While a 50 percent cut in demand does sound big, at least one Apple analyst is urging perspective with regard to Apple’s typical fiscal second quarter sales.

iPhone 5 product shot

Early Monday morning two separate reports were published claiming that Apple had cut orders from iPhone parts suppliers in half, due to weaker-than-expected demand from consumers. Japan’s Nikkei said that orders had been placed initially anticipating sales of around 65 million iPhones for the company’s second fiscal quarter of 2013. A similar report regarding display manufacturers’ orders being halved was reported by the Wall Street Journal, but did not contain specific numbers. Some investors appear to be jarred by the report, and Apple stock briefly dipped below the mostly arbitrary $500 mark early Monday.

While a 50 percent cut in demand does sound big, it’s useful to keep things in perspective with regard to Apple’s normal seasonal iPhone selling trends for the second quarter. As Wells Fargo analyst and Apple watcher Maynard Um wrote in a note to clients Monday:

65 million is an awfully big number. We believe investors should not put too much merit in the 65 million estimate as (1) order cuts are not new news and (2) the likelihood that Apple would have shipped 65 million iPhone 5’s for the March quarter would have been miniscule, in our opinion, given the large implied sequential ramp into what is typically a seasonally slower quarter (and with less new carrier launches given the acceleration in the December quarter). 65 million would imply a 41% sequential increase based on our December forecast of 46 million.

In other words, 65 million iPhone sold between January and March would be exceptional. For comparison, Apple sold 35.1 million iPhones in the same quarter in 2012.
Apple is scheduled to report its iPhone sales numbers for its first fiscal quarter, October through December 2012, on Jan. 23. Early signs are pointing to a good holiday quarter for the company.
  1. Jacob Flatter Monday, January 14, 2013

    In hlaf!?

    1. My, you’re quick. This typo was fixed almost before you commented.

  2. there is such thing as market saturation

    1. there is such thing a market manipulation

      1. there is such thing as market manipulation

  3. Stephen Adams Monday, January 14, 2013

    65 million down to 32.5 million is substantial and would be a decrease from 2012 to 2013 on an order of 2.6 million units.

  4. Funny how this comes out during the quiet period just before options expire on Friday, depriving Apple of a chance to respond and driving the price down so anyone betting on Apple stock going up gets hosed. Frankly, this has been going on for quite awhile. Do any reporters make the effort to investigate? No way; too much work.

    1. Yeah too much work. IT is a flame bait click internet world.

      And that makes the opportunity to do the opposite a good one.

      Publish articles only when you have some real original news or insight. Educate your readers instead of passing on misinformation. …

  5. I use all the smartphones, I loved BB in olden days, with apple changing the trend, i switch iphone and become absolute apple fan. But now again i may consider switch back to bb with their bb10 release


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