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Summary:

Nokia’s sales of Windows Phone handsets aren’t impressing at least one analyst, who has drastically cut quarterly estimates from 2 million to 500,000 sales. With the two-horse race between Google Android and Apple iOS, it’s tough for Nokia to gain traction, even with outstanding hardware.

Lumia feature

Nokia’s sales of Windows Phone handsets aren’t impressing at least one analyst, who has drastically cut estimates, says Forbes. Instead of 2 million sales for this quarter, Pacific Crest analyst James Faucette is dropping expectations down to just 500,000 units. This follows a report last Friday from Bernstein Research analyst Pierre Ferragu, who noted that Google Trends data suggests as much “buzz” for the Nokia Lumia 800 as the company’s N8 Symbian phone.

Nokia’s Lumia 710 and 800 phones have only been available in limited markets for about a month. The company just began transitioning away from its Symbian operating system, and these are the first handsets powered by Microsoft’s Windows Phone platform. As a result, it could take time for Nokia sales to start ramping up. The timing is right though; Microsoft recently improved its mobile platform with the Mango software update, which I find to be impressive.

Equally impressive is the hardware Nokia paired with Windows Phones 7.5. The new Lumia 800 may be one of the nicest, most well-designed smartphones I’ve ever held. I’ll have a full review of the phone shortly, but suffice it say: It’s the best Windows Phone I’ve used yet. But maybe that’s part of the problem.

Consumers have essentially witnessed a two-horse smartphone race since 2008, and Microsoft wasn’t one of those horses. Google Android and Apple iOS phones have taken the lion’s share of market growth, while phones running on Palm, BlackBerry and Symbian have either lost ground or been treading water. It’s going to take time for any Microsoft-powered handset to build momentum, even if the software and platform ecosystem are improving.

The other factor here is Nokia’s implementation of a Windows Phone. As I mentioned, the hardware is well done. But there are very few software advantages gained from a Nokia Windows Phone over one from LG, Samsung or HTC. Nokia devices do come with Nokia Drive — a great free navigation app — and Music Mix, but little else in the way of differentiation.

Regardless of Lumia sales, Nokia has to keep pushing the platform in ways its peers aren’t. Microsoft may grab the third spot in the smartphone hierarchy, but unless it continues to grab the attention of consumers, that No. 3 slot may end up being insignificant.

  1. **** Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed.: Nokia’s sales of Windows Phone handsets aren’t impress… http://t.co/4mXlpXgM

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  2. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/cYiiTbMi

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  3. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed.: Nokia’s sales of Windows Phone handsets aren’t impressing a… http://t.co/aStxBE86

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  4. [GigaOM] Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed.: Nokia’s sales of Windows Phone handsets aren’t imp… http://t.co/DWE33rdT

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  5. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/RXasSUrr

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  6. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/lAM6TvDY

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  7. [TechResearch] Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed.: Nokia’s sales of Windows Phone handsets … http://t.co/z8UN0b5h #ID

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  8. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/IA65Gkmv #business

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  9. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/UWmVslc1 @amarchugg #news

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  10. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/2jSFauEY @amarchugg #news

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  11. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed.: Nokia’s sales of Windows Phone handsets aren’t impressing a… http://t.co/WFi5p75G

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  12. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/xbuexyMP

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  13. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed.: Nokia’s sales of Windows Phone handsets aren’t impressing a… http://t.co/8JRft2vB

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  14. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed.: Nokia’s sales of Windows Phone handsets aren’t impressing a… http://t.co/k4ajg2Jd

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  15. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed.: Nokia’s sales of Windows Phone handsets aren’t impressing a… http://t.co/gTl5lGQP

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  16. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed.: Nokia’s sales of Windows Phone handsets aren’t impressing a… http://t.co/hZb51QT2

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  17. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed.: Nokia’s sales of Windows Phone handsets aren’t impressing a… http://t.co/moHTXrpW

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  18. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/EDN5NKZt (via @gigaom)

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  19. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed.: Nokia’s sales of Windows Phone handsets aren’t impressing a… http://t.co/zK2eTTsE

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  20. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed.: Nokia’s sales of Windows Phone handsets aren’t impressing a… http://t.co/5OqkUKW7

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  21. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed.: Nokia’s sales of Windows Phone handsets aren’t impressing a… http://t.co/flZbDbNU

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  22. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/jtmv6Ukw

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  23. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/Q5qEYTIn

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  24. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/7FEDJx9Y

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  25. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/G8pdmrsY

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  26. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/sc8HYFyk

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  27. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/AEvqrBbS

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  28. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/xoBD4FfR

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  29. Uh oh. #Nokia #Windows_Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/RAEx2nue @om #mobile

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  30. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/2N5xCwjq

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  31. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/o11irn7P #BYOD

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  32. RT @gigaom: Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/7FEDJx9Y

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  33. RT @gigaom: Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/7FEDJx9Y

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  34. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed.: Nokia’s sales of Windows Phone handsets aren’t impressing a… http://t.co/GGhF0QdL

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  35. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/8Id8vR0n If Nokia and MSFT can’t succeed with Winmob they are both toast

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  36. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/8Id8vR0n If Nokia and MSFT can’t succeed with Winmob they are both toast

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  37. Las estimaciones de ventas de Nokia con Windows Phone se redujeron radicalmente. http://t.co/l1qduBsC

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  38. Las estimaciones de ventas de Nokia con Windows Phone se redujeron radicalmente. http://t.co/l1qduBsC

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  39. gigaom: Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/1GhGkciI

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  40. RT @gigaom: Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/7FEDJx9Y

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  41. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/26MQH63V

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  42. RT @filos: Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/26MQH63V

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  43. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/pfZoEodB

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  44. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/X3LSIHG1

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  45. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/hLbSGR7W

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  46. http://t.co/8F7L0SRR #Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. #WP7 #windowsphone

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  47. I have debated and debated getting an HTC Trophy simply for the Windows Phone 7 interface. It’s so fresh and pleasing to the eye. Alas, I live 90 miles from a VZW store so I relay on information like this to make choices.

    Sad to see the Nokia’s not selling well, but with Android and iOS dominating, I can’t say I’m surprised.

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    1. There is no signs of Nokia selling anything as well. The analyst (above) thinks “because of this and because of that Lumia SHOULD NOT SELL WELL. That kind of thinking is not very clever and it is not an messure of anything except the “anlaysts” private expectations. If the same was applied to iPhone once Apple would not have sold one single phone.

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  48. RT @jkOnTheRun: Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/sc8HYFyk

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  49. RT @jkOnTheRun: Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/sc8HYFyk

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  50. Meh. RT @jkOnTheRun: Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/ryBPoU2G

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  51. My girlfriend got one of these the other the day and (anecdotally as it may be) the guy in the shop said they’d been selling loads of them. Now this might just be because she got it on the first day and sales have dropped now but I think at least in the markets it has been sold in it will do well.

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    1. “I think at least in the markets it has been sold in it will do well.” I mean in the areas it is being marketed in it will do really well. There is a media blitz over here in the UK with billboards, tv and newspaper ads everywhere

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  52. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/IXsGu5Lw

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  53. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/0NkznyTQ Anyone see a report that has hi expectations for Windows phones?

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  54. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/VIYPeRY6

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  55. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed.: Nokia’s sales of Windows Phone handsets aren’t impressing a… http://t.co/eIM6GXCz

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  56. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/Fm1uNZd2

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  57. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/tkRhi8PR via Kevin C. Tofel

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  58. RT @gigaom: Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/7FEDJx9Y

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  59. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. – Nokia’s sales of Windows Phone handsets aren’t impressing at l… http://t.co/A15I4S6W

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  60. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. – Nokia’s sales of Windows Phone handsets aren’t impressing at l… http://t.co/WZVvMzNM

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  61. The Nokia handsets aren’t even available yet in the three largest mobile markets — the USA, China and Japan. Of course they’re not going to set sales records — general availability isn’t for several months yet.

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  62. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/yovoYopI

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  63. Nokia Lumia verkauft sich offenbar schlechter als gedacht. Aktienkurs heute: -9 % http://t.co/JkNr7HyR

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  64. was zu erwarten war RT @HolgerSchmidt Nokia Lumia verkauft sich offenbar schlechter als gedacht. Aktienkurs heute: -9 % http://t.co/KLA3Bcqj

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  65. #Nokia #Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/bjibr63f

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  66. “Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed” http://t.co/OyO2nQAF No surprise. Nokia absent from US market, busy abusing current customers.

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  67. RT @HolgerSchmidt: Nokia Lumia verkauft sich offenbar schlechter als gedacht. Aktienkurs heute: -9 % http://t.co/JkNr7HyR

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  68. No surprise here. Nokia phones are almost entirely absent from the U.S. Nokia has chosen not to release the Lumia 800 in the States. Plus, Nokia is practically going out of its way to abuse it’s U.S. customers (most of whom paid full-freight for an unlocked phone, only to find they’re at the distal end of the line for updates). Nokia’s customer service, in general, is awful.

    That said, Nokia’s Windows Phone customers will finally get stuff like a Kindle reader and some other apps which apparently will never be available to Symbian^3. Then again, the message to Nokia’s current owners of phones such as the N8 is pretty much, “Ha, suckers, we have your money and our only interest in you is if we can get you to buy another handset from us.”

    Nokia created this mess. Now Nokia gets to live with it.

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    1. “Ha, suckers, we have your money and our only interest in you is if we can get you to buy another handset from us”

      In fairness that’s pretty much what every phone manufacturer does.

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  69. Seems a bit previous given that the Nokia 800 has only been on sale for just over a week in stores although it has been on pre-order for a few more weeks.

    I think it will take a while for Nokia to come back round again and the key will be happy customers evangelising to their iPhone and Android owning friends about the new phones. If that happens then everything is possible.

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  70. RT @HolgerSchmidt Nokia Lumia verkauft sich offenbar schlechter als gedacht. Aktienkurs heute: -9 % http://t.co/sp30TggB

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  71. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed – http://t.co/2w902BI3 – [From 2 Million to 500k this quarter, Come on Nokia!]

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  72. RT @gigaom: Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/iSX9LWUJ

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  73. RT @gigaom: Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/7FEDJx9Y

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  74. RT @gigaom: Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/JwZHu7lN

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  75. RT @gigaom: Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/7FEDJx9Y

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  76. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/br77iGEI If you’re not in a hot mess as Google, you’re not innovative enough

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  77. But we can’t give up, we have to keep fighting! Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/sLaMa0Hq

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  78. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/KUQe6eX3

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  79. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/OL1BYewZ #li

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  80. I think that the question Nokia has to answer as a company is its focus on a single strategy. How is Samsung, for example, able to produce as many device profile/OS combinations as it does?

    This was an enormous gamble…

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  81. Personally, I think it’s too early to call, but news of cut sales estimates won’t help #Nokia one bit. http://t.co/4QKmJmfo

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  82. not surprised. “@gigaom: Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/gdxpBHDO”

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  83. RT @gigaom: Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/7FEDJx9Y

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  84. RT @gigaom: Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/7FEDJx9Y

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  85. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/06rDaIDR via @zite

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  86. RT @HolgerSchmidt: Nokia Lumia verkauft sich offenbar schlechter als gedacht. Aktienkurs heute: -9 % http://t.co/JkNr7HyR

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  87. Sometimes late is worse than never http://t.co/0af5ayms

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  88. Hard times for these two tech-veterans – “Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed.” http://t.co/ejZXoWt7

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  89. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/Xn6jaeYY

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  90. With the way the android market is exploding,no wonder!Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/ub6CeU1C

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  91. Folks are actuaLly surprised by this? RT @gigaom: Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/Ocek3QOm

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  92. RT @HolgerSchmidt: Nokia Lumia verkauft sich offenbar schlechter als gedacht. Aktienkurs heute: -9 % http://t.co/FEy7qIfM

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  93. Nokia should sue Forbes, the 800 has only been out for a week and this analyst make specious statements.

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  94. Ouch. RT @gigaom: Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/cHy5I9ko HT @PaulBaldovin

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  95. Izskatās, ka Nokia un Microsoft, tomēr nebūs nekāds dreamteam: http://t.co/KFSJk6Z4

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  96. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed.: Nokia’s sales of Windows Phone handsets aren’t impressing a… http://t.co/EUavIlOW

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  97. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed http://t.co/aohcB7YK -would you consider buying this phone?

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  98. RT @CWmobil: RT @HolgerSchmidt: Nokia Lumia verkauft sich offenbar schlechter als gedacht. Aktienkurs heute: -9 % http://t.co/FEy7qIfM

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  99. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. – http://t.co/EGwuvvME

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  100. #Nokia #WindowsPhone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/PTAmiIED

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  101. Here is what some smart MBA kid wrote in Minnesota about big failure of Nokia and Microsoft. Spot on.
    http://blogs.stthomas.edu/opusmagnum/2011/10/14/microthinking-from-microsoft-lost-brand-opportunity-with-windows-phone/

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    1. Great article, Glenn. Thanks for sharing it!

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    2. I think Microsoft has deliberately chosen the name Windows Phone to help rehabilitate the Windows brand. Sure it may negatively affect initial sales of the phone but MS are playing the long game and think most people who use a Windows Phone will have a positive opinion about it and want to use more Microsoft and Windows products.

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    3. They already tried that approach with Zune – still didn’t work. I didn’t own one but every review said they were great, didn’t matter. I think the difference is they were too late for a music player, most people were moving towards having music on their phone.

      I think if Windows 8 can put a dent in iPad on tablets it will come back down from the other direction.

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  102. RT @wimbet: Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/KUQe6eX3

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  103. Is Google Plus going to unseat Facebook? Did Zune make a dent in iPod? How’s Bing doing against Google?

    As you noted, it’s been a two horse race and the race is already over. Windows Phone must leapfrog the others in some way to even make the radar. Not happening.

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    1. Did Android and the iPhone unseat Symbian and RIM?

      Well, yes, they did.

      I think it’s way to early to call it. Remember the first Android phone, the HTC Dream, was hailed as a failure because it took six months to sell a million units.

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  104. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/CjukkwYe

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  105. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/2ko8RHg7

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  106. RT @gigaom: Uh oh. #Nokia #Windows_Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/LscxAg8g

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  107. Uh oh. Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. http://t.co/ofU73B78

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  108. The phones have been available for a WEEK, not a month.

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  109. Auw. Verwachtingen Nokia Lumia naar beneden bijgesteld. http://t.co/oAh82mgI

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  110. Lumia is an outdated phone with single core processor and no front cam for video chats. Who would really want them in 2011 and beyond?

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  111. insigthful post on #nokia’s #windowsphone. a third mobile OS is like a car’s 5th wheel. http://t.co/eZuItDUQ @gigaom

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  112. Nokia has forgotten what made them famous and great in the first place. Their “Hardware” was the only cell phones that worked properly and reliably gave excellent service on GSM nwtworks! They blew all that with their chasing CDMA and Chinese commodity manufacturing and pricing. Customers remember buying junk when they need and desire reliability! Like previous poster said: “They made this mess they got themselves into, now they must live with it!”

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  113. NOK might want to rethink the WP only strategy and adopt an HTC-ish model. http://t.co/G39ENqsQ

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  114. A non surprising news on MS and Nokia. Uh oh. #Nokia Windows Phone sales estimates slashed. — Mobile Technology News http://t.co/eZuItDUQ

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  115. Sorry, who is James Faucette and who is Pacific Crest?

    Never heard of ‘em.

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  116. #Nokia #WindowsPhone sales estimates slashed. – http://t.co/HFAiu0QU

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  117. i am supporting windows phone and nokia all the way!

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