Comments on: Cisco: Our mobile data appetite doubled in size in 2012 (and it’s getting bigger)

By: Kevin Fitchard

Kevin Fitchard — Wed, 06 Feb 2013 22:22:40 +0000

Hi 186K,

Valid point, and I admit to dropping the ball in the last graph. I was looking at from the POV that the CAGR dropped by only a few percentage points, but like you say when spread out over five years, year 2017 numbers drop significantly. I should have delved a little deeper with my analysis.

Another thing that changed significantly is the amount of data Cisco is now projecting is going to offload, which has a big impact. Carriers and the government are citing the VNI when justifying the need for more licensed spectrum, but if more than half of is going to offload maybe unlicensed is exactly where they should be looking.

In any case, I will give Cisco credit for making their methodology plain. They readily admitted they underestimated the effect of caps and tiered plans on their growth projections. They were also caught off guard by the flatlining of laptop usage in Europe.

That said I agree with you that it’s impossible to project 5 years out no matter how much data you collect. That’s one of the main reasons I prioritized today and last years’ numbers over the five year projections.

Check in in a few days though. We have one of our analysts doing a deep dive into the implications of Cisco’s VNI adjustments. It should be a good read.

Thanks for commenting!

By: Monica

Monica — Wed, 06 Feb 2013 17:16:03 +0000

Since we are well on our way to 4 billion internet connected devices/screens, it only makes sense to use a service that is device independent to store, sync and share your photos, music, video and documents. CloudMe has your bases covered with apps for phones, tablets, computers and smart tvs.

By: realjjj

realjjj — Wed, 06 Feb 2013 10:40:37 +0000

Yesterday ARM was talking about sales in 2012 – 1.6B internet connected devices, mostly smartphones,tablets,TVs and PCs .In 2017 according to Gartner and ARM estimates , 4 billion internet connected screens.
Cisco seems to be conservative in the way the industry goes. It’s very unlikely for tablets to even exist in 2017, most cars might not have a connection (the phone supplies it), regions with better regulators will have better supply of mobile data and many will cut the ethernet cord (the US is likely to fall behind here, or lets say further behind).

By: 186k

186k — Wed, 06 Feb 2013 09:26:52 +0000

I think I would describe a reduction of around a third in topline forecasts more than just a slight reduction. For example, this time last year they reckoned 2016 would be 10.8 EB per month and now it’s 7.4 EB but hey who can forecast out five years

The real problem is with their forecast for 2012, in Feb 2012, they reckoned it would be 1.3EB per month in 2012, a growth of 116% on the actual (?) for 2011. Today, a year later, they believe the actual for 2012 was only 0.9 EB a growth of 50%! That’s a massive change, so if they can’t get a forecast right for the actual year they are in, what confidence five years out!

By: Luscious

Luscious — Wed, 06 Feb 2013 09:14:42 +0000

And you wonder why mobile broadband in the U.S. still sucks:

http://lgponthemove.blogspot.com/2012/01/off-beaten-track-why-mobile-broadband.html

My average use TODAY with a laptop is 30GB/month (and those are months without Netflix), so I’m not surprised. What annoys the heck out of me is that carriers (along with other so-called experts) have for years been feeding this faery tale to the general population that unlimited data plans aren’t feasible. What will carriers do when tablet users begin to hog services like Netflix/Hulu, or Windows 8 slate owners begin to use Steam for game purchases/downloads?

Verizon’s top 4G LTE tier is 30GB for which they charge an eye-popping $180/month. Clear will still provide unlimited data for a flat $50, but you get at best DSL speeds only. There needs to be a better solution when countries in Asia can deliver faster speeds and do it for under $2/GB.

By: billbennettnz

billbennettnz — Wed, 06 Feb 2013 03:02:31 +0000

Reblogged this on Bill Bennett and commented: If anything New Zealand's data appetite grew even fast. 2degrees sent out a press release last week saying data use on its network increased by almost three times in the last year. It didn't say what the base was, so it's not clear if that estimate means anything much. Meanwhile Vodafone New Zealand says its data traffic has quadrupled over two years and climbed by 1300% in the last four years.