12 Comments

Summary:

A new consumer survey found that Apple has slightly widened its preference lead among smartphone owners preparing to buy a handset in the next three months. It shows that expanded distribution is helping the iPhone sell and become more of an option for more consumers.

iphone4-new-feature

Apple, as many a commenter to our blog has pointed out, isn’t interested in market share so much as profits. But it’s finding increasingly that it might not have to settle for just one as it expands distribution, adds more improvements to its platform and looks at lower price points.

A new ChangeWave consumer survey found Apple has slightly widened its preference lead among smartphone owners preparing to buy a handset in the next three months. The survey of 4,163 consumers found 46 percent of smartphone consumers in June preferred to buy an iPhone, up slightly from 44 percent in March. Interest in Android also inched up from 31 percent in March to 32 percent in June. But it’s a sign that the iPhone could be headed for strong sales in the second half of the year as the next iPhone model launches.

Prior to this year, consumer preference for Apple was basically tied with Android: 36 percent for iOS to 35 percent for Android in December and 38 percent to 37 percent in September. What’s changed? Apple started offering the iPhone on Verizon Wireless  in February, basically doubling distribution for the handset in the U.S. That has helped spur on the iPhone and apparently slowed the rise of Android, as we’ve pointed out. And as ChangeWave notes, it has also hurt Motorola, who had relied a lot on Verizon in the past and whose consumer preference is now down by 4 points to 8 percent.

The iPhone still has runway ahead, especially if it continues to expand to more carriers and perhaps offers cheaper models. The iPhone has been outsold by Android over the last year even though it consistently has been preferred over Android by smartphone buyers in ChangeWave surveys. Now that it’s more widely available, more consumers are able to buy the device and more are also signaling their intent to do so. With fewer carrier restrictions, we may see a bigger lift as this preference lead translates into bigger sales, especially if Apple announces a deal with Sprint or T-Mobile.

Now, users can say one thing, but do something else when it comes down to buying. Android can be a very appealing choice when it’s being shown off by a sales person. Numerous models at cheaper price points can also help convince users to go with Android. That’s why Apple’s upcoming iOS 5 improvements are also a boost because they’re addressing some nagging issues like notifications, which are holding back the platform compared to rivals. That might have helped inch up consumer intent in June, following Apple’s unveiling of iOS 5 at the Worldwide Developers Conference. And if Apple can follow through on a cheaper iPhone model, something it said it’s interested in, it might further even the playing field.

What’s increasingly clear is that Android and iOS are in a race of their own right now. Preference for Research In Motion’s BlackBerry OS fell to 4 percent in June, the lowest result since ChangeWave began its quarterly surveys in January 2008. In consumer satisfaction among existing users, iOS trumps the field with 70 percent of users very satisfied, compared to 50 percent for Android, 27 percent for Windows OS and 26 percent for BlackBerry. Interestingly, when Windows Phone 7 is broken out apart from the older Windows Mobile platform, its satisfaction rating is 57 percent, ahead of Android. That’s a sign that Microsoft has a strong platform on its hands that will only get better with the upcoming Mango update and Nokia support. It just needs to push harder on selling and marketing its devices.

As I said earlier, Apple doesn’t chase market share just for the sake of it, and is happy to suck down an estimated half of the handset industry’s profits. But with preference so high for iOS, there’s no reason why it can’t grab a bigger share. Will it eclipse Android? Maybe not when you consider all the different Android models available. But Apple has more levers to pull, and it’s showing it can goose sales if it wants to.

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  1. Do we really think that the average consumer understands what the term “operating system” means? Even if we grant that this study is meaningful, aren’t the mobile and tablet markets a wee bit young for this kind of prediction?

    1. Custom Colonel Jack C Monday, July 18, 2011

      You’d be surprised at how many Android fanboys really do think that people buy Android phones because of the better operating system. For people with common sense, this assumption really does look idiotic though.

      1. You’d be surprised at how many iPhone fanboys really do think that people buy iPhones because of the better phone. For people with common sense, this assumption really does look idiotic though.

      2. bmtch – Shouldn’t that be “for people with no sense of style and taste”? ;-)

  2. This chart is odd. Take a look back to June ’09 when the iPhone 4 arrived: only 3% planning to buy an Android phone against 36% for iPhone. And still Android sales in July 09 had been bigger then the sales of the then new iPhone 4. Me: this chart is worthless as a guide to future smartphone market shares.

    1. IPhone 4 came out in June 2010, not ’09. But point taken; preference doesn’t equate with sales.

  3. I think the biggest thing to watch is how all the various lawsuits against android play out now that Apple has scored one victory. That could drastically change the whole ballgame.

  4. pxlated – Think for a second: If you’d never seen either phone, would these really be any different? iPhone kids just want to fit in.
    http://www.tmobileniles.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/iphone4-vs-galaxy-s-head.jpg

  5. As a current Android user, I am very disappointed with my current phone. After a few months, it has become extremely glitchy and slow and constantly force closing. The battery life has become god awful but I guess that’s expected with smartphones nowadays. The app store is also poorly organized. From an overall brand perspective, android delivers a very inconsistent user experience potentially turning off future users as a result of a shoddy experience through a lower tier android phone. At least that’s happening for me. I know there are better android phones out there but i already wasted money buying one crappy android phone. the last thing i want to do is be stuck in another two year contract with more money down the drain.

    1. it’s you Steve Jobs, don’t lie this time, like you usually do

  6. Friendlyonline Monday, July 18, 2011

    My Notes

    Apple, come on now, let’s pick up the pace By Adrienne Hays, June 2 0 1 1.

    I am unloading this G_d awful muther F&%# n iPhone tomorrow. Not one more day of this madness. Goodbye Apple …and you had me at hello. You’re like most of the men I know… u look real good, but up close ur just too costly and flawed and cant stay charged long enough and newer younger mutations keep sprouting up that still can’t do what they say they can. The 4? Better sound quality with a tin can and a piece of string. 5’s coming soon? Yawn. Knock knock. Who’s there? Android. Enough

    June 1 at 1:46am

  7. I predict a lot more iPhone users in the coming several months, especially in the Verizon customer base. I think there are a lot of people like me out there using Android phones because we didn’t want to switch to AT&T, so we jumped on the Droids when they started coming out. Now, 18 months later and not quite yet eligible for an equipment upgrade we’re (those of us with early Droids) waiting for the next gen iPhone to drop and we will be jumping from Android to iPhone.

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