Summary:

Given the myriad technological, political and cultural obstacles, what chance is there that cloud computing or Green IT will be there within the next 12 months, or that something will convince Apple to open up? I’d say “minimal,” but I’m keeping my fingers crossed.

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One thing that strikes me as I read about cloud computing and other infrastructure trends is how fast they get characterized as ubiquitous, or as having reached their pinnacles, without being anywhere near those points. A prime example is a recent article on the rate of server virtualization — despite unending talk about VMware and hypervisors over the past several years, the reality is, educated estimates have virtual workloads still in the minority, and the percentage of virtualized servers even further behind. If we’re not there yet on virtualization, what chance is there that cloud computing or Green IT will be there within the next 12 months, or that something will convince Apple to open up? I’d say “minimal,” but I’m keeping my fingers crossed.

Here are my five predictions for what not to expect in 2011, with a few links apiece to provide context. For the full analysis on why I’m skeptical about these things happening in the coming months, read my full post at GigaOM Pro (subscription required).

1. Ubiquitous cloud adoption

2. Amazon to announce its AWS revenues

3. Apple to tell us anything about its data center operations

4. Legitimate progress on clean IT

5. The demise of Intel

Image courtesy of Flickr user Bicycle Bob.

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