video standard from the start. The kind of control Apple exerts works well for it as a niche player, but now that it’s arguably the most important tech company in the world, the same rules don’t apply.

Big stays big by being inclusive and cooperative, to a degree. Take Google, which works with so many partners it’s hard to keep track of, with the end goal of satisfied customers in mind. Microsoft, too, works with others more than it shuts them down, as long as the terms are favorable. Apple seems content to remain largely sheltered, even when it would be easier and more expedient to work with a partner. In fact, since the company started making its own chips with the iPad, it looks to be shutting down even further still.

Such an approach may provide some short-term gains, but rising competitors like Google will take advantage of the general bad feeling it will generate among other tech firms to form the kind of partnerships that helped elevate Microsoft to its loftiest heights 10 years ago. And Apple will still be at base camp, stubbornly refusing the aid of other climbers.

Related GigaOM Pro Research: How Microsoft Can Win Back the Tablet Market

7 for 7: Last Chance Expectations and Predictions for the Apple Tablet

Patrick Hunt — Tue, 26 Jan 2010 17:45:01 +0000

This is the seventh and last in a series of 7 posts in the 7 days prior to Apple’s January 27 media event in which I explore various possibilities for an Apple Tablet and other potential announcements.

Well, here we are. One more day until Apple holds its Latest Creation event, when all the rumor and speculation about an Apple Tablet will be subject to scrutiny. I won’t be left out. Over the last seven days (including today), I’ve tried to give some thoughtful analysis about what to expect from Apple at tomorrow’s announcement, so you’ll soon know how successful I was. Instead of recapping the previous six days, which you can access here, I’m taking a different approach with my final predictions.

If I were to put myself in Steve’s shoes and outline a keynote for this event, I think it would look something like this.

Mobile: Today we’re here to talk about our mobile products, and we’ve got an amazing new product to share with you. I think you’ll be blown away.
Macbook: Record sales in the quarter, strong growth in consumer/retail and education, outpacing the competition. New models with faster processors, more memory, more storage, and more multi-touch. Available immediately.
iPhone/iPod touch: Crazy growth domestically and internationally. Far exceeding our wildest expectations. Totally reinvented the smartphone market. Massive market share and growing. New hardware models in June. iPhone: better camera, more storage, support for Verizon, same pricing. iPod Touch: camera, video, more storage, same pricing.
App Store: Billions and billions served. Here are some great examples (show a few including games and apps with hardware additions like Square). Really terrific developer community. We’ve let you down. Here’s how we’re going to do it better. More explicit guidelines about what we’ll approve and what we won’t. Decreasing lead times to get apps launched. Better communication with reviewers via new web tool including chat.
iPhone OS: Announcing new version. Better overall performance (speed + battery life), new navigation options (integrated homescreen, landscape view of icons, easier way to jump between apps), multitasking, streamlined settings management. Free upgrade for iPhone, $15 for iPod Touch. Available to developers today, consumers in June.
MobileMe: Over x millions of users. Great way to keep devices in sync, especially contacts and calendars. Innovative features like Find My iPhone. Expanding MobileMe to “your iLife in the cloud.” Store music, movies and photos by syncing with iTunes and iPhoto. Backup that can be accessed and streamed from anywhere. Now includes feature set of iWork.com, with browser-based editing of all file types. Available immediately.
iTunes, iPhone, Apple TV, MobileMe: Great ecosystem for accessing digital content. Complete rethinking of how they all work together. Easier sharing and seamless movement among devices. Software updates will being appearing soon.
Our Latest Creation: iPad tablet computer. 10″ multi-touch display, very thin, just one button. Feels great in your hand, believe me. Beautiful, isn’t it? Incredible way to enjoy digital content: movies, music and photos, but also ebooks and digital periodicals. Solutions for all sectors of publishing (show examples: NYTimes, People, Newsweek, textbook). Front-facing webcam for iChat video conferencing. Combo docking station + keyboard. New OS X based user interface. Apple Developer Tools (Xcode, etc.) + new emulator. Support for all existing apps, plus updated app spec to optimize for tablet. Available in March in two models: Wi-Fi only for $899, 3G data with 2-year contract with AT&T or Verizon.

If this prediction is even remotely close, Apple will have hit a home run. How will I do? Check back after the event for my 7 for 7 recap and scorecard to see how I did. In the meantime, here is the full complement of 7 for 7 posts.

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Apple Looking to Have Record iPhone Quarter: Report

Darrell Etherington — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 15:08:49 +0000

According to information gathered from parts suppliers for Apple’s iPhone 3GS, the handset is headed for a record quarter. Apple’s Taiwanese suppliers for the iPhone’s components have reported a 31 percent increase in volume of orders placed for the parts, which should indicate a very healthy spike in sales of the smartphone.

The report comes via Taiwan’s online tech industry publication, the DigiTimes, which has provided ample fuel for the rumor fire regarding various Apple devices in the past, as well as reporting on Apple’s business outlook. In the second quarter, the iPhone sold 7.4 million worldwide, but if DigiTimes’ information is accurate, total sales for the third quarter, which end in December for the Mac maker, could reach the 10 million mark.

Numbers are up all across the smartphone component supply industry, but according to information gathered by the Taipei-based market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC), much of that increase is due to Apple’s strong sales. Which isn’t to say that Apple’s competitors aren’t having any luck challenging its market dominance, according to MIC analyst Edward Lin:

Samsung is currently the largest supplier in the market, as it supplies for the Apple iPhone series models. However, TI, which has exited from the baseband business and now focuses on AP development, has rolled out the OMAP 3430 series, which adopts the Cortex A8 architecture and features a clock speed of 1GHz. This offers processor options other than Qualcomm, enabling terminal vendors to pair together different communications systems, and it has been well received by many brand-name vendors, such as HTC, Palm, etc. As a result, TI’s share in the Taiwanese smartphone AP market increased in the third quarter of 2009.

The ability to use different wireless communication standards is something that’s recently come up in rumors surrounding Apple’s next-generation device, and it looks like that rumor is well in keeping with the pulse of the industry at large. Perhaps it isn’t so far-fetched to imagine that the next iPhone could use both GSM- and CDMA-based networks, allowing it to be offered on Verizon in the U.S. Of course, then some of Apple’s commercials would become factually incorrect.

Regardless of what’s coming, third-quarter sales of 10 million is a huge win for Cupertino. Looking at recent developments, its easy to spot the source of this late-game success. Apple has opened up sales of its device to many more carriers at the international level, expanding into new territory in the UK, Canada and France, to name a few. It’s also finally gained official access to the massive Chinese market, which paves the way for a lot of potential success, despite early setbacks.

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Predicting 2010: iPod and iPhone

Darrell Etherington — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 21:31:19 +0000

The dawn of a new year never fails to make me excited about all the potential for new devices we’ll inevitably see released. This year is no different, and for Apple’s iPod and iPhone, there are some storms that have been brewing for quite a while that should break in 2010. Hope you packed a raincoat.

I recently came across my still functional (including decent battery life) 30GB iPod Video while rooting through my drawers looking for a proprietary USB cable. After I charged it and booted it up, the palpable feeling of the HDD platter spinning up, and the faint sound that accompanies said action reminded me of just how far we’ve come, and of how far we’ve yet to go with Apple’s portable devices. Here’s where I think we’re headed next.

The iPod

It’s long been the linchpin in Apple’s lineup of product offerings, and it deserves eternal respect for the role it had in reversing the company’s fortunes, but the iPod no longer enjoys the place of highest favor among Apple products, mobile or otherwise. I predict, as a general trend, a continued downplaying of the iPod’s role at Apple, and significant changes to the products on offer as a result of that trend.

Video Comes to the Touch

Probability: Guaranteed
The evidence all but guarantees that video is meant to come to the iPod touch sooner or later, and I predict it will be sooner, rather than later. Tear-downs of the most recently released iteration of the touch revealed a space perfectly designed for the same camera guts found in the new iPod nano, so unless Apple is just very interested in toying maliciously with Apple rumor hounds, this one is basically in the bag. It doesn’t hurt that it’s the next logical step for the rising star of Apple’s iPod lineup.

iPod Classic Gets Retired

Probability: Possible
It’s served long, and it’s served well, but the HD-based iPod Classic is not long for this world, in my opinion. Apple’s already streamlined the Classic to a single available model, and as the price of flash memory begins to trend downwards again in 2010, I think they’ll do away with the beast altogether and focus on turning Classic customers into iPod touch devotees.

Touch-based Control Returns to Shuffle

Probability: Possible
One of Apple’s most questionable decisions made in the service of sexy design is the loss of any and all buttons on the iPod shuffle. I think it will respond to mixed reviews and consumer skepticism by returning some form of manual (ie. non-voice) control to the device itself. That doesn’t necessarily mean buttons will return, if they can figure out some way to make use of the multi-touch tech it’s so clearly in love with.

Nano Gets Incremental Video Upgrades

Probability: Guaranteed
Look for the iPod nano to get steady improvements in the quality of its video camera, and in what you can do with said video on and off the device. Apple’s made its big changes to the device, and will now move into what amounts to a holding pattern in which it upgrades the upgrades it’s already introduced. And consumers will continue shelling out with each bump up.

The iPhone

Predicting where the iPhone will go is a bit more challenging than making calls about the iPod lineup. The upgrades made with the 3GS were logical enough, since many of them amounted to putting things in that should probably have been there in the first place.

The Usual

Probability: Guaranteed
There are the standard upgrades to be expected with any new model. These things include storage bumps (64GB next time around), improvements to the camera and video recording (bump up to 5 megapixels possible, but by no means a sure thing), and improvements to the processing and graphics rendering capabilities of the iPhone. They’re boring and we know they’re coming, so let’s not waste time on this.

New Look

Probability: Possible
The iPhone is incredibly recognizable, and that probably had something to do with the reason the 3GS still has the same distinctive look as the 3G. Other probable reasons include a rushed roll-out, and more emphasis on internal changes. I think next time around, we’ll be treated to a new look, and I wouldn’t exclude the possibility that we may have already seen some early prototypes of this design change.

Better Peer-to-Peer

Probability: Guaranteed
The future of mobile tech is in peer-to-peer interaction between devices. Apple knows this, and that’s why it opened up Bluetooth interaction between devices when it released iPhone 3.0. I think Apple will make further efforts to make P2P experiences technically better and more seamless in the next update. That might come via improved Bluetooth, or using the recently revealed Wi-Fi Direct tech that Apple’s thrown its support behind.

Physical Keyboard

Probability: Absurd
No. Just kidding.

The Big Picture

Flash-bang upgrades will all go to the iPhone, while the iPod line will get natural but relatively small and less showy enhancements. The reason being, Apple is using the iPod touch and its brethren to herd consumers towards the iPhone, which is the real cash cow and the better bet for long-term investment.

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Munster Answers 14 Questions No One Was Asking

Liam Cassidy — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 18:00:09 +0000

Good old Gene Munster. He’s just obsessed with Apple, ain’t he? In a note yesterday to clients, and reported by AppleInsider, Munster answers 14 “questions” about Apple that cover such topics as its iPhones, iPods, Apple TV, Retail Stores, AT&T partnership and more.

In short, it’s nothing we haven’t heard from him before, but just in case you haven’t been keeping up with Piper Jaffray’s Senior Analyst this year, here are the highlights.

AT&T

Munster predicts AT&T’s exclusive deal with Apple will end next year, allowing the iPhone to be sold by other carriers. He cites the end of Apple’s exclusive deal with French carrier Orange. “For various reasons the company moved from an exclusive relationship with French wireless carrier Orange to a multi-carrier model,” he says. Well, I wouldn’t exactly describe it as “various reasons,” Gene, the reason was made quite clear. The Competition Council in France deemed the five year exclusivity deal unfair and cut it (and all similar future deals between carriers and hardware manufacturers) to a more competition-friendly three months.

But hey, “various reasons” sounds more knowledgeable, I suppose. Don’t forget, he’s a Senior Analyst.

No Cheap iPhone

Munster predicts there won’t be a sub-$99 iPhone 3G offering from Apple any day soon because the company is not interested in competing with the $10 basic cell phones that dominate markets like India. Call me an old cynic, but did we really need an analyst to tell us this? Here, try this: I predict that Apple isn’t interested in offering a sub-$500 MacBook because the market is swamped with $299 offerings from manufacturers of small form-factor PC notebooks. There. That sounded good, can I be an Analyst, please?

Television on iTunes

From AppleInsider’s article:

In his report, Munster also believes that Apple is dissatisfied with the current status of video content offered in iTunes. Specifically, he said the video store is lacking HBO and is often tied to limited movie availability periods.

“We believe Apple is unhappy with the current status of video on the iTunes Store and is working to change it,” Munster said. “These changes, however, will take time, in the form of lengthy negotiations, in order to bring the rights for TV and movies up to speed in a digital world.”

Really, if you look at Apple’s track history with the iTunes store, this is hardly a clever or enlightened insight. Apple has, over the years, struggled to provide a decent selection of TV shows in the iTunes store. It’s a struggle that perfectly mirrors the same difficult journey Apple took getting music from the major record companies into the store in high quality, without the crippling DRM limitations the labels stubbornly clung-to.

In 2008 during his keynote at Apple’s September 9 “Special Event,” Steve Jobs declared that NBC shows were “back in iTunes.” They’d been absent for almost a year, since, the previous December, NBC pulled its content from iTunes over a pricing dispute.

It was obvious there had been a lot of wrangling between Apple and the broadcaster. It’s just as clear today that, as the television industry continues its relentless descent into death, and Apple continues to push for more content to be made available in iTunes, such wrangling will continue. Broadcasters still don’t “get” the Internet. The same way record labels didn’t.

Again, we didn’t need Gene to spell this out. But he did it anyway. He’s generous like that.

Subscription TV Services

I covered this fiction prediction earlier in the month, but it’s fun to see Gene’s still pushing his pet theory about Apple’s planned subscription television model. He believes it will be such a rewarding and complete service, customers will have no need to pay for cable television. It’s natural to ponder how, without a cable account and the broadband services it includes, customers will go about streaming bandwidth-intensive HD television over the Internet. But surely that’s a technical question for engineers, not something a Senior Analyst needs to worry about.

Munster says:

“…we believe Apple has wisely avoided a subscription music model, as music listeners prefer to listen to their own music, and listen to it frequently. Movie watchers, on the other hand, prefer to rent, and typically only want to see a movie once or twice. Likewise, TV viewers are not accustomed to purchasing TV shows on an a-la-carte basis, and a subscription TV service would likely be more appealing.”

I guess this is one of those times when we just have to trust Munster knows what he’s talking about. For the record, I completely disagree with his assertion that customers only want to watch a movie “once or twice.” I treat movies and television shows in exactly the same way I treat the music I own. I buy them so I can enjoy them again and again. But that’s just a matter of opinion, and I have to assume Munster’s claims are backed up with solid market research.

I’m being critical, but it’s fair criticism. Munster (and analysts like him) are paid to make predictions about companies, market trends and the like. But I can’t help feeling these guys are graduates from The School of Stating the Bloody Obvious. We can all do it, and many people do so in their blogs and podcasts without getting paid for the pleasure. They certainly don’t have their ruminations disseminated in the world’s press.

If you read TheAppleBlog regularly you know that, when it comes to a company as secretive as Apple, we often have no choice but to make predictions and deliberate on the probably, possible and preposterous. I just wish Munster’s predictions were not so inclined to swing wildly between utterly banal (‘predicting’ Apple will release ‘something new’ in the next year) and the entirely unlikely (predicting Apple will release an actual television next year that will replace customer’s monthly cable bills).

Why not try your hand at being a Senior Analyst and share your predictions with us in the comments below! Go on, it’s fun!

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Is an Apple HDTV a Realistic Possibility?

Darrell Etherington — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 20:30:17 +0000

Lately, there have been some murmurs that Apple is prepping an HDTV of its very own. Such a device would seem to be the logical next step for the evolution of Apple TV, the progress of which seems to have become somewhat stagnant of late.

Like our own Liam Cassidy, Michael Wolf over at GigaOM Pro isn’t convinced (subscription required), for a few very good reasons. For one, he cites the high price tag and lack of subsidization, by comparing it to AT&T’s iPhone arrangement:

TVs would not have any such subsidization, nor would they have the fairly attainable prices of the iPhone (any Apple television would likely carry a price tag of $2,000 or more), putting it out of reach for many households.

Of course, that could be offset by a deal with a cable/satellite provider, but I think Apple’s FCC headaches over their relationship with AT&T will have them squeamish about such partnerships for a while to come.

What do you think? Will there be an Apple HDTV? What price point and features would make such a device attractive to you?

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Reading Between the Lines: Some Takeaways From Apple’s Q1 2009 Conference Call

Darrell Etherington — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 18:00:14 +0000

Apple’s quarterly earnings call is primarily a retrospective affair. They report their numbers for the previous quarter, discuss strengths and weaknesses (and what made them strengths and weaknesses), and spend a little bit of time talking about how they plan on continuing and repeating success next time out. In the end, the only clear message they present is that they’ll keep doing what’s working, and improve on what isn’t. At the same time, they’re dropping hints about the future. Here are some of those hints, and what I think they mean.

We Love the $199 Price Point

On the subject of iPhone pricing, Tim Cook, Apple COO standing in as CEO while Jobs is recuperating, made clear that their $399 and $199 price points were working well for the company. Quite specifically, he emphasized the company’s love for the $199 price point, which is clearly leading to high sales numbers. Interestingly, he didn’t talk about storage size, just pricing.

We could see a pricing move based on strong sales and a shrinking consumer smartphone market that may result in a $199 price point for the 16GB iPhone to stimulate sales. Whether this also leads to a lower cost 8GB phone or a 32GB model, I can’t guess, but we will mostly likely see a pricing change when sales start to dip.

We Have Some Ideas, But Right Now We Think Those Products Are Inferior

The netbook saga/flirtation/denial continues. They’re spot on about the hardware deficiencies when they point out that the keyboards on these devices are still too small, and about the software not being well-tailored to the platform as of yet. Which shows that they’re thinking much more deeply about those issues than the offhand remarks would seem to suggest.

Make no mistake, Apple is developing a device for this space. And they’ve targeted the specific issues their competitors have so far failed to address, which means they probably intend to come to the market late but with a superior product. This could be the reason they sought to separate “OS X” from the “Mac” moniker, if they’re preparing a version of the OS specifically designed to run on netbook hardware.

We Feel Extremely Good About Our Product Pipeline

This comment was made in reference to their projections about iPhone seasonality. They also made a followup comment noting that Apple has fear in terms of the danger of the economy affecting smartphone adoption, considering the higher monthly rates that come with them.

References to the product pipeline in this context are extremely tantalizing. What does Apple have in its pocket to offset the threat of smartphone contract prices? Two possibilities come to mind. Either they think that upcoming iPhone iterations will be impressive enough to attract consumers anyway, or they’re planning on moving away from the smartphone market to take advantage of lower contract costs. In either case, references to product pipelines should not be taken lightly.

That’s my take on some of the more salient points of the Q1 conference call, the content of which I reviewed thanks to CNNMoney’s transcript of their live blog of the event. You may think some of my predictions are reaching or far-fetched, but they all come from an analysis of the context within which the statements were made. Whether you agree with me or not, share you own interpretations below.

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It’s Time to Cast Your Macworld Expo Predictions

Nick Santilli — Thu, 27 Dec 2007 22:23:16 +0000

In just a little over 2 weeks us Mac geeks get to have second Christmas (or Hanukkah or Kwanzaa or …) When Steve Jobs takes the stage to offer the first of his two major Keynotes each year. (Otherwise dubbed, ‘Stevenote’ by super Apple nerds.) There are likely to be some exciting new hardware announcements and maybe even some new software if we’ve been extra good all year.

After a friend started asking for my thoughts on what to expect, it got the obsessive compulsive (Apple) portion of my brain going. All day long I have been contemplating my buddy’s question, and just as I convince myself of one thing, I begin rethinking the possibilities again. So, based on little more than logic and hope, here are some of the things I think we might see on January Fifteenth.

Updated Displays – It’s been years since the current form factor came to light and there haven’t been any real changes to the line. I think built-in iSight cameras is a no-brainer at this point. Think we’ll see anything larger than 30″? I wouldn’t be shocked if Apple went nuts with a 42-incher…
Slimmer MacBooks – My feeling is this will affect the lower end of the notebook line, and not affect the Pro series ‘books. However I suspect the MacBook Pro line will see some spec bumps.
A Sleeker Mac Pro – With today’s technology getting smaller and smaller, I’d be surprised if the Mac Pro doesn’t begin to shrink somewhat in size. I know it needs room for its eleventy cooling fans, but c’mon! This isn’t based on any kind of information whatsoever, just a thought I had. Maybe it was a dream.
Revamped Apple TV – This is a super long shot. But seeing as this product is sort of the red-headed step child (no offense to all the RHS children out there) of the current line of Apple products, they could do well with a major overhaul of the box. I don’t put a lot of stock in this one, but why not throw it out there just in case?
One Last Thing – 3G iPhones available now. This isn’t my expectation, but rather that of my friend. (He really wants to wait for a 3G iPhone.) I feel it’s too early for the 3G to come available – I would think they would wait at least until the iPhone SDK is available to hype that angle, but what do I know? Still, that would be pretty sweet. (Should this happen, look for a decent drop in Edge iPhone prices.) Other enhancements to the forthcoming 3G iPhone? I think onboard GPS and at least a bit larger HDD are musts…

So there’s my list. Maybe it’s totally off base, but I’d be jazzed about some announcements like that. Who knows – maybe a brand new mystery device will instantly drain millions of nerds’ wallets… What do you think? Got any of your own predictions for the upcoming Macworld Expo?

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