Lately, its not just the “creative” types who have a Mac; increasingly techies of all sorts (but definately the Ruby and Java developers I know) have almost universally switched to Mac. The Intel Macs really made a difference.

Meanwhile, Dvorak doesn’t understand the network effect that has limited Apple’s penetration into the PC market … or the inverse market effect of the phone market. An iPhone doesn’t have to choose between being cool and fully inter-operational with other phones. The standards that make up the phone market are far more contricting, but in this situation, that becomes a level playing field.

Personally, I think the iPhone is fun but not worth the money to me (I can be cool without needing a supporting gadget). However, for business people who gets lots of voice mail, it is worth it just for the visual voice mail organizer.

Dvorak has changed his stance on the iPhone. He also uses an iMac at one of his jobs.

Mac Zealots should get over the fact that Dvorak was once a Mac hater. He has changed his opinion about Apple and Macs. He hates on windows and PCs constantly these days.

I used to get offended by Dvorak in the real Apple dark days (90s). Now he is just cranky, outlandish, funny, with reasonable insights now and then.

I switched from a PC to a MAC 2.5 years ago and work on PC’s all day. Apple is just better.

I had a Blackberry and now have an iPhone, not even close. Next time someone with a blackberry is talking down the iPhone ask them if they have fun with their Blackberry and then just watch their face..( that is something they never considered, utility and fun)

As the apps flow for the iPhone, the interest in the blackberry will fade, along with many other PDA and phones.

As for whats his name, I have never taken him seriously and whatever he is paid, it’s waaaaay to much.

“The Macintosh uses an experimental pointing device called a ‘mouse.’
There is no evidence that people want to use these things.”
– John C. Dvorak, SF Examiner, Feb. 1984.

I dont think that I can be any more sarchastic than that. There are always going to be people that predict doom and downfall, and any company that ventures into a new area will receive hostility. If you watch Steve Jobs Keynote when Microsoft bought into Apple, many thought that it would be the end. When apple released the ipod, many were not too impressed with it. When apple released the translucent imac series, they were litterally laughed at (initially).

The simple truth is that some people really dont have the capacity to think differently and see something for what it can be. John Dvorak fits nicely into this classification.

What’s he got to lose by pissing Apple fanatics off? Nothing!

Dvorak: “There is no likelihood that Apple can be successful in a business this competitive. Even in the business where it is a clear pioneer, the personal computer, it had to compete with Microsoft and can only sustain a 5% market share.
And its survival in the computer business relies on good margins. Those margins cannot exist in the mobile handset business for more than 15 minutes. ”

Dvorak sees Apple still languishing with a paltry market share in the PC world. I think Apple used a limited investment in shaped and colored plastics to create the iMac, a repackaged PC they could sell at a premium well outside the typical PC margins. Apple apparently prefers 5% of the PC market with fat margins to 25% at commodity margins. Dell and Intel — giants within the commoditized end of the market — find their competitive advantage duplicated by competitors and now struggle to find another angle to propel earnings.

This is the model for the iPhone. Beautiful packaging and an elegant combination of phone/photo/web/sms technologies which allows Apple to sell devices in the $400-$600 range aren’t meant to compete with market share giants Motorola or Nokia. They’re meant to carve out that most profitable, least price conscious 3-5% of the overall market which carries the fatest margins and allows Apple to do what it’s done so well for the past decade, from iMac, to iPod, to iTunes, while most of the rest of the market scratches their heads stuck seeing the world through Dvorak’s vision.