These 10% of consumers will always buy Apple. The rest will buy the phone they like on their respective network where they get an upgrade credit and once apps are available on all platforms doing relatively similar things, most people won’t care much.

Being a developer myself, I’m going with Android.

Being open, as Tom and Sigal pointed out, is not necessarily what it’s proponents would have us believe!

YOU SAID: “First, I assume you believe that the iPhone will always be this size–there will never be bigger or smaller iPhones.”

I absolutely believe that iPhones like the alleged iPhone nano would be ridiculous. It would render many iPhone apps useless, and Apple should be smart enough to know the platform is more important than a “market share grab” that only tech pundits seems to care about. Larger screens are another matter; while some apps may need revising to take advantage of the extra real estate, they’re still usable as originally purchased until then.

YOU SAID: ““Ooh! Android apps won’t work on different phones! You’ll buy this expensive phone and discover your apps won’t work on it! Be afraid! Beee afraaaiiidd!” You have absolutely no evidence that this is so.”

I have empirical evidence of the disparate hardware platforms in Windows Mobile and Symbian phones (as just two examples) that have shown, CLEARLY, a fragmentation in the hardware and apps being offered.

Feel free to tell me how Android will avoid this fate unless all the “partners” in hardware develop handsets with similar feature sets, and all the carriers offer similar services. As you pointed out (though I had already done so), even the iPhone has some hardware differences, and it’s from just one company.

YOU SAID: “And, if developers want to target the largest number of phones, that means they’ll look up how big the screen is and adjust their interface accordingly.”

Sure, they could adjust to a small screen. So a button originally designed to be touched by a human finger can now only be touched by the big toe of a centipede. Frankly, I think an “Android nano” would be as stupid as a small iPhone. The difference is that Apple knows not to make one, do the Android hardware vendors?

And don’t ignore the carriers. Let’s say I write a great app to transfer all your MP3s to your Android phone. Oops! Your Android phone is on Verizon, and maybe they decided they don’t want you putting your own music on the phone; you can use just use their VCAST service thank you very much. Remember that the same phone is frequently sold with various hardware features disabled depending on the carrier. What’s the plan for Android handsets to avoid this same thing?

Do you think Apple struck deals with specific carriers just to piss off people using other carriers? They needed an agreement in services offered — in so much as that’s possible — to help guarantee a consistent user experience. Heck, RIM couldn’t even get Verizon to allow WiFi on their flagship Storm! The carriers have a lot of pull; they could single-handedly derail Android even if all the hardware vendors held hands and sang “Give Peace a Chance”.

I’m not saying I WANT any of this, and it sure as hell isn’t FUD. It’s what we’ve all SEEN before, and I’ve heard no good explanations as to how Android will avoid this fate. Too many witches spoil the brew.

But enough of this.

We could argue all day and get nowhere. You think I’m spreading FUD (as if I’m in any position to do so). OK. I think you have a simplistic view that GROSSLY underestimates the task before Android and the ability (or even desire) of this coalition of “partners” to pull it off.

“Once the above app is available, consumers will begin to find out that an ‘Android app’ is not quite what it claims to be (i.e., it runs on an ‘Android phone’). The disparate hardware will mean there will be plenty of apps that won’t run properly on their particular ‘Android phone.’”

“If Android becomes popular, developers will tend to go with the lowest common denominator hardware so as to reach the widest audience possible.”

First, I assume you believe that the iPhone will always be this size–there will never be bigger or smaller iPhones. So the whole concept of, say, a NetBook or a Tablet which runs iPhone’s OS X will never exist. We’ll have 480 x 320 163 ppi screens for the rest of our days. Sounds like it’s going to limit innovation a little bit, huh?

Second, you already see this situation in the iTunes Store. Heck, I went to the iTunes Store, typed in GPS, and picked the first app that showed up: GPS Tracker. In it’s notes, it mentions that this only works in “some places in the US” if you’re using an iPod touch. Take the second app, Motion X GPS. It specifically says that it was designed exclusively for the iPhone 3G. Heck, I went down the list and saw the continuous litany of “Won’t be accurate on the iPhone or iPod touch.”

Your statements are pure FUD. “Ooh! Android apps won’t work on different phones! You’ll buy this expensive phone and discover your apps won’t work on it! Be afraid! Beee afraaaiiidd!”

You have absolutely no evidence that this is so. Trust me, it is possible on for Android to detect whether or not you have a GPS device and how big your screen is and for applications to find this out from the operating system. And, if developers want to target the largest number of phones, that means they’ll look up how big the screen is and adjust their interface accordingly.

And, the best part is if I have an issue, I could actually get a refund! Because developers don’t have to go through a storefront, they can keep all the money and they can provide refunds! Since iPhone developers have to go through the App Store, if you have a problem with an application, you’re pretty much SOL.