All media bar newspapers and magazines are now on a global advertising growth up-curve toward 2013, when the internet will nearly match the amounts being taken by newspapers around the world, ZenithOptimedia forecasts.
Worldwide circulation decline and online migration is expected to knock two percent from newspapers’ and magazines’ ad income by 2013 – but that means print’s decline rate is now only modest.
Radio will grow 10 percent, outdoor will grow 18 percent, TV and cinema will grow 19 percent. But global online ad spend will be 48 percent more higher, rising from a 14 percent share this year to 17.9 percent in 2013.
For 2010, ZenithOptimedia now expects a better-than-expected 4.9 percent rise in global cross-media spend, leading it to forecast annual growth of between 4.6 and 5.2 percent for each of the next three years.
“Ad expenditure has recovered more rapidly than expected in every region this year, as advertisers regained some of their confidence after an alarming 2009,” according to ZenithOptimedia. “Corporate profitability has rebounded, and many companies have built up large reserves of cash, leaving them in a much more secure position to invest for the future.”
Online, increasing popularity of social sites and video has reversed a downward trend in display sales, which will rise toward 2013.
“The importance of the internet to advertisers is understated by these figures, because as well as creating new opportunities in paid media, it has greatly expanded brands’ abilities to talk to consumers via social media, both ‘owned’ and ‘earned’. These activities can be extremely effective, and many advertisers have embraced them enthusiastically, but most of them will never be picked up in a survey of ad expenditure.”