Comments on: The incredible shrinking TV replacement cycle

By: jdoe

jdoe — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 00:19:28 +0000

People are gradually replacing old tvs with flatscreens…the fact that they’re hd is not important as most don’t even use the hd option!…people like the lightweight, compact size and flat screen…no one is replacing a 50-inch flatscreen any faster than grandpa replaced that refrigerator sized color tv in his den…and the whole connected tv thing is going nowhere…just like 3d tv…and I like apps as much as anyone but people get on the phone to interact, people watch tv to relax and not be disturbed so the app
thing is not welcome there for most of us.

By: meta.morph

meta.morph — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 08:18:53 +0000

It is all a question of (hidden) pricing: Once BestBuy et al learn how to bundle TV sets to TV/movie subscriptions and consumers need to pay less for the set, we will see a decrease in the replacement cycle…

By: Ryan Lawler

Ryan Lawler — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 19:34:46 +0000

@Mark – I have to disagree. I think there’s a lot more innovation to be had in the TV space than we’ve seen so far. We’re on the brink of a huge shift in the features and capabilities that are available. People might have upgraded recently just to get a pane of glass capable of HD in the size they want, but I think we’ll soon see them upgrade to take advantage of the software soon available. Remember, it wasn’t too long ago that mobile phones were just a way to call people, and there wasn’t any good reason to upgrade. I think we’ll soon see the same type of paradigm sift take place with smart TVs.

By: Mark

Mark — Sat, 07 Jan 2012 09:43:45 +0000

No, Ryan, it doesn’t. It says that eventually people want to replace all their TVs with digital / HD ones. Once that’s done, they are done. There isn’t a shred of evidence that people want to change out their living room TVs with any great frequency, nor any evidence that the window for replacement is actually decreasing. These market research firms have a bizarre agenda to promote ridiculous notions like “TVs are beginning to be replaced like mobile phones”.

Your TV doesn’t become obsolete due to lacking apps. On some level that was true the day you bought it. Fortunately, we’re all used to having boxed attached to it which are insanely cheap (or free) and can be updated much more easily.

Once someone obtains an HDTV of the desired size in their living room, they are more or less done for a half decade or more — at least as concerns their living room.

By: rpotts

rpotts — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 19:39:32 +0000

I have owned a TV repair company for 27 years. Mr Payne hit the nail on the head. TV’s used to “wear out”, not fail suddenly and unexpectedly. We now see random failure due to rapid deployment (virtually no test time pre- or post- production).
The average repair labor 10 years ago was $250 in home, the average age of a set we repaired was 3-5 years old (even though we honor all warranties), and the consumer would only replace the set if the parts were not available or if the repair cost was >50% of the price of the unit.
Now we have a hard time convincing customers to repair if >30% of new price, because new units are so much “better”. Average labor $160 unadjusted for inflation,
And 80% of the TV’s we work on are <3 years old. We get plenty of phone calls on older sets, but they rarely call.

By: Ryan Lawler

Ryan Lawler — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 16:32:47 +0000

The key argument against is that they haven’t just bought one set over the last 5 years. When 50% have two or more HDTVs, that tells you that the cycle for buying (for those who can) has dramatically decreased.

By: ChrisDPayne

ChrisDPayne — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 15:15:08 +0000

I’d be interested in comparing flat screen HDTV lifespan with the traditional 7 year replacement cycle. I’m sure that part of the reason that prices are reducing is down to the use of cheaper, less resilient components.

If intentional, this ‘planned obselecence’ through reduced undoubtedly keeps market buoyant.

Thoughts?

By: Gary

Gary — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 12:13:12 +0000

Surely if people replace there TV every 7 or 8 years then at any given time at least half the population would have been expected to have replaced their TV in the last 4 years. Which is in line with the stats presented. There is absolutely no evidence in a change in buying habits.

All these people you have bought a new TV in the last couple of years still are unlikely to upgrade in the next 5 years.

By: PXLated

PXLated — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 07:00:05 +0000

Am betting you’re right.
Just because two new technologies came along (Digital & HD) and caused a buy spree doesn’t mean a buying trend has been established.

By: paul martin

paul martin — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 06:24:41 +0000

I blame Microsoft I have to replace my family’s HD Laptop every year at least. But I note that people keep their expensive ipads longer ..