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Summary:

Verizon plans milk as much revenue off of its 3G and LTE networks as possible, becoming the “premium” mobile data operator, but its plan could backfire. Despite the increase in 4G sales, Verizon is still primarily a 3G operator, and 3G doesn’t justify its steep prices.

verizon-4g-lte

Verizon Wireless has no plans to lower prices on its smartphone data plans. In fact, Verizon plans to milk as much revenue from its 3G and LTE networks as possible, saying on its fourth quarter financial results call Tuesday it would establish itself as the “premium” carrier in the data market, charging its customers for quality.

That’s a bold statement considering Verizon suffered a string of LTE outages in December, challenging the credibility of its claim to be the nation’s “most reliable network.” But in general, playing up service quality has always worked for Verizon. It tends to be the highest-priced carrier of the big four, while its consumer perception ratings remain high. I’m just not sure it can maintain such a staunch stance for very long given the realities of the hyper-competitive smartphone market. A premium strategy might work if Verizon customers were all on 4G, but the majority of customers are still gravitating toward its 3G CDMA network.

Charging 4G prices for 3G services doesn’t make sense

Over the weekend, AT&T made the odd moves of both raising its data rates and boosting the ceilings on its data caps, giving new customers a better deal per megabyte consumed while almost guaranteeing they would pay higher bills than their predecessors. A new customer on AT&T will now get 1 GB, or 50 percent more data on a standard $30 plan than the same customer on Verizon. T-Mobile already far undercuts AT&T and Verizon on data fees, while Sprint is still offering unlimited plans.

The boom in smartphones and tablets and the emergence of more bandwidth-intensive applications like video are causing average monthly data consumption to skyrocket. The other operators have begun responding, not necessarily by dropping rates, but offering bigger buckets of data for the same price. Verizon seems to feel it’s immune to those price pressures. CFO Fran Shammo even stated Verizon views its data customers as occupying a high-end niche in the market.

“It’s important to note that we are a premium-priced product,” Shammo said. “We will continue to win in the market just like we did with Unleashed [prepaid data plans] even though that was priced $10 above the market. We now see that there are niches of people that want to be on the best network in the world.”

Verizon iPhone 4If Verizon’s data customers were only the upper echelon of smartphones users, they would all be flocking to the 4G network, but they’re not exactly coming in droves. Verizon sold 2.3 million LTE smartphones, tablets and mobile hotspots in the quarter, which seems like a lot, but not when you compare it the 7.7 million total smartphones it sold over the holidays.

Apple messes with the math. A lot of those sales were due to 4.2 million activations of iPhone 4 and 4S, which are 3G-only devices. That leaves 3.5 million smartphones, most of which were Android devices. That probably accounts for the vast majority of Verizon’s 4G activations, but it still leaves around 1 million customers who opted to get 3G phones when a 4G one was available, even though the data plan pricing for both networks remains the same. The trend was even more pronounced in the third quarter when three-quarters of all new Android device sales were in the 3G category.

The point I’m trying to make here is Verizon is still primarily a 3G operator today, and its 3G network is rather slow one at that. Unless there is a rapid shift of customers to 3G to 4G, Verizon will a hard to time justifying its high prices while its competitors drop their rates.

Will Apple come to the rescue?

Verizon does seem to be taking steps to nudge its customers over to 4G. By the end of 2011, its LTE network covered about two-thirds of the population, and it said Tuesday the 4G network will mirror its 3G network by mid-2013. LTE phones also cost more than their 3G LTE counterparts. While Shammo said Verzion won’t cut plan rates, Verizon expects LTE device prices to come down. Customers may soon have little choice but to buy a 4G phone. Verizon declared at CES it would no longer accept any smartphones that don’t have 4G connectivity.

The biggest factor in driving customers to 4G will be the launch of an LTE iPhone, which seems more and more likely this year considering the noises the operators are making. But if no LTE iPhone is forthcoming, Verizon will be in a difficult spot. It would wind up selling the most popular smartphone in the country coupled with the highest priced data plans, while simultaneously giving those iPhone customers slower network speeds and fewer gigabytes to consume. That hardly sounds like a premium service to me.

  1. There is one small factor that I beleive you are overlooking in this comparison. That factor is this: when customers are at the point of purchase at VzW and they are trying to make their decision between 3G and 4G, coverage is still an important factor…..and when coverages are compared, the EVDO is still far more dense than LTE and that can sway the customer to 3G-EVDO. Additional considerations are the lack of choices within the 4G family of phones, however thats changing rather quickly. The last component that may be causing 3G to maintain its lead on 4G, is the sales people could be being advised to sell the 3G devices and get them out of the inventory. Just a few thoughts from a person who is somewhat familiar with the industry.

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    1. Kevin Fitchard Tuesday, January 24, 2012

      Hi JHP, All good points, and I agree with all of them. It will take a while for Verizon to move even 50% of its customer base to LTE, at which point I think its premium pricing model will work fine.

      The problem though is Verizon is now charging customers for that premium service before most of them actually receive it. VZ still delivers on the reliability part, but it seems you need more than just reliability if you’re charging a 50% premium over your biggest competitor who also happens to be running a faster network.

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    2. Coverage shouldn’t be a factor when deciding between a 3g and a 4g phone for the simple fact that everywhere that a 3g phone gets 3g a 4g phone also gets 3g and 4g if its avalible and ur also kinda future proofing by being ready when their city gets 4g

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  2. @Kevin,

    I think Fran Shammo was likely referring to “early adopters” on the Verizon 4G LTE network as the ones driving its’ adoption. These same early adopters tend to be influencers as products/services go mainstream in usage, which likely explains Verizon’s willingness to price their 4G LTE network at a premium.

    To be clear, i’m not shilling for Verizon or Fran Shammo, but I know this pricing strategy works having used it very successfully during my days in packaged software. ;-)

    My $.02.

    Best

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    1. Kevin Fitchard Tuesday, January 24, 2012

      Oh, I agree, Curtis. Loading up the LTE network will take time. The problem is VZ is charging all of its customers an early adopter price, when 90% are using old technology. If 3G-only access was $10 cheaper like it is over at Sprint, then I think the pricing would reflect what they’re offering.

      And no one is excusing you of being a shill for Verizon :) Though people have accused me of that on occassion.

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      1. Kevin Fitchard Tuesday, January 24, 2012

        I meant “accusing” not “excusing” :)

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  3. Kevin, Let’s not forget this faster GSM network is still notoriously not living up to it’s speed claims on many parts of the country. With the spotty coverage, customers are still dipping and languishing in EDGE. To that end, VZ can still rest on it’s laurels of the most reliable 3G claim. As far as the 4G network failures, I know you know new network adoption will have it’s stumbles, 3G experienced the same. Also AT&T needed the 3GB value to have something it can differentiate itself with since they are in the spot they’re in. Lastly, outside of the iPhone sales in Q4, don’t forget holiday sales brought “free” 3G smartphone offers. I think big red is still safe with it’s premium remarks.

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  4. 2.3 million includes hotspots.
    excluding hotspots and focusing only on smartphones, Verizon sold 1.6 million 4g smartphones, making it 20.78% of their 7.7 million smartphones sold.

    BTW, I don’t think the 700,000 hotspot devices sold are part of the 7.7 million.

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