Comments on: Cleantech apocalypse? No, but it’s cyclical

By: yota

yota — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 01:42:12 +0000

It does not matter what What the US is doing, Greentech is now being driven internationally, China and other developing countries are now taking the initiative, and the prices are only going to get cheaper as Solar is already at grid parity in most of these countries with cheap labor for installation and Lower panel prices. We should see prices fall > 50% in the next two years from economies of scale, Increased competition, Incremental Manufacturing efficiencies and disruptive technologies.

http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/07/06/261550/solar-pv-system-cost-reductions/#more-261550

By: Nick Milne-Home, President of 1E

Nick Milne-Home, President of 1E — Tue, 12 Jul 2011 18:02:32 +0000

This was an extremely insightful article. I completely agree that cleantech is by no means on its deathbed and think that it will be on the upswing again in the near future. While policies and funding may be in flux, society has made it clear that its focus on environmental stewardship will continue to grow. However, I would caution that cleantech is not the only way to create a more sustainable society. Regardless of whether the energy is “clean” or “dirty” there are ways to become more efficient now by monitoring and reducing power consumption, and the financial benefits can be significant. At the end of the day, its all about economics.

By: Katie Fehrenbacher

Katie Fehrenbacher — Mon, 11 Jul 2011 23:54:14 +0000

@tesla_x, I don’t think it will be that long. If it takes the U.S. and Europe that long, it will be sewn up by China by 2020.

By: tesla_x

tesla_x — Mon, 11 Jul 2011 21:41:25 +0000

“The harder question, is when.”

YUP.

Well, when will Natural gas next hit $8-10/mmbtu again? That might be one way of answering the question.

I agree, it is somewhat cyclic, but if we have 10 years of nat gas at between $4-6/mmbtu ahead of us, it might be a pretty long wait.

I don’t think we’re going to see any INCREASE in government subsidies either, so solar needs to get significantly cheaper or alternative energy sources have to fundamentally increase in price (in a depressed economy?).

So, I’ll SWAG no sooner than 2020, and we should call it the Solar ICE AGE, since things will just be postponed till the fundamentals ‘thaw out’.