Book on fire
Of all the markets I’ve followed in my decade-plus as a consumer analyst, I’ve never seen a market changing faster than the digital publishing market of today, where the sudden love of e-books has created a “digital backdraft” that has set the entire publishing industry value chain aflame.
In a report I just published for GigaOM Pro, (subscription required) I analyze this rapid disruption by outlining six areas in which market players are leveraging large-scale shifts to advance their competitive positioning, all of which will, over time, result in a U.S. e-book marketplace that exceeds $5 billion by 2016 (growing from just under $2 billion in 2011).
So what are these areas of disruption? Below, I outline three:
The Collapse of Distribution
In traditional book distribution, retailer/storefront are not one and the same as book distribution. In digital publishing, Byzantine distribution chains simply collapse. While publishers still exert enough market influence through control of the lion’s share of digital publishing rights (for now) of many popular authors to force Amazon and others to accept agency pricing, over time, this influence will wane, particularly as authors themselves increasingly choose to publish through those places that own the customer, which will be, in the end, the big storefronts.
Book Discovery Goes Social
Until about just over a decade ago, finding a good book for most meant either a word of mouth recommendation from a friend or librarian, or reading what preordained “tastemakers” from the New York Times or Oprah told you to read. But starting in the ’90s, both algorithmic and crowdsourced recommendations became the new bestseller list, and today, we’re back to word of mouth, only in the form of social recommendation. Whether readers are learning about new books from friends on general-purpose social networks like Facebook or through reading-centric networks like Goodreads, social recommendation is becoming increasingly important in the age of e-books, and this leaves the door open for companies that can leverage this disruption shift into a competitive opening to monetize e-book content.
Multi-platform/Multi-screen Access
While many in the book industry dismiss lessons learned from other types of entertainment by saying “books are books,” there’s no doubt all types of digital content are becoming increasingly multi-screen. In other words, with apps and browser-centric consumption, consumers expect on-demand access to their libraries of music, movies and, yes, books anywhere at anytime. Those players that make usage “friction” lowest will continue to have a competitive advantage as more consumers move from the paper to the digital book.
These shifts are resulting in the biggest change in publishing since the time of Gutenberg. Some publishers are adapting as fast as they can, while others sit idly by while the book industry burns. This is the face of true disruption: It can be ugly, but also create massive opportunity for those that move fast.
To read about the other areas of competitive disruption as well as see my e-book forecast for revenues, e-book consumers and e-book units, see my new report at GigaOM Pro.
Image courtesy of Flickr user J. Ronald Lee
A post on e-books, in which I use incendiary language: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/r5Ccihsg
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/txPiAFqn @amarchugg #news
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/RsIjXFsX @amarchugg #news
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/NCsp31sk
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns: Book on fire
Of all the markets I’ve followed in… http://t.co/iJTWCVxX
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns: Book on fire
Of all the markets I’ve followed in… http://t.co/UmfU7CdJ
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns: Book on fire
Of all the markets I’ve followed in… http://t.co/XDiqpGzo
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns: Book on fire
Of all the markets I’ve followed in… http://t.co/WBWMyJFK
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/BthsNNNF
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns: Book on fire
Of all the markets I’ve followed in… http://t.co/cGi74QWz
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/UoQBg7vj
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns: Book on fire
Of all the markets I’ve followed in… http://t.co/IflvhOgc
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/xzbLFyLX
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/nOYoatJT
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/cGBqUllO
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/yKxKxeu3
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/p4zlsrOo
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/LohGOOx6
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/O0GNhTwY
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/j39s6nW2
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns: Book on fire
Of all the markets I’ve followed in… http://t.co/GSwOVca3
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/rpQRGXys
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns: Book on fire
Of all the markets I’ve followed in… http://t.co/vc2kp4V3
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns: Book on fire
Of all the markets I’ve followed in… http://t.co/EEmSXGzc
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns: Book on fire
Of all the markets I’ve… http://t.co/YUDTz6Qx Via. GigaOM
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/YRJxARJd
RT @gigaom: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/nOYoatJT
RT @gigaom: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/nOYoatJT
RT @gigaom: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/nOYoatJT
RT @gigaom: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/nOYoatJT
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/PNVFhOgH [from @michaelwolf]
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/PNVFhOgH [from @michaelwolf]
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/1kbEA1GX via Michael Wolf
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/1kbEA1GX via Michael Wolf
RT @gigaom: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/nOYoatJT
“@gigaom: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/vs5oaiXk” i am not sure are they reaching their limit?
“@gigaom: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/vs5oaiXk” i am not sure are they reaching their limit?
RT @gigaom: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/nOYoatJT
RT @gigaom: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/nOYoatJT
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/OjhcK8AU
gigaom: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/uI8XIDuL
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/C02MTPiv
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/rVavN69X RT @gigaom
RT @gigaom: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/nOYoatJT
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns: I’ve never seen an industry change faster than d… http://t.co/tuiQdyBe
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns – GigaOm http://t.co/jT3kwfUz
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/lc9jWKyZ
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/oZziVQWv
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/NBXDAkma
@earth2tech: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/bYt4e73N
RT @gigaom: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/nOYoatJT
RT @gigaom: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/nOYoatJT
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns: 2, 2011, 10:00am PT No Comments Of all the marke… http://t.co/VhjG63JJ
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns: Book on fire Of all the… http://t.co/oD2zPS0w
[210] E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns
http://t.co/teoRFnKf
#tech #news E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/nFWVY55Z
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/vK53MilP
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/5QqRY0mi
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/9zvGaLkx via @gigaom
Great post Michael! I’d love to expand on this statement:
“social recommendation is becoming increasingly important in the age of e-books”
This is absolutely true – Goodreads was founded on the belief that recommendations from friends are the best way to find good books. And our upcoming launch on Facebook Timeline will only accelerate that.
But there is a massive hole in social recommendations – your friends aren’t always reading things you might be interested in! We have been working on filling that hole in two ways.
First by letting the Goodreads community help – letting you connect with other like minded readers who are reading the things you are interested in. For instance, if you like Science Fiction, we have tons of groups for you.
And secondly by crowdsourcing really good recommendations and book discovery using the interest graph of 240 million books that Goodreads members have added. Our recommendation engine is only a few months old, but has increased discovery by millions of books a month.
I
Thanks for the insight Otis. As a Goodreads user, I do see an opportunity here with e-books for you as well.
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns – GigaOm http://t.co/8DCUSqKc
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns — http://t.co/pQM0XNUU
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/UlCLzlFu
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/QHjgyYWF
E-Book market forecast to hit $5.2 Billion as the book industry burns. http://t.co/ivK1wtwZ
Fantastic post. Your point on The Collapse of Distribution is spot on. To take it one step further – In the coming disruption of the “Traditional Book Publishing Market” the middle functions between creators and consumers is where the greatest evaporation will take place. At the same time, there will be robust opportunities for providing simple to use tools and services that optimize the publishing pathway.
Thanks for a great article
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/Yl5iQvIH #in
Great Post! I really appreciate how you frame the issues so concisely. I wanted to follow up on the The Collapse of Distribution.
It’s the middle that will be the first fall out of the traditional publishing system. As the system reorganizes itself, there will be robust opportunties as new ‘Publishing Networks’ emerges and asserts themselves.
Look for bottlenecks in the production pipeline and provide simple to use solutions –
Look what Test Flight did for the problem of submitting an App to iTunes.
@Sean – I think the app model is a fair one to look at for where this is going. It’s easy to make a choice as an e-book publisher which storefronts to go to, but these publishers still have to navigate the various backends of the big three to five storefronts. Making that process easier is a ripe area for innovation.
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/7r8URVU4
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/L7F9UgG2
Here’s my e-book forecast post for @GigaOM: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/r5Ccihsg
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns [GigaOM] http://t.co/Be1u75nR
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns — Tech News and Analysis – http://t.co/OfvGa9Gb
RT @lbraun2000: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns — Tech News and Analysis – http://t.co/OfvGa9Gb
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/M6mplZRK
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/esm298oo
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/LDHSAqvr
RT @gigaom: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/nOYoatJT
RT @dianewordsmith: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/LDHSAqvr
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/1NF3fpdu via @editions
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns …: I’ve never seen an industry change faster th… http://t.co/qpOnR8ru
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns …: I’ve never seen an industry change faster th… http://t.co/ChbmLlo7
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/UrkYMWFs
RT @xpectro: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/UrkYMWFs
RT @gigaom: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/JFncqIaT
RT @xpectro: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/UrkYMWFs
RT @MediaReDEF: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/pFk3RpPx /via @MediaReDEF
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/cAzgNL8f via @gigaom @SocialMedialy
RT @MediaReDEF: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/pFk3RpPx /via @MediaReDEF
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/1oG4Kti6
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/zoOWmayq
More proof that digital is the future: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/SsMF7LbC
RT @xpectro: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/UrkYMWFs
RT @xpectro: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/UrkYMWFs
GigaOm continues great coverage on future of book distribution/e-books. http://t.co/8RP4CNcp #row80
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/bW5PSyER
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/WiadAZ4y
“#eBook market forecast to hit $5.2B as the #book industry burns.” By @MichaelWolf at @GigaOM http://t.co/DN0m87O2 #
Ebook market to cross $5 billion in five years. (I say it’ll be sooner.) http://t.co/lItF8ikF
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns. Report on industry disruption.
http://t.co/UEzhIMgP
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/zq1myMLV
Ebook market forecast to hit $5.2 bn as the book industry burns http://t.co/buqED3tN via @gigaom #publishing
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/nFImTrPK via @copestoneteam
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/E67fjZj8 via @copestoneteam
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/eKL0nLNX via @copestoneteam
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/m6qPHItt
“In #digital #publishing, Byzantine distribution chains simply collapse.” @MichaelWolf at @GigaOM http://t.co/qyOBCga8 #amwriting #ebooks
RT @Porter_Anderson: “#eBook market forecast to hit $5.2B as the #book industry burns.” By @MichaelWolf at @GigaOM http://t.co/DN0m87O2 #
RT @Porter_Anderson: “#eBook market forecast to hit $5.2B as the #book industry burns.” By @MichaelWolf at @GigaOM http://t.co/DN0m87O2 #
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/oBLr25zo
Das wel duidelijk,e-books,dat wordt niks….E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/lUeOEyHn
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/ip7dUFg9
RT @MediaReDEF: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/lUeOEyHn
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns — Tech News and Analysis http://t.co/MPRWpMLF
RT @BrianHanley1: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns — Tech News and Analysis http://t.co/MPRWpMLF
RT @BrianHanley1: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns — Tech News and Analysis http://t.co/MPRWpMLF
Happened fast! RT @BrianHanley1: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns—Tech News and Analysis http://t.co/M3qT9rT9
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns: Book on fire
Of all the markets I’ve followed in… http://t.co/c1z7f4Z2
RT @BrianHanley1: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns — Tech News and Analysis http://t.co/MPRWpMLF
RT @BrianHanley1: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns — Tech News and Analysis http://t.co/MPRWpMLF
Wow! MT@CindyFowler: Happened fast! RT @BrianHanley1: E-book market to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/zkW4ayxx
RT @BrianHanley1: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns — Tech News and Analysis http://t.co/leKMgAd2
I think some of this is the publishers forgot they wee selling stories, not piles of paper bound in card. However DRM is the biggest pain factor in modern ebooks.. I have many ePub books I have bought over the years, and I can still read them on all my devices. This can’t be said for kindle, which until amazon released the reader in chrome html5 couldn’t be read in any Linux OS. But if amazon ever stop supporting it, or I don’t approve their terms and conditions, all those books disappear.
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns — Tech News and Analysis http://t.co/nYnXoWnu
RT @gigaom: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/nOYoatJT
@jafurtado Hi Jose – did you see my forecast post? http://t.co/r5Ccihsg
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns, By Michael Wolf (@michaelwolf)/ GigaOm http://t.co/NSFpl4zk Thx Michael!
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/ItA36KU2
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns — Tech News and Analysis http://t.co/bz7KjT5H
RT @BrianHanley1: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns — Tech News and Analysis http://t.co/MPRWpMLF
RT @BrianHanley1: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns — Tech News and Analysis http://t.co/MPRWpMLF
RT @BrianHanley1: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns — Tech News and Analysis http://t.co/MPRWpMLF
“@jafurtado: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns, By Michael Wolf http://t.co/Z3433qWL Thx Michael!”
Dingue ! http://t.co/1P90M3bL
“@jppastor: “@jafurtado: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns, By Michael Wolf http://t.co/H5c8e1LT Thx Michael!””
#Publishing: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/ybrzZFzr
RT @40kBooks: #Publishing: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/ybrzZFzr
RT @40kBooks: #Publishing: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/ybrzZFzr
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/FEX3ieqO via @zite
RT @40kBooks: #Publishing: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/ybrzZFzr
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/6Ce4nME7
Ebook market forecast to hit $5.2B as book industry burns http://t.co/ubAOsEgW
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RT @40kBooks: #Publishing: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/ybrzZFzr
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/INVHacx3
RT @kubasta_lab: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/INVHacx3
RT @gigaom: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/JJ1OXVdi
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns — Tech News and Analysis: http://t.co/TjYFU5C6
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/CfEKNafb #mobileyouth
RT @40kBooks: #Publishing: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/7uJbtQ9d
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/KrJSKlOn
RT @40kBooks: #Publishing: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/ybrzZFzr
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/WGgAMAHD
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns — Tech News and Analysis http://t.co/PIce5MUr
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/xroEwV0K
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns (via @GigaOM) http://t.co/d9Vzfv9h
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/YDGs2cxY
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/4TFpX6SN
RT @gigaom: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/nOYoatJT
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/qiQdYf4r
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Times R changin’ RT @taoiseach: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/UNUrIJfY
“@taoiseach: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/kcN2hMts” #fb
RT @taoiseach: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/tTPpF3EE
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/nGbxYsmq
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns http://t.co/bIZakNxd
RT @CopestoneTeam: Ebook market forecast to hit $5.2 bn as the book industry burns http://t.co/buqED3tN via @gigaom #publishing
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns — Tech News and Analysis http://t.co/S3TP1ONZ
E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns — Tech News and Analysis http://t.co/EKBbj6fe
RT @contextnet: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns — Tech News and Analysis http://t.co/W6XWWAW6
RT @ContextNet: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns — Tech News and Analysis http://t.co/EKBbj6fe
RT @ContextNet: E-book market forecast to hit $5.2B as the book industry burns — Tech News and Analysis http://t.co/EKBbj6fe
did you really have to put that picture?
did you think maybe to show a little common sense?
In his 1821 play, Almansor, the German writer Heinrich Heine— referring to the burning of the Muslim holy book,
the Qur’an, during the Spanish Inquisition — wrote,
“Where they burn books, so too will they in the end
burn human beings.”
Over a century later, Heine’s own books were among the thousands of volumes that were torched by the Nazis
in Berlin’s Opernplatz
…so just a bit of common sense, not much