Apple CEO Tim Cook said during his company’s recent earnings call that iPad sales haven’t really been affected by the Amazon Kindle Fire, which is no doubt contributing heavily to the success of Android tablets. It’s also likely the Barnes & Noble Nook Color and Nook Tablet are included in the Android figures. Instead, Cook admitted the iPad has had some cannibalization effect on sales of Macs, and he predicted that one day, the tablet market will be larger in volume than the PC market.

Compared to Android, Apple still has a dominant position in the tablet market, with a 57.6-percent share compared to Android’s 39.1 percent, according to Strategy Analytics’ most recent numbers. In terms of year-over-year growth, the tablet space has grown by 150 percent between the end of 2010 and 2011. In other words, even if shares were more evenly split, the iPad would still be seeing big gains in unit sales.

The PC market, on the other hand, contracted by around six percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, according to research firm Gartner. That’s despite 20 percent growth by Apple’s own Mac line of computers. Kevin Tofel recently pointed out here on GigaOM that half of computing device sales are now mobile. If the trend of growing tablet and smartphone sales continue, and PC sales continue to decline, we’ll soon be in a position where mobiles are considered a primary device by the majority of users.

Apple will continue to sell iPads. A new refresh expected in the coming months might even help it turn the tide of slipping market share, since while the low-cost Kindle Fire may be a success, other Android tablet makers still seem to be having a hard time putting out a product consumers can get genuinely excited about. Kevin wrote last week about how Android 4.0, while it improves the Android tablet experience, still has a lot of glaring pain points. Also, Android’s tablet-specific app library lags considerably behind Apple’s, and isn’t catching up anywhere near as fast as the market on the smartphone side.

The companies putting out Android tablets that fail to achieve the Kindle Fire’s level of success are the same ones being hurt by the slowing PC market, and they’re the ones that stand to lose the most. Amazon’s Kindle fire has reportedly sold as many as 6 million units through the end of 2011, according to estimates, which would make it the world’s best-selling Android tablet.

Apple continues to appeal to a steadily growing audience of tablet users, but Amazon is answering the call of those who were happier buying bargain-priced netbooks for their basic computing needs, rather than spending more on an iPad. That’s the market PC makers should have been trying to retain with their own tablet efforts, and also the one Amazon has positioned itself best to appeal to.

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According to ABI’s calculations, iPads make up 68 percent of the tablet market, although depending on who you ask, that number could be even higher. Regardless, the iPad makes up at least more than two-thirds of the tablet market, so when that market sees 13.6 million sales during the 2011 summer, most of the benefit goes to Apple.

Netbooks, on the other hand, aren’t benefitting from the tablet’s rise. During the same period in which 13.6 million tablets were sold, only 7.3 million netbooks made their way into consumer hands.

Netbooks maintain popularity in developing countries, where their inexpensive price tags and general compatibility with Windows software and files make them useful as a primary computer, but in developed nations where a lot of the consumer power lies, iPads and tablets are much more appealing to shoppers hungry for the next big thing. Tablets better suit the role of a secondary device, too, since they’re more portable and easier to get up and running quickly in cramped quarters, while commuting, for example.

The iPad has long shown signs of toppling the netbook, but now it’s really putting up the numbers to prove it. Will the iPad (and other low-cost tablet options like the Kindle Fire) ever kill it completely, or can the two formats coexist peacefully?

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PC shipments in the U.K. for the second quarter of this year were only 2.5 million units, a decline of 15 percent compared to the year before, and Western Europe saw an even more precipitous decline of 18.9 percent year over year, with a total of 12.7 million shipments. Mobile PCs were the hardest hit with a 20.4 decline overall, and mini-notebook shipments (which includes netbooks) dropped a whopping 53 percent in Western Europe. France and Germany also saw big downward trends in PC sales, with 17.8 and 13.3 percent declines overall, and 49 and 43 perent drops in mini-notebook sales.

Click to see data from other European markets at Gartner.

Samsung saw the best growth in the U.K. market by increasing shipments 5.2 percent. Apple was the only other top vendor to see positive growth there, with a one-percent increase in shipments in the U.K., and a 6.4 percent gain in France.

Gartner notes that this data does not include mobile devices like tablets or smartphones, and that’s likely a considerable factor in the overall declines. It’s a pattern we’ve seen developing over the last few months all over the world, with the PC and tablet sectors’ growth trajectories moving in opposite directions.  It’s particularly telling that mini-notebook sales are suffering the biggest losses, since Apple’s iPad and other tablets are seen to be filling that gap for a lot of consumers, and in some cases replacing traditional PCs. The iPad is leading the way in this shift: While Apple still lags behind competitors in overal unit sales in the PC space, once you include the iPad it takes the lead.

Meike Escherich, an analyst with Gartner, doesn’t think this is a trend that we’ll see reversed anytime soon, either. “This quarter’s results highlights the ongoing weakness of consumer demand, and could indicate a structural change in the market that threatens to continue in the near future,” she said.

That should be a wake up call for PC manufacturers trying to get in on the growing tablet market: If they can’t ship mature devices with strong software at prices that consumers find attractive, Apple will soon occupy an even more dominant market position in consumer computing.

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Netbook Demand

Survey respondents who said they planned on buying a netbook within the next 90 days dropped drastically over the course of the past year. It accounted for 20 percent of laptop-buying consumer’s intentions in Oct. 2009, and now represents only 14 percent. Netbook demand has been dropping steadily since its peak in June 2009.

The iPad fills the hole many were looking to fill with a netbook, specifically, that of a portable device for web browsing and media consumption. Pricing on the iPad is comparable to higher-priced netbooks, and Apple’s introduction of the MacBook Air should reel in consumers who want the portability of a netbook with a little more power, and have slightly larger budgets.

iPad Demand and Satisfaction

ChangeWave found iPad owner satisfaction among respondents to be very high; 72 percent replied that they were “Very Satisfied” with Apple’s tablet, while another 23 percent said they were “Somewhat Satisfied.” The next largest group, representing only 3 percent of those surveyed, answered that they either didn’t know either way.

Going forward, the prospects are good for the tablet market: 26 percent of all respondents say they’re planning a purchase in the future. Apple will reel in the majority of those customers, if current sentiment remains the same; 80 percent of those likely to buy a tablet are planning to get an iPad. RIM’s PlayBook is the next closest in terms of anticipated demand, with 8 percent of respondents choosing the BlackBerry solution.

Double Advantage

The iPad’s success in the survey shows it has two major advantages over its competitors. First, it’s far and away the first thing consumers are thinking about when considering a tablet computer purchase. Second, its very high customer satisfaction means that once customers do opt for an iPad, it will take a lot to convince them to switch device makers for future purchases.

Apple is sitting pretty atop a market that should show a lot of growth in the coming year. Whatever the future brings from the competition, it’s very unlikely Apple won’t emerge the winner once again in 2011.

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iPad LapDock Prototype

LapDock and Clamcase look like they both had the same idea at the same time: convert the iPad into a netbook/slate hybrid, and get the best of both worlds. The idea is genius, and the execution, from what we can see so far, looks great, but are the two products trying to fit a round peg in a square hole?

Two things come to mind when looking at the these cases: one, the iPad is all about the touch interface, and two, bluetooth keyboard support is not fully baked yet. After using the iPad for a couple of weeks, the conclusion I come to is that hardware keyboard support was an afterthought. Many of the normal features of a keyboard do not work, and the bluetooth keyboard is missing a few of the special keys that the Apple keyboard dock has. It’s hard to say, without using the case, if it will turn out to be awkward, if the iPad will be easy to pop out of the case, if the iPad’s screen will be protected from the keys on the keyboard when the case is closed, or how heavy the case will be. Both the LapDock and Clamcase seem to want to shoehorn the new paradigm of the touch computer interface into the old familiar one.

That’s not necessarily a bad thing. We are at the beginning of the wave of new world devices, a wave that has not nearly begun to crest yet. The keyboard has been used as an input device for decades, so finding a middle ground between the new world of touch screens and the old world of the touch typist is a reasonable objective. Apple has made a similar admission by including support for hardware keyboards in iPhone OS 4.

The real test of any new product is answering the question “What problem does this solve?” For me, the answer is simple, if I had the Clamcase now, I would have typed out this article sitting on the couch with my iPad in my lap, instead of at the table.

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Netbook sales apparently peaked last summer, when its growth rate reached an impressive 641 percent increase from the  same time the previous year. Since then, it’s been trending downward, though punctuated with some comebacks and maintaining impressive growth overall. Then in January of 2010, things start to go downhill fast, with a dropoff from 68 percent growth that month to only 5 percent in April of 2010.

So what’s the iPad have to do with anything? Apple’s category-spanning device was announced in January of 2010, you may recall, and it was released the following April. Considering that that period perfectly intersects with the netbook’s most significant growth drop-off to date, it’s hard not to see the two as causally related. Especially when Apple moved 1 million iPad units sometime in there, counting pre-orders and sales of the device since its release.

This is only anecdotal, but I’ve seen a number of friends put their Dell hackintoshes up for sale following the iPad announcement and release, in most cases explicitly because they don’t need their little Frankenstein monster anymore now that Apple’s provided its own affordable ultraportable. As a side note, it’s probably a good time to grab a cheap, lightly used hackintosh Mini 9 or 10v if you’re in the market.

It isn’t just the netbook’s sales growth slump that points towards the iPad’s success over those devices, either. In a survey conducted in March, 44 percent of those polled claimed that they were buying the iPad instead of a netbook or notebook PC. And if that same survey is any indication, the iPod touch is next.

41 percent of those polled said they were planning on buying an iPad instead of Apple’s marquee media player device. It can’t really be a surprise to the company, since the price gap between the two isn’t really that significant and you get so much more (screen real estate, connectivity) for your buck with the iPad. My own theory is that Apple intended this, and will try to swing the pendulum back by introducing an iPod touch with camera before doing the same six months later with the iPad.

Will the iPad kill the netbook? I hope so, but I think that device was doomed regardless of whether or not an iPad-type device came around to finish it off. Will it kill the iPod touch? That’s another story altogether, and one that I think will depend heavily on how much further Apple can push the iPhone in terms of market saturation. In theory, I can see the iPad and iPhone squeezing out the iPod touch as the markets of those two more versatile devices expand. What do you think?

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Small Laptop Price Premium Dynamic Turned On Its Head

I agree, and along with Magid note the irony of a changing dynamic where, reversing erstwhile conventional wisdom that computer consumers would be obliged to pay extra for the required engineering of miniaturization, with smaller laptops often costing more than larger siblings of the same brand (think PowerBook Duo vs. PowerBook or MacBook Air and MacBook), netbooks have turned the cost/weight equation on its head.

Mainstream netbooks, particularly ones equipped with the latest Intel Atom N270 processors running at 1.60 GHz, with a GB of RAM and a 160GB hard drive, are perfectly adequate for most common tasks people use computers for such as Web surfing and e-mail, and even for watching web video. At least for non-touch typists, their usually undersized keyboards are also considered tolerable.

Downward Pressure On All Laptop Pricing

Then there’s the netbook phenomenon’s collateral effect of exerting strong downward pressure on standard sized notebook computer prices, to which even Apple has not been immune, as exemplified by the 13″ MacBook Pro being cheaper than its aluminum unibody MacBook predecessor, and the debut of a lower entry level 15″ MacBook Pro stripped of its ExpressCard Slot and discrete graphics processor/VRAM.

A prima facie topical example is Lenovo’s new ThinkPad Edge, which has a 13-inch display, a typically excellent Lenovo full-size keyboard, an AMD Athlon dual-core processor, 2GB of RAM, a 320GB 5400 RPM hard drive, three USB ports, runs Windows 7, offers five-hour real world battery runtime, and is priced starting at an easy-on-the-wallet $599. Move up to a 1.3GHz Core Duo Intel processor and 4GB of memory and you’re still at $799.

That’s of course only $200 less than Apple’s entry-level MacBook, which at $999 has a much more powerful 2.26GHz Core 2 Duo processor and Nvidia 9600M 9400M integrated graphics, but only 2GB of RAM, a measly two USB ports, and a 250GB hard drive. To get the same 4GB of memory and 320GB of storage specs as the $799 Lenovo or even a $399 Dell Inspiron 15, you’re up to $1,149, while a comparable spec MacBook Pro will set you back a whopping (by comparison) $1,399 — a thousand dollars greater than your typical netbook.

Mac Still Greater Value, But Gap Narrowing

Now personally, I still think greater value is found in the Macs, especially due to their OS X-clusivity, and projected durability over the longer haul, or if you need the extra processing and graphics power they offer. But, with PC competition stiffening, and consensus building that Windows 7 is actually a pretty decent operating system, the OS X advantage is diminishing. That base AMD-powered Lenovo ThinkPad Edge for $600 bucks looks particularly enticing for cash-strapped or value-oriented users whose computing power needs are typically modest, especially in this challenging economy

That’s why I continue to stubbornly contend that the forthcoming iPad notwithstanding, Apple still needs a conventional clamshell notebook contender in the $600 – $700 price category.

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The Register’s Tony Smith notes in a report that the last 12 months have been good for netbook makers, who cumulatively shipped 30.2 million of the mini laptops in that period. According to market watcher Strategy Analytics, that’s 79 percent more than they moved in 2008 and amounts to 50-60 percent of total portable PCs shipped and around 17-20 percent of PCs sold overall.

The researcher also forecasts further growth this year as netbook chips deliver more performance and ARM licensees take on Intel’s dominant Atom platform.

The iPad notwithstanding, I’m still convinced that Apple has fumbled the ball in not offering a netbook. If it can sell an iPad for $500, I deduce that a netbook with a clamshell form factor, a real keyboard and trackpad, plus ideally a low-powered Intel Core CPU, decent connectivity, and capability to run the real Mac OS, should be eminently possible at an entry-level price of $600-$650 — at which I contend it would be a strong seller. It’d certainly be a machine that would appeal to me much more than the iPad does in its announced configuration.

Chinese Knockoffs

A knockoff outfit in China is showing the way, having released a tantalizing example of the potential for a truly appealing Apple netbook, if Apple were inclined to play ball. The Chinese tech industry-watching blog M.I.C (ie: “Made-In-China”) has posted a review of what it calls “the ultimate MacBook Air knockoff” — the best MacBook Air wannabe ever, featuring a real glowing Apple logo and a form factor almost as thin as the real MBA — which M.I.C. thinks is possibly the most beautiful product the Chinese knockoff makers have ever copied. I’m inclined to agree.

Of course it’s not really a Mac, and OS X is not supported. It is a PC netbook in ersatz Mac clothing, powered by the latest version of the ubiquitous 1.66GHz Intel Atom N450 CPU with 1GB of RAM (upgradable to 2GB RAM at a modest additional cost of $180 RMB), a 160GB hard drive, a 13.3-inch (1280 x 800) LED-backlit display and a swappable 4-cell battery, plus 802.11b/g/n Wi-Fi, and, get this — selling for only $1,900 RMB (about $280). To say it’s much more affordable than Apple’s real MacBook Air is an extreme understatement.

The M.I.C. reviewers say typing is a pleasure on the MBA knockoff’s full-sized keyboard, and there’s a spacious trackpad too, although it doesn’t support multitouch technology.

Connectivity-wise, the knockoff netbook is somewhat less challenged than a real MacBook Air, with two USB 2.0 ports rather than the MBA’s one, a mini-HDMI port, and one headphone jack, but you also get an Ethernet port and a SD-card slot — not bad at all for a $280 laptop. There’s also a webcam along with an infrared detector beside it.

The downside cited is noise, with the fan reportedly running almost nonstop during basic operation, which would be tiresome, especially if you’re fan noise-averse like me.

As far as I can tell, these units aren’t likely to ever make it to North America as it’s a given that Apple Legal would have a lot to say about it. But if they were available, I don’t think I could resist. It looks like a great little inexpensive solution for taking on the road, and possibly running Ubuntu or Puppy Linux on instead of Windows.

How about you? Would a machine like this appeal? More pointedly, don’t you wish Apple would build a netbook Mac like this?

The day is upon us, and if you’ve been to Apple’s homepage, like I have, you’re no doubt already disappointed. The sales today limit themselves to accessories only, and even those aren’t that impressive. There’s nothing even close to a real, deep discount. The good news is that everything in the Apple store ships free between now and December 23, including all small ticket items.

Apple’s Deals

As for the deals themselves, hardly any seem to have wide-appeal. Here’s a quick rundown:

• Monster Beats by Dr. Dre – Regular $299.95, on sale for $269.95. Not a bad price, and the new white ones are pretty slick.
• mophie Juice Pack Air (Red) – Regular $79,95, on sale for $71.95. It’s only the red version, but if you’d like a bit of a discount on the black one, Amazon has it on sale for $3 off.
• L.A.M.B. Bags – Tote was $399.95, is now $359.95. Ultraviolet 13-inch sleeve was $199.95, is now $179.95. Ultraviolet Gadget Bag was $99.95, is now $89.95. Considering these are basically uglier versions of incase products, designed by Gwen Stefani and marked up, I’d take a pass. Especially on the “Gadget Bag,” which won’t fit any actual computing device and seems to be a glorified pencil case.
• Vestax Spin DJ – Regular $249.95, on sale for $224.95.
• Eye-Fi 2GB Geo SD Card – Regular $59.95, on sale for $53.95. This is the one thing I’d consider buying, since Eye-Fi Geo is an exclusive Apple store product and it would go great with my new Canon. Not a great discount, but better than nothing.
• LaCie Starck 500GB USB Drive – Regular $139.95, on sale for $125.95.
• MoGo Talk for iPhone - Regular $129.95, on sale for $116.95.
• Hello Kitty Air Jacket for iPhone 3GS – Regular $39.95, on sale for $35.95. The four-dollar discount was enough justification for me to pick this up as a gag gift for my girlfriend, so something good came out of this cyber monday.

Better Deals Elsewhere

If you want to do some real Apple shopping this Cyber Monday, take a look elsewhere. Mac Mall, for example, has some pretty great discounts on actual Apple computers, including 25 percent off the more expensive MacBook Air model, and 10 percent off current generation iPod touch models.

My favorite Apple-related Cyber Monday deal? Dell’s offering the Mini 10v netbook for $279, after $119 in instant savings. That’s not much to spend for what remains probably the best hackintoshable netbook out there, even despite Apple’s latest attempt foil at-home modders by removing Atom support in Snow Leopard.

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PowerBook Duo: A hint of things to come?

PC Mag’s Sascha Segan posed an intriguing question the other day: “If you put a smartphone in a dock, it could replace a netbook. So why hasn’t anyone succeeded at doing that?”

Good question.

Now that I’ve been thinking about it, the idea of a dock into which you could pop an iPhone or an iPod touch, thereby quickly connecting it to a decent-sized external display, keyboard and mouse, some USB ports, Ethernet, and maybe an SD Card slot, you would have, if not best of both worlds, at least an attractive hybrid.

A dockable smartphone/Internet computer would no doubt cost more than a PC netbook, but it could also be much more versatile, and arguably a better overall value.

Indeed, external input device support over Bluetooth alone would make handhelds much more appealing to me. As Segan observes, with “65,000 apps for the iPhone alone, it’s hard to believe that there aren’t thousands of people who would want to use those apps with a nice big keyboard and screen.”

Of course, to make a docked iPhone or iPod touch truly competitive with the netbook segment, it would require driver tweaking and some re-engineering to support the necessary hardware inputs and outputs. There’s also the issue of what Segan refers to as “the OS problem,” specifically: The iPhone OS as presently configured is not really up to the job of supporting the kind of robust productivity apps that can run on a netbook under Linux, Windows, or OS X.

I’ve long been a fan and admirer of the Apple PowerBook Duo concept from the early to mid ’90s. It combined a subcompact laptop module that could be used as a freestanding notebook, and a Duo Dock with a full-size CRT monitor, a full set contemporary of I/O ports, and internal expansion slots for desktop power with few compromises.

Toward the end of the ’90s, laptop computers became powerful, versatile, and gained improved connectivity and display options. Many of the the Duo’s advantages were negated, but it seems to me quite logical that the PowerBook Duo concept could be successfully updated, using a handheld instead as its “core module.”

Indeed, it’s so logical that it seems a wonder no one has yet acted on the idea. Segan thinks the reason is that Apple and the wireless carriers don’t want it to happen. Presently, folks who have both a smartphone and a netbook need two wireless service subscriptions, whereas our proposed dockable handheld hybrid device would theoretically only require one. As for keyboard-supporting iPhones, he thinks that won’t happen because Apple doesn’t want to erode MacBook sales.

All that sounds a bit conspiratorial, but also lamentably plausible. Even so, look at the issue from the angle of a similar new product category. While Microsoft has a complicated relationship with the netbook phenomenon, and Apple is downright contemptuous, consumers voted with their wallets and made the netbook the hottest-selling category in computers. Now that the dam has burst as it were, Microsoft is playing ball with the netbook-optimized edition of Windows 7.

I think platform convergence and rationalization between the smartphone and netbook spaces could likewise catch the consumer imagination and take on a life of its own. It seems just too good an idea to be able to keep suppressed indefinitely.

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Source: Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster believes the rumored Apple tablet will be much more than a lifestyle product for the presbyopic generation. Instead, Munster expects as many as two million tablets could be sold in 2010, generating an estimated 1.2 billion in revenue.

Via Apple 2.0, Munster’s latest research also predicts a 2010 release. “Last week we spoke with an Asian component supplier that has received orders from Apple for a touch-screen device to be fulfilled by late CY09.” While this supports earlier reports, the most recent suggested timeframe is 2009.

As for the tablet itself, as the mock-up suggests, Munster apparently believes a giant iPod touch is in the offing. The tablet will be designed for media consumption, web surfing, and text tasks, like simple email. Pricing is expected to be in the $500 to $700 range, considerably less than previous estimates of $800. The tablet will likely have a 3G data plan, possibly subsidized, carriers being AT&T or Verizon. All this makes Munster bullish on the tablet, “While at first glance this may appear to address a niche market, we believe the addressable market is larger than that of the Apple TV, of which Apple sold about 1.2m in its first year.”

And this is where we stop the prediction train and get off. That last bit about 1.2 million Apple TVs being sold is, like much of this research note, speculation. Sales numbers for the Apple TV have never been released (not a good sign). The only official commentary on sales came during the first quarter conference call this year when Tim Cook stated that “unit sales were up over three times versus the year-ago quarter.” Three times what has never been established.

However, a comparison to the Apple TV is relevant to the tablet as a cautionary tale. Sadly, by refusing to add a DVD player or streaming options from services like Netflix and Hulu, the Apple TV languishes as nothing more than extension of the iTunes Store in the living room. If the Apple tablet turns out to be a giant iPod touch — hopefully better looking that that horrid mock-up — it risks being nothing more than extension of the App Store. That’s not as bad as the Apple TV, but the tablet could do better.

One rumor we have not heard anything about is whether the tablet will allow a Bluetooth keyboard. If so, an entire category of functionality would be added, from emails of more than a few sentences to papers and reports pages long. In your hand it’s a tablet, in a stand it’s a word processor. While there could be a risk of cannibalizing MacBook sales, it seems small. Assuming the tablet runs iPhone OS, the current limitations of the operating system would ensure the safety of MacBook sales.

The question whether the Apple tablet will truly be an alternative to the netbook or a giant iPod touch will likely be answered soon. One can only hope the reply can be typed.

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With 2009 half way over, we’ve seen a lot of updates from Apple, from new portables to new iPhones and some hot new Pro Apps, but several sections of Apple’s product lineup have not been updated in quite a while.

Products such as the Apple TV, some software titles, and others are getting a bit long in the tooth. We know our mainstream products like iPods will see an update in the next few months, but what about some of the others? What’s the deal and what could be in store?

Apple TV

Apple TV, the little iPod for your television, has not seen a hardware update since 2007 when Apple introduced a larger 160GB model. Though there have been price cuts since then, and the introduction of the “Take 2” Apple TV software, the device itself really has not seen any updates since its introduction.

Originally referred to as the fourth leg on a four-leg stool (according to Jobs, referring to Apple’s product lineup), it has since been relegated to a “hobby” and now something that hasn’t seen much attention at all. The hacking community has provided a number of plugins and add ons to allow additional functionality, but Apple has only offered small software updates for compatibility with the Remote app or other products (new AirPort base stations, etc.). The device itself runs a variation of Mac OS 10.4! With the release of Snow Leopard, will we see any updates? Apple calls it a DVD player for the 21st century. I’m quite sure a DVD player for the 21st century involves Blu-ray, so where’s the love?

Aperture

The last major version of Aperture (version 2.0) was released in February 2008. Though small updates have been released to provide support for newer camera models, Apple’s own consumer application iPhoto ’09 boosts features that make some Aperture users jealous. Face recognition and geo-tagging support are two such examples that blur the lines between those who might want to use Aperture versus iPhoto. (Aperture of course has a much different market, aiming to compete with Adobe Photoshop Lightroom, but still, users do feel a bit left out.)

When Aperture was originally introduced, it was quite a performance hog. To be fair, however, at the time, most Macs were Power PC based. The switch to Intel processors as well as newer versions that included more optimized code allowed for a better experience. No doubt the introduction of Snow Leopard will also bring about further performance improvements to Aperture as well. The question remains though, after Snow Leopard launches will we see new software in October, or will we have to wait until a more appropriate time next year?

As an aside, I do recognize Apple just released new versions of Logic Studio and Final Cut Studio, but in all the fanfare, nothing has been mentioned about anything Snow Leopard specific. With all the “oohs” and “ahhs” of the performance features Snow Leopard is supposed to bring, one would think there could be several areas where these titles could take advantage.

Displays

Wow. Where to start with this one? Of all the Apple products that seem to carry an “Apple tax,” the displays rank among the highest. Rightfully they should as they are really high quality products. That being said, Apple has silently discontinued both their 20” and 23” displays, opting to replace them both by a very expensive 24” LCD display. The cream of the crop 30” display is only briefly mentioned on Apple’s website with a link to its online store. Where does the future of its displays lie? The mini DisplayPort can handle the high resolution of the 30” Cinema Display, so providing Apple could actually create an LED equivalent, it should be compatible with all of its latest products.

On the entry level side, $899 is still a hefty price for the smallest display. Looking at the iMacs, these displays are still CCFL based (cold cathode fluorescent lighting). This could explain why the LED Display is pricey compared to an entry level iMac which features a slightly smaller display but also a whole computer inside.

Another consideration for displays is the resolution they support. The 17” MacBook Pro features a high resolution 1920×1200 display that is LED-backlit. That resolution is equivalent to the resolution of the 24” LED display and looks really good, considering it’s packed into a display that is seven inches smaller.

Apple desperately needs a smaller entry-level display to replace the now defunct 20” Cinema Display, and the entire lineup could benefit from supporting a higher resolution all around.

Good Things Come to Those Who Wait

These are just a few examples of products that haven’t really seen great updates lately, but history has taught us that Apple always comes through and woos its fans.

My question to you, the readers, is this: Do you think that Apple has been allocating all of its resources into completing Snow Leopard and the iPhone 3.0 launch? Or, do you think the neglect that some of these other projects have seen is because Apple has been focusing its development efforts on some as-of-yet unannounced new product, like the rumored tablet? We’ve seen some great new products this year, but even the latest versions of Logic Studio and Final Cut Studio aren’t entirely revolutionary. They didn’t even garner a media event.

My personal opinion is that this is the case and Apple has been working to complete Snow Leopard and the iPhone 3.0 OS, but has been focusing a major portion of its team on something we don’t know about yet. Remember what Steve always says: When the economy is rough, Apple’s solution is to innovate its way to success. Please share your thoughts in the comments below!

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A few weeks ago my dad had some pretty hefty surgery. All told, the surgery itself was seven hours long, and by the time I left the hospital it was almost a 14-hour day. He was in the hospital for almost a week and by the end of his stay, one thing had become very clear: my iPhone had become the command center for my life and had squashed any thoughts I’d ever had of getting a netbook.

I’m not saying I don’t think there is a market for a device that’s larger than an iPhone but smaller than a MacBook — heck a few years ago when I was covering E3 for the gaming industry, I’d have loved a small device I could sit in a corner of the show floor and could bang out copy on. While researching this article, I took a gander at the Dell Mini 10v (the spiritual successor to the Dell Mini 9, only with a 120GB drive and larger keyboard with standard key placement) and had a few minutes of drooling and fantasizing about a small laptop to write on during lunch, or a “throw it in my bag and not worry if it gets stolen” laptop before closing the web page and muttering, “Really, Crumpy, what the heck are you going to do with that? This could be another $300 device that sits in a corner.”

All Things Are Not Equal

It’s not a fair comparison to plop an iPhone down next to a hacked Dell Mini running OS X and proclaim them the same. However, while a netbook is a list of pros and cons when compared to a full-sized laptop, the iPhone is as well when measured against a netbook. For, me, though, the trade-offs are worth it.

I have a Whitebook as my primary computer. When Dad was in for surgery I had planned on working remotely on Elizabeth (all my computers are named from characters in Young Frankenstein) from the waiting room. With the amount of SMS messages, Twitter updates and e-mails I was sending out to concerned people, I ended up just moving files I was reviewing over to the iPhone and just worked off that. Since the iPhone had become Central Command that day, I could cut and paste updates very easily to the different mediums. It also helped that the work I had brought with me was a PowerPoint file I was reviewing and I could flip through that just as easily on the iPhone.

I’ve also found that, while I’m comfortable using my laptop on a desk, or propped up on a lap desk in bed, using it on my actual lap isn’t very comfortable. By contrast, as odd as it may seem, I was very comfortable working on the iPhone in the uncomfortable chairs in the waiting room. I certainly wouldn’t want to work eight hours on it, or do a heavy document revision, but, for flipping through a deck while SMSing, Twittering, and emailing, it was fine.

Being Productive

“This is a one time deal,” I thought to myself on the way home. “There’s no way I’m going to view the iPhone as anything resembling a laptop/netbook substitute.” Over the weekend, while spending lot of time watching Dad sleep, I’d crack open Elizabeth and try and work on articles. A combination of the glare from his window, more uncomfortable chairs, and the bustling of the nursing staff made the laptop difficult to use. I downloaded QuickOffice to try out, and before I knew it, most of my article on Macs in the Enterprise was written. I was amazed how productive I was for the task at hand — roughing out a blog post.

Really, though, I shouldn’t have been. Since the day I got the device, the iPhone has become more central to my life each and every day. While it doesn’t have a decent-sized keyboard, a large screen, or the ability to do complicated tasks, the iPhone does have two things going for it no netbook has: an always-on Internet connection at no extra fee other than my standard AT&T cell/data package; and the ability to fit easily in my pants pocket.

Comfort and Convenience

For me there are the two sweet spots: the always-on Internet and small size. I’m willing to accept the limitations of the platform. While most of my posts for TheAppleBlog and my personal site pass through the iPhone in some fashion, the WordPress web interface on the iPhone isn’t responsive enough to do the final edits and submit it — especially if there are graphics involved. For just creating content, I’ve had great success. More than a few paragraphs of this article were written on QuickOffice waiting for elevators and cafeterias to open. If I needed to finalize more articles remotely, that might tip the scales towards a netbook.

Until recently, I’ve always thrown my MacBook in the bag with me as I head to work. Unfortunately, using my personal Mac as my primary computer stopped being cute and was generating some serious issues for Corporate so I’ve had to stop using it. As more and more of my data and life exists in the cloud, combined with the ever-present connection the iPhone has to the Internet, I’ve started thinking twice about undocking Elizabeth and bringing her with me. I use Evernote on all my computers so I can tag and have access to all my notes regardless of what computer I’m on. I use Culture Code’s Things on the iPhone and OS X to manage my to-do lists. I use Google Sync to keep my calendars synced through the cloud between iCal and the iPhone, and use the web interface at work to quickly add entries. Since QuickOffice can read from an iDisk, I’ve started thinking of getting a MobileMe account just so I can work off the same version of a document from any computer.

Portability Isn’t a Big Issue for Me

I don’t travel enough to enjoy the benefits of the ultra-small size of a netbook. As I said earlier, if I were still covering gaming conventions where carrying around the a full-sized laptop all day would be grueling without a sherpa to lug the thing, or flying enough to want to work on the tray table, I’d be ordering a Dell Mini 10v and Hackintoshing it in no time.

Granted, It’s Not Perfect

That’s not to say everything has been lollipops and rainbows. The iPhone is a closed device with no native file management. The advantage to QuickOffice is I can grab files off my iDisk (iDisk or Dropbox syncing across multiple computers is the one remaining temptation I have for a netbook). Getting files onto the device is often a multiple-step process, and I might need to think ahead and identify key files I’d need access to without the cloud. Also, the screen really is too small to have any sort of reference material up — I play D&D every Friday with my friends, and it’d be nice to have a small device I can read reference materials from.

These quibbles are minor, though. With my iPhone I can write, surf the Internet, e-mail, watch movies, manage my life, and play games from a device that fits comfortably in the front pocket of my pants. Major, long-form work is done on Elizabeth. Anything netbook-sized to me feels like one of the beds Goldilocks rejected.

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From the Associated Press, IDC analyst Bob O’Donnel notes that “people are focused on $600, $700 notebooks. Guess what Apple doesn’t have: any notebook below $999.” Looking at the numbers for the U.S., which accounts for roughly half of Mac sales, would seem to confirm the theory that netbook is surging.

Source: IDC

Via Yahoo! Finance, IDC reports Apple’s market share for the second quarter at 7.6 percent, down from 8.5 percent last year. Still, that’s better than Dell, which is undergoing restructuring that looks a lot like demolition. In stark contrast, both Acer and Toshiba showed double-digit gains in market share due almost exclusively to netbook sales. Looking at the estimates from Gartner, the numbers are a little better for Apple.

Source: Gartner

Via AppleInsider, Gartner estimates Apple market share at 8.7 percent, a slight uptick from 8.5 percent last year. Again, Dell is in free fall compared to the relative weightlessness of Apple, and HP. Acer rockets on, while Toshiba will almost certainly blast past Apple next quarter, unless Apple introduces a MacBook mini.

Don’t count on it.

At last quarter’s conference call, Tim Cook reiterated Apple’s position on the netbook.

When I’m looking at what’s sold in the Netbook market, I see cramped keyboards, junky hardware, very small screens, bad software. Not a consumer experience that we would put the Mac brand on. As it exists today, we’re not interested in it nor would it be something customers would be interested in the long term. We are looking at the space. For those who want a small computer that does browsing/email, they might want an iPhone or iPod touch. If we find a way to deliver an innovative product that really makes a contribution, we’ll do that.

What Cook didn’t say, but what also bears repeating, is that netbooks have cramped profits, too. Both Dell and HP have reported margins impacted by cheap portables cannibalizing higher-priced models. Apple’s margins are in the range of 30 percent, so there will be no MacBook mini, alas.

However, that “space” Cook refers to is almost certainly the perpetually rumored tablet, currently predicted for an October launch. While rumors also suggest a price around $800, it seems much more likely Apple would be looking to fill the gap in its lineup between the multitouch devices at $200-$400 and the Macbook at $1,000. This would put it at the price point O’Donnel mentions, $600-$700. If this turns out to be so, Apple’s market share in PCs will continue to stagnate or decline, at least as long as IDC and Gartner define what a PC is. With the advent of multitouch devices and the App Store, clearly Apple has other ideas on what the personal computer will be.

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Do I have $800 to spend on yet another Apple device that bridges the (relatively small) gap between my iPhone and my 13-inch MacBook Pro? Not really. But if rumors prove true and this October does indeed see the launch of a small tablet device priced in that area coming out of Cupertino, I will be hard-pressed not to find an excuse to pick one up. In my dream of dreams, such a device would also be Wacom penabled, but Apple rarely seems to take into account my opinion when designing new products.

Regardless, I’m probably better off earmarking that $800 as pretty much spent, according to new reports from Chinese tech news site Info Times. The site, which is renowned for reporting rumors and leaks on the supply chain side of Apple’s operations, is now saying that the tech giant is set to begin actual production on a 9.7-inch touchscreen device, aimed at competing with the netbook market. $800 is still a far cry from the $300 to $400 most basic netbooks will cost, but who’s counting?

The suppliers who’ve received orders from Apple for parts for the device are the usual suspects, including Foxconn, Wintek and Dynapack. Rumors have long been circulating that Wintek has been tapped to provide screens around 9.7-inches in size, so if nothing else, this latest rumor is at least consistent with previous ones. No other details about the device are made specific in the article, including whether or not it will also have some kind of keyboard, what OS or software it will use, or what kind of hardware specs it will have under the hood.

Let the wild guesses begin. For my part, I think Steve Jobs & Co. must have something fairly out of the ordinary in mind if they want to release an $800 device to compete in a market that really tops out around $500. Jobs once remarked that Apple didn’t “know how to make a $500 computer that’s not a piece of junk, and our DNA will not let us ship that,” but will consumers see the $300 worth of value-add that goes into this new device, should the rumored price point prove accurate?

I think that Apple is probably counting on establishing a new device category rather than competing with the netbook market. Basically, it looks to me like it wants to recreate its success with the iPhone by porting the same incredibly versatile software platform to a device more suited to browsing, video playback, and touchscreen gaming. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was compatible with some kind of keyboard peripheral, which would give you maximum portability with the option to add girth, along with productivity enhancement should you need it. With 3G-capable netbooks popping up in deals with U.S. wireless providers, I wouldn’t be surprised if Apple announces a similar partnership to offset the high cost of this tablet, either.

It will be hard for Apple to thread the needle, so to speak, on a device which arguably fits into a very small niche in its existing line of offerings, but the company has been known to tap unexplored markets before, so we’ll have to wait and see if it can pull it off yet again.

Photo courtesy of flickr user factoryjoe.

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Apple Announces Netbook! That’s the headline you wanted to see, right? That’s the headline that industry analysts and so-called experts believe Apple must have in order to remain relevant in today’s economic climate. That’s also the headline you’re not likely to come across unless it happens to be April 1.

“It’s not a space we’re interested in,” according to Steve Jobs, and a few others at Apple. At least one site run by a reputable Mac journalist claims to have first-hand knowledge that a netbook does indeed exist deep inside Apple’s headquarters, but goes on to back up what we’ve already heard: It’s a prototype, and it’s just not going to ship.

The truth is, Apple already has a netbook on the market, which they’ve been selling for quite a while now. It’s called the MacBook Air. It’s a powerful, good-looking notebook with a full-sized keyboard, spacious 120GB hard drive, and a 13.3-inch, backlit LED screen. It’s capable of running a full version of Mac OS X Leopard, iLife, iWork, and Microsoft Office at full speeds, as well as light-duty graphics work in Adobe Photoshop.

Compare that with most sub-$600 netbooks currently on the market, which run some obscure distribution of Linux, or cripple-ware known as Windows XP Home, and you start to see why netbooks aren’t all that appealing for many people. Not to mention, the standard LCD screens fall in the 10-inch range, the touchpad is practically guaranteed to wear out from excessive scrolling, the keyboards are 80 percent of “normal” size for people with Barbie doll-sized hands, and hard drives are smaller than your standard iPod.

And let’s talk about power. The MacBook Air features a full Core 2 Duo processor, while most netbooks are running an Intel Atom or Celeron processor that barely outperforms my digital watch in modern-day tasks!

Do you really want a netbook?

When I ask around to friends and colleagues about why they bought a netbook, the answer was always the same: “It was small and cheap.” But when I ask them what they thought of it outside those two factors, I didn’t get much in the way of positive comments. Tiny screen, hard to type on, cheap-feeling hardware, and junkware were a few of the descriptions I heard. I thought perhaps this was due to the fact that most of these people weren’t terribly computer-savvy folks, but apparently it’s more widespread than that.

According to this report from The NPD Group, a leading market research firm, only 58 percent of consumers who bought a netbook said they were satisfied, while 65 percent said they expected the same performance as a regular laptop. Many were so unsatisfied that they returned them. How many? Intel’s Sean Maloney was quoted in this article as saying, “They [netbooks] had very high return rates, and a couple of these guys [retailers] had return rates in the 30 percent range, which is a disaster.” Three out of every 10 get returned? Yikes!

In fact, after a slight dip in sales at Amazon.com, when interest in netbooks was at a fever pitch, Apple is back at the top of the sales chart with the new 13-inch MacBook Pro, which has been the top-selling laptop since the moment it was introduced.

Mac Users Want More

The market is apparently showing what Apple, and Steve Jobs, already knew. People want small and cheap, but they don’t want to give up power. As Mac users, we want more from our hardware, and we’re willing to pay a bit more for it. That demand prohibits Apple from selling a powerful, small, and cheap laptop.

Sure, it would be great to have a $500 MacBook. But do you really want to spend that much for a Mac that has limitations that might include a smaller keyboard, a smaller screen, a stripped-down OS, the inability to edit or even watch videos with smooth playback, or a hard drive only large enough to keep a small sampling of your iPhoto and iTunes collection on in order to save room for other documents. I sure don’t, and I suspect that I’m not alone.

Apple's MacBook Air

The MacBook Air, as I stated earlier, is quite a capable little machine. The lack of numerous ports and a media drive initially struck me as absolute craziness at the highest levels at Apple. But when I look at how I use my current 15-inch MacBook Pro, I was surprised to notice how little I actually used the media drive; the Firewire and USB ports; the card slot and the ethernet port. I do most of my heavy-duty graphics work on a Mac Pro at the office, so the extent of my laptop use is light-duty graphics for the web, office and web apps, with the occasional iMovie or iPhoto work.

I suspect my laptop use is typical of most laptop users, except I paid a premium for some extra processor power that I don’t use, a slightly faster hard drive and slightly larger screen that aren’t worth the extra weight or battery use over a MacBook Air.

In fact, when I look at my usage, I really need a netbook. My next laptop will be something cheaper, smaller, lighter and just a little less powerful, but not crippled. A netbook. Most likely it will be named MacBook Air.

Note: I highly doubt Apple will ever release what most consider a netbook. But I’m fully prepared to eat my words, if I have to. After all, I didn’t expect an OS X upgrade to cost only $29, either. With Apple, you just never know what the next headline will be.

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