Predictably, many are running with this. An Apple computer starting at $799 would be a big deal — the cheapest traditional laptop the company has ever made. The Digitimes report had few details, but the theme that’s emerging in the flash analysis around the idea of a $799 Air is that Apple wouldn’t do it by choice, but would be “forced to” out of some sort of response to the threat of Intel-based ultrabook notebooks — which, mind you, are direct rip-offs of the Air.

It’s not impossible Apple would make a $799 Air. They could, but if they do, it wouldn’t be for the reasons many think.

Apple is not scared of ultrabooks. Intel’s thin-and-light, optical drive-less laptop concept with a solid-state drive and all-day battery life isn’t a monolith. As Dan Ackerman wrote for CNET in March, the term “ultrabook” has been clouded as a marketing term thanks to its overuse by mainstream laptop makers, and there’s not even an accepted definition anymore — it’s essentially the catch-all term for new mid-priced laptops. Apple has never been worried about competing with mid-priced laptops from HP, Dell, Acer or Samsung.

Today, you can buy an “ultrabook” that’s thicker than an inch, is heavier than 4 pounds, has a 14-inch screen, a traditional spinning hard drive, and decent battery life. They’re also priced between $700 and $900, or slightly below the $999 entry level 11.6-inch MacBook Air. In other words — nothing has changed. PC makers have been making laptops for years that could beat Apple on specs and often price and still Apple has done its own thing and continued to rake in profits.

Ultrabooks aren’t actually selling very well. It’s old news that Intel’s $300 million initiative intended to jumpstart this category is having a rough go of it. Holiday sales of the devices were described as “ugly.” And why not, when some consumers are putting off new computer purchases as they migrate some computing experiences to mobile devices such as iPhone and iPads?

People are already buying the $999 Air. The Air is doing fine on its own after beginning life in 2008 as a niche concept and very expensive design. Once Apple redesigned it and lowered the price two years later, it’s apparently done decent business for the company. Apple has never said how many Airs it typically sells each quarter, though analysts pegged the Air as responsible for a little more than a quarter of MacBook sales back in October. It’s also the company’s entry-level computer, so it’s not unreasonable that the cheapest computer would also be one of its best-selling computers.

Apple doesn’t typically do price cuts as a response to competitors. The idea that Intel aiming for $699 ultrabooks would suddenly “force” Apple to move down in price on its successful MacBook Air doesn’t match up with Apple’s practices. Apple has indeed lowered pricing on its most successful products over the last few years. But the way in which it’s cut prices isn’t with a new model — it’s been by lowering the price of older devices.

Apple’s most important product, the iPhone, has remained priced between $199 and $399 (with two-year wireless contract) since 2008 for new models. In 2009 Apple first discounted its popular device for older models. While simultaneously introducing the typically priced new iPhone 3GS, it kept the older model iPhone 3G for sale for the discounted price of $99. The same happened with the introduction of a new phone in 2010 — the 3GS stayed around for $99 — and in 2011, the two-year old iPhone 3GS became free with contract, while the iPhone 4 went down to $99. It has followed a similar pattern with the iPad — with the introduction of the third-generation iPad in January, Apple began offering the year-old iPad 2 for $399 instead of the normal $499 entry price.

So if Apple does decide to price a MacBook Air at $799, it likely won’t be to replace the $999 11.6-inch model that’s selling just fine, but perhaps as last year’s model simply discounted. But in general, this is a Digitimes report we’re talking about — I wouldn’t hold your breath for a cheaper MacBook.

Note: This was updated to clarify that a $799 MacBook Air would be Apple’s cheapest laptop ever, not cheapest computer, and that the first iPhone discount was in 2009.

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It’s been rumored before, but on Wednesday a new report is saying that not only will Apple introduce a 15-inch Air, it will replace the 15-inch Pro, or as Electricpig’s source put it, “effectively killing the Pro for the average consumer.” That is, the 17-inch MacBook Pro might hang around for professionals who need that larger screen. They place the timing of the rollout of new MacBook Airs in April.

The source is a “premium Mac accessory maker” involved in docking solutions. That they would have direct knowledge of Apple’s plans isn’t too likely, but that they would be planning for an updated MacBook would be very much expected.

But whether the source does have direct knowledge or not, expanding the MacBook Air lineup is a very logical step for Apple to take. After using an Air for any amount of time, the Pro, while more powerful and with more ports, feels bulky by comparison.

The Air is no longer an expensive, niche device: the 13-inch Air starts at $1,299 and the 13-inch Pro starts at $1,199. It’s one of Apple’s best-selling laptops — as of last fall, it accounted for nearly a third of MacBooks sold. That’s a good demonstration that Air characteristics that were once considered trade-offs (no optical drive, no ethernet port, less local storage) aren’t barriers for everyone, especially in today’s cloud- and iCloud-centric computing era.

For these reasons it’s fairly easy to see why Apple would want to expand the Air lineup to larger screen sizes and potentially more buyers. But it’s true that the Air isn’t for everybody. Would you be disappointed if Apple discontinued the 15-inch MacBook Pro?

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• The future of notebooks: Following in the footsteps of the MacBook Air

Apple’s special displays were announced alongside a program of deploying small boutiques within Target’s larger stores called the “Shops at Target,” the retailer revealed. These pop-up-type shops seem to be temporary locations that will sell Target-specific goods. The arrangement with Apple is separate from the “Shops at Target” initiative, but full details are not yet known about what exactly it includes.

Target spokeswoman Dustee Jenkins told MarketWatch that Target will “have 25 stores with unique display and assortment [of inventory]” for Apple goods, but it isn’t clear where or when the stores will appear first. We have requested more information from Target and Apple and will update this story if we find out more about what is being offered and what the timeline is for the arrival of these stores.

An in-store partnership with Target should help Apple reach more markets in areas where dedicated Apple retail locations don’t make financial sense. If they do end up resembling Best Buy mini-stores, they will be staffed with knowledgeable, Apple-specific personnel and offer Mac computers and more in addition to the iOS devices currently available at Target.

Photo: Some rights reserved by Chris Coyier

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Doing it before it was cool

The iMac was an all-in-one long before the form factor was popular, although it arrived much later than its own predecessor, the original Macintosh computer. Still, at the time the iMac arrived, the competition was all about separate towers and monitors. All-in-ones had trade-offs that seemed considerable at the time, including fewer customization options and no opportunity to really get into the high-performance range of personal computing.

Fast-forward to today, 14 years after the introduction of the first iMac, and it is the computer with the lion’s share of the hottest growth area in desktop computing. According to DisplaySearch, as reported by Bloomberg on Wednesday, the iMac accounts for 32.9 percent of the all-in-one desktop market, which itself grew 39 percent over the course of 2011 to 14.5 million shipments worldwide. DisplaySearch believes that the market will reach 23.3 million units by 2014, and Apple looks likely to lead the pack, since its next-closest competitor is Lenovo, with 22.7 percent of all-in-one sales.

Early investment pays later dividends

Apple doesn’t always strike a vein when it comes to early, unusual designs for its computers. The G4 Cube is a prime example. But that doesn’t mean they don’t bear fruit. The Cube formed the groundwork for the Mac mini, which succeeds as an HTPC and an inexpensive Mac desktop option. Likewise, the early MacBook Air, which was expensive, somewhat underpowered and mostly admired from afar, paved the way for the current generation of sleek, fast, awesome general-use machines.

Apple worked out its ultraportable teething issues early, while competitors either looked on in disbelief that anyone would want such a device (its downsides vs. traditional notebooks were similar to the iMac’s flaws regarding user customization and repairs) or offered even more half-baked attempts at competing, like Dell’s Adamo. The first iteration of the MacBook Air meant Apple was ready to come back cheaper, faster and stronger.

Playing catch-up

Now Intel is prompting other notebook manufacturers to jump in late and try to capitalize on the demand for ultraportables. CES pitches are littered with the term, and it seems like every PC maker is planning an Air-like notebook for release in the near term. But the iMac’s doppelgängers haven’t managed to dethrone it, and I highly doubt we will see the notebook market behave very differently.

With both the iMac and the MacBook Air, Apple managed to successfully skate to where the puck’s going to be, and in doing so it has put itself at the fore of growth areas in overall markets (desktop and notebook PCs) that are otherwise sluggish. For users, that means both the iMac and the Air will be among Apple’s most exciting products to watch in 2012 and beyond.

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According to the DigiTimes report, it isn’t clear whether the device being produced will be classified as a MacBook Pro or MacBook Air, but it will sport a thinner design, with the aim of making a lighter, more portable notebook computer. Intel has dubbed this category the “Ultrabook,” and a number of Windows-based PC manufacturers either have or intend to join the fray, based largely on Apple’s success with its current MacBook Air offerings.

The Air has been a strong seller since its introduction, according to estimates from industry analyst groups like NPD, and has helped buoy Mac sales to record heights in recent quarters. Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer also cited “very strong growth” of MacBook Air sales during the company’s last earnings call as a driver behind the 74-percent share of Mac revenue accounted for by Apple notebooks.

Meanwhile, the general ultrabook PC market isn’t exactly going gangbusters. According to a tweet from industry-watcher Steve Paine, it looks like all the competition combined can’t compete with the MacBook Air, which is probably due in part to aggressive pricing from Apple. Apple has a significant advantage in the ultraportable space as a result, and can likely afford to diversify its line in order to take advantage of that momentum.

A 15-inch MacBook Air would probably have more limited mass-market appeal compared to more travel-friendly 13- and 11-inch models, but it should appeal to MacBook Pro users who’ve just been waiting for a larger screen to pick up a lighter, more portable machine. Also, a 15-inch will definitely attract some consumers who appreciate more screen real estate, and a larger chassis could lead to another upward bump in battery life, like the two-hour improvement between the 11- and 13-inch Airs.

Apple making a thin and light 15-inch notebook isn’t yet guaranteed, since no official announcement has been made, but given that the ultraportable category is a space where Apple is at least three or four years ahead of the competition, and increasingly a key part of its Mac division, it seems likely we’ll see one sometime soon.

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• CES 2012: a recap and analysis
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Apple has continually edited the design of the Air since it debuted in 2008. The 2010 major redesign and price drop has turned it into a big seller for the company. Apple took out the ethernet port, optical drive, hard disk drive and left just two USB ports in the Air. But these non-traditional features have not driven potential notebook buyers running for the hills: Reports after Apple launched 11.6-inch and 13.3-inch models in late 2010 indicated the company sold 1 million in the first two months. Customers responded positively to the extremely lightweight, solid-state storage-only option, near-instant boot/wake times, long battery life, and most importantly, the $999 starting price. A subtler set of updates to the line this summer lead the company to drop its previous (and popular) entry-level notebook, the white MacBook, altogether.

Ultrabook makers are, a year later, following in Apple’s footsteps, both in terms of design and features. But it’s been mostly at the behest of Intel. The chipmaker has encouraged PC makers to make ultrabooks, based on lower-power Intel chips (of course). The results, so far, are not exact copies of the Air’s feature set — for instance, the Acer Aspire S has dropped the optical drive but kept the hard drive. But the prices are close to the Air and the overall design inspiration is unmistakable.

So far there are indications that great expectations may need to be modified, as early reports say that Acer and Asus aren’t shipping nearly as many ultrabooks as initially thought. But that could change once the holiday buying season is here, and people are shopping for super portable, well-priced notebooks.

But will it help boost the overall PC market? The PC business, as we know, isn’t in great shape, thanks to a bad economy and a growing interest in touchscreen tablets. Apple has bucked that industry trend — selling more iPads while still selling more computers — and a huge reason is the MacBook Air, which the company said last month helped lead to a record quarter for Mac sales. But the company is obviously not going to sit still.

The things that really wowed people about the Air — the incredible thinness, the deletion of non-necessary features, and the responsiveness of the machine — have to be improved upon. So how can they? Well, as some very accomplished industrial designers told me, it’s very hard to get much thinner than the Air and still have a traditional notebook form factor. Take away too much and you essentially wind up with the iPad.

So it’s going to have to come with advances in software, in interfaces and new forms of input, like voice and touch, and the continual improvement in battery size, life, and — while we know chips will regularly get faster — how manufacturers deal with heat dissipation and battery life in conjunction with those chips’ advances.

To read about these and other factors facing the companies designing our future notebooks, and what some of today’s most forward-thinking electronics designers have to say about it, please read my latest long view at GigaOM Pro.

Asus Zenbook image courtesy of Amazon.com

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• The future of notebooks: Following in the footsteps of the MacBook Air
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Updated. Wednesday, UBS sent a research note that increases its forecast for the number of tablets sold this year, while simultaneously knocking down its expectations for the PC industry’s growth. The opposite trajectories of PC and tablets indicate consumers are, in certain cases choosing to opt for a tablet instead of a new laptop. And that’s not great news for PC makers, since right now not many are buying their tablets either.

Update: For the tablet forecast, UBS says it was driven to update that number based on Apple’s rather stunning revelation last week that it sold more than 20 million 9 million iPads between April and June this year. The research group also manages to sneak in a little “I-told-you-so” regarding the overall growth of the tablet market while it’s at it:

We are raising our 2011 tablet forecast to 60 million from 55 million and 2012 to 90 million from 80 million. The vast majority of our forecast change is a result of our upward revision to our Apple iPad forecast (37.9 million from 32.3 million in 2011 & 53 million from 46.9 million in 2012), implying ~63% share of the market. We believe consensus is near our once-controversial 55mn forecast but is likely to rise.

So why are people flocking to touchscreen tablets? UBS says, “We believe the tablet ramp is being driven by utility (a number of use cases for consumer as well as enterprise that help to drive demand) and broader distribution.”

Essentially, people are buying tablets because they are finding lots of different ways to use them. Of course, a tablet is not the perfect replacement for a laptop, but their skyrocketing popularity — all while PC sales are barely growing at all — makes it clear at least some people seem to be OK with less-than-full-PC functionality for basic stuff, like browsing the Web, tapping out a few e-mails, watching videos, checking Facebook and shopping online.

The UBS note added that the group’s “anecdotal retail checks indicate generally soft sell-through of non-iPad tablets,” which is a really nice way of saying people aren’t exactly lining up to buy Android tablets, BlackBerry PlayBooks or HP TouchPads. After Apple’s 37.9 million iPads UBS is expecting them to sell this year, it sees Samsung selling 5 million, Asus 2.2 million, RIM 1.9 million, Motorola 1.8 million and Acer 1.4 million.

Meanwhile in the PC industry, expectations are low. Previously UBS had expected year-over-year growth of 6.3 percent. Now, it’s estimating growth of just 4.5 percent. The report doesn’t explicitly draw a connection between the growth of tablets and decline of PCs, but plenty of others have. Research firm Gartner said earlier this year that the iPad would “dramatically” cut into PC sales .

Even Apple COO Tim Cook, who clearly has a dog in both fights, admitted to the iPad cutting into Mac sales during the company’s recent earnings report. Apple believes “some customers chose to purchase an iPad instead of a new Mac during the quarter.” He added, “But we also believe that even more customers purchased an iPad over a Windows PC. There’s a lot more of the PC business to cannibalize than the Mac.”

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Apple tested the waters for an ultraslim notebook with the original MacBook Air, and at the time, it came with a lot of trade-offs. Back in early 2008, not including an optical disc drive seemed like a very bizarre move. And while the laptop’s price ($1,799) meant that it was out of range for most consumers, it still didn’t offer the muscle necessary to appeal to professionals.

But it did accomplish three important things: It put the idea of an Apple ultraportable into the minds of the notebook-buying public; it got Apple engineers to build upon the best elements from that first design, translating it into something everyone would want and many more could buy; and it kick-started Apple’s ability to negotiate for better prices on the specialized components required to make an ultrathin MacBook.

If Apple’s ultimate goal wasn’t to emulate the Air form factor across its notebook line (even if the “Pro” designation remains for 15- and 17-inch models, as TUAW says will happen), that would be a shock. Since the Air’s original introduction, optical media has become much less necessary to consumer and professional computing. And Apple’s recent decision to go with a digital-only distribution model for OS X Lion, the major update it released last week, suggests that it wants to wean users off CDs and DVDs sooner rather than later. In fact, the Mac App Store in general strongly suggests this, as did the iTunes Store before it. I wouldn’t be surprised if Apple had road-mapped the death of the optical drive since it figured out with the iPod that physical media is antithetical to true portability.

Apple has also shown with the iPhone, iPad and iPod touch that it knows thinner and lighter are of key importance to consumers when it comes to portable devices. That approach has served it well on the mobile side, so why not apply it to notebooks as well?

Based on conversations I’ve had with Mac users, the limitations that many professionals cite when explaining why they didn’t buy an Air are few: Small screen size, lack of ports, limited storage and discrete graphics are among them. If Apple can deliver those (and space freed up from removing the optical drive should help), then an ultrathin MacBook Pro is sure to be a hit. At this stage, the only barriers to 15- and 17-inch ultraportable Mac powerhouses are technical, and those are not barriers that prevent Apple from doing anything for very long.

Consider that the 128 GB SSD option, when it was first introduced in 2008, was a $700 upgrade, along with a faster processor on the second-gen MacBook Air. The 256 GB upgrade, along with a faster processor, now costs only an extra $450 for the new 11.6-inch MacBook Air; that’s double the storage for nearly half the price of just three years ago. Apple seems much better able to manage the cost of solid-state storage, due either to smart sourcing or falling flash prices in general, and that should translate to higher-capacity options in ultraportable Pros. Plus, if Apple decides to not go quite as slim as the Air, fitting a 2.5-inch drive shouldn’t be too difficult alongside SSD customization options. Such a compromise would likely allow Apple to stay within the current price range of the larger-screened MacBook Pros, if SSD prices make that otherwise difficult.

TUAW says we’ll see these new machines possibly before Christmas. Apple doesn’t usually release new Mac hardware past October in terms of its yearly cycle, but October actually could be the perfect time for an update to the Pro line. The Pro went longer than usual without an update last time around, but in 2008 it got an update in February and then again in October. This year we saw an update in February that introduced Thunderbolt and new processors, so an October update wouldn’t be unprecedented.

I think Apple is probably quite far along in the development of these machines, and it may only be that the company is waiting and watching to see how the updated MacBook Air fares to decide whether or not the market is ready for it to embrace a similar form factor across its entire lineup. If that’s the case, then I think chances are good that we’ll see a larger, Pro-level ultraportable before 2012.

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2010: A Predominantly Mobile Year

Before introducing the iPad at the Apple event in January, Steve Jobs defined Apple as a “mobile devices company.” According to Jobs, Apple made more money on mobile devices (including iPods, iPhones, and MacBooks) than companies like Sony, Samsung, and Nokia did on their portable products. For the fiscal year ending in September, that trend continued.

Net sales for Apple were just over $65 billion, of which approximately $50 billion was divided among four portable product lines, with $6 billion going to Mac desktops. Since the iPad was only available for seven months in FY 2010, the Mac desktop will likely be last among Apple’s top hardware earners in 2011.

Notebook vs. Desktop Trends

That doesn’t mean the Mac desktop isn’t earning money. After a disastrous year in 2009, which saw a 23 percent decline in net sales, Mac desktop sales rebounded in 2010, up 18 percent. The problem is, Mac laptops were up 43 percent in net sales for 2010, and that was on top of a 9 percent increase in 2009.

Looking at Mac unit sales puts the net sales into perspective. While laptops started taking off in 2006, desktop sales have seen fluctuations, and even declines, though 2010 was a big rebound year. Nonetheless, Mac laptops represent a strong growth curve for Apple, which, as with the rest of the PC industry, has come at the expense of desktop sales.

Over the last 10 years, Mac notebooks and desktops have more or less switched positions in unit sales. In 2001, 7 out of 10 Macs sold were desktops. In 2009, the reverse was true. For 2010, strong iMac sales pushed the ratio back down to “only” two out of three Macs in favor of notebooks. With the introduction of the new MacBook Air, consumer dollars will swing even more towards the laptop, if analyst expectations prove accurate.

The State of the Desktop

The question then becomes: At what point do individual Mac desktop products reach a point of diminishing sales returns for Apple? The simple answer is that iMacs are safe in the short term. While Apple hasn’t broken out sales numbers for individual desktops since 2005, back then, the iMac accounted for about two-thirds of Mac desktop sales. Since then, comments in Apple conference calls reference only “strong sales” of the iMac, if desktops are mentioned at all, so the iMac’s role in the desktop picture has likely grown stronger still.

As for the Mac Pro and the Mac mini, a lot will depend on whether Apple continues to develop OS X Server. With the demise of the Xserve, Apple is showing it doesn’t really have that much interest in the enterprise back end. Exiting the server software business might make IT enthusiasts recoil, but Apple remains a consumer-focused business. It’s not going to happen next year, but Apple is clearly gearing itself towards a time when the “mobile device company” descriptor is entirely accurate.

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BetaNews’ Joe Wilcox writes:

It’s a stunning number, given just how many Windows PC companies combined command so much more market share, while competing for the same revenue share.

The numbers are impressive, but a little perspective goes a long way. The economy has seen sales of new computers decline, particularly in the run-up to the launch of Windows 7. Customers in search of a new computer held-back on purchases while they waited for the new OS (and the newer Windows 7-sporting machines from manufacturers) became available. And let’s not forget the state of the economy. This recession has had a significant impact on PC sales.

Stephen Baker, NPD’s vice president of industry analysis, told Wilcox:

You’re comparing the [iMac] launch month this year to the month last year when people stopped going into stores to buy things,” Baker said. “To some extent it’s a little bit apples and oranges.”

Still, it makes for great headlines, and I’m sure Apple won’t fail to wedge appropriate charts (sans actual numbers) into Steve’s next keynote presentation.

It’s worth noting that the numbers go the other way when comparing Laptops. Apple’s share of the laptop market was 34 percent in October this year, down on last year’s 38 percent. That said, laptops (Apple and otherwise) have come a long way in terms of power and price, (in 2008 it overtook desktops for the first time in global shipments) and dominating over a third of that market in North America is no small feat. It’s even more impressive than that — NPD also says that the average selling price (ASP) of Mac laptops in October this year was $1,410, more than twice the $519 ASP of Windows laptops.

Of course, there’s still the fiddly question of sustainability; now Apple has achieved these heady figures, can it keep them? The most probable answer is, no, not really. These figures are the result of unique conditions in the market (after all, global recessions and major Windows OS releases tend not to coincide, never mind on an annual basis) and it seems practical to conclude that Apple’s desktop market share is bound to decline in the next year, barring, of course, any surprising changes in that market. (Y’know, like Windows 7 inexplicably failing, or half the world’s PC manufacturers going out of business overnight… in other words, the sort of major surprises that are really, really unlikely.)

One thing you can be certain of; this time next year, as the economy strengthens and OEMs lower the prices of their no-longer-new Windows 7 machines, Apple’s share of desktop retail revenue will likely drop back to more ‘normal’ levels. And can you guess what the headlines will be when that happens?

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