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Summary:

It’s been five years since Amazon CTO Werner Vogels first sat on the GigaOM Structure stage with Om. Instead of looking back, in their short chat they looked ahead at where the cloud industry and the major players would find themselves in the next five years.

Werner Vogels, CTO and VP, Amazon Structure 2012
photo: Pinar Ozger
Werner Vogels, CTO and VP, Amazon Structure 2012

Werner Vogels, CTO and VP, Amazon<br />(c)2012 Pinar Ozger pinar@pinarozger.com

It’s been five years since Amazon CTO Werner Vogels first sat on the GigaOM Structurestage with Om. Instead of looking back, in their short chat they looked ahead at where the cloud industry and the major players would find themselves in the next five years.

Between now and 2017, Vogels predicted:

  • AWS will be cheaper. Amazon will offer better pricing models, he promised. “If you look back, we’ve lowered pricing 20 times, so the best thing to look forward to is we’ll continue to do that,” said Vogels. “That’s at least our goal.”
  • Young businesses will continue to proliferate. He cited Socialcam, Pinterest and Instagram as examples of relatively new companies that have been built on the cloud and scaled quickly, and said we should plan to see many more of these popping up. “Would they have been able to build that on traditional world of hardware and infrastructure? I would like to think not. We’ll see a lot of new young businesses buildng completely new things.”
  • CIOs will give new guys a chance. “CIOs are willing to listen to new, young companies” when it comes to IT solutions, something the cloud has enabled, he said. “Five years ago they would only talk to big guys.” That’s going to continue to change.
  • Old hardware companies will have to fight extinction. HP and the other traditional hardware companies are going to have to adapt to survive, he predicted. “I do think that unless companies really take a new cloud mindset — not just a cloud in your offering but really be a partner to your customers instead of a vendor — and help them drive cost down” among other things, CIOs are going to look around at the young new companies cropping up everywhere. “I see CIOs willing to take way more risks now,” he said. “If dinosaurs aren’t changing, well we know what happened to dinosaurs.”

Check out the rest of our Structure 2012 coverage, as well as the live stream, here.

Watch live streaming video from gigaomstructure at livestream.com
  1. I think that the greatest roadblock to innovation when it concerns the cloud is fear of change. That’s what separates dinosaurs from the movers and shakers in the industry. Perhaps, it has something to do with the generation gap between millenials and the old timers.. where the first one has adapted more where technology is concerned.

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  2. @shaleen you might be oversimplifying it a little. Some people have been in some industries long enough to have seen the FIRST cloud computing revolution and people with that kind of experience probably don’t need to jump on every revolution as soon as it starts. Sometimes its good to be first out of the gate, but sometimes that means you become cannon-fodder ;)
    @kjakich
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centralized_computing#History

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