Comments on: Two (more) signs that our economy is in trouble

By: Jack Rivkin

Jack Rivkin — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 14:47:55 +0000

These are coincident indicators, not predictive. We know that the economy has been slow. Every CEO on their earnings call for the quarter will cut their outlook. They don’t get any credit for being bullish. All eyes are on Europe. See http://blog.contracarbon.com , “A Brief Look at the World…”

By: Dan

Dan — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 09:56:46 +0000

KenG
We still have yet to pay China for the Iraqi war, remember they financed it as it was kept “Off budget”. I don’t think China will be in much of a mood to lend us more.
Further, does this mean Wall street needs another bailout? This time it may be a tad more difficult to push through given that Wall Street is “Occupied”
BTW, Om, why no coverage of the Wall Street protests? I think it’s a big story kind of Vietnam protests meet Facebook and Ipad, I am sure there is an interesting tech angle there. They’ve appeared on Dailyshow so it must be mainstream!

By: Vinay Rao

Vinay Rao — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 05:57:37 +0000

May more digital (software) shipping than hard goods? Of course if there’s a lot of digital spend via ads to promote hard goods, then the economy is really in a mess.

By: KenG

KenG — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 21:37:56 +0000

I get the feeling you might be kidding, but seeing how China doesn’t hold us accountable for our deficit (budget and trade) ways by devaluing the dollar, we should keep doing what you suggest. If they’re not going to penalize us for over-consuming, and they make it impossible for us to compete, then let’s keep on taking their cheap loans.

By: John Kneeland

John Kneeland — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 21:26:02 +0000

We should obviously borrow more money from China and spend it.

By: Alexander Ainslie

Alexander Ainslie — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 20:11:49 +0000

There is a 3rd and very reliable indicator: bulk cement flows down significantly.

By: Peter Mullen

Peter Mullen — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 20:02:21 +0000

Incomplete post. Both are ‘coincident’ indicators and give a snapshot of current economic activity (not leading or lagging). Both FedEx and UPS had record Q3/Q4 2010 activity from an especially strong Christmas, so trending downward for a quarter or two is not alarming. Both companies expecting tempered growth toward the end of this year, which is not demonstrated, nor can it be extrapolated in your graph. A decline in power demand is also not alarming for seasonal factors, temps getting cooler (normally happens in the fall) and summer driving season is over. This post is unnecessarily alarmist. Just don’t agree.

By: Bill Richards

Bill Richards — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 19:50:12 +0000

Interesting charts, but the power demand should include the actual historical gdp trend line for comparison.

By: Cooldeep

Cooldeep — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 19:30:38 +0000

Looks like it will pick up in Q4