Two Sub-$1000 Notebooks

The entry-level 11.6-inch MacBook Air, without upgrades, costs $999. That’s Apple’s second laptop under $1000, including the $999 MacBook. Offering two models that cost less than a grand provides more options for buyers looking for affordability. You no longer have only one choice from Apple if you’re looking for a sub-$1000 notebook.

The MacBook has a better processor and better battery life than the MacBook Air, but it has the same amount of RAM, same graphics card, and uses a traditional HDD instead of flash memory. Aside from a little more speed, and battery life that may or may not actually be better (Apple has new testing methods, announced last week) there isn’t much to recommend the MacBook over the air.

Apple’s entry-level consumer notebook is due for a refresh. In the past, it’s gotten an update in October alongside the rest of the Mac line, but this time around, Steve Jobs clearly wanted the focus to be firmly on the new Air. This Apple ultraportable will own the holiday shopping season.

But a new Apple MacBook is due soon, by spring 2011 at the absolute latest. And when it does arrive, it’ll be Apple’s ticket to a much broader Mac user base.

Apple Learns to Make More for Less

It may seem like Steve Jobs is being sarcastic whenever he issues one of his “We don’t know how to make a good [product x] for [price y]. When we do, we’ll let you know” decrees, but he’s actually revealing exactly how Apple pursued product development. Apple tries to hit lower price points for its products, it just doesn’t cut corners to get there, as do some of its primary competitors.

Apple has little to gain by pitting its two sub-$1000 laptops against each other. Instead, we can see a new, lower price point for the next iteration of the MacBook. Prices on Macs have been steadily dropping, as we’ve seen with the latest MacBook and MacBook Air. At this point, considering the price of components, how far Apple’s gone in terms of refining its manufacturing processes, and how much better of a negotiating position it holds with suppliers, there are few barriers to a $799 MacBook. And a sub-$800 Apple notebook will a huge hit with consumers (not to mention enterprise users) who’ve been priced out of a purchase till now.

Product Cannibalization?

But wait, what about the iPad? The most expensive iPad is $829. Won’t a cheaper MacBook mean fewer iPad sales? The answer is probably not. The sales data in Apple’s latest financials reveals that consumers look at the tablet as a supplemental device, rather than a notebook replacement. If people aren’t getting the iPad instead of a new Mac notebook, then logically, they wouldn’t buy notebook instead of an iPad, either. Especially if iPad prices fall, as some predict.

I don’t know whether Apple really will put in flash storage and take out optical drives in all of its next MacBooks. Maybe a few years from now, yes, but there are probably still a significant number of users out there who aren’t as willing to leave the past behind as prospective Air buyers are. No, the defining feature of Apple’s next MacBook will be its price tag.

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So, who actually got to sell the iPad? Here’s my scorecard.

Campus Bookstores

I predicted that Campus Bookstores would be able to sell the Wi-Fi iPad and not be able to sell the iPad 3G. I assumed that the activation and choice of a data plan would be complex and therefore would need some kind of personal assistance. I was wrong. Activating a 3G iPad is no harder than setting up an iTunes account. Everything is handled either via iTunes or the built-in iPad settings. Apple made buying a data plan so easy, sales staff was not required. That leads me to my big blunder in predictions.

AT&T Stores

If a device worked on the AT&T data network, one would assume they’d sell it at AT&T stores. Oops. From informal chats with AT&T sales staff, they make commission off phone sale plans. Since Apple made choosing and activating a data plan so easy and eliminated contracts and penalties, sales staff wouldn’t get commissions. Why sell an iPad 3G when there are so many more profitable devices and plans to sell? My prediction was based on AT&T selling a variety of PC-based netbooks that are included with data plan contracts. Apple is trying to distance itself from the netbook market and I’m sure would not allow the iPad to be sold along with any other device.

Apple Specialists

I get half credit for this prediction. Yes, Apple specialists got to sell the iPad. From talking with multiple Specialists, the rules and procedures to sell the iPad were incredibly specific. Apple dictated the displays, the language used to describe the iPad, as well as the marketing requirements. I have yet to see a website of one of these companies actually mentioning they have the iPad. The first weekend I was at a store that sold an iPad and heard an employee being chastised for using the word “click” instead of “tap” when referring to opening an application. Apple wanted the experience with “iPad” to be “magical” and “revolutionary.” In fact, Apple never puts the article “the” in front of iPad. Upon chatting with that same chastised employee, he explained that iPad is more than a product — it’s an experience. One does not refer to “the” love, but rather one is in love. One cannot simply talk about iPad without experiencing it. That grammatical anomaly leads me to my final prediction.

The Rest of the “Indirect Channel”

An iPad must be experienced, it can’t easily be bought from afar. While Apple must sell iPads on its website, I believe it didn’t allow catalog resellers to sell the iPad directly on their websites because it wanted complete and total control over the iPad experience (since I don’t work for Apple, I can put an article in front of “iPad”). While some resellers got to sell the iPad, it appears Apple didn’t allow direct orders from any website but Apple’s. Places like MacMall and CDW have the iPad listed on their site, but you “must call” to order. Amazon did not get to sell the iPad. I’m not sure if that was because it doesn’t have a strong telephone sales division, or simply Apple didn’t want to sell the iPad along with the Kindle.

Because Apple did not differentiate sales of the iPad Wi-Fi and 3G, those resellers that list the iPad on their website generally list both versions.

My Score

Not good. My two critical flaws were thinking that somehow the Wi-Fi and 3G versions could be sold under separate channels. Apple’s easy activation made it possible to sell the iPad just like any other device. Unlike any other Apple device, though, Apple wanted direct control over the experience, which limited sales over the web or advertising by Apple specialists.

Latest Prediction

Once everyone understands that the iPad is not just a “big” iPod touch or an iPhone that can’t make phone calls, Apple will allow a wider distribution of the product. Holidays 2010 could see the iPad at more traditional retailers who currently sell the iPod. Having the iPad at Walmart positions the iPad keenly against the netbook market.

Allowing the indirect channel to sell iPads was an experiment by Apple to control a new product experience. Could non-Apple employees be trusted to sell such an important product? I believe the next version of the iPhone will need a wider distribution and will be sold by those resellers that were given authorization to sell the iPad. That means again you could skip the wait in line at Apple or AT&T stores. This cuts into AT&T’s ability to upsell on their phone plans, but does set the stage for resellers to be able to sell an iPhone that’s carrier-agnostic. They’ll sell the AT&T and the Verizon (if it happens) iPhone alongside each other. Or again, I could be completely wrong.

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iLife X

Probability: Guaranteed
When the last version of iLife launched, it adopted the moniker “iLife ’09.” Recently however, Apple has modified most of its website to drop the date from the title. Now simply called “iLife,” I wonder if Apple will be quick to release a new “yearly” iteration at the outset of 2010.

Based on previous versions, the next iteration of iLife will require Mac OS X 10.6. By requiring Snow Leopard, this does make iLife an Intel-only release. Though some users will be left behind, significant performance gains should be recognized by taking advantage of 64-bit technology included in Snow Leopard.

Within the apps themselves, I believe we’ll continue to see significant updates. Here’s the roundup.

iPhoto

Probability: Possible
The addition of Faces and Places to iPhoto ’09 was just the beginning. The next version of iPhoto will support more accurate facial recognition and integration with Twitter. Those who enjoy the photo slideshow themes that were added to the last version will enjoy a larger selection of new themes that will be added in the new version. I also predict that the next version will bring support for bulk renaming of files (similar to how Aperture can do this upon import) and better performance when dealing with larger libraries. I also predict revised or better photo editing controls with additional effects.

iMovie

Probability: Possible
I believe the next version of iMovie will boast support for posting videos directly to more Internet services, such as Facebook and Flickr. An expanded set of new themes as well as more advanced title options will be present as well. The user experience of the application will be refined, for those who are still frustrated by the intense switch from iMovie HD to the last two versions.

iDVD

Probability: Guaranteed
iDVD will likely see one of the most significant updates that it has ever seen in quite a while. 2010 will mark the beginning of new ways of enjoying media. From the possibility of the first out-of-the-box Blu-ray drives on the Mac to iTunes Extras & LPs to the elusive Apple Tablet, the presentation of digital content remains a key focus for Apple.

The next version of iDVD will help push this agenda forward, allowing users to create Blu-ray discs or optimize their video content into formats like iTunes Extras. Such a dramatic update would likely warrant changing the name of the application, but that’s also within the realm of possibility. iDVD has definitely been late to the party for the past two years, seeing only small maintenance updates. While many speculate that Apple plans to axe DVD creation altogether (foreseeing the death of the digital disc in favor of digital distribution), I believe Apple has been working on a successor application to take advantage of new forms of distribution (a la Blu-ray or iTunes Extras-styled media).

iWeb

Probability: Possible
iWeb is one of those apps that is difficult to pack full of compelling new features every year. I predict the next version of iWeb will support more themes and a few more widgets, including a widget that provides a live feed of your Twitter stream on your website.

GarageBand

Probability: Possible
GarageBand will likely see an expanded music lesson store with more artist lessons and lessons for drums and bass. I also predict Apple will make it easier to share GarageBand creations beyond iTunes and iWeb. Similar to the other apps, I believe we will see support for exporting to other web services such as Facebook or YouTube.

iWork X

Probability: Possible
I predict the biggest improvement to the iWork suite will be a tighter integration with the iPhone and iPod touch. On the short side, I see iWork.com coming to the iPhone as an app to allow quick browsing of documents. In an ideal world, Apple will eventually build lightweight mobile versions of its iWork apps to allow users to create and edit Pages, Keynote and Numbers files on the go.

I believe we’ll see an update to the “beta” of iWork.com, including a paid plan if Apple deems the project a huge success, or inclusion with MobileMe if Apple feels the product isn’t strong enough to stand on its own footing.

All three applications will see new templates and a refined Inspector palette. It seems very un-Apple like to mandate users bring up a palette for colors, a separate one for fonts, another for media and yet another master Inspector to control everything else. Additionally, I predict the Media Browser will be updated across all apps to support Faces and Places from iPhoto.

I also predict Pages will provide support for (or perhaps work directly with) third-party applications like bibliographic software such as Endnote or Refworks for academic publications.

iTunes

Probability: Guaranteed
iTunes is an interesting application as every version seems to bring about a large number of extra features that many people don’t expect, or at first glance, really need.

I predict the next major version of iTunes, iTunes 10, will bring support for syncing with the mythical iTablet, as well as better syncing support (including over the air syncing of content if on a Wi-Fi network). Furthermore, iTunes 10 should feature better support for managing larger libraries of content and the need to split those libraries across multiple hard drives in a simple but effective manner.

Conclusion

Finally, I’d like to see iWork and iLife dropping in price back to the familiar $49 from years past. In light of economic conditions and Apple’s vocal attempts of providing quality products to more and more users, a price drop seems wise as it would also help generate better market penetration.

Again, many of these predictions are pure speculation and hopes and dreams on my part. What do you think we’ll see in these areas over the coming year?

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January 2010 will mark the four-year anniversary of Apple’s first Intel-based Mac, the MacBook Pro. With Snow Leopard officially dropping support for PowerPC Macs and the next version of iLife and iWork likely to do the same, a perfect storm is brewing where Apple can begin to really push OS X to maximize the potential of the Intel hardware it supports. 2010 looks to be a big year in terms of hardware updates from Apple; here’s our roundup of predictions on what’s to come.

MacBook Pro

Just like where it started four years ago with the first Intel Mac, the biggest and most exciting updates will happen to the MacBook Pro. The good news? With the classic MacBook seeing updates recently that peg its specs a little too close for comfort with its older brother, the new MacBook Pro update should arrive sooner rather than later.

In terms of processors, I predict Apple will adopt the mobile variant of the Core i5 and Core i7 quad-core processors currently found in the latest iMacs. Though these mobile variants, also referred to by their codename Arrandale, only feature two cores, they also come laden with Intel’s better-than-previously-integrated-but-not-quite-as-good-as-a-standalone graphics chipset. Rumor has it that Apple isn’t a fan of this implementation (as right it shouldn’t be, desiring a dedicated professional graphics card for its high-end portable). How this will shake out is still a mystery.

For the past three years, Apple has followed a steady trend of doubling both the entry-level amount of RAM and the maximum RAM that its high end portables can support. It’s a great tactic on Apple’s part as it combats only incremental performance gains with every new processor release. 2010 should be no different, with standard models of MacBook Pros shipping with 8GB of RAM with a ceiling of 16GB.

The big news for the MacBook Pros will be the inclusion of the first Blu-ray drive. It’s been a long time coming but Apple is ready to go for it and ready to do it right. Blu-ray Superdrives will be available as an option (if not standard) on the 15” and 17” MacBook Pros.

Taking advantage of the brilliant resolution of Blu-ray, the 15” MacBook Pro will also feature a gorgeous 1920 x 1080 resolution display, packing the same number of pixels as the new 21.5-inch iMac and the current 17” MacBook Pro. Of course, this also means the 17” will get a display bump as well. 2560 x 1440 seems like a bit of a stretch, but one can always hope, right?

In regards to storage, I predict we’ll see MacBook Pros starting with 500GB hard drives on the low-end 13” model and maxing out at 1TB or 1.5TB hard drives on the high-end 17” model. Before the year is out, the high-end models might even have an option for a 2TB drive.

MacBook Air

The MacBook Air, due to it’s ultra slim and lightweight profile, will only see modest updates in 2010. Processors will be bumped to 2.26GHz and 2.53GHz (up from 1.86GHz and 2.13GHz). Hard drives on the portable will see modest size increases to 250GB SATA and 256GB solid-state drives. The next iteration of the MacBook Air will also ship with 4GB of RAM standard. Though it will be difficult for Apple to upgrade the processors, hard drives and RAM while still maintaining a profit, the price point of the MacBook Air is in a sweet spot at the moment that Apple doesn’t want to disrupt.

As a completely outlandish prediction, I predict that Apple will also release a standalone external USB Blu-ray drive for MacBook Air users and legacy users who wouldn’t mind the accessory. Price point? I’m betting $299.

MacBook

Everyone’s favorite little portable recently saw an overhaul just a few months ago. For 2010, the MacBook specs will tend towards the current MacBook Pro offerings. Standard RAM will increase to 4GB (though this may remain the max for this model) and the portable will ship with either a 320GB or 500GB hard drive as standard.

Mac mini

The Mac mini will likely see modest processor increases (2.53GHz on the entry-level and 2.6GHz on the high-end) as well as 4GB RAM and 320GB hard drives standard. Build to order options will include 1TB drives and the Mac mini with Snow Leopard Server will ship with two 1TB drives. I also predict that Blu-ray drives will be a build-to-order option as Apple is starting to recognize the importance of the Mac mini in the living room as a more robust alternative to the Apple TV.

iMac

The iMac saw a nice update in 2009 that shifted the aspect ratio of the displays from the Apple-familiar 16:10 to the more HD-familiar 16:9. As such, the entry-level iMac is capable of displaying 1080p video, if only there were a source to play it. Similar to the MacBook Pros, I also predict the iMacs will receive built-in Blu-ray drives on the high-end models, if not standard across the entire line. The iMacs will also see a shift towards the quad-core Core i5 and Core i7 chips reaching clockspeeds similar to the current Core 2 Duo iMacs (a little over 3GHz). A subsequent update later in the year could bring about even faster processors in the neighborhood of 3.2GHz to 3.5GHz. 8GB of RAM will become standard on these Macs with the ability to upgrade to 16GB if desired.

Mac Pro & Xserve

There is still life left in the Nehalem architecture as the Core i9 “Gulftown” processor will make its debut in these high-end Macs at some point next year. Manufactured on a highly efficient 32nm die, this six core processor will boost a clock speed of around 2.8GHz and outfit the Mac in both single and dual processor varieties. This essential “12-core” MacPro or Xserve will feature 8-10GB of RAM as standard and a maximum ceiling of 64GB of RAM. You don’t have to take my word for it though, just start saving pennies now.

The Elusive iTablet

And saving the best for last, we arrive at the iTablet. While many constantly peg Apple’s unreleased tablet as occupying the space between the iPod touch and the MacBook, I predict it is between the iPod touch and MacBook of 2010, not 2009. As such, I predict the iTablet to function like a Mac and run OS X. I predict the tablet to utilize an Intel Core 2 Duo processor around the 2GHz mark. Personally, I feel Apple will disappoint many if the device functions more like an iPhone (in terms of hardware specs, besting out the 3GS 600MHz processor with 256MB of RAM). While I wouldn’t expect the tablet to function as a workstation for heavy video rendering, Apple has shown a history of utilizing hardware that can pack a punch and really maximize the OS. I predict the tablet will feature between a 7” and 10” screen (personally I’m leaning towards the latter, despite rumor sites). The iTablet will also feature support for 802.11n for fast streaming of content like iTunes Extras across your local network, support for Screen Sharing for remotely administering other Macs and the ability to connect to an external display through a micro-DisplayPort connector. I also feel the iTablet will ship in two versions, differentiated by storage size (like every other Apple product ever) and feature a solid state drive like the iPhone and iPod touch. Though the iTablet may not feature a screen with high enough resolution for HD, I do believe it will support playback of HD video through an appropriate video out connector.

What’s Left?

Rumors of Intel and Apple co-developing LightPeak technology are becoming more commonplace and I predict we’ll see some announcement related to this in 2010. This high-speed optical connection might be essential to products like the iTablet that would benefit from its singular connection for power, data transfer, and HD video output. Or perhaps the technology could become employed in MacBook Pros, allowing use of one LightPeak connection to an iMac that provides power to charge the laptop, video signal carried to the iMac’s display and audio carried to the iMac’s internal speakers.

The white elephant still remaining in the room is of course Apple’s Display lineup. With a 24” LED display and a 30” display that barely beats the resolution of Apple’s new 27” iMac, I predict Apple will definitely be refreshing its display lineup. In particular, I expect the price of the 24” LED Cinema Display to drop to $699 and a new 27” LED Cinema Display, matching the same resolution as the iMac (remember, it’s 16:9, not 16:10) to arrive at $1299. I also predict Apple will introduce a new, high-end 32” LED display at $1799, the price point of the current 30” display.

All of these predictions are merely speculation, based on Apple’s history, rumor sites and published roadmaps from companies that Apple sources components from. While this article solely represents my opinion of what could be around the corner in 2010, I’d love to hear what you think or would like to see. Share a comment or two with your thoughts!

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APC today is suggesting that the recently released (just yesterday, in fact) low-cost quad-core processor from Intel, the Core 2 Extreme Q9000, might have something to do with Apple’s hold out. That’s right, the theory is that Apple could be prepping its first quad core notebook using the chip, which, as APC points out, does work out well on paper, if you consider the chip’s price point and Apple’s apparent acceptable margins. For the sake of comparison, consider that Acer has already announced a gaming laptop with a $1,799 price point using the chip.

At this point, the theory is just that, a theory, based on the timing of Intel’s release and the continued presence of an old machine at the top end of the MacBook Pro line. It is, however, a sound theory that holds up to scrutiny. The timing couldn’t be more perfect for a Macworld announcement, and it’s impossible to conceive that Intel didn’t tip its hand to Apple earlier about this development, and the timeframe for its release. The new price point of the quad core processor would allow Apple to stay under the dangerous $3,000 mark.

Apple could also be planning to offer multiple models, splitting the 17-incher into two basic configurations, one with a dual, and the other with this new quad core chip. That would account for the rumors that circulated before Macworld that internal Apple pricing sheets were showing more models than were released at the October event. Taken together, all the clues lead me to believe that we’ll almost certainly be seeing this in the flesh (in the aluminum?) come Macworld.

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