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Summary:

Skype voice traffic is expected to grow by 45 billion minutes in 2010 to more than twice the volume added by all the world’s phone companies combined, according to research firm Telegeography. That means one out of five voice minutes is now going to Skype.

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Skype voice traffic is expected to grow by 45 billion minutes in 2010 to more than twice the volume added by all the world’s phone companies combined, according to research out today from consulting firm Telegeography. In 2009, Skype’s growth exceeded long distance voice-minute growth for the first time, as adoption of the company’s P2P VoIP technology took off. Today’s data shows Skype’s momentum is continuing to grow, which means the small portion of revenue that traditional phone companies bring in for long distance could soon be a relic, like wireline revenue and per-minute domestic calling charges.

According to the Telegeography report, international call traffic grew an estimated 4 percent in 2010, to 413 billion minutes — down from 5 percent growth in 2009, and way off from the 15-percent average growth rate shown during the previous two decades. Meanwhile, Skype has hit 102.5 billion minutes, which means one out of five voice minutes is now going to Skype! Telegeography Analyst Stephan Beckert put it best saying, “Demand for international communications remains strong, but ever more people are discovering that they can communicate without the services of a telco.” Beckert noted in an email to me, however, that the telcos aren’t losing out on huge chunks of change. He wrote:

While Skype is having a clear impact on the international voice business, that this is a small segment for most big telcos. For example, ILD [International Long Distance] accounted for about 1 percent of Verizon’s 2009 revenues, and about 0.7 percent of Telstra’s revenues. That ratio can be higher in some developing countries, but broadband penetration in these countries is also far lower, limiting the near-term impact of Skype on these markets.

Of course, Skype isn’t stopping with taking over the long-distance market; it’s also releasing video-chat services over mobiles and televisions, which could soon change the paradigm for most people, who will swap out voice calls with video chats. Our own GigaOM Pro analysts believe that video chats will account for 30 billion calls by 2015 (sub req’d). The net of all this is Skype has managed to undercut a small, but profitable, business for the phone companies, while also boosting the traffic on their networks, thanks to the higher bandwidth requirements for video calls.

Related content from GigaOM Pro (sub req’d):

  1. Around 1% of revenues, but what percent of profits? Probably more than 3%.

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    1. good point, Paul.

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  2. As more and more small businesses collaborate over the Internet there will be further need for long-distance international calling and that is one of the biggest reasons why Skype has been a hit among big as well as small businesses. It is amazing that people spent 102.5 billion minutes on Skype and this is the power of the Internet, and the reach too. Unfortunately, there are many countries that are constantly trying to restrict the use of Skype among their citizens.

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  3. [...] has become a valuable communication tool for users and companies alike as it takes over the long distance market. But video chat is clearly the future for the company, with more than 40 percent of all Skype chat [...]

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  4. Skype’s growth impressive regardless but does the 102.5 billion minutes include minutes in which one endpoint is Skype and one of the endpoints is PSTN and is therefore counted in both the PSTN carrier minutes (since Skype hands those to its wholesale telco carriers) and Skype’s minutes?

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  5. “Skype voice traffic *is expected* to grow by 45 billion minutes *in 2010* to more than twice the volume added by all the world’s phone companies combined, according to research out today from consulting firm Telegeography.”

    Is this an old article? or is that supposed to be 2011?

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  6. Is it fair to expect to know how did Telegeography estimate these numbers? Skype refers to this report in its own blog, but does not comment on the voracity of these estimates. Are there any other study that corroborates this report? Or am I being discordant?

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  7. [...] voice and video calls of late. Last week, research firm Telegeography reported that Skype users racked up 102.5 billion call minutes over the past year, which means that it accounted for one out of five international call minutes [...]

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