Two key trends underpin the history of computing: decreasing size with increasing power.
In this context, smartphones and tablets have reached a physical limitation. Essentially, there’s no way to make them smaller without reducing the screen size.
While it’s possible that the next disruption in computing hardware will be the removal of the screen altogether (potentially enabled by services like Siri), we could also see a shift in emphasis away from the mobility of computing power altogether.
With mobile devices increasingly used to access data that isn’t native to them, and as more information shifts to the cloud, personal hardware becomes a means to access rather than compute data.
For example, the Amazon Silk Browser utilizes split architecture, allowing some processing to take place remotely via Amazon Web Services. Consequently, the computational power of the device it’s running on becomes less relevant.
Freed from physical limitations, innovation and differentiation could creep back into hardware design (something sorely lacking in the current marketplace). Additionally, lower barriers to entry for manufacturing and the rise of the maker movement should drive increasing customization and personalization in hardware design, mirroring the way apps have given us more control over the software we use.
Ultimately, while the current status quo in smartphone, tablet and laptop design is unlikely to change in the short term, 2013 will give us the first indications of the possibilities for disrupting hardware.
You can download a free copy of GfK’s Tech Trends 2013 here.
Actually, its the opposite. The demand for higher power local computing in a smaller package will continue to grow. Here’s why:
1) The internet and access to it is still not reliable in many places, and connectivity is not yet seemless.
2) Internet latency is still too high (until it is imperceptible you will find most business users preferring their own devices for computing)
3) Privacy… past and future security and redundancy snaffu’s will erode trust in centralized information storage (yet the cloud will grow as a place to backup and replicate)
4) The prosumer / business user need for high power business apps… to essentially carry their PC with them in their pocket and power business apps that are not easily powered by today’s mobile devices or web apps, and be able to doc anywhere (in car, desk, or other local).
5) Resilience and reliability – Distributed storage and computing systems are much more resilient to outages. Of course, this is if the definition of the cloud is large data centers. If the definition of the cloud expands (as I think it will) to mean that the people and systems around and close to me can provide me with both storage and extra computing power (think along the lines of hive computing), your assertion might have more merit. As it stands however, the challenges to create such an environment are extremely large and creating such and environment will take a much longer time.
In short, I do not see your assessment of the trend as accurate.